Bottom Line

Coming off a stellar 2022 campaign, Chubb should again be a strong producer for fantasy managers in 2023.

The proverbial thorn in his side named Kareem Hunt is no longer on the roster, and despite some minor signs of decline, this All-Pro back should be considered early in drafts this coming year.

What We Learned Last Year

• Chubb posted a career year in 2022, finishing as the RB6 overall in PPR with 16.6 points per game.
• He concluded last year with five top-12 weekly finishes in PPR, and three more within the top-24. The lowest weekly fantasy finish Chubb recorded in 2022 was RB37, meaning he was at least a flex-worthy player in every game he played.
• The four-time Pro Bowler finished the season third in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, rushing yards (1,525), and yards after contact (1,050), in addition to tying for fourth in rushing TDs (12).
• But if you zoom in a bit, Chubb did take a step backward in a few areas:
  • He registered a career-low 3.48 yards after contact per attempt, down from 4.24 and 4.00 the previous two years.
  • 2022 also saw him post a 97.2 PFF Elusive Rating, a mark much lower than his 2021 (107.7) and 2020 (126.6) numbers.
• Regardless, we’re talking about a player with an excellent track record of success in the NFL. Here’s how his career stats measure up against his peers at RB since 2018:
  • 3rd in carries (1,210)
  • 2nd in rushing yards (6,341)
  • 3rd in rushing yards per game (84.5)
  • 2nd in rushing TDs (48)
  • 8th in total PPR points (1154.1)

What to Expect in 2023

• Entering his age-27 season, Chubb has shown a smattering of decline in some areas. But it’s tough for any RB to sustain sheer dominance, and to that end, we’re still optimistic about his 2023 outlook.
• The Browns let RB Kareem Hunt go at the conclusion of 2022, and he’s currently a free agent as of this writing. The only backfield competition worthy of mention behind Chubb at this time is 2021 fifth-round pick Jerome Ford, a player who logged 8 total touches last season.
• Based on the limited competition below him on the depth chart, we feel good about the size of Chubb’s workload in the coming year.
• The Browns’ offensive line ranked 8th in PFF team run-blocking grade and further solidified their corps with 2023 4th-round OT Dawand Jones of Ohio State.
• The only piece of skepticism worthy of noting is that Chubb has never received more than 50 targets as a pass-catcher in a season. This might matter if HC Kevin Stefanski ramps up the passing game now that QB Deshaun Watson has presumably shaken off the rust coming off a near-two-year break from professional football.
• Generally, Chubb’s long-term value might be fading, and dynasty managers should consider getting out from under Chubb sooner rather than later. But he should be a solid low-end RB1/high-endRB2 once again for redraft folks in 2023.