DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Smith checked in 25th among WRs in target share in his debut season. He ranked just 32nd at the position in total targets.
• Philadelphia finished the season with the league’s most ground-heavy offense, running on 51.2% of offensive snaps.
• The split changed drastically from Week 8 on, though. Through the first 7 weeks, Philadelphia ranked 8th most pass-heavy in the league in neutral game situations, according to RBSDM.com. Even the rest of the way, however, Philly ranked just 5th most run-heavy in neutral situations.
• Combine those trends with the A.J. Brown trade (and contract extension), and it looks like the Eagles want to throw more going forward. How much more is a question we can’t really answer until the season begins.
• Smith ranked 26th among 234 graded WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade as a rookie. Jalen Hurts had an 87.2 passer rating overall, but Eagles QBs posted a 94.4 when targeting Smith.
• Smith’s 14.4-yard average target distance beat A.J. Brown by 3 yards and checked in deeper than any of the 3 rates Brown has posted so far in the NFL.
• Smith also edged Brown in yards after catch per reception in 2021: 3.9 to 3.6. Brown has averaged 5.9 in that category across his 3 seasons, however.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

A.J. Brown arrives as the more accomplished NFL WR, and the Eagles spent quite a bit to get him (1st-round pick + $100 million extension). But we have 3 seasons of Brown (a former 2nd-round pick) vs. just 1 of Smith, whom Philly moved up to draft 10th overall just a year ago. So it’s a little early to judge which will be the better NFL player. The point: Although we’re projecting him to do so, none of us can say with certainty that Brown will beat Smith in targets this season. Their respective ADPs, on the other hand, say that drafters are absolutely sure of it. Brown is going 11th among WRs in FFPC best-ball drafting vs. Smith at WR34. Underdog ADP has Brown at WR10 (inside Round 2) vs. Smith at WR36 (at the Round 6-7 turn). Both are priced ahead of where we project them. Between the 2, though, Smith carries less risk at draft cost.