Marquise Brown - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Brown improved his fantasy production in each of his 3 seasons with the Ravens. He finished 55th, 47th and then 26th in PPR points per game; 53rd, 41st and 32nd in non-PPR points per game.
• He did that on offenses that ranked 32nd, 32nd and then 9th in pass attempts.
• After earning a solid 18.3% target share as a rookie, Brown has posted big 27.8% and 26.7% shares the past 2 years. Those latter 2 marks ranked 5th and 13th, respectively, among WRs.
• Brown was traded from Baltimore to Arizona during this spring’s draft.
• He joins a Cardinals team that’s ranked 18th, 15th and 18th in pass attempts under HC Kliff Kingsbury the last 3 seasons. Arizona has averaged 5.4 more pass attempts per game than Baltimore during that stretch.
• There are 156 targets (26.4%) available from last year’s Cardinals team with the offseason departures of WR Christian Kirk and RB Chase Edmonds.
• WR DeAndre Hopkins, who averaged 6.9 targets in 9 healthy games last season, is suspended for the first 6 games for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drug policy.
• WR Rondale Moore, WR A.J. Green and TE Zach Ertz return from last year’s Cardinals squad.
• QB Kyler Murray has beat QB Lamar Jackson in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades in each of the last 2 seasons.
  • Murray ranked 3rd among 35 qualifiers last year; Jackson 23rd.
• Murray especially looks like an upgrade in the deep passing game.
  • Just 27% of Brown's targets 20+ yards downfield last season were deemed catchable by Pro Football Focus.
  • Murray, ranked 1st in PFF grade and 2nd in adjusted completion rate (54.9%) on passes 20+ yards downfield last season.
• Murray and Brown played together at Oklahoma in 2017 and 2018. Brown posted 57-1,095-7 and 75-1,318-10 lines those 2 years.
• HC Kliff Kingsbury returns for his 4th season with the Cardinals.
  • Kingsbury has been a pass-leaning play caller, with Arizona ranking 5th, 12th and 4th situation-neutral pass rate over the last 3 years.
• HC Kliff Kingsbury talked up the offensive fit for new WR Marquise Brown. "I think it's similar to what he played in at OU [Oklahoma],” Kingsbury said. "Obviously, position-wise, no-huddle type stuff, signal-based. But he's been in Baltimore for a while now, and so it's just readjusting to that, but I think he feels comfortable in what we're doing.” Kingsbury believes Brown is “ahead of the curve” with the new offense — no surprise considering his experience with Kyler Murray in a similar system.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Brown’s fantasy stock gets a boost with the move from Baltimore to Arizona. The Cardinals project to throw it more than the Ravens. And Kyler Murray looks like an upgrade over Lamar Jackson based on their play over the past couple of seasons.

It’ll be a crowded pass-catching corps after WR DeAndre Hopkins returns from his 6-game suspension. But Brown is capable of getting off to a hot start – and then keeping that momentum rolling.

Now, this hasn’t been the smoothest summer for Brown. He missed about a week of camp with a minor ankle injury. And he was arrested in early August on criminal speeding charges.

He’s on track to be ready for Week 1, though. Barring any setbacks, we're treating him as a borderline WR2 with big spike-week potential.