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DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

DeVonta Smith
PHI

WR PHI

#39 Wide Receiver

124 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 14
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: 23
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 172
40 Time: 4.49

Weekly Outlook

Week 20 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 13
If Dallas Goedert enjoyed Sunday’s substitute QB, Smith certainly did not. The rookie drew just 4 targets and finished with 2 catches for 15 yards. HC Nick Sirianni might have been more to blame than Gardner Minshew, though.

Smith played a season-low 62% of snaps vs. the Jets. For context, each of the previous 3 weeks found Smith playing at least 84%, and he has played 85.5% of offensive snaps for the season. Sirianni explained afterward his team was finding success from its “13” personnel package (3 TEs, 1 RB, 1 WR) and that Jalen Reagor was the fit for “what we were asking them to do.”

“Not going to apologize,” he added, answering a question about Smith’s lack of playing time.

We’ll need to see this happen more than once before it’s time to worry. But it’s just another risk factor for a WR whose situation already presents a low volume ceiling and shaky weekly floor. Keep that in mind for lineup decisions on the other side of Philly’s Week 14 bye.
Week 12
Smith caught 2 balls for 22 yards in the Week 12 loss to the Giants. He was targeted 4 times, but was clearly frustrated over not being more involved. That frustration boiled over at the end of the game as he was visibly upset heading to the locker room.

It’s good to see the fire from the rookie WR. He has been a nice spark for the Eagles offense, but he has seen fewer targets since Philadelphia committed more to the running game. That will continue to limit Smith’s floor and ceiling for fantasy purposes, keeping him in WR3 territory.
Week 11
Smith drew 6 targets for the 3rd straight game, a span that has seen him catch 4+ balls and exceed 60 receiving yards in each. His 6 looks against the Saints ranked 2nd on the team.

Smith has now topped 20% target share in 5 straight games since Philly traded Zach Ertz -- even the Detroit game in which Jalen Hurts attempted only 14 passes. Overall, Smith has drawn 26.8% target share in that span.

That’s elite-level opportunity for the position, which makes it easier to keep playing Smith through just-decent stat lines such as what he posted vs. New Orleans. His remaining schedule is the most favorable in the league for WR scoring, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Week 10
The rookie continued to look terrific in Sunday’s win at Denver. He snagged 4 of 6 targets for 66 yards and both of Philly’s offensive TDs.

The big play came in the 1st quarter, when Smith snared a 36-yard toss in the end zone, despite tight coverage from Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II. Smith added a 5-yard TD in the 2nd quarter.

His 6 looks tied for the team lead and constituted 26.1% of Jalen Hurts’ 23 attempts for the game. That passing volume is a concern. The Eagles have gone from 1 of the league’s most pass-heavy teams earlier this year to the 2nd most run-heavy over the past 3 weeks. If they stay in that range, Smith will have trouble delivering consistent fantasy production, simply because of limited opportunities.

If, however, Philly rebounds to somewhere in between extremely pass-heavy and extremely run-heavy, then Smith will be well set up to prosper. He has seen 28% target share and a 41% share of air yards since the Zach Ertz trade. Both marks rank top 10 at the position.
Week 9
The Eagles went run-heavy for the 2nd game in a row, but that didn’t leave Smith out this time. The rookie drew 6 targets among just 17 Jalen Hurts pass attempts in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. That tied Dallas Goedert for the team lead.

Smith caught 5 of his 6 looks for 116 yards. It marked his 2nd game of 100+ yards this season; 1st since Week 4. Smith’s day included a 28-yard catch-and-run TD midway through the 4th quarter that tied the score.

Even with the big game, though, Smith still sits tied for just 46th among wideouts in PPR points per game. Philadelphia’s new run-heavy lean on offense certainly doesn’t help what was already a flimsy fantasy profile. The Eagles have run on 64% of plays the past 2 weeks, and that’s even counting Jalen Hurts’ scrambles on the passing side.

This might be a good week to see if you can sell DeVonta Smith at an inflated valuation.
Week 8
Try to throw out Sunday’s result for Smith. He drew just 3 targets in a game that saw Jalen Hurts attempt only 14 passes before both players -- and most other starters -- left at the beginning of the 4th quarter.

Smith had seen 9+ targets in 3 of the previous 4 contests. For the year, he has drawn a solid 21.9% of Hurts’ pass attempts. The rookie’s catch rate (58.9%) and yards per reception (12.8) also look solid (not spectacular).

