DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Smith’s averaged 80 catches and 1,059 yards through his first three seasons.

He inked a big-money extension this summer and will now play under a bright young OC in Kellen Moore. His history suggests we’ll see a more creative offense with boosted pass volume – certainly relative to Philly’s recent history.

A.J. Brown remains a huge roadblock to WR1 totals, though. And Jalen Hurts’ goal line rushing role should still feature prominently. It’s a questionable TD ceiling that leaves Smith best viewed as a low-end WR2.

What We Learned Last Year

• Remember the durability questions surrounding Smith as a prospect?
  • Through three seasons, he’s missed one game – Week 18 of last season.
  • He returned for the Wild Card round to drop 8-148 (with A.J. Brown sidelined).
• Overall, Smith ranked 16th among WRs in PPR scoring.
  • Peaks and valleys surfaced in Philly's run-slanted offense. Smith finished as a top-24 WR nine times ... and outside the top-36 six times.
• Among 39 WRs with 500 routes run, Smith ranked just 27th in targets per route run (0.18). Call it the impact of playing alongside Brown.
  • The Alabama standout finished a decent 17th in yards per route run (1.75).
• Smith's connection with Jalen Hurts was strong, despite Hurts playing through a knee issue for part of the season.
  • The duo combined for a 72.3% catch rate. That marked a career high.
• Four of Smith's seven TDs came from 63, 38, 36, and 29 yards out.
  • He garnered only 6 red zone targets.
  • His 12.2% RZ target share ranked third on the team behind Brown (30.6%) and Dallas Goedert (20.4%).
  • Hurts’ red zone rushing prowess decreased TD opportunities. He scored 15 rushing TDs, each from the 12 yard-line or closer.

What to Expect in 2024

• Smith signed a contract extension in April.
  • The deal calls for $51 million guaranteed.
• The Eagles brought in new OC Kellen Moore, formerly with the Chargers and Cowboys.
  • The 2023 Chargers ranked 8th in neutral pass rate. Philly sat 26th.
  • The Chargers ranked 6th in first-down pass rate, while the Eagles slotted 13th.
• Smith spoke glowingly on the new offense at minicamp. “I think it’s going to be great,” Smith said. “Get a new style of offense around. Let guys, not have more freedom, but be able to do things that we weren’t allowed to do, moving guys around, things like that. Overall, it’s always (good) to have a fresh start.”
  • Smith also mentioned more bunch formations, which confuse defenses and create more space.
  • Moore’s also expected to implement more pre-snap motion, a concept rarely used by the ‘23 Eagles.
• A.J. Brown returns after signing an extension in April. There’s no reason to believe he won’t remain the clear WR1.
• Hurts’ passing performance dipped last year, but we’re optimistic he can rebound with better health.
• The Eagles enter the summer with an uninspiring group of potential WR3s.