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DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

DeVonta Smith
PHI

WR PHI

#39 Wide Receiver

124 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 14
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: 22
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 172
40 Time: 4.49

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

5.1

DS Projection

8.6

Consensus

38 other sites
9

Med Ceiling

12.7

Rest of
Season

8.3

Week 6 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.4 67.9 0.3 8.6
Weekly Writeup
Smith has been a bit unlucky so far, ranking 22nd among WRs in expected PPR points but just 34th in actual points. Thursday night's game vs. a pass-funnel Bucs defense with a banged-up secondary could be Smith's real breakout performance.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.3 59 0.4 8.3
Week 4
Smith delivered the 1st 100-yard game of his career Sunday against the Chiefs. Credit passing volume, as Jalen Hurts attempted 48 throws. Smith’s team-high 10 targets accounted for just 20.8% of those, right in line with the previous 3 weeks. The rookie caught 7 for 122 yards.

Smith has continued to see more downfield work than he did in the opening win at Atlanta. Week 4 featured a 37-yard catch, his longest to date. And his 15.8-yard average depth of target through 4 games nearly doubles his mark for Week 1 (8.6).

The young Philly wideout also benefited from facing a Chiefs defense that has proved generous throughout the 1st 4 weeks. Injuries to 2 of their top corners -- most notably Charvarius Ward -- made the matchup even better.

Smith doesn’t quite stand as a weekly WR3 for fantasy teams just yet. But he’s in the starter conversation on a weekly basis. Matchups with Tampa in Week 6 and Vegas in Week 7 look better than this week’s trip to Carolina.
Week 2
Smith’s raw numbers make his Week 2 look pretty crappy, and his 2 catches for 16 yards on 7 targets didn’t help anyone. But the game showed a better performance than that for the rookie.

First, Smith drew a pair of PI calls. The 1st came on a 3rd-and-6 on the opening drive. The 2nd came in the end zone midway through the 2nd quarter. Obviously, neither penalty helps your fantasy score. But those are key plays, and the targets show Smith’s importance in the scheme.

Jalen Hurts also missed Smith 3 times with deep targets, including twice where he threw short of the wideout. A reception on any of those 3 balls would have boosted Smith’s receiving yardage significantly. The fact that he was getting those targets also shows the range of his role. And it’s worth noting that Hurts led the league in average target depth, according to Pro Football Focus, just a week after coming up shortest in the NFL in that category.

It looks like we can expect these Eagles to adjust their game plan significantly by opponent. It also seems clear that Smith will stand at the center of any passing plans. He looks like a solid WR3 option for the Week 3 visit to Dallas.
Week 1
Smith’s 1st career catch came in the end zone to close out Philadelphia’s 1st drive against Atlanta, after a smark non-pick play by TE Zach Ertz allowed him to break free. (Ertz ran toward Smith’s cover man but pulled back before actually making contact.)

The rookie wideout then made 4 more receptions among 5 targets on the Eagles’ 3rd drive of the game. He would finish with a team-high 8 targets (22.9% of Jalen Hurts’ attempts). Smith led Philly with 71 receiving yards and tied for the team lead with 6 receptions.

