Bottom Line

There’s room for Schultz to grab a large share of Houston targets, but nothing about him suggests he’s a better bet to do so than the Texans’ top WRs.

Schultz’s fantasy production has lived off target volume and Dallas’ strong offensive efficiency. We’re not betting on Houston ranking near the top of the league in passing volume or efficiency this year.

That all makes Schultz a forgettable fantasy asset for 2023, especially with drafters still treating him as a top-12 TE.

What We Learned Last Year

• The past three seasons have showed us that Schultz needs target volume to produce, more so than others at his position.
• Over that span – his starting time in Dallas – Schultz accumulated the fifth-most PPR points among TEs. He also ranked:
  • Fourth in targets
  • Fourth in receptions
  • Seventh in yards
  • Fifth in TDs
  • Ninth in yards per game
  • Eighth in PPR points per game
  • 27th in yards per catch (among TEs with 50+ receptions over that span)
• He benefited from playing in an offense that finished first and fourth in scoring the past two years. That helped Schultz tie for fourth among TEs in end-zone targets last year and rank top-7 among TEs in red-zone TDs each of the past two years. (Dak Prescott missed most of 2020.)
• Schultz’s 2022 Pro Football Focus receiving grade fell from his 2021 career high. Last year’s mark ranked just 17th among 32 TEs who drew 40+ targets.
  • He ranked seventh among 35 in 2021 and 27th of 38 in 2020.
• He tied for 13th (among 32) in yards per route last season, after tying for 12th in 2021 and ranking 30th in 2020.
• After franchise-tagging Schultz for 2022, Dallas let him walk in free agency this offseason.

What to Expect in 2023

• Schultz hit the open market ahead of his age-27 season. He landed only a one-year, $6.25 million deal. That ranks him just 21st at the position in average annual salary for 2023.
• He joins a Houston offense coming off a terrible 2022 but with many new parts. Chief among those are the coaching staff – drawn largely from Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers staff – and rookie QB C.J. Stroud.
• The Texans look like a good bet to throw on less than 60% of offensive snaps. Just one of the six years that new OC Bobby Slowik spent on the 49ers staff found that offense exceeding 58.2% pass. San Francisco’s average for that span was 43.8% run vs. 56.2% pass.
• Dallas passed on just 52.3% of plays last year, but 59% and 61.4% the previous two seasons (with Schultz starting).
• Schultz should face minimal competition among Houston TEs. Teagan Quitoriano, Brevin Jordan and Mason Schreck follow him on the depth chart.
• No returning Texans player caught more than 37 passes for the team last season. Besides Schultz, the lead imports include:
  • 31-year-old Robert Woods, coming off his worst pro season
  • Round 3 rookie WR Tank Dell (5’8.5, 165 pounds)