Brian Thomas Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

The Jaguars drafted LSU WR Brian Thomas in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. After two relatively quiet seasons to open his college career, Thomas busted out as a junior this past year. He racked up 1,177 yards and an FBS-high 17 TDs on 68 receptions. The big-play machine averaged 17.3 yards per catch on a 13.9-yard average target depth. He hauled in 15 of 22 targets 20+ yards downfield for 670 yards and 12 TDs. The catches, yards, and TDs were all top-3 marks in the nation, and Thomas was one of 24 WRs to score a 99.9 PFF receiving grade on deep targets. With a 4.33-second 40 time, strong ball-tracking ability, and high-end ball skills, Thomas has all the tools to be a dominant deep-ball weapon in the NFL. He wasn’t nearly as productive on short and intermediate routes at LSU and needs to improve as a route runner to emerge as a No. 1 WR in the NFL. But his combination of size (6’3, 209 lbs.) and athleticism (9.84 RAS) gives him the potential to do so. Thomas should at least be a valuable best-ball asset as a rookie. But with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and free-agent addition Gabe Davis rostered, the weekly floor figures to be low here. We’ll also see if Trevor Lawrence can improve after plateauing in 2023.

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