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DeVonta Smith - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

DeVonta Smith
PHI

WR PHI

#49 Wide Receiver

111 Projected Points

ADP: 7.1
Bye: 14
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: N/A
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 172
40 Time: Not Available

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#49 Wide Receiver

111 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
7.1 61 814 5 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

94.4

DS Projection

111

Consensus

38 other sites
0

High Ceiling

161

Ceiling Likelihood

High
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Smith landed in an offense that didn’t see anyone reach 80 targets in 2020. Greg Ward led the team with just a 13.2% share. Zach Ertz and Travis Fulgham ranked 2nd and 3rd on that team in targets. Opportunity is ripe for the picking.
  • After trading down from 6 to 12 ahead of the draft, the Eagles moved back up to 10 to secure Smith.
  • The Slim Reaper set SEC records in 2020 with 1,856 receiving yards and 23 TD catches, each of which rank among the top 6 all-time in the NCAA.
  • Smith posted 8 games of 2+ TD catches and cracked 200 receiving yards 3 times as a senior.
  • Smith also led the 2019 Crimson Tide in receiving yards (1,256) and TDs (14), ahead of Jaylen Waddle, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs.
  • Smith spent his first 2 Alabama seasons as a teammate of Jalen Hurts. That said, they saw minimal game time together. Smith caught just 8 passes in 2017, Hurts’ final season as the Tide starter -- then broke out as a sophomore with Tua Tagovailoa behind center.
  • Since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002, we have seen 72 WRs drafted in Round 1. The rookie-year median for that group is 5.31 targets per game (a 16-game pace of 85). Of those 72 WRs, 23 have gone inside the top 10. That group’s median sits at 7.19 targets per game (16-game pace: 115). Those 115 targets would have tied for 20th among wideouts last season.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

We could dig deeper into the numbers on Smith, but that seems unnecessary at this point. (You can check out his full Prospect Scouting Report here.) The only real question on him is whether Smith can buck history and succeed in the NFL at a size that we just haven’t seen work. The Eagles clearly believe he can, as they jumped ahead of the Giants to make sure they got him. That lands Smith on a team that saw no player reach 80 targets last season. The coaching staff is new. The QB has just 3 full NFL starts behind him. And we’ll have to wait to see exactly how much time Smith spends at different WR spots. But early reports point to Nick Sirianni moving his WRs around quite a bit, and we saw Smith do quite well in just such a malleable role last year. As long as you don’t have to reach too early, Smith carries immediate fantasy intrigue.

His FFPC best-ball ADP of WR33 as of this writing teeters on the edge of too early, though -- 2 spots behind Odell Beckham Jr. and 9 ahead of Brandin Cooks.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Eagles traded up from #12 to #10 to select Alabama WR DeVonta Smith. You know the concern with Smith: He weighed in at 170 pounds at Alabama’s Pro Day and 166 at the medical recheck in Indianapolis. That puts him in a bucket that hasn’t produced many high-end fantasy assets. DeSean Jackson is the only WR 175 pounds or lighter to top 1,000 yards over the past 10 seasons. But Smith is also 6’0 with a 78.5-inch wingspan that lands him in the 72nd percentile among NFL WRs. So he’s skinny, but not small. And he puts big check marks in the production and tape boxes. Smith is coming off a Heisman-winning 2020 campaign that saw him post a silly 117-1856-23 line. Those yardage and TD totals both rank top 6 in NCAA history. Smith’s 2019 junior season was just as impressive. The raw numbers weren’t as big: 68 catches for 1,256 yards and 14 TDs. But they came alongside a pair of 2020 1st-round picks in Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs, plus a healthy Jaylen Waddle. Smith led that stacked squad in yards and TDs, ranking 2nd to Jeudy in catches. The tape shows a combination of ankle-breaking releases, silky smooth routes and uncanny ball skills. Smith wins at all levels of the field and is much better in contested situations than you’d expect from a man of his size. While the weight adds risk to his NFL projection, Smith is a guy we’re not gonna bet against. He’s simply good at football. The Eagles have now gone WR in the 1st round in 2 straight drafts after going with Jalen Reagor at #21 last year. Those guys should be the team’s top 2 WRs going forward.

View all DeVonta Smith Shark Bites »

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