It’s tough to ask for more than a 6-71-1 NFL debut, though it’s worth remembering that this came against what’s likely to be a weak Atlanta secondary.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Smith landed in an offense that didn’t see anyone reach 80 targets in 2020. Greg Ward led the team with just a 13.2% share. Zach Ertz and Travis Fulgham ranked 2nd and 3rd on that team in targets. Opportunity is ripe for the picking.
  • After trading down from 6 to 12 ahead of the draft, the Eagles moved back up to 10 to secure Smith.
  • The Slim Reaper set SEC records in 2020 with 1,856 receiving yards and 23 TD catches, each of which rank among the top 6 all-time in the NCAA.
  • Smith posted 8 games of 2+ TD catches and cracked 200 receiving yards 3 times as a senior.
  • Smith also led the 2019 Crimson Tide in receiving yards (1,256) and TDs (14), ahead of Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs.
  • Smith spent his first 2 Alabama seasons as a teammate of Jalen Hurts. That said, they saw minimal game time together. Smith caught just 8 passes in 2017, Hurts’ final season as the Tide starter -- then broke out as a sophomore with Tua Tagovailoa behind center.
  • Since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002, we have seen 72 WRs drafted in Round 1. The rookie-year median for that group is 5.31 targets per game (a 16-game pace of 85). Of those 72 WRs, 23 have gone inside the top 10. That group’s median sits at 7.19 targets per game (16-game pace: 115). Those 115 targets would have tied for 20th among wideouts last season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We could dig deeper into the numbers on Smith, but that seems unnecessary at this point. (You can check out his full Prospect Scouting Report here.) The only real question on him is whether Smith can buck history and succeed in the NFL at a size that we just haven’t seen work. The Eagles clearly believe he can, as they jumped ahead of the Giants to make sure they got him. That lands Smith on a team that saw no player reach 80 targets last season. The coaching staff is new. The QB has just 3 full NFL starts behind him. And we’ll have to wait to see exactly how much time Smith spends at different WR spots. But early reports point to Nick Sirianni moving his WRs around quite a bit, and we saw Smith do quite well in just such a malleable role last year. As long as you don’t have to reach too early, Smith carries immediate fantasy intrigue.

His FFPC best-ball ADP of WR33 as of this writing teeters on the edge of too early, though -- 2 spots behind Odell Beckham Jr. and 9 ahead of Brandin Cooks.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (knee) was back on the practice field on Monday. Beat writers noted that he only went through individual drills, so he still seems limited. But the rookie is clearly on track to be fine for Week 1 and still has a good chance to open the season as Philly's #1 WR.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

The Eagles have upgraded WR DeVonta Smith from "week to week" to "day to day" on their injury report, according to Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Smith was reportedly running sprints on a side field with a trainer, helmet on, during the team's Saturday practice. It sounds like he's close to returning from his knee sprain -- with nearly a month still to go before the regular-season opener. Now looks like a good time to take some shots at a lower-priced Smith in fantasy football drafts.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith is expected to be out 2-3 weeks with a sprained MCL, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Even the long end of that timetable would have Smith back well before the start of the regular season. But the rookie will miss valuable training camp reps and seems unlikely to play in the preseason. That could mean that he gets off to a slow start this year. We'll see how he fares when he gets back on the field.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith is "week to week" with a knee sprain, according to ESPN's Tim McManus. Smith sustained the injury in Sunday's practice but reportedly stayed on the field. An MRI later diagnosed a sprain. We'll see exactly how long Smith remains out, but any missed time can't be good for a rookie wideout and a QB (Jalen Hurts) heading into his 1st full starting season. Smith could become a value if this knocks his ADP down the board. He presents risk around the bottom of WR3 territory for now, though, while his absence leaves target opportunity for others.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

The Eagles traded up from #12 to #10 to select Alabama WR DeVonta Smith. You know the concern with Smith: He weighed in at 170 pounds at Alabama’s Pro Day and 166 at the medical recheck in Indianapolis. That puts him in a bucket that hasn’t produced many high-end fantasy assets. DeSean Jackson is the only WR 175 pounds or lighter to top 1,000 yards over the past 10 seasons. But Smith is also 6’0 with a 78.5-inch wingspan that lands him in the 72nd percentile among NFL WRs. So he’s skinny, but not small. And he puts big check marks in the production and tape boxes. Smith is coming off a Heisman-winning 2020 campaign that saw him post a silly 117-1856-23 line. Those yardage and TD totals both rank top 6 in NCAA history. Smith’s 2019 junior season was just as impressive. The raw numbers weren’t as big: 68 catches for 1,256 yards and 14 TDs. But they came alongside a pair of 2020 1st-round picks in Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs, plus a healthy Jaylen Waddle. Smith led that stacked squad in yards and TDs, ranking 2nd to Jeudy in catches. The tape shows a combination of ankle-breaking releases, silky smooth routes and uncanny ball skills. Smith wins at all levels of the field and is much better in contested situations than you’d expect from a man of his size. While the weight adds risk to his NFL projection, Smith is a guy we’re not gonna bet against. He’s simply good at football. The Eagles have now gone WR in the 1st round in 2 straight drafts after going with Jalen Reagor at #21 last year. Those guys should be the team’s top 2 WRs going forward.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

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