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Najee Harris - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsNajee Harris's Basic Stats

Najee Harris
ADP: 6.5
Bye: 9
Experience: 3
Age: 26.3
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 242
40 Time: 4.57

Najee Harris's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
62.3 0.46 1.4 8.6 0.05 10.5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
65.9 0.5 2.4 15.8 0.1 11.3

Najee Harris's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#23 Running Back

182.1 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
6.5 242.9 995.5 7.34 3 1.7 22.9 140.5 0.82

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsNajee Harris's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Harris is an unexciting player in an unexciting offense. The OC switch might afford him some slight help, but there’s also a chance he continues losing work to Jaylen Warren. Harris looks fine as a non-PPR RB3 but carries limited upside otherwise.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Let’s start with Harris’ ranking in opportunity share by season:
    • 2021: first among RBs
    • 2022: 13th
    • 2023: 20th
  • That’s the wrong direction, and it tells you a lot about his touch competition.
    • 2021: nonexistent
    • 2022: some undrafted rookie emerges through the year
    • 2023: that undrafted guy claims a much bigger share
  • Warren took over as the lead receiving back in 2023, garnering 74 targets to Harris’ 38. That marked a big change from 2022, when Harris led Warren 53-33.
  • Harris trailed Warren in both yards per catch and yards per carry for the second straight season.
  • Harris also trailed Warren in …
    • Rush yards over expected per carry: 1.11 to 0.31
    • Yards after contact per carry: 3.68 to 3.03
    • Missed tackles forced: 56 to 53
  • Harris did maintain his lead in red-zone work, despite advancement there by Warren.
    • Harris actually increased his share at every level in that range:
      • Carries inside the 20-yard line (52.7% to 59.2%)
      • Carries inside the 10 (53.7% to 59.0%)
      • Carries inside the 5 (37.5% to 43.8%)
  • Despite trailing Warren in a number of efficiency metrics, Harris did improve on his own marks across the board vs. 2022.
    • His RYOE per carry went from -0.43 to +0.31.
    • His YAC per carry climbed to a career-best 3.03 (T-15th among 59 RBs with 70+ carries).
    • His PFF elusive rating improved, and his PFF rushing grade increased for the second straight year.

What to Expect in 2024

  • OC Arthur Smith takes over after Matt Canada ran the offense for the past three years. That will probably keep the run-pass split close to where it’s been recently.
    • Pittsburgh ranked 25th in neutral-situation pass rate across the past three seasons. That included a No. 32 ranking in 2023.
    • Smith’s 2019-20 Titans ranked 31st in that category.
    • His 2021-23 Falcons ranked 30th.
  • There should be enough work to support the fantasy relevance of both Pittsburgh RBs.
    • Bijan Robinson finished last season eighth among RBs in PPR points, with Tyler Allgeier 37th. (They ranked 16th and 45th, respectively, in points per game.)
    • 2022 found Allgeier 30th and Cordarrelle Patterson 32nd in total PPR points
    • 2021: Patterson ninth and Mike Davis 35th.
  • Those Falcons collectively ranked 14th, 12th, and then fourth in total RB PPR points over Smith’s three years.
    • It’s fair to say that neither Harris nor Warren is as good as Robinson. Both are probably at least as good as Allgeier and better than Patterson and Davis.
  • The big question, of course, will be how Harris and Warren split work. We’ll watch for signals throughout the summer.
    • It’s tough to expect a reversal of the receiving work moving so heavily in Warren’s favor.
    • Harris should keep the lead spot in goal-line situations, given his size.
  • There’s no reason to believe this Pittsburgh offense will be exciting. Smith’s Falcons ranked just 26th, 15th, and 26th in scoring; 29th, 24th, and 17th in total yards.
    • Just one of Smith’s five NFL offenses has ranked among the league’s top half in total plays (last year’s Falcons: 13th). Three others have finished 26th or lower.
    • Last year’s Steelers checked in 26th.

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Najee Harris, RB PIT

1:14pm EDT 5/17/24

Najee Harris lighter

Steelers RB Najee Harris has dropped weight this offseason. His trainer estimates that he's at 235 pounds now -- seven pounds lighter than his listed weight. Harris has upped his training time and cleaned up his diet.

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The Steelers have declined the fifth-year option on RB Najee Harris' rookie contract. Harris would have counted about $6.8 million vs. the salary cap had the team exercised his option, so it's not a shocking development. But it's notable that Pittsburgh would rather let him hit the open market than pay what would be the No. 12 RB salary in the league by this year's average annual values. Harris has seen his carries per game and receptions per game decline each of the past two years, while also watching Jaylen Warren gain yards at a more efficient pace. It'll be interesting to see whether Pittsburgh plans any further decline for Harris' 2024 workload in the first season under new OC Arthur Smith. As it stands, Harris and Warren both look fine at best ball ADP. Feel free to mix either player (or both) in to your best ball drafting.

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The Steelers signed WR Cordarrelle Patterson to a two-year, $6 million deal, NFL Network reports. He's reuniting with OC Arthur Smith, who coached Patterson in Atlanta the past three seasons. Patterson averaged 10.2 carries and 3.4 targets per game across his first two years with Smith but just 3.6 carries and 0.9 targets per game last year. That was largely due to the arrival of RB Bijan Robinson -- but Patterson also struggled to just 3.6 yards per carry and 4.2 yards per catch. He turned 33 earlier this month. Patterson is unlikely to be a fantasy asset this season, although he could siphon some work from RB Najee Harris and especially RB Jaylen Warren in the passing game.

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The Steelers are set to hire Arthur Smith as their new OC, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Smith, of course, is coming off a baffling and underwhelming three-year tenure as Falcons HC, compiling a 21-30 record and oftentimes mismanaging his offensive talent. Smith, though, was much more successful as Titans OC in 2019 and 2020. Both of those teams ranked top-12 in both total yards and points, leaning on RB Derrick Henry to finish top-3 in rushing yards both years. We'd expect Smith to bring a run-heavy offense to Pittsburgh -- especially considering the team's questions at QB.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Najee Harris, RB PIT
Dynasty MVP 59.4
Position Rank #75 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
229
306
406
Dynasty Write-up
Harris was out-played by Jaylen Warren at times in 2023. Still, the 'Bama product managed to play all 17 games and hit 1,200+ total yards for the third straight season. He should remain Pittsburgh's lead back for at least one more year. Pittsburgh's O-line looks like a major strength for Harris' contract season.
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