|ADP||Rec||Rec Yds||Rec TDs||100||Fum|
What You Need to Know:
-Brown didn’t show much of a ceiling in 2020. Across 16 games, he never finished higher than WR15.
-He fell shy of just 10 PPR points in 7 games.
-Brown finished the season strong with 6 TDs over the final 6 weeks. Adding averages of 6.8 targets, 4.3 catches and 56.3 yards, he was a top-18 WR across formats over that stretch.
-On the year, Brown — just 5’9, 166 — saw a stunning 13 end zone targets. There simply wasn’t a go-to target on this roster outside of Mark Andrews.
-His overall numbers should have been better, as Brown posted a poor 9.2% drop rate. That was close to double his 2019 tally.
-Look for Brown’s 110 targets to drop in ’21. Baltimore retained run-heavy OC Greg Roman and added WR upgrades in veteran Sammy Watkins and rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace. Mark Andrews enters a contract year.
-Watkins runs hot and cold, with suspect durability and game to game effectiveness. But he turns just 28 in June and has a 2-year history with Roman from their time in Buffalo.
-Bateman is the real issue for Brown. Pro-ready, Bateman is an excellent separator in the short to intermediate ranges.
-Brown will remain the primary deep threat a year after posting a nearly 15-yard average depth of target.
-Lamar Jackson’s 2020 completion rate (64.4), YPA (7.3) and QBR (73.7) each took a step back following a breakout 2019. Improvement will be extra critical for Brown, who’ll play with the team’s best pass catchers in years.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:
Brown’s raw numbers from 2020 look solid. But a lot was volume driven (110 targets) for an offense that had little beyond Brown and Mark Andrews.
That same setup won’t repeat in 2021. Round 1 pick Rashod Bateman brings the polish to contribute right away. If he delivers, Brown’s fantasy stock will certainly take a hit. Another season of run-heavy football in Baltimore only further takes Brown out of the WR3 mix.