Bottom Line

Harris underwhelmed in 2022, but was it due to an early-season injury? Or maybe New England’s dysfunctional offense?

It’s a moot point now, as the now-healthy 26-year-old joined an established Bills offense looking for a thumper. That role could include heavy goal-line usage – and ten+ TD upside.

Sure, Harris figures to be inconsistent given his lack of receiving upside. But for the RB4-level price, he’s a low-risk target.

What We Learned Last Year

• Harris failed to deliver in a contract year with New England.
  • Among 44 RBs with 100+ carries, Harris ranked 23rd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, 19th in yards after contact per attempt, and 38th in Elusive Rating.
• However, the Pats rolled out a run-blocking unit that ranked last in ESPN’s Run Block Win Wate; 20th in PFF’s run-blocking grade.
• Harris missed five games with thigh/hamstring issues.
• He finished as a top-24 PPR RB only four times. He never cracked the top-12.
• One other issue? Harris remained quiet as a pass-catcher. He caught only 17 passes – one shy of a career-high.
• Despite a rough environment, Harris watched Rhamondre Stevenson take over the backfield and finish PPR RB8.
• Absent an OC, New England’s offense lacked any direction or creativity. The stale unit ranked 26th in yards per game.

What to Expect in 2023

• Harris signed a team-friendly, one-year deal with the Bills in March (only $1 million guaranteed).
• Moving to Buffalo is certainly a macro-level upgrade for Harris.
• He joins a backfield that lost 177 carries from 2022 lead back Devin Singletary.
• RB James Cook enters year two poised for a bigger role. GM Brandon Beane suggested as much after the dynamic rookie averaged only 5.5 carries per game.
• Cook profiles as the better receiver, so it’s tough to see Harris carving out much of a role there.
• In year one under OC Ken Dorsey, Buffalo ranked 16th in carries per game.
• Buffalo ranked 28th in PFF run blocking grade last year but added talent to the unit with guards Connor McGovern and rookie O'Cyrus Torrence.
• Harris’ differentiator is his power. A stout 215 pounds, we anticipate Harris seeing the majority of the goal line work.
• Buffalo ranked 2nd last year with 28.4 points per game. But will the Bills (and Josh Allen) deliver on their talk of reducing the QB’s rushing role?
  • Allen scored five times on 15 rushes inside the ten-yard line in 2022.