Bottom Line

Kittle is coming off a big 2022, finishing second among TEs in both PPR and non-PPR points per game.

There are reasons to be wary of him heading into this year, though.

For starters, he scored a career-high 11 TDs on a career-high and unsustainable 18.3% TD rate. Expect negative regression in that department.

Kittle registered an 18.9% target share last season – a nice mark for a TE but way down from his 24+% target shares the previous four years.

He faces stiff target competition in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk in what again figures to be a run-leaning 49ers offense.

What We Learned Last Year

• Kittle finished second among TEs in PPR and non-PPR points per game last year.
• He missed the first two games of the season after hurting his groin a few days before the opener.
• Over the final 15 games of the season, Kittle compiled:
  • 86 targets
  • 60 catches
  • 765 yards
  • 11 TDs
• Here’s where those marks ranked among TEs from Week 3 on:
  • Targets: fifth
  • Catches: fourth
  • Yards: third
  • TDs: first
• The career-high 11 TDs were obviously a big part of Kittle’s 2022 fantasy production. He hadn’t topped six scores in any of his first five NFL seasons.
• Kittle scored on 18.3% of his receptions last year after registering a 6.0% TD rate over those previous five seasons. (League-wide TD rate for TEs is around 8.4%.)
• Kittle tied for fourth among TEs with 23 red-zone targets last year and led the position with 11 end-zone targets.
• Based on his usage, he registered 6.2 expected TDs, which tied for fifth among TEs.
• Kittle drew 18.9% of 49ers targets in his 15 games. That was his lowest mark since his 2017 rookie season. His target shares by year:
  • 2017: 10.8%
  • 2018: 26.5%
  • 2019: 28.1%
  • 2020: 25.7%
  • 2021: 24.8%
  • 2022: 18.9%
• In seven games with a healthy Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey last year, Kittle saw just 12.3% of 49ers targets.
• He was super productive with QB Brock Purdy. In Purdy’s eight full games (including playoffs), Kittle averaged:
  • 3.9 catches
  • 55.9 yards
  • 0.9 TDs
• Kittle averaged just 5.3 targets on a 19.1% target share in those eight games.

What to Expect in 2023

• There are questions at QB in San Francisco. Purdy is working back from March surgery on his throwing elbow. If he’s not ready for Week 1, it’s not even clear if Trey Lance would start over Sam Darnold, who signed a one-year deal with the ‘Niners in free agency.
• The fewer games Lance starts, the better for Kittle’s fantasy value. San Francisco would likely run significantly more with Lance under center. Based on last year, the more games Purdy starts, the better for Kittle’s fantasy value
• McCaffrey, Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk return for the ‘Niners this season. It’s stiff target competition for Kittle.
• The 49ers have ranked bottom-7 in pass attempts in three of the last four seasons, including each of the last two. Overall passing volume is a concern for Kittle.
• Kittle turns 30 in August. Our aging-curve research shows that TEs of Kittle’s quality generally produce at around 80-85% of their peak at age 30. That’s down from 90% at age 29.
• Kittle has only once played a full NFL season. He’s missed a 16 games total over the last six years.