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Quentin Johnston - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsQuentin Johnston's Basic Stats

Quentin Johnston
ADP: 14.1
Bye: 5
Experience: 1
Age: 22.8
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.57

Burst Score (Rank): 135.90 (97%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.59 (15%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.25 (89%)

Quentin Johnston's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.9 36.7 0.22 5
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.6 49.6 0.3 7.3

Quentin Johnston's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#70 Wide Receiver

129.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
14.1 46.4 587.2 3.52 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsQuentin Johnston's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Johnston is coming off an ugly rookie season and should not be considered a strong bet to bounce back this year.

He at least gets a new coaching staff that might deploy him more optimally. And there are tons of targets up for grabs after the departures of WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler.

Johnston is not a priority target, but the 2023 first-round pick might be worth a flier near the end of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Johnston mustered just 38 catches for 431 yards and two TDs as a rookie last year.
  • He finished 74th among WRs in total PPR points; 100th in PPR points per game.
  • He did that despite:
    • Playing all 17 games
    • Playing 65% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps
    • Running a route on 67% of pass plays
  • Johnston was one of the least efficient WRs in the NFL. Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets, he ranked:
    • 64th in catch rate
    • 58th in yards per catch
    • 71st in yards per target
    • 75th in yards per route
    • 74th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
  • The Chargers didn’t make life easy on Johnston, especially as a relatively raw rookie.
    • He lined up out wide for 89% of his snaps.
    • He registered a 13.0-yard average target depth, with 23% of his targets coming 20+ yards downfield.
    • He got just seven screen targets.
  • Johnston deserves plenty of blame, too. His ESPN Open Score of 25 ranked 105th among 109 qualifiers. He simply did not create separation.
  • Johnston was best after the catch.
    • He averaged 4.0 yards after the catch per reception, which ranked 42nd among 80 qualifiers.
    • He ranked 43rd among 86 qualifying WRs in NFL Next Gen Stats’ yards after catch over expected per reception.
    • He ranked 38th out of 109 WRs in ESPN’s YAC Score.
  • Johnston was the 21st overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. The 6’3, 208-pounder broke out with a 60-1,069-6 line as a 2022 junior. He averaged 19.0 yards per catch for his college career, including 8.3 yards after the catch. He struggled in contested situations, though, converting just 41% for his career.

What to Expect in 2024

  • The Chargers have a new coaching staff this year led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, who both have run-leaning backgrounds.
  • Harbaugh and Roman spent four seasons together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in pass attempts and pass rate:
    • 2011 - 31st, 30th
    • 2012 - 31st, 30th
    • 2013 - 32nd, 31st
    • 2014 - 29th, 27th
  • Here’s where the 49ers’ top WR finished in PPR points per game under Harbaugh and Roman:
    • 2011 - 30th (Michael Crabtree)
    • 2012 - 17th (Crabtree)
    • 2013 - 19th (Anquan Boldin)
    • 2014 - 25th (Boldin)
  • We’ll see if the new staff deploys Johnston more optimally than last year.
  • New GM Joe Horitz talked up Johnston in mid-May.
    • "When he was coming out of college, he was an elite size/speed athlete. And you saw some rawness to his game. But as big as he is, 6'3, you watch him drop his weight, getting in and out of breaks, come to balance at the top of the route, get out quickly. He can do some rare things for a player his size. ... He's a great kid, he's a great worker. Everyone here has a high opinion of him. I believe he's really gonna launch. I really do. His skillset is great, we're gonna work with him, make him better and better."
  • The Chargers lost WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler this offseason, leaving a ton of targets up for grabs.
  • Johnston’s primary competition for snaps and targets will come from WRs Ladd McConkey, Josh Palmer, and D.J. Chark.
    • McConkey was the 34th overall pick of this year’s draft. He never led Georgia in catches or receiving yards but fared well in efficiency metrics such as yards per target and yards per route.
    • Palmer has increased his receiving yards per game across each of his first three NFL seasons, topping out at 58.1 last year. But he sports a subpar 1.36 career yards per route and has never ranked better than 62nd among WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
    • Chark signed with the Chargers in early May on a one-year, $3 million deal with a little over $2 million guaranteed. He's missed 39 games over the last four seasons and averaged 48.6 yards per game. His 1.08 yards per route last year ranked 75th among 93 qualifying WRs.
  • History does not bode well for Johnston’s chances to turn his career around. Here are the 12 first-round rookie WRs to average fewer than 7 PPR points per game from 2013 to 2022 (Johnston averaged 5.5 last year):
    • DeVante Parker
    • Breshad Perriman
    • Nelson Agholor
    • Phillip Dorsett
    • Josh Doctson
    • Laquon Treadwell
    • Corey Davis
    • Mike Williams
    • John Ross
    • N’Keal Harry
    • Henry Ruggs
    • Jameson Williams
  • Only four of those 12 WRs have registered a top-36 PPR season (Williams three times, Davis twice, Agholor twice, Parker once).

