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Antonio Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Antonio Brown
TB

WR TB

#42 Wide Receiver

122 Projected Points

ADP: 9.6
Bye: 9
Experience: 11 Yr(s)
Age: 33
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 186
40 Time: 4.56

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#42 Wide Receiver

122 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
9.6 70 866 6 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

103.7

DS Projection

122

Consensus

38 other sites
0

High Ceiling

158.6

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

-The Bucs took the risk of signing Antonio Brown after he appeared in only 1 game in 2019 due to a flurry of off-field issues. He inked a 1-year deal worth ~$2 million.

-The contract wasn’t signed until shortly before Week 9. Brown was suspended for the first 8 games for breaking the league’s Personal Conduct Policy.

-Brown played alongside Chris Godwin and Mike Evans over the final 8 games. He played an average of 62.6% of the snaps per week as the WR3.

-Brown tallied 61 targets, 45 catches, 483 yards and 4 TDs over that stretch.

-He saw a 20.1% target share for a Bucs offense that ranked 3rd in pass rate (62.9%). Tom Brady ranked 2nd in raw attempts (610).

-Brown’s 2.07 yards per route run ranked 17th among 84 WRs with 50+ targets.

-He was used primarily as a short-to-immediate target. His 9.4-yard aDOT was his lowest since 2010.

-AB, now 33, didn’t show any visible signs of decline. He forced a missed tackle once every 6.5 catches — his best rate since 2015. His YAC per reception (5.2) marked his most since 2013.

-Brown missed the NFC Championship game with a knee injury before returning for the Super Bowl.

-He underwent knee surgery in mid-May but was able to pass a physical before signing another 1-year deal ($3.1 million) with Tampa Bay.

-The Bucs retained Chris Godwin on the franchise tag. In fact, the Bucs retained all 11 starters on offense — plus depth WRs Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller.

-The team spent a 4th round pick on explosive KR/WR/gadget type Jaelon Darden. Don’t expect his arrival to impact AB’s production.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

Joining the Bucs at midseason, Brown went on to finish as the WR22 over the final 8 games (14.6 PPR PPG). He nearly out-produced Chris Godwin (15.8 PPG) over that stretch.

Now, will a larger sample producer similar results? Our sense is that Brown’s 2020 production is on the high-end of what he can accomplish in Tampa Bay. But if an injury strikes Godwin or Evans, the former Steeler could be a league-winner.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Bucs and WR Antonio Brown have agreed to a 1-year contract with $3.1 million guaranteed and upside to $6.25 million, according to NFL Network. This deal took a bit longer than expected to get done, but Brown was always expected back in Tampa. He posted a 45-483-4 line in 8 games with the Bucs last season, ranking 21st among WRs in PPR points over that span. Volume is still a bit of a concern here, though, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski also back for 2021.

View all Antonio Brown Shark Bites »

Bucs WR Antonio Brown (knee) is active for the Super Bowl. He got in full practices on Thursday and Friday, so he should be close to 100%.

View all Antonio Brown Shark Bites »

Bucs WR Antonio Brown (knee) is listed as questionable for the Super Bowl. He put in full practices on Thursday and Friday, so it'd be a surprise if he doesn't play. Brown has averaged 7.2 targets, 5.2 catches and 59 yards in 9 healthy games with the Bucs. But he's played fewer than 50% of the snaps in 3 of the last 5 as Tampa has deployed more 2-TE sets. That could change on Sunday if TE Cameron Brate (back) is unable to play.

View all Antonio Brown Shark Bites »

Bucs WR Antonio Brown (knee) was upgraded to a full participant in Thursday's practice. He's set to play in the Super Bowl. Brown's playing time was on the decline even before his injury as Tampa moved to more 2-TE sets. We're expecting a similar game plan on Sunday.

View all Antonio Brown Shark Bites »

Bucs WR Antonio Brown (knee) returned to a limited practice on Wednesday. It's an upgrade after he sat out all week leading up to the NFC Championship. Brown is seemingly on track to return for Sunday's Super Bowl.

View all Antonio Brown Shark Bites »

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