Quentin