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Joshua Palmer, WR LAC

10:11pm EDT 7/10/24

Joshua Palmer Set to Lead Chargers Receiving?

Daniel Popper of The Athletic says he's concerned about the Chargers having enough talent at WR. That's not a surprising worry, given that the team shed Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, while adding only second-round pick Ladd McConkey and low-level free-agent D.J. Chark Jr. So who will lead the group? "Joshua Palmer is a complete receiver poised for a career season at the top of the depth chart," Popper wrote this week. That's most noteworthy because Palmer (WR53) sits well behind McConkey (WR42) in best ball ADP.

View Full Story »

Chargers second-round rookie WR Ladd McConkey is reportedly meshing well with QB Justin Herbert in team workouts so far. Daniel Popper of The Athletic says McConkey has played "mostly in the slot." That probably lines up with most fans' expectations but doesn't align with his college usage. McConkey spent just 29.6% of his pass snaps in the slot across three seasons at Georgia, decreasing that rate each year.

View Full Story »

New Chargers GM Joe Hortiz talked up WR Quentin Johnston in a recent interview with Kay Adams. "When he was coming out of college, he was an elite size/speed athlete. And you saw some rawness to his game," Hortiz said. "But as big as he is, 6'3, you watch him drop his weight, getting in and out of breaks, come to balance at the top of the route, get out quickly. He can do some rare things for a player his size. ... He's a great kid, he's a great worker. Everyone here has a high opinion of him. I believe he's really gonna launch. I really do. His skillset is great, we're gonna work with him, make him better and better."

View Full Story »

The Chargers and WR D.J. Chark agreed to a one-year deal worth “up to” $5 million," according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Chark went for 1,008 yards back in 2019 but hasn't really been fantasy relevant since. He's missed 39 games over the last four seasons and averaged 48.6 yards per game. Chark finished a distant second to WR Adam Thielen with 525 receiving yards on a bad Panthers passing game last year. His 1.08 yards per route ranked 75th among 93 qualifying WRs. Chark isn't a guy you should be excited to bet on, although this is a solid landing spot with QB Justin Herbert and a wide-open WR corps. Chark, Ladd McConkey, Josh Palmer, and Quentin Johnston will duke it out for snaps this summer.

View all D.J. Chark Jr. Shark Bites »

The Chargers traded up in Round 2 of the NFL Draft to select Georgia WR Ladd McConkey 34th overall. McConkey’s raw college production doesn’t jump off the page. He never reached 60 catches or 800 yards in a season. But he played in a run-leaning Georgia offense and had to battle TE Brock Bowers (among others) for targets. McConkey was super efficient, leaving school with career 75.3% catch rate and 2.54 yards per route. His career-best 3.26 yards per route last year ranked eighth among 409 WRs with 35+ targets. McConkey is devastatingly quick and a polished route runner, making him one of the best separators in this WR class. And he’s a weapon after the catch, with a career 0.25 missed tackles forced per catch – a better rate than guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze. McConkey boosted his stock at the Combine with a 4.39-second 40 time and 9.34 Relative Athletic Score. The 6’0, 186-pounder can play both outside and in the slot. He might not big a big-play producer or high-TD-rate receiver at the next level, but McConkey has the potential to rack up a bunch of receptions. Going to the Chargers presents immediate opportunity. The WR corps shed Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this offseason, leaving Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston as the top returning players. The landing spot helps McConkey's fantasy outlook. Check out our rookie rankings to see where he lands.

View all Ladd McConkey Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Quentin Johnston, WR LAC
Dynasty MVP 74.5
Position Rank #117 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
225
377
732
Dynasty Write-up
A Round 1 pick, we loved Johnston's landing spot alongside Justin Herbert. (How could you not?!) Year one was a disaster, though, as he tallied a mere .88 yards per route run. Even with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams gone, Johnston isn't a slam-dunk breakout under a new, run-focused staff.
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