Najee Harris - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Harris is an unexciting player in an unexciting offense. The OC switch might afford him some slight help, but there’s also a chance he continues losing work to Jaylen Warren. Harris looks fine as a non-PPR RB3 but carries limited upside otherwise.

What We Learned Last Year

• Let’s start with Harris’ ranking in opportunity share by season:
  • 2021: first among RBs
  • 2022: 13th
  • 2023: 20th
• That’s the wrong direction, and it tells you a lot about his touch competition.
  • 2021: nonexistent
  • 2022: some undrafted rookie emerges through the year
  • 2023: that undrafted guy claims a much bigger share
• Warren took over as the lead receiving back in 2023, garnering 74 targets to Harris’ 38. That marked a big change from 2022, when Harris led Warren 53-33.
• Harris trailed Warren in both yards per catch and yards per carry for the second straight season.
• Harris also trailed Warren in …
  • Rush yards over expected per carry: 1.11 to 0.31
  • Yards after contact per carry: 3.68 to 3.03
  • Missed tackles forced: 56 to 53
• Harris did maintain his lead in red-zone work, despite advancement there by Warren.
  • Harris actually increased his share at every level in that range:
    • Carries inside the 20-yard line (52.7% to 59.2%)
    • Carries inside the 10 (53.7% to 59.0%)
    • Carries inside the 5 (37.5% to 43.8%)
• Despite trailing Warren in a number of efficiency metrics, Harris did improve on his own marks across the board vs. 2022.
  • His RYOE per carry went from -0.43 to +0.31.
  • His YAC per carry climbed to a career-best 3.03 (T-15th among 59 RBs with 70+ carries).
  • His PFF elusive rating improved, and his PFF rushing grade increased for the second straight year.

What to Expect in 2024

• OC Arthur Smith takes over after Matt Canada ran the offense for the past three years. That will probably keep the run-pass split close to where it’s been recently.
  • Pittsburgh ranked 25th in neutral-situation pass rate across the past three seasons. That included a No. 32 ranking in 2023.
  • Smith’s 2019-20 Titans ranked 31st in that category.
  • His 2021-23 Falcons ranked 30th.
• There should be enough work to support the fantasy relevance of both Pittsburgh RBs.
  • Bijan Robinson finished last season eighth among RBs in PPR points, with Tyler Allgeier 37th. (They ranked 16th and 45th, respectively, in points per game.)
  • 2022 found Allgeier 30th and Cordarrelle Patterson 32nd in total PPR points
  • 2021: Patterson ninth and Mike Davis 35th.
• Those Falcons collectively ranked 14th, 12th, and then fourth in total RB PPR points over Smith’s three years.
  • It’s fair to say that neither Harris nor Warren is as good as Robinson. Both are probably at least as good as Allgeier and better than Patterson and Davis.
• The big question, of course, will be how Harris and Warren split work. We’ll watch for signals throughout the summer.
  • It’s tough to expect a reversal of the receiving work moving so heavily in Warren’s favor.
  • Harris should keep the lead spot in goal-line situations, given his size.
• There’s no reason to believe this Pittsburgh offense will be exciting. Smith’s Falcons ranked just 26th, 15th, and 26th in scoring; 29th, 24th, and 17th in total yards.
  • Just one of Smith’s five NFL offenses has ranked among the league’s top half in total plays (last year’s Falcons: 13th). Three others have finished 26th or lower.
  • Last year’s Steelers checked in 26th.