Smith remains in the WR4 mix, perhaps on the WR3 fringe.
Week 7
The rookie drew a game-high 9 targets in Sunday’s loss to the Raiders. He caught 5 for 61 yards on a completely mediocre day. Get used to it.

Smith ranks 19th among WRs in targets but just 28th in receptions and receiving yards. He has scored a mere 1 TD, but there’s no reason to believe in big positive regression there. The rookie’s 3 end-zone targets and 9 red-zone targets each rank outside the league’s top 40, according to Pro Football Focus.

Two key limitations aren’t likely to change. Jalen Hurts ranks just 21st in PFF passing grade and 27th in QBR. And though Smith leads Philly in targets, his 21.8% share is far from dominant.

Expect the rookie to continue lingering on the fringes of WR3 territory in fantasy.
Week 6
Blame a lack of volume for Smith not delivering the fantasy goods in Week 6. He saw just 4 targets, tied for 3rd on the team on a night where Jalen Hurts attempted just 26 passes. Smith did produce the team’s longest play: a 25-yard reception early in the 4th quarter. But we’ll need to accept that the combo of rookie WR, Jalen Hurts’ up-and-down passing and Philly’s struggling offense will mean inconsistent production.

A schedule that brings the Raiders and Lions the next 2 weeks looks kind, at least. Matchups with the Chargers, Broncos and Saints look less favorable after that, though.
Week 4
Smith delivered the 1st 100-yard game of his career Sunday against the Chiefs. Credit passing volume, as Jalen Hurts attempted 48 throws. Smith’s team-high 10 targets accounted for just 20.8% of those, right in line with the previous 3 weeks. The rookie caught 7 for 122 yards.

Smith has continued to see more downfield work than he did in the opening win at Atlanta. Week 4 featured a 37-yard catch, his longest to date. And his 15.8-yard average depth of target through 4 games nearly doubles his mark for Week 1 (8.6).

The young Philly wideout also benefited from facing a Chiefs defense that has proved generous throughout the 1st 4 weeks. Injuries to 2 of their top corners -- most notably Charvarius Ward -- made the matchup even better.

Smith doesn’t quite stand as a weekly WR3 for fantasy teams just yet. But he’s in the starter conversation on a weekly basis. Matchups with Tampa in Week 6 and Vegas in Week 7 look better than this week’s trip to Carolina.
Week 2
Smith’s raw numbers make his Week 2 look pretty crappy, and his 2 catches for 16 yards on 7 targets didn’t help anyone. But the game showed a better performance than that for the rookie.

First, Smith drew a pair of PI calls. The 1st came on a 3rd-and-6 on the opening drive. The 2nd came in the end zone midway through the 2nd quarter. Obviously, neither penalty helps your fantasy score. But those are key plays, and the targets show Smith’s importance in the scheme.

Jalen Hurts also missed Smith 3 times with deep targets, including twice where he threw short of the wideout. A reception on any of those 3 balls would have boosted Smith’s receiving yardage significantly. The fact that he was getting those targets also shows the range of his role. And it’s worth noting that Hurts led the league in average target depth, according to Pro Football Focus, just a week after coming up shortest in the NFL in that category.

It looks like we can expect these Eagles to adjust their game plan significantly by opponent. It also seems clear that Smith will stand at the center of any passing plans. He looks like a solid WR3 option for the Week 3 visit to Dallas.
Week 1
Smith’s 1st career catch came in the end zone to close out Philadelphia’s 1st drive against Atlanta, after a smark non-pick play by TE Zach Ertz allowed him to break free. (Ertz ran toward Smith’s cover man but pulled back before actually making contact.)

The rookie wideout then made 4 more receptions among 5 targets on the Eagles’ 3rd drive of the game. He would finish with a team-high 8 targets (22.9% of Jalen Hurts’ attempts). Smith led Philly with 71 receiving yards and tied for the team lead with 6 receptions.

