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George Kittle - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGeorge Kittle's Basic Stats

George Kittle
ADP: 5.5
Bye: 9
Experience: 6 Yr(s)
Age: 29.9
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 250
40 Time: 4.52
Speed Score: 117.70
SPARQx (Rank): 124.10 (91%)
Burst Score (Rank): 127.30 (91%)
Agility Score (Rank): 10.83 (99%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.36 (96%)

George Kittle's Weekly Outlook

Week 5 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.9 45.7 0.3 6.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.5 49 0.3 6.7

George Kittle's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#5 Tight End

106.7 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
5.5 56.3 784.7 5 1.1 0.9

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGeorge Kittle's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

Kittle is coming off a big 2022, finishing second among TEs in both PPR and non-PPR points per game.

There are reasons to be wary of him heading into this year, though.

For starters, he scored a career-high 11 TDs on a career-high and unsustainable 18.3% TD rate. Expect negative regression in that department.

Kittle registered an 18.9% target share last season – a nice mark for a TE but way down from his 24+% target shares the previous four years.

He faces stiff target competition in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk in what again figures to be a run-leaning 49ers offense.


What We Learned Last Year
  • Kittle finished second among TEs in PPR and non-PPR points per game last year.
  • He missed the first two games of the season after hurting his groin a few days before the opener.
  • Over the final 15 games of the season, Kittle compiled:
    • 86 targets
    • 60 catches
    • 765 yards
    • 11 TDs
  • Here’s where those marks ranked among TEs from Week 3 on:
    • Targets: fifth
    • Catches: fourth
    • Yards: third
    • TDs: first
  • The career-high 11 TDs were obviously a big part of Kittle’s 2022 fantasy production. He hadn’t topped six scores in any of his first five NFL seasons.
  • Kittle scored on 18.3% of his receptions last year after registering a 6.0% TD rate over those previous five seasons. (League-wide TD rate for TEs is around 8.4%.)
  • Kittle tied for fourth among TEs with 23 red-zone targets last year and led the position with 11 end-zone targets.
  • Based on his usage, he registered 6.2 expected TDs, which tied for fifth among TEs.
  • Kittle drew 18.9% of 49ers targets in his 15 games. That was his lowest mark since his 2017 rookie season. His target shares by year:
    • 2017: 10.8%
    • 2018: 26.5%
    • 2019: 28.1%
    • 2020: 25.7%
    • 2021: 24.8%
    • 2022: 18.9%
  • In seven games with a healthy Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey last year, Kittle saw just 12.3% of 49ers targets.
  • He was super productive with QB Brock Purdy. In Purdy’s eight full games (including playoffs), Kittle averaged:
    • 3.9 catches
    • 55.9 yards
    • 0.9 TDs
  • Kittle averaged just 5.3 targets on a 19.1% target share in those eight games.

What to Expect in 2023
  • There are questions at QB in San Francisco. Purdy is working back from March surgery on his throwing elbow. If he’s not ready for Week 1, it’s not even clear if Trey Lance would start over Sam Darnold, who signed a one-year deal with the ‘Niners in free agency.
  • The fewer games Lance starts, the better for Kittle’s fantasy value. San Francisco would likely run significantly more with Lance under center. Based on last year, the more games Purdy starts, the better for Kittle’s fantasy value
  • McCaffrey, Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk return for the ‘Niners this season. It’s stiff target competition for Kittle.
  • The 49ers have ranked bottom-7 in pass attempts in three of the last four seasons, including each of the last two. Overall passing volume is a concern for Kittle.
  • Kittle turns 30 in August. Our aging-curve research shows that TEs of Kittle’s quality generally produce at around 80-85% of their peak at age 30. That’s down from 90% at age 29.
  • Kittle has only once played a full NFL season. He’s missed a 16 games total over the last six years.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

George Kittle, TE SF

11:33pm EDT 9/21/23

George Kittle gets rolling in Week 3

49ers TE George Kittle totaled just six catches for 49 yards over the first two games of the season. He topped both of those marks in Thursday night's win over the Giants, hauling in seven balls for 90 yards. The big difference? San Francisco was without WR Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle drew nine targets for a 24.3% share vs. New York -- well up from his 16.7% target share over the first two weeks of the season. Kittle is an elite fantasy option whenever Aiyuk, WR Deebo Samuel, or RB Christian McCaffrey are out. He'll be inconsistent when all three of those guys are healthy. We'll see if Aiyuk is able to make it back for Week 4.

View all George Kittle Shark Bites »

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder) is officially inactive for tonight's game vs. the Giants. He seemed relatively close to playing tonight, so we're tentatively expecting him back for Week 4. Aiyuk's absence should make San Francisco's offense even more concentrated, with RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, and TE George Kittle dominating touches.

View all Brandon Aiyuk Shark Bites »

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk exploded in Week 1 vs. the Steelers, hauling in all 8 targets for 129 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Teammate Deebo Samuel logged 5 catches on 7 targets for 55 of his own, and yards TE George Kittle had a quiet contest with just 3 catches on 6 targets for 19 yards. Despite the best efforts of Steelers CB Patrick Peterson, Aiyuk could not be stopped en route to setting a new career-high in yards in Sunday’s win. As a whole, the 49ers’ offense fired on all cylinders. Next week, the 49ers will face off against the Rams, a division opponent they beat in both of their matchups last season.

View all Brandon Aiyuk Shark Bites »

49ers TE George Kittle (groin) is active for today’s game vs. the Steelers. He was limited in practice all week, but we’ve heard nothing to suggest that he’ll be limited today. Considering the league-wide issues at TE, Kittle belongs in Week 1 fantasy lineups.

View all George Kittle Shark Bites »

49ers TE George Kittle (groin) is expected to play vs. the Steelers today, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. Kittle was limited in practice all week and comes with a bit more risk than usual today. But he belongs in fantasy lineups, especially considering all the other injury issues at TE.

View all George Kittle Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

George Kittle, TE SF
Dynasty MVP 64.6
Position Rank #11 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
236
331
489
Dynasty Write-up
Kittle's hot and cold tendency stuck around in 2022, although he finished strong with a career-high 11 TDs. He’s not "old" at 29, but long-term QB questions linger given Brock Purdy's elbow injury. Kittle is under contract through the 2025 season.
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