Leonard Fournette - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats

RB TB

#28 Running Back

143 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available

Bye: 9

Experience: 4 Yr(s)

Age: 26

Height: 6'0"

Weight: 228

40 Time: 4.51

Weekly Outlook

Low Floor

8.1

DS Projection

13.7

Consensus

38 other sites
14

Low Ceiling

16.6

Rest of
Season

12.9

Week 14 Projections

Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	Fantasy Pts
60.8	0.5	5.2	33.8	0.2	13.7

Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	Fantasy Pts
62	0.5	4.1	31	0.1	12.9

Week 12
Fournette was facing one of the best run defenses in the league. But with Tom Brady being unable to have consistent success through the air, the team leaned on Fournette. He ended up with 4 TDs and one of the best fantasy games by a RB this season. With the Bucs OL overmatching the Indy front 7, Fournette frequently found space to run. And when the Colts were getting pressure on Brady, Fournette was the primary outlet receiver in this game. He led the Bucs in catches while finishing 2nd in targets and yards, which was largely due to the WRs having little success in this matchup.

With almost 1,000 yards and 8 TDs on the year, Forurnette will continue to be a lock for weekly fantasy lineups. He’s handled at least 16 touches in 7 of his last 8 games after being in more of a committee during the first 3 weeks of the season. He’s also posted at least 74 total yards in 7 of his 8 games, so his floor has been quite high. After an easy matchup this week against the Falcons, he’ll face three top-9 defenses in Weeks 14-16 before a cake matchup against the Jets in Week 17. But regardless of matchup, his dual threat role makes him impossible to bench.

Week 11
Fournette carried the ball 10 times for 35 yards and caught 6 balls for 39 more yards in the Week 11 drubbing of the Giants. Fournette started the game and was a focal point of the impressive opening drive, but he shared much of the remaining part of the game with RB Ronald Jones, who vultured a 3rd quarter TD.
Jones got an extended run with the game no longer in doubt, so there shouldn’t be much to worry about just yet. Fournette is still going to be the starter moving forward, but a tough matchup against the stout Colts run D could make for a long afternoon in Indianapolis.

Week 8
It was a less than stellar week for Fournette against the Saints, producing just 26 yards on his 8 carries. He also caught 3 of his 5 targets for 17 yards.

This was the first time in the last 5 weeks that Fournette didn't see double-digit targets. It was also his worst rushing yardage performance over that span. He gained 80 or more yards in 3 of the 4 games.

Going forward, Fournette should be fine. He still dominated the RB touches in a game where Tampa Bay trailed by a good margin. In neutral or positive game scripts his work will normalize. In leagues where you were already starting Fournette, there is little reason to divert course after this contest.

Week 7
Fournette kept rolling in Sunday’s blowout win over the Bears. He toted it 15 times for 81 yards, including a 2-yard TD plunge in the 1st quarter. He added 2 catches on 4 targets for 9 yards.

And his game could have been bigger. Fournette had another shot at the goal line but was stuffed. And he saw an end zone target that fell incomplete. He was also pulled early in the 4th quarter, ceding the final 5 carries of the game to RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn.

Fournette still finished the week as a top 12 RB across fantasy scoring formats. He’s now finished as a top 15 PPR RB in 4 straight weeks and is up to RB9 in total PPR points.

Playing a fantasy-friendly role in an elite offense, Fournette should continue to produce as a low-end RB1.

Week 5
Fournette continued to establish himself as the #1 option in Tampa Bay’s backfield. Rushing 12 times for 67 yards, Fournette added 4-43 receiving on 5 targets. And the former Jag finally found the end zone, this time on a well-blocked goal line run. Ronald Jones mixed in for just 5 carries and didn’t touch the ball until late in the 1st. Gio Bernard did check in on a 3rd down in the red zone and promptly score on a route out of the backfield. His presence might prove frustrating going forward, but it’s clear Tom Brady has no issue targeting Fournette both when lined up at WR or in the backfield. Fournette enters Week 6 (at Philly) with 11 PPR points in 4 of 5 games.

Week 4
Fournette saw a massive workload in this one, likely due to the absence of Gio Bernard, the weather conditions and his effectiveness. He saw an 82% snap rate in this game, and he proved that he still has the juice when he gets a full workload. He was the highlight of the offense against the Patriots in a game where Brady and the receivers failed to ever get consistently going due to the rain and the constantly changing schemes in the secondary. Fournette was productive throughout and finished with over 135 total yards on 23 total touches (20 rushes for 91 yards and 3 catches for 47 yards). This was Fournette’s highest number of touches, highest rushing yardage total and highest receiving yardage totals he has put up this season. Fournette will have another opportunity to produce for the Bucs and fantasy managers this weekend against a Dolphins defense that has given up nearly 500 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs through four games this season. We have him ranked at RB16 this week against Miami. His next three games on the schedule are MIA, @PHI, CHI.

Week 2
Fournette rushed 11 times for 52 yards in the Bucs' Week 2 win over the Falcons, adding 4 receptions for 24 additional yards.
Fournette is the most trusted Bucs RB, which is huge for a team QBed by Tom Brady. He has now out-touched backup RB Ronald Jones 29-11 through 2 games. Fournette can have some big games going forward as this looks to be among the most dynamic, high-scoring offenses in the league.
Fournette should be used as an RB2/flex option and has a decent Week 3 matchup against the Rams, who allowed David Montgomery to run all over them in Week 1.