It’s tough to ask for more than a 6-71-1 NFL debut, though it’s worth remembering that this came against what’s likely to be a weak Atlanta secondary.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Smith landed in an offense that didn’t see anyone reach 80 targets in 2020. Greg Ward led the team with just a 13.2% share. Zach Ertz and Travis Fulgham ranked 2nd and 3rd on that team in targets. Opportunity is ripe for the picking.
  • After trading down from 6 to 12 ahead of the draft, the Eagles moved back up to 10 to secure Smith.
  • The Slim Reaper set SEC records in 2020 with 1,856 receiving yards and 23 TD catches, each of which rank among the top 6 all-time in the NCAA.
  • Smith posted 8 games of 2+ TD catches and cracked 200 receiving yards 3 times as a senior.
  • Smith also led the 2019 Crimson Tide in receiving yards (1,256) and TDs (14), ahead of Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs.
  • Smith spent his first 2 Alabama seasons as a teammate of Jalen Hurts. That said, they saw minimal game time together. Smith caught just 8 passes in 2017, Hurts’ final season as the Tide starter -- then broke out as a sophomore with Tua Tagovailoa behind center.
  • Since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002, we have seen 72 WRs drafted in Round 1. The rookie-year median for that group is 5.31 targets per game (a 16-game pace of 85). Of those 72 WRs, 23 have gone inside the top 10. That group’s median sits at 7.19 targets per game (16-game pace: 115). Those 115 targets would have tied for 20th among wideouts last season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We could dig deeper into the numbers on Smith, but that seems unnecessary at this point. (You can check out his full Prospect Scouting Report here.) The only real question on him is whether Smith can buck history and succeed in the NFL at a size that we just haven’t seen work. The Eagles clearly believe he can, as they jumped ahead of the Giants to make sure they got him. That lands Smith on a team that saw no player reach 80 targets last season. The coaching staff is new. The QB has just 3 full NFL starts behind him. And we’ll have to wait to see exactly how much time Smith spends at different WR spots. But early reports point to Nick Sirianni moving his WRs around quite a bit, and we saw Smith do quite well in just such a malleable role last year. As long as you don’t have to reach too early, Smith carries immediate fantasy intrigue.

His FFPC best-ball ADP of WR33 as of this writing teeters on the edge of too early, though -- 2 spots behind Odell Beckham Jr. and 9 ahead of Brandin Cooks.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (knee) was back on the practice field on Monday. Beat writers noted that he only went through individual drills, so he still seems limited. But the rookie is clearly on track to be fine for Week 1 and still has a good chance to open the season as Philly's #1 WR.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

The Eagles have upgraded WR DeVonta Smith from "week to week" to "day to day" on their injury report, according to Dave Zangaro of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Smith was reportedly running sprints on a side field with a trainer, helmet on, during the team's Saturday practice. It sounds like he's close to returning from his knee sprain -- with nearly a month still to go before the regular-season opener. Now looks like a good time to take some shots at a lower-priced Smith in fantasy football drafts.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith is expected to be out 2-3 weeks with a sprained MCL, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Even the long end of that timetable would have Smith back well before the start of the regular season. But the rookie will miss valuable training camp reps and seems unlikely to play in the preseason. That could mean that he gets off to a slow start this year. We'll see how he fares when he gets back on the field.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith is "week to week" with a knee sprain, according to ESPN's Tim McManus. Smith sustained the injury in Sunday's practice but reportedly stayed on the field. An MRI later diagnosed a sprain. We'll see exactly how long Smith remains out, but any missed time can't be good for a rookie wideout and a QB (Jalen Hurts) heading into his 1st full starting season. Smith could become a value if this knocks his ADP down the board. He presents risk around the bottom of WR3 territory for now, though, while his absence leaves target opportunity for others.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

The Eagles traded up from #12 to #10 to select Alabama WR DeVonta Smith. You know the concern with Smith: He weighed in at 170 pounds at Alabama’s Pro Day and 166 at the medical recheck in Indianapolis. That puts him in a bucket that hasn’t produced many high-end fantasy assets. DeSean Jackson is the only WR 175 pounds or lighter to top 1,000 yards over the past 10 seasons. But Smith is also 6’0 with a 78.5-inch wingspan that lands him in the 72nd percentile among NFL WRs. So he’s skinny, but not small. And he puts big check marks in the production and tape boxes. Smith is coming off a Heisman-winning 2020 campaign that saw him post a silly 117-1856-23 line. Those yardage and TD totals both rank top 6 in NCAA history. Smith’s 2019 junior season was just as impressive. The raw numbers weren’t as big: 68 catches for 1,256 yards and 14 TDs. But they came alongside a pair of 2020 1st-round picks in Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs, plus a healthy Jaylen Waddle. Smith led that stacked squad in yards and TDs, ranking 2nd to Jeudy in catches. The tape shows a combination of ankle-breaking releases, silky smooth routes and uncanny ball skills. Smith wins at all levels of the field and is much better in contested situations than you’d expect from a man of his size. While the weight adds risk to his NFL projection, Smith is a guy we’re not gonna bet against. He’s simply good at football. The Eagles have now gone WR in the 1st round in 2 straight drafts after going with Jalen Reagor at #21 last year. Those guys should be the team’s top 2 WRs going forward.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

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