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K.J. Hamler - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

K.J. Hamler
DEN

WR DEN

#88 Wide Receiver

55 Projected Points

ADP: 21.11
Bye: 11
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 22
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 178
40 Time: Not Available

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#88 Wide Receiver

55 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
21.11 33 415 2 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

44

DS Projection

55

Consensus

38 other sites
52.6

High Ceiling

99

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Hamler caught 30 of 56 targets for 381 yards and 3 scores in 13 games as a rookie last year.
  • He ranked 92nd among WRs in PPR points per game and 86th in non-PPR.
  • Among 84 WRs with 50+ targets last season, Hamler ranked 76th in yards per route run and 83rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • Hamler dropped 18.9% of his catchable targets -- dead last among those 84 WRs.
  • He missed 3 games last year: Week 1 with a hamstring injury, Week 6 with another hamstring and Week 17 with a concussion.
  • He also tore his ACL as a high school senior and missed last year’s Combine with a hamstring injury.
  • The injuries are an even bigger concern considering Hamler is just 5’11 and 178 pounds.
  • He had 2 productive seasons at Penn State, leading the team in catches (42) and receiving yards (754) as a redshirt freshman and leading in all major receiving categories with a 56-904-8 line the following year.
  • He averaged 16.9 yards per catch over those 2 seasons. And, while we never got a 40 time on him, Hamler has elite speed.
  • He faces stiff target competition in 2021. Courtland Sutton is on track to return by Week 1 after missing all but 31 snaps last season with a torn ACL and MCL. WR Jerry Jeudy figures to remain ahead of Hamler in the pecking order after garnering 113 targets as a rookie last year. And TE Noah Fant is still on the ascent heading into year 3.
  • Hamler figures to battle Tim Patrick for #3 WR duties
  • The Broncos traded for QB Teddy Bridgewater in April. He’ll compete with QB Drew Lock for the starting job.
  • Bridgewater sports a career 66.5% completion rate and 7.3 yards per attempt average -- much better than Lock’s 59.1% completion rate and 6.6 yards per attempt through 2 seasons.
  • Whether Lock takes a significant step forward in 2021 or Bridgewater beats him out, Denver should get better QB play this season than last.
  • OC Pat Shurmur returns for his 2nd season with the Broncos in 2021.
    • The 2020 Broncos ranked 19th in pass attempts and 20th in pass rate.
    • Shurmur has tended to be a pass-leaning play caller, with 9 of his previous 11 NFL offenses finishing top 16 in pass attempts.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Hamler disappointed as a rookie. He missed 3 games with 3 separate injuries, caught just 30 passes and was near the bottom of the league in most efficiency metrics.

He was a nice-looking prospect coming out of Penn State, so we’re not throwing in the towel. But Courtland Sutton, Jerry Judy, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant are serious target competition. And QB play is still a question in Denver.

Monitor Hamler’s progress this summer, but he’s probably not worth a pick in your fantasy draft.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Broncos WR K.J. Hamler sustained a concussion in the 1st half of Sunday's game vs. the Chargers. We'll see if the rookie can get cleared for next weekend's finale vs. the Raiders.

View all K.J. Hamler Shark Bites »

Broncos WR K.J. Hamler (hamstring) is out for Sunday's game against the Patriots. The early rule-out hints at a multi-week injury. Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton will operate as Denver's top 3 WRs this weekend.

View all K.J. Hamler Shark Bites »

Broncos WR K.J. Hamler was knocked out by a hamstring injury in the 1st half of Thursday night's game against the Jets. He was replaced by WR DaeSean Hamilton, who finished with 1 catch on 3 targets for 9 yards. WR Tim Patrick broke out for a 6-113-1 line in this one. We'll see when Hamler is able to return.

View all K.J. Hamler Shark Bites »

Broncos WR K.J. Hamler has a hamstring injury and will be out "a couple of weeks," HC Vic Fangio said Thursday. That'll hurt the rookie's chances of making an early-season impact. And hamstring injuries have a tendency to linger. We'll keep an eye on Hamler, but he's not worth a pick in redrafts right now.

View all K.J. Hamler Shark Bites »

The Broncos added Penn State WR K.J. Hamler in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft. He joins 1st-rounder Jerry Jeudy in Denver. A hamstring injury prevented Hamler from running at the Combine. But if he had, he might have challenged Henry Ruggs for the fastest man in Indy. He’s a blur on tape and is also lightning quick in and out of his breaks. A 2016 torn ACL cost him his final high school season and had him redshirted for his 1st year at Penn State. But Hamler led the Nittany Lions with 42 catches and 754 yards as a redshirt freshman in 2018. Then he posted a 56-904-8 line this past year, accounting for 26% of the team’s receptions, 31% of the receiving yards and 32% of the receiving TDs. Not turning 21 until July, Hamler is 1 of the youngest WR prospects in this year’s class. The big concern is his size: 5’11 and 178 pounds with 17th percentile arm length. Only 3 sub-180-pound WRs — DeSean Jackson, John Brown and Jamison Crowder — have posted multiple 800+ yard seasons over the past 10 years.

View all K.J. Hamler Shark Bites »

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