Bottom Line

Remember all of the negative talk about Smith’s weight?

Well, through two seasons, he’s played all 34 games. And in 2022, he captured a 25.3% target share en route to the WR9 season (PPR).

Only 24, Smith will run it back with the key pieces of Philly’s offense intact. The former Alabama star belongs squarely in WR2 territory.

What We Learned Last Year

• Smith missed a portion of training camp with a groin injury.
  • He was listed with groin, back, and knee injuries in season. None of them kept him out of a game.
• Smith took a step forward alongside breakout star Jalen Hurts. And it translated into fantasy success.
  • The ‘Bama product finished as a top-15 PPR WR five times. However, he ranked WR50 or worse on five occasions.
  • Overall, he ranked as the PPR WR9 – four spots behind teammate A.J. Brown.
  • Smith acted as the 1B option to Brown, with the former seeing only nine fewer targets in the same number of games.
• Among all WRs, Smith ranked 13th in targets, ninth in catches, and eighth in yards.
• He came on down the stretch last year, hitting 100 yards in five of his final nine games.
• Among 50 WRs with 80+ targets, Smith tied for 14th in catch rate, ranked 25th in yards per catch, tied for 7th in yards after catch per reception, and tied for 17th in yards per route run.
• Hurts leaned on Brown’s physicality in the red zone. He saw a 34% red-zone target share, considerably higher than Smith’s 25% share.

What to Expect in 2023

• Smith’s offseason began with rehabbing a toe injury from the Super Bowl. He’s now back to 100% for Year 3.
• Despite a slender frame, Smith has now appeared in 38 of 38 games through two seasons, including the playoffs.
• The nucleus of this offense – QB Jalen Hurts, WR A.J. Brown, TE Dallas Goedert, and a stout O-line – remains intact.
• The backfield lost Miles Sanders but looks deeper with the arrivals of Rashaad Penny and receiving back D’Andre Swift.
  • Philly RBs combined for a 12% target share in ‘22. That’ll likely increase in 2023, but don’t expect Smith’s workload to suffer.
• OC Shane Steichen left to take the Colts’ HC job. We largely expect the same offense under QB coach-turned-OC Brian Johnson.
• Per The Athletic, the Eagles had halftime leads in 16 of 20 games last season.
  • Philly held double-digit halftime leads in 11 games.
  • They averaged 18.9 pass attempts in the first half of games; 12.3 pass attempts in the second half.
• A tougher schedule should find more passing for Philly and Hurts, who’s entering only year three as the starter.
  • This defense likely takes a step back, too, after posting a whopping 70 sacks. It’s another reason to believe Hurts’ volume – only ~30 passes per game in 2022 – improves.