Show Navigation
Show Menu

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 10 Usage

By Jared Smola 12:10pm EST 11/15/23

1. New-Look Lions Backfield

Week 10 Jahmyr Gibbs David Montgomery
Snap Rate 58% 38%
Route Rate 63% 31%
Carries 14 12
Targets50

This was a significant shift coming off the bye week.

Gibbs and Montgomery essentially rotated series, with Gibbs subbing in for most passing downs.

Perhaps most noteworthy: Gibbs tallied five opportunities (carries + targets) inside the Chargers' 10-yard line to Montgomery's two. That work had previously been dominated by Montgomery.

If this deployment continues -- and I think it will -- we can expect Gibbs and Montgomery to split carries down the middle. Gibbs will be the much better target bet.

That'd make the rookie a borderline RB1 in this high-scoring offense.

Montgomery, meanwhile, will be left as a very TD-reliant fantasy play. Lions RBs have combined to average 27 carries per game this season. If Montgomery is getting half of that work, he's looking at 13-14 carries per game. But he's TOTALED only three targets in four games with Gibbs.

That makes Montgomery a potential sell candidate coming off the big Week 10.

It's worth noting, though, that the Lions have seventh-easiest remaining RB schedule. That could help Montgomery out-perform his volume.

  

2. Are Falcons Ready to Feature Bijan Robinson?

Week 10 Bijan Robinson
Snap Rate 75%
Route Rate 78%
Carries 22
Targets2

Robinson racked up a season-high 22 carries in the Week 10 loss to the Cardinals. His 75% snap rate and 54% rush-attempt share were both top-three marks on the year.

So are the Falcons finally ready to unleash their first-round rookie?

Maybe. But maybe not.

We saw Robinson post similar snap and rush-attempt shares back in Weeks 3 and 4:

  • Week 3: 81% snaps, 50% rush attempts
  • Week 4: 76% snaps, 64% rush attempts

But then he went five straight games with a rush-attempt share south of 50%.

We'll see what this backfield looks like coming out of a Week 11 bye.

If his Week 10 usage sticks, Robinson will have top-five fantasy upside the rest of the way.

We just can't be fully confident that it will.

  

3. Buy Jonathan Taylor

Week 10 Jonathan Taylor Zack Moss
Snap Rate 88% 16%
Route Rate 74% 10%
Carries 23 1
Targets10

This will be the last time I write up Taylor in this space. (Probably.)

But I wanted to highlight him again because I think this week presents one more opportunity to acquire him via trade at a relative discount.

Taylor scored a one-yard TD in Germany this past week but was otherwise underwhelming, totaling just 75 yards.

But he set season highs with:

  • 23 carries
  • 88% snap rate
  • 74% route rate

Taylor has steadily pulled away from Moss and now looks to have one of the most valuable roles for a RB in fantasy football.

Take advantage of the recent inefficiency (and the Week 11 bye) to grab a RB with a chance to be a top-5 scorer at the position from Week 12 on.

  

4. Rico Dowdle Threatening Tony Pollard?

First three quarters Tony pollard rico dowdle
Carries 15 6
Targets 0 0
fourth quarter Tony pollard rico dowdle
Carries 0 6
Targets 0 0

The final Week 10 box score makes it look like Dowdle has turned this Dallas backfield into a true committee.

But that was more the result of the lopsided score. Pollard controlled work for the first three quarters, out-carrying Dowdle 15 to six.

Pollard didn't get the rock at all in the fourth quarter of the blowout win, while Dowdle carried six times.

There are still plenty of concerns with Pollard: Inefficiency, an allergy to the end zone, and the fact that he's topped 17 opportunities just once in his last six games.

But Dowdle is not a threat to Pollard's lead role -- at least not yet.

  

5. Jaylen Warren the “Starter”

weeks 1-9 week 10
Snap Rate 45% 52%
Route Rate 39% 50%
Rush-Attempt Share 29% 42%
Targets13%17%

The Steelers announced Warren as their starter prior to Sunday's game vs. the Packers.

Often times, that means little for actual playing time and usage. But, in this case, it meant a noticeable bump for Warren.

His 52% snap rate was a season high by a few percentage points. His 15 carries were also a season high, as was the 42% rush-attempt share. Warren also continued to play more passing-down snaps than RB Najee Harris.

