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Nick Chubb - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsNick Chubb's Basic Stats

Nick Chubb
ADP: N/A
Bye: 9
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 27.1
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 227
40 Time: 4.52
SPARQx (Rank): 140.10 (98%)
Burst Score (Rank): 129.50 (92%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.34 (58%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.09

Nick Chubb's Weekly Outlook

This is a regular season feature

We’ll have detailed analysis of this player’s performance added here after each week’s game. Weekly outlooks are posted Tuesday at 1pm EST each week.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Nick Chubb's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Running Back

200.4 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
Not Available 258.7 1223.6 9.6 2.7 1.3 21.5 176.5 0.9

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsNick Chubb's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Chubb ranked just 14th in the league in opportunities per game last season (18.1 carries + targets). He also ranks 14th in that category over the 2 seasons with HC Kevin Stefanski.
  • Chubb also ranked 14th at the position in opportunity share in 2021.
  • He ranked 27th in red-zone snap share despite tying for 15th at the position in total run-play snaps. That was right in line with his 2020 ranking for red-zone work.
  • Chubb’s work shares have been even smaller when he shares the field with Kareem Hunt. He drew 51.0% of Browns carries and 4.4% of targets in 6 healthy games with Hunt last season; 58.8% and 6.6%, respectively, when Hunt was out. (Chubb played no games without Hunt in 2020.)
  • Chubb remains a highly efficient runner. He ranked 2nd in the league in yards after contact per attempt last season, among 61 RBs with 70+ carries. He also ranked 2nd in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating. Chubb led the league in each of those categories in 2020, crushing the field in elusive rating.
  • The Browns have run at the 4th and 7th highest rates in the league in 2 seasons under Stefanski.


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s not much more depth needed to analyzing Chubb. He’s a terrific player. He’s been in a good system for rushing volume. But he cedes a lot of work to Kareem Hunt. There’s a chance this year’s Browns lean further toward the pass after trading for both Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper. There’s also a chance – increasing by the week, it seems – that these Browns watch Watson get suspended for the year and suddenly need to rely on Jacoby Brissett at QB. That would undoubtedly motivate 1 of the league’s highest run rates.

Chubb sports a high weekly ceiling across formats because he’s an efficient runner. But he also falls short on ultimate ceiling and floor by getting light usage in the passing game. Ultimately, he’s just OK at 2nd-round cost in best-ball drafts and a weaker value at market price in lineup-setting formats.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Nick Chubb, RB CLE

5:32pm EST 1/1/23

Chubb turns in class performance vs. Commanders

Browns RB Nick Chubb carried the ball 14 times for a total of 104 yards in Sunday's win vs. the Commanders. He also hauled in 1 catch for 12 yards in the receiving game. Chubb now has 10 games this season with 90+ rushing yards, further solidifying his workhorse status in the Browns' offense. Fantasy managers playing into Week 18 will see Chubb go up against a Steelers defense he shredded for 113 yards and a TD in Week 3. That said, the Steelers' front is much stronger now than it was to begin the season, ranking 2nd in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA since Week 10.

View all Nick Chubb Shark Bites »

Browns RB Nick Chubb gets a tough matchup in Week 17. The Commanders come in 3rd-best in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs, trailing only San Francisco and New England. Washington has allowed just 2 RBs to reach 80 rushing yards all season: Saquon Barkley, who did so in 1 of 2 meetings; and Derrick Henry, who averaged a mere 3.6 yards per rush in their meeting. Washington's run D has softened lately, according to Football Outsiders DVOA, ranking 30th in that area in 2 games since the team's bye. But they also faced Barkley (2nd time) and the 49ers in those contests. Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks just 24th in total offensive DVOA since QB Deshaun Watson stepped in: 27th passing and just 22nd rushing. That struggling offense won't help draw attention away from Chubb, who has also gone from 5.6 yards per carry before the team's Week 9 bye to 3.96 per rush since.

View all Nick Chubb Shark Bites »

Browns RB Nick Chubb rushed 24 times for 92 yards in Saturday's loss to the Saints. He watched QB Deshaun Watson claim the team's only TD, though, on a run from 12 yards out. Chubb averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, just his 3rd game of less than 4 yards per rush all year. All 3 have come since the Week 9 bye, though.

View all Nick Chubb Shark Bites »

The forecast for today's Saints-Browns game calls for temperatures in the single digits with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 40+. The wind chill is well below zero. They're brutal conditions that will significantly limit the passing and kicking games. Check out our projections for all the Saints and Browns players.

View all Deshaun Watson Shark Bites »

Browns RB Nick Chubb (foot) does not carry an injury designation for Week 16. The workhorse back should be fine for Saturday's contest vs. the Saints. In what should be a bad-weather game, the Browns may look to give Chubb a good chunk of carries. Consider Chubb a low-end RB1 option in your lineup.

View all Nick Chubb Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Nick Chubb, RB CLE
Dynasty MVP 154.3
Position Rank #12 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
583
897
897
Dynasty Write-up
Chubb has averaged 85+ rushing yards per game in each of the past 4 seasons. And he's the only player in NFL history with 4 consecutive seasons of 5.0+ yards per carry on 150+ rush attempts. At 27, Chubb should have 1-2 more seasons left of high-end rushing production. Getting Deshaun Watson up to speed should only help sustain Chubb’s value.

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