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DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDeVonta Smith's Basic Stats

DeVonta Smith
ADP: 4.8
Bye: 5
Experience: 3
Age: 25.7
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 170
40 Time: 4.54
Speed Score: 0.00

DeVonta Smith's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5 66 0.39 9
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
5.5 72.7 0.4 10

DeVonta Smith's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#25 Wide Receiver

209.1 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
4.8 75 990 5.85 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDeVonta Smith's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Smith’s averaged 80 catches and 1,059 yards through his first three seasons.

He inked a big-money extension this summer and will now play under a bright young OC in Kellen Moore. His history suggests we’ll see a more creative offense with boosted pass volume – certainly relative to Philly’s recent history.

A.J. Brown remains a huge roadblock to WR1 totals, though. And Jalen Hurts’ goal line rushing role should still feature prominently. It’s a questionable TD ceiling that leaves Smith best viewed as a low-end WR2.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Remember the durability questions surrounding Smith as a prospect?
    • Through three seasons, he’s missed one game – Week 18 of last season.
    • He returned for the Wild Card round to drop 8-148 (with A.J. Brown sidelined).
  • Overall, Smith ranked 16th among WRs in PPR scoring.
    • Peaks and valleys surfaced in Philly's run-slanted offense. Smith finished as a top-24 WR nine times ... and outside the top-36 six times.
  • Among 39 WRs with 500 routes run, Smith ranked just 27th in targets per route run (0.18). Call it the impact of playing alongside Brown.
    • The Alabama standout finished a decent 17th in yards per route run (1.75).
  • Smith's connection with Jalen Hurts was strong, despite Hurts playing through a knee issue for part of the season.
    • The duo combined for a 72.3% catch rate. That marked a career high.
  • Four of Smith's seven TDs came from 63, 38, 36, and 29 yards out.
    • He garnered only 6 red zone targets.
    • His 12.2% RZ target share ranked third on the team behind Brown (30.6%) and Dallas Goedert (20.4%).
    • Hurts’ red zone rushing prowess decreased TD opportunities. He scored 15 rushing TDs, each from the 12 yard-line or closer.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Smith signed a contract extension in April.
    • The deal calls for $51 million guaranteed.
  • The Eagles brought in new OC Kellen Moore, formerly with the Chargers and Cowboys.
    • The 2023 Chargers ranked 8th in neutral pass rate. Philly sat 26th.
    • The Chargers ranked 6th in first-down pass rate, while the Eagles slotted 13th.
  • Smith spoke glowingly on the new offense at minicamp. “I think it’s going to be great,” Smith said. “Get a new style of offense around. Let guys, not have more freedom, but be able to do things that we weren’t allowed to do, moving guys around, things like that. Overall, it’s always (good) to have a fresh start.”
    • Smith also mentioned more bunch formations, which confuse defenses and create more space.
    • Moore’s also expected to implement more pre-snap motion, a concept rarely used by the ‘23 Eagles.
  • A.J. Brown returns after signing an extension in April. There’s no reason to believe he won’t remain the clear WR1.
  • Hurts’ passing performance dipped last year, but we’re optimistic he can rebound with better health.
  • The Eagles enter the summer with an uninspiring group of potential WR3s.

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Johnny Wilson, WR PHI

4:36pm EDT 4/27/24

Johnny Wilson joins Eagles WR corps

The Eagles selected Florida State WR Johnny Wilson in Round 6 of the NFL Draft. Wilson started out as an Arizona State Sun Devil, recruited by current Raiders HC Antonio Pierce. But the four-star California native would require patience before making his mark. 2020 turned up a pandemic-shortened season. Then in 2021, Wilson missed seven games with a hamstring. His fortunes changed in 2022 following a move to Florida State. The 6’6, 231-pounder broke through with 43-898-5 in 13 games. That’s 20.9 yards per catch – plus an eye-popping 3.36 yards per route run. Wilson’s production predictably dipped in 2023 (41-617-2). FSU welcomed in transfer WR Keon Coleman, while Wilson missed three games with an injury. Despite the up-and-down college career, the 23-year-old has a chance to stick as an outside WR in the pros. He’s a rare athlete at his size, and he proved it at the Combine with a 9.70 Relative Athletic Score. His 84.5-inch wingspan is simply enormous. This isn’t a great spot for Wilson’s dynasty value, though. The Eagles have WR A.J. Brown signed through 2029 and WR DeVonta Smith through 2028.

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The Eagles and WR DeVonta Smith agreed to a three-year $75 million contract extension with $51 million guaranteed, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Smith had two years remaining on his rookie deal but is now signed with Philadelphia through the 2028 campaign. The 2021 first-round pick has opened his NFL career with WR29, WR9, and WR16 PPR finishes. The presence of WR A.J. Brown (signed through 2026) caps Smith's upside a tad. But he's a rock-solid fantasy WR2 in the short and long term. The contract extension is also excellent news for QB Jalen Hurts' dynasty value.

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The Eagles are set to hire Kellen Moore as their new OC, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Moore is coming off a disappointing season in Los Angeles, where his Chargers finished an underwhelming 18th in total yards and 21st in points. He had a much more productive stint in Dallas the four years prior, with three of those Cowboys teams ranking top-6 in points, including first- and fourth-place finishes in his final two seasons. Moore deployed a slightly run-leaning offense (in terms of Pass Rate Over Expected) in Dallas and went slightly pass-leaning in Los Angeles last year. But his offenses have consistently played fast. In fact, all five of them ranked top-4 in both pace and situation-neutral pace. That should mean a significant shift in Philadelphia after the Eagles finished 18th in pace and neutral pace last year. We'll see exactly how much say Moore has in the offense under HC Shane Steichen.

View all Jalen Hurts Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (ankle) put in a full week of practice and is not listed on the final injury report for Monday night's game vs. the Bucs. It looks like he'll be at least close to 100% for that one and has a chance to see a big target share with WR A.J. Brown out.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
Dynasty MVP 112.8
Position Rank #43 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
360
584
1,019
Dynasty Write-up
Smith has missed only one game in three NFL seasons. His production took a small step back in 2023, but he's positioned for long-term success with Jalen Hurts.
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