This Steelers backfield has been productive lately, with Warren and Harris combining for seven top-24 PPR finishes over the last four weeks (Harris 4, Warren 3).

There's enough to go around in this run-leaning Steelers offense for both guys to be top-30 backs the rest of the way.

If Warren's Week 10 usage sticks, he could flirt with top-20 production.

  

6. Jerome Ford Back on Top

Week 10 Jerome Ford Kareem huntPierre strong
Snap Rate 64% 36%0%
Route Rate 59% 29%0%
Carries 17 100
Targets100

That ankle injury proved to be just a small bump in the road for Ford.

After being limited in Week 8, he's re-emerged as the clear lead ball-carrier and passing-down back for Cleveland.

Ford has racked up 37 carries and eight targets over the past two weeks to Hunt's 28 carries and one target.

Strong tallied three carries and one target in Week 9 and then didn't hit the field this past week.

QB Deshaun Watson's season-ending shoulder injury hurts Ford's situation.

But he should get enough volume to at least be a weekly RB3 or flex play. And he gets the fifth-easiest remaining RB schedule.

  

7. James Conner Returns to ‘Meh’ Role

Week 10 James Conner
Snap Rate 63%
Route Rate 43%
Carries 16
Targets0

Conner returned from his knee injury as Arizona's clear lead back.

He played 63% of the offensive snaps and handled 16 of 19 RB carries (84%).

Conner wasn't targeted on any of QB Kyler Murray's 32 passes, though. And he registered an underwhelming 43% route rate.

We saw similar usage before the knee injury, with Conner failing to top a 41% route rate or two targets in any of his last three healthy games.

It's a strange decision from the Cardinals considering Conner's strong pass-catching resume. But unless it changes, Conner will be an inconsistent weekly fantasy producer that will need to find the end zone to really pay off.

  

8. Aaron Jones Controls Packers Backfield Again

week 9 week 10
Snap Rate 57% 56%
Route Rate 50% 48%
Carries 20 13
Targets66

Here's why looking at usage is so important.

Jones popped off for 19.9 PPR points in Week 9. He scored just 9.4 in Week 10.

But his playing time and rush-attempt share were nearly identical.

The difference? Green Bay played with the lead in Week 9, resulting in more runs. And Jones found the end zone.

That's the fickle nature of fantasy production. But Jones' usage tells us that he's a rock-solid RB2 going forward, with weekly RB1 upside.

  

9. Noah Brown Ahead of Robert Woods

Week 10 route rates
Tank Dell 98%
Noah Brown 81%
Robert Woods 62%

Brown followed his 6-153-1 Week 9 breakout with a 7-172-0 line in Week 10. Only CeeDee Lamb has more receiving yards over the last two weeks.

But the most important development for Brown's rest-of-season outlook was him running significantly more pass routes than Woods. That signals that Brown will remain a top-three WR even when Nico Collins returns.

And deservedly so. Brown is up to a big 2.87 yards per route this season, while Woods has mustered just 1.14.

Considering how well QB C.J. Stroud is playing, Brown looks like at least a weekly WR4 even when Collins gets back in the mix.

  

10. Might Marvin Mims Actually Happen?

Route rates
Week 1 27%
Week 2 14%
Week 3 28%
Week 439%
Week 529%
Week 624%
Week 745%
Week 841%
Week 1076%

Finally.

After claiming multiple times that Mims would get more playing time, HC Sean Payton finally delivered. Mims easily registered a season-high route rate coming off the bye week.

Now, it didn't matter at all in Week 10. The rookie finished catch-less on one target.

He still faces stout target competition from WRs Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. And the Broncos have gone run-heavy lately, with RB Javonte Williams the centerpiece of the offense.

Mims still feels like a long shot for reliable 2023 fantasy value. But the 76% route rate at least gives him a shot.

He's worth stashing in deeper fantasy leagues.

 

Related Fantasy Football

IDP Hits: Week 14

IDP Hits: Week 14

5 minutes ago

Jahlani Tavai posted a big stat line in Thursday's surprising Patriots win. What do those numbers mean for the LB and your IDP lineup the rest of the way?

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentFantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 14

Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 14

12:30pm EST 12/7/23

A quick look at the most important matchup data to consider when making Week 14 start/sit decisions.

