Bottom Line

Smith-Njigba is an exciting prospect. He out-produced Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave as a true sophomore at Ohio State, possesses elite short-area quickness, and was the 20th overall pick of this year’s draft.

The issue for his 2023 fantasy production is that he joins a Seahawks WR corps led by D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Could Smith-Njigba carve out a big enough role alongside those guys to be a fantasy difference maker this season? Sure.

Is that the most likely scenario? Nope.

Smith-Njibga is best treated as a WR4 with upside.

What We Learned Last Year

• A lingering hamstring injury limited Smith-Njigba to just 60 snaps last season.
• But he turned in a massive true sophomore season in 2021: 95 catches, 1,606 yards, and 9 TDs.
• That season is even more impressive when you consider that it came alongside a pair of 2022 first-round picks in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba easily beat both Wilson and Olave in catches and yards, as well as yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• In fact, Smith-Njigba led all 199 WRs in the country with 40+ targets in both yards per route and PFF grade in 2021.
• Smith-Njigba was a five-star prospect in the 2020 recruiting class after totaling an insane 201 catches, 3,922 yards, and 55 TDs in his final TWO high school seasons.
• He checked into the Combine at 6’1, 196 pounds and registered elite marks in the agility drills: a 96th percentile 3-cone time and 97th percentile short shuttle. Smith-Njigba didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the Combine but recorded a 4.48-second time at his Pro Day.
• The Seahawks made him the 20th overall pick and the first WR off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft.

What to Expect in 2023

• Smith-Njibga joins a Seahawks WR corps with a couple of high-end talents in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf has finished as a top-25 WR in PPR points per game in three straight seasons. Lockett has done it in five straight.
• But Smith-Njigba is a heavy favorite to win the No. 3 WR job right out of the gate. His competition: Dee Eskridge, Dareke Young, Cody Thompson, Cade Johnson.
• OC Shane Waldron and QB Geno Smith both return for the 2023 season.
• The 2022 Seahawks ranked:
  • 15th in pass attempts
  • 12th in pass rate
  • fifth in situation-neutral pass rate
  • eighth in Pass Rate Over Expected
• Behind Lockett and Metcalf, Seattle’s other WRs combined for just 75 targets last year.
• But the team’s top three TEs totaled 135 targets – a 23.6% share well above the league-wide average TE target share of around 20%.
• Expect Smith-Njigba to siphon a bunch of those targets this season.
• Prior to becoming Seahawks OC, Shane Waldron spent four seasons under Rams HC Sean McVay, whose offenses finished near the top of the league in deployment of 3-WR sets.
• Expect more 3-WR sets in Seattle this year, getting Smith-Njigba on the field for most passing plays.