Bottom Line

Brown missed five games and finished 30th among WRs in PPR points per game in his Cardinals debut last year.

But he spiked to WR14 in games without DeAndre Hopkins, who was released in May.

That leaves Brown as a strong favorite to lead Arizona in receiving – and potentially see a boatload of targets.

This offense might not be very good, especially as long as QB Kyler Murray is out rehabbing last year’s knee injury. But volume should propel Brown to WR2-3 level production.

What We Learned Last Year

• Brown missed five games in the middle of last season with a chipped bone in the arch of his left foot.
• He compiled 67 catches for 709 yards and three TDs in his 12 games, ranking 30th among WRs in PPR points per game and 37th in non-PPR.
• Brown was much more productive in his games without DeAndre Hopkins. Here are his per-game averages:
  • Four games with Hopkins:
    • 7.5 targets (19.7% share)
    • 4.3 catches
    • 39 yards
    • 0 TDs
  • Eight without Hopkins:
    • 9.6 targets (23.8% share)
    • 6.3 catches
    • 69 yards
    • 0.38 TDs
• His averages without Hopkins would have ranked WR14 in PPR and WR20 in non-PPR.
• Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets last season, Brown ranked:
  • 45th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • 46th in yards per route run
• The 1.44 yards per route run was Brown’s worst mark in four NFL seasons. The PFF grade was his second-worst.
• The Cardinals acquired Brown – along with the 100th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft – from the Ravens in exchange for the 23rd overall pick.
• In his first three NFL seasons with the Ravens, Brown registered these finishes in PPR points per game:
  • 2019: 55th
  • 2020: 47th
  • 2021: 26th

What to Expect in 2023

• The Cardinals released WR DeAndre Hopkins in late May. He averaged 9.1 targets per game across the last three seasons in Arizona.
• The Cardinals return WRs Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch. They also added WR Michael Wilson in the third round of this spring’s draft and signed WR Zach Pascal to a cheap, two-year deal in free agency.
• It’s an underwhelming WR corps, giving Brown a chance to claim a target share around the 23.8% he registered without Hopkins last season – with upside for more.
• Brown will play under a new coaching staff this season after HC Kliff Kingsbury was fired. The Cardinals hired former Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon as HC and named Drew Petzing OC. The 35-year-old Petzing spent the past 9 seasons working under Kevin Stefanski in Minnesota and then Cleveland but has no experience calling plays at any level.
• QB Kyler Murray is working his way back from December’s torn ACL and meniscus in his right knee. He’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season and could miss the first couple of months. QB Colt McCoy is the favorite to start for Arizona until Murray is ready.
• This Cardinals team is expected to be bad. Their 4.5-win total at most sportsbooks is lowest in the league. That’s not particularly good news for Brown’s TD upside. But it does mean that Arizona figures to be trailing early and often, boosting pass volume.