Read More »
Pass Rate Over Expected Data - Week 13

Pass Rate Over Expected Data - Week 13

1:17pm EST 12/6/23

Pass rate over expected for and against data for all 32 teams through Week 13. Useful information when making waiver-wire moves and start/sit decisions.

Read More »
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups Week 14

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups Week 14

3:18pm EST 12/5/23

Is Demario Douglas going to play this week? He might be worth grabbing off your waiver wire either way. But keep the time of year in mind.

Read More »
IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 14

IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 14

9:15pm EST 12/4/23

Shaquille Leonard has a new home with the Eagles. Does that mean he belongs on a roster in your IDP fantasy football league, though?

Read More »
Premium Content Premium ContentFantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 13

Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 13

11:09am EST 12/3/23

A quick look at the most important matchup data to consider when making Week 13 start/sit decisions. Plus sneaky starters at every position!

Read More »
Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 13

Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 13

8:14pm EST 11/29/23

The Jaguars are rolling lately. Does that make Travis Etienne a player to target ahead of the fantasy playoffs ... or is there something holding him back?

Read More »
Other rankings are stale  before the 2nd round.

Draft using the best dynamic tool in the industry. Our fantasy player valuations (DMVP) change during your draft in response to...

  1. Exact league settings - direct sync
  2. Opponent and Team Needs
  3. Positional scarcity & available players
  4. Ceiling, injury risk, ADP, and more!

You need a dynamic cheat sheet that easily live-syncs with your draft board and adapts throughout your draft using 17 crucial indicators.

Get your Draft War Room Today
Winning Your League Starts Here Trophy
Why Wouldn’t You Invest
$36 to Win Your League?

Check out thisleague-winning info

2023 Draft Package Now - Sept 15

$39

Get Instant Access
2023 In-Season Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$39

Get Access Sept. 5
2023 DFS Package Sept 5 - Mar 7

$49

Get Access Sept. 5
Best Value – All Access Pass
DS Insider Membership All 3 Packages

$127 $36

Semi-annual
Get Instant Access
Draft War Room Included Draft War Room Draft War Room Draft War Room Included Draft War Room
Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Unlimited Live-Draft Sync Included Unlimited Live-Draft Sync
Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Award-Winning Player Rankings Included Award-Winning Player Rankings
3D Projections Included 3D Projections 3D Projections 3D Projections Included 3D Projections
In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles In-Depth Player Profiles Included In-Depth Player Profiles
Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Mock Draft Trainer Included Mock Draft Trainer
DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values DMVP Trade Values Included DMVP Trade Values
The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft The Perfect Draft Included The Perfect Draft
Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Breakout & Comeback Player Included Breakout & Comeback Player
Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Average Draft Position by Scoring Included Average Draft Position by Scoring
Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Scientific Injury Predictor Included Scientific Injury Predictor
Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Insider Sleepers & Busts Included Insider Sleepers & Busts
In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings In-Season Weekly Rankings Included In-Season Weekly Rankings
“Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool “Who Should I Start?” Tool Included “Who Should I Start?” Tool
“Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications Included “Team Intel” Tool w/ Analysis & Notifications
Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Live-Sync Free Agent Finder Included Live-Sync Free Agent Finder
Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator Trade Navigator Included Trade Navigator
Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares Player Shares Included Player Shares
In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems In-Depth Free Agent Gems Included In-Depth Free Agent Gems
Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice Included Buy/Sell/Hold Trade Advice
Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data Strength-of-Schedule Data Included Strength-of-Schedule Data
DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder Included DFS Lineup Builder
DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections Included DFS Ownership Projections
Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks Included Weekly Top Stacks
High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews Included High-Stakes DFS Line-up Reviews
DFS Independent DFS Independent DFS Independent Included DFS Independent Included DFS Independent
Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles Included Premium Insider Articles
Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates Included Daily FF Email Updates
Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates Included Breaking News Updates
To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives Included To-the-Minute Game Day Inactives
All-Access Draft Sharks App All–Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App Included All-Access Draft Sharks App
Get Instant Access Get Access Sept 5 Get Access Sept 5 Get Instant Access

Turn your phone into a draft weapon with our FREE APP

Download on the App Store Get It on Google Play