Week 1
Fournette opened the season with the starting role over RB Ronald Jones II. Neither of them was especially effective in a rushing attack that totaled just 14 carries. Fournette totaled 9 rushes for 32 yards. More importantly, he was targeted 7 times and caught 5 passes for 27 yards.

Despite the Week 1 usage, Jones will be the starting RB Sunday against the Falcons. Expect Fournette to share the rushing load. Last season, he had 6 TDs on the ground. His pace from Week 1 would get him close to Fournette’s best receiving year: 2019 with 76 catches for 52 yards. However, he hasn’t caught a TD pass since 2018.

Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

Fournette joined the Bucs just prior to Week 1 of last season.
After a big Week 2 (12-103-2) against Carolina, Fournette sustained an ankle injury. He missed Weeks 4-6.
After the season, HC Bruce Arians revealed that the team nearly cut Fournette for his attitude late in the season. He was deactivated for Week 14.
Ronald Jones handled the lead back role for most of the year. He missed 2 games (broken finger/COVID-19 list, Weeks 15/16).
With Fournette and Jones active from Week 7-Week 12, Jones out-carried the former Jag 65-45.
Tampa Bay went pass heavy in year 1 with Tom Brady. The team called a run just 36.3% of the time during the regular season (3rd-lowest mark league-wide).
“Playoff Lenny” really took off for the Bucs in January/February — with help from a RoJo quad injury that kept him out of the Wild Card Round. In the postseason, Fournette out-touched Jones 82-35. He out-targeted Jones 21-2.
Overall, Fournette ranked a subpar 35th out of 48 RBs in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating (min. 100 attempts).
As a receiver, he ranked 19th out of 28 RBs with 40+ targets in yards per route run. With 5 drops, Fournette’s volume (47 targets) was his saving grace.
Ronald Jones’ pass catching performance flopped. He ranked last among RB qualifiers in PFF’s receiving grades; bottom-8 in YPC and yards per route run.
In March, the cash-strapped Bucs re-signed Fournette to a 1-year deal worth $3.25 million.
In April, Gio Bernard joined the team on a 1-year pact. The sure-handed Bernard joins a Bucs backfield that just “led” the league in RB drop rate (~15%).
In May, HC Bruce Arians said Fournette would be “splitting time” with Ronald Jones. Look for this backfield to remain fluid.
The Bucs retain the same 11 on offense after re-signing Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

The Bucs ranked 3rd in scoring last year; 7th in total yards. They’ll run back the entire starting unit this fall.

So the macro environment looks good for Fournette. Pair that with his strong postseason run, and we’ll consider the former Jag the favorite for backfield touches.

It’s just unwise to believe he’ll earn the lead back role and never relinquish it. The Bucs remain high on Ronald Jones. And adding Gio Bernard to the mix further clouds Fournette’s receiving upside.

Ultimately, Fournette looks like no more than a low-end RB2, albeit one that makes sense as a mid-round target for “Zero RB” drafters.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bucs RB Leonard Fournette will start today's game vs. the Rams, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. The title of "starter" doesn't mean much, as Ronald Jones can attest. Jones got the start last week and ended up carrying just 6 times. But we were already expecting Fournette to operate as Tampa's lead back today, and this news only helps his Week 3 outlook. Per Rapoport, Jones has had a "frustrating couple of weeks, including 1 play last week that drew the ire of the coaches when he went out of bounds right before the 1st-down marker."

View all Leonard Fournette Shark Bites »

RB Leonard Fournette has re-signed a 1-year deal with the Bucs. He gets $3.25 million with a chance to make up to $4 million via incentives, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Fournette had a rocky regular season in Tampa last year but was awesome in 4 postseason contests, carrying 64 times for 300 yards (4.7 YPC) and 3 TDs and hauling in 18 of 21 targets for 148 yards (8.2 YPC) and another score. He figures to operate in a committee alongside RB Ronald Jones in 2021, but Fournette's pass-catching ability makes him the more attractive fantasy target. Check out our updated projections for the Bucs backfield.

View all Leonard Fournette Shark Bites »

Bucs RB Leonard Fournette is a healthy scratch for today's game vs. the Vikings. That leaves RBs LeSean McCoy and Ke'Shawn Vaughn behind Ronald Jones on the depth chart. HC Bruce Arians said during the bye week that he wanted to get Jones the ball more -- and it looks like he's ready to do it.

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Bucs HC Bruce Arians said Monday that Leonard Fournette is now the team's "nickel" RB, playing in "hurry-up and obvious passing situations." Fournette racked up 6 catches on 7 targets in last weekend's win over the Raiders, while RB Ronald Jones caught just 1 of 2 targets, dropping the other. Fournette also trailed Jones by just 2 carries (13 to 11), so it seems to us that he was more than just the "nickel" RB. We'll see how the situation evolves over the next few weeks. Jones has run well this season and might hang on to lead ball-carrying duties. But Fournette already appears locked in as the primary pass-catching back.

View all Leonard Fournette Shark Bites »

Bucs RB Leonard Fournette (ankle) put in a full week of practice and isn’t listed on the final injury report. HC Bruce Arians said Friday that Fournette will "reassume his role” in this weekend’s game against the Raiders. We’ll see exactly what that means. Fournette would be a flier in Week 7 fantasy lineups. His return does add some risk to RB Ronald Jones’ profile.

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