Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Smith-Njigba turned in an underwhelming rookie season, in terms of both usage and fantasy production.

The target competition remains tough in 2024 with WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett back. But this will be a brand new offense under first-time NFL OC Ryan Grubb. And Smith-Njigba is a good bet to take a step forward in his second season.

Cheaper in fantasy drafts this year than last, JSN is a nice post-hype target.

What We Learned Last Year

• Smith-Njigba finished his rookie season with 63 catches, 628 yards, and four TDs in 17 games.
• He ranked 61st among WRs in PPR points per game; 69th in non-PPR.
• Smith-Njigba broke a bone in his left wrist in a preseason game on August 19. He had surgery on August 22 and was sidelined for about a week.
• JSN was ready for the start of the season but didn’t top a 66% route rate in any of his first three games.
• He registered a 75% route rate in Week 4 and was at 73% or higher in 12 of his final 14 games.
• From Week 4 on, Smith-Njigba ranked 39th among WRs in PPR points and 44th in non-PPR.
• He averaged 5.6 targets per game on a 16.7% share across those final 14 games.
  • D.K. Metcalf led the Seahawks with 7.7 targets per game over that span. Tyler Lockett ranked second with 7.2 targets per game.
• Smith-Njigba’s 1.32 yards per route ranked 57th among 80 qualifying WRs and 11th among 14 qualifying rookies.
• He played 68% of his snaps in the slot.
• Smith-Njigba’s 6.4-yard average target depth ranked 77th among those 80 WRs. Only 11 of his 93 targets came 20+ yards downfield.
• JSN’s 5.9 yards after the catch per reception ranked 10th among those 80 WRs.
• The Seahawks made Smith-Njigba the first WR off the board with the 20th overall pick of the 2023 draft. His 2022 junior season was wiped out by a hamstring injury, but JSN racked up 95 catches for 1,606 yards and nine TDs as a sophomore, out-producing both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Seahawks return QB Geno Smith and last year’s top six targets:
  • Smith-Njigba
  • WR D.K. Metcalf
  • WR Tyler Lockett
  • TE Noah Fant
  • RB Ken Walker
  • RB Zach Charbonnet
• Seattle has a brand new coaching staff led by HC Mike Macdonald and OC Ryan Grubb. That can’t be bad news for Smith-Njigba after the underwhelming usage last year.
• This will be Grubb’s first NFL coaching job.
  • He’s been coaching in various offensive roles for various schools since 2003.
  • Grubb most recently served as the University of Washington’s OC. Those Huskies teams both ranked top 13 in the nation in total yards and points per game.
  • They were especially lethal through the air, ranking first and then second in passing yards per game. Washington ranked top five in pass attempts both years.
• Grubb said in early June that his Seahawks offense might not be as pass-heavy.
  • “So when you talk about some of the run-pass balance, you have backs like (Kenneth Walker III) and Zach (Charbonnet), you are pretty excited about your ability to run the ball. So I think for us we are trying to meld some things together with some things we’ve done in the past, whether it’s a long time ago or even just the last few years and get the guys to understand that we want to be a physically dominant team and at the same time have that same explosive, confusing element that people are used to.”
• Grubb loved throwing deep at Washington. QB Michael Penix ranked fourth in passes of 20+ yards in 2022 and then led the country in 2023.
• We’ll see exactly what that means for Smith-Njibga this year. It’s worth noting that he had just a 9.3-yard average target depth in that big 2021 season but earned a 99.9 Pro Football Focus receiving grade on deep targets.
• While Metcalf is in his prime at 26, Lockett turns 32 in September and is in decline.
• Smith-Njigba turned 22 in February. Our aging-curve data says Round 1 WRs go from 77% peak production at age-21 to 94% at age-22.