Nick Chubb - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Chubb ranked just 14th in the league in opportunities per game last season (18.1 carries + targets). He also ranks 14th in that category over the 2 seasons with HC Kevin Stefanski.
• Chubb also ranked 14th at the position in opportunity share in 2021.
• He ranked 27th in red-zone snap share despite tying for 15th at the position in total run-play snaps. That was right in line with his 2020 ranking for red-zone work.
• Chubb’s work shares have been even smaller when he shares the field with Kareem Hunt. He drew 51.0% of Browns carries and 4.4% of targets in 6 healthy games with Hunt last season; 58.8% and 6.6%, respectively, when Hunt was out. (Chubb played no games without Hunt in 2020.)
• Chubb remains a highly efficient runner. He ranked 2nd in the league in yards after contact per attempt last season, among 61 RBs with 70+ carries. He also ranked 2nd in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating. Chubb led the league in each of those categories in 2020, crushing the field in elusive rating.
• The Browns have run at the 4th and 7th highest rates in the league in 2 seasons under Stefanski.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s not much more depth needed to analyzing Chubb. He’s a terrific player. He’s been in a good system for rushing volume. But he cedes a lot of work to Kareem Hunt. There’s a chance this year’s Browns lean further toward the pass after trading for both Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper. There’s also a chance – increasing by the week, it seems – that these Browns watch Watson get suspended for the year and suddenly need to rely on Jacoby Brissett at QB. That would undoubtedly motivate 1 of the league’s highest run rates.

Chubb sports a high weekly ceiling across formats because he’s an efficient runner. But he also falls short on ultimate ceiling and floor by getting light usage in the passing game. Ultimately, he’s just OK at 2nd-round cost in best-ball drafts and a weaker value at market price in lineup-setting formats.