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DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDeVonta Smith's Basic Stats

DeVonta Smith
ADP: 8.7
Bye: 7
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 23.8
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 170
40 Time: 4.44
Speed Score: 0.00

DeVonta Smith's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.3 60.6 0.3 7.9
Weekly Writeup
Smith has comeback from a worryingly quiet opener to see 22.6% and 34.3% target share the past 2 weeks. Even hanging around the lower of those 2 numbers would be fine. We're still learning about this week's Jacksonville matchup, but the Jags arrive as the #4 defense in overall Football Outsiders DVOA, 7th against the pass. So we can't assume it's an easy spot.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.2 61.9 0.4 8.6

DeVonta Smith's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#43 Wide Receiver

122.2 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
8.7 66.8 915.7 5.3 2.3 0.6

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDeVonta Smith's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Smith checked in 25th among WRs in target share in his debut season. He ranked just 32nd at the position in total targets.
  • Philadelphia finished the season with the league’s most ground-heavy offense, running on 51.2% of offensive snaps.
  • The split changed drastically from Week 8 on, though. Through the first 7 weeks, Philadelphia ranked 8th most pass-heavy in the league in neutral game situations, according to RBSDM.com. Even the rest of the way, however, Philly ranked just 5th most run-heavy in neutral situations.
  • Combine those trends with the A.J. Brown trade (and contract extension), and it looks like the Eagles want to throw more going forward. How much more is a question we can’t really answer until the season begins.
  • Smith ranked 26th among 234 graded WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade as a rookie. Jalen Hurts had an 87.2 passer rating overall, but Eagles QBs posted a 94.4 when targeting Smith.
  • Smith’s 14.4-yard average target distance beat A.J. Brown by 3 yards and checked in deeper than any of the 3 rates Brown has posted so far in the NFL.
  • Smith also edged Brown in yards after catch per reception in 2021: 3.9 to 3.6. Brown has averaged 5.9 in that category across his 3 seasons, however.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

A.J. Brown arrives as the more accomplished NFL WR, and the Eagles spent quite a bit to get him (1st-round pick + $100 million extension). But we have 3 seasons of Brown (a former 2nd-round pick) vs. just 1 of Smith, whom Philly moved up to draft 10th overall just a year ago. So it’s a little early to judge which will be the better NFL player. The point: Although we’re projecting him to do so, none of us can say with certainty that Brown will beat Smith in targets this season. Their respective ADPs, on the other hand, say that drafters are absolutely sure of it. Brown is going 11th among WRs in FFPC best-ball drafting vs. Smith at WR34. Underdog ADP has Brown at WR10 (inside Round 2) vs. Smith at WR36 (at the Round 6-7 turn). Both are priced ahead of where we project them. Between the 2, though, Smith carries less risk at draft cost.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

DeVonta Smith, WR PHI

8:05pm EDT 9/26/22

Smith delivers big Week 3

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith led the team in targets (12), receptions (8) and receiving yards (169) in Sunday's win over the Commanders. He grabbed 1 of Jalen Hurts' 3 TD passes, leaving 1 apiece for WR A.J. Brown and TE Dallas Goedert. Brown checked in 2nd in the other 3 categories, tallying a 5-85-1 receiving line on 10 targets. Goedert managed just 3-26-1 on 4 looks in a game he left briefly with a shin issue. Smith looks like he'll reside much closer to Brown in target share than the opener in Detroit suggested.

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Eagles WR A.J. Brown still led the team in targets in Week 2, but his 8 looks merely beat WR DeVonta Smith by 1 and TE Dallas Goedert by 2. Brown caught 5 balls for 69 yards in the easy win over Minnesota. Smith caught all 7 of his targets for 80 yards, while Goedert supplied 5 receptions for a team-high 82 yards. QB Jalen Hurts spread his other 10 pass attempts among 5 teammates. WR Quez Watkins caught the night's only TD pass, a 53-yarder that was 1 of his 2 receptions on 2 targets. Brown's share marked a predictable fall from the heights of Week 1, but he still garnered 25.8% target share vs. Minnesota.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

If the opener laid out Philly's passing plan, then WR A.J. Brown will not have any target-volume issues. Instead, he'll be a big problem for his teammates. Brown claimed 13 targets among QB Jalen Hurts' 32 pass attempts in Sunday's win over the Lions, a 40.6% share. That's certainly not a rate we'd bet on continuing. But Brown could lose a quarter of that share and still rank among the league leaders in the category. He caught 10 balls for 155 yards, factoring in at all levels of the passing game. No other Eagle drew more than 4 targets, with TE Dallas Goedert, WR DeVonta Smith and RB Kenneth Gainwell tying for 2nd place. Goedert managed 3 catches for 60 yards. Smith didn't catch a pass. Brown will obviously remain a weekly starter for any fantasy team that drafted him. Goedert looks fine to continue using, as we'd expect at least a slight bump from his Week 1 target share of 12.5%. Smith would be better to bench at least until we see this passing picture develop a little further. Smith did, at least, play 6 more snaps than Brown and run 1 more route vs. Detroit.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith returned to practice on Sunday. He ended up missing about 10 days with a minor groin injury. Barring a setback, consider Smith's fantasy stock unaffected.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
Dynasty MVP 125.4
Position Rank #38 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
391
668
1,123
Dynasty Write-up
The Slim Reaper made it through his rookie campaign unscathed and earned a solid 21% target share. We'd like to see that number climb, especially in an offense that looks poised to lean run as long as Jalen Hurts is behind center. But that won't be easy with the arrival of A.J. Brown.

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