Najee Harris - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Harris is reportedly up to 244 pounds. That’s a significant bump vs. the 232 he weighed at the 2021 Scouting Combine.
• It doesn’t look like he got fat. FWIW, he also says he weighed 240 last year.
• Harris ranked 2nd in the league in carries as a rookie; 7th in carries per game.
• He tied Austin Ekeler for the target lead among RBs. Overall, Harris trailed only Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara in opportunities (carries + targets) per game.
• The Steelers added no RBs in free agency or the NFL Draft. Their only new players at the position vs. last year: undrafted free agents Jaylen Warren and Mataeo Durant.
• RB Anthony McFarland should get a healthier start to this year after tearing an MCL in practice leading up to Week 1 of 2021. He only wound up being active for 2 games. Perhaps a healthier McFarland factored into Pittsburgh’s lack of action in this offseason’s RB market.
• Harris’ 74.7% share of Steelers carries led the league by a significant margin. Joe Mixon ranked 2nd at 67%. His 14.2% target share led all RBs.
• Pittsburgh ran the league’s 3rd most pass-heavy offense, throwing on 63.1% of snaps (including sacks). That was actually down slightly vs. 2020, when Pittsburgh passed on 64.2% of snaps.
• The Steelers ranked just 24th in the league in RB target share last season. Their 16.4% rate climbed vs. 2020 (12.2%) but came in lower than 2019 (21.6%) and fell right in line with other recent seasons.
• In Mitchell Trubisky’s 4 years with Chicago, the Bears targeted RBs at the following rates:
  
  • 28.1%
  • 25.8%
  • 25.3%
  • 14.3%
• Those numbers might be totally irrelevant. But combine them with the rates in Pittsburgh over the same time frame, and there’s no clear reason to expect the mobile Trubisky to be worse for RB target rates than Stationary Ben was.
• Trubisky will battle 1st-round selection Kenny Pickett for the starting job, with Mason Rudolph as a supporting actor.
• Steelers RB Najee Harris expects to play less this season than he did as a rookie. “I will be on the field a lot — but on certain downs, I will not be on the field," Harris said.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Harris adding more than 10 pounds to what was already a large frame is at least slightly alarming. He wasn’t a speed player to begin with, but Harris does play a position where losing any quickness and/or agility hurts. We’re not downgrading the 2nd-year for that aspect until we get reason to. The biggest factor working in Harris’ favor last year was touch volume, and he seems to be in just as good a position on that front this season. His high carry totals certainly open him up to potential injury, but the young back doesn’t look any riskier on that front than other early-round, high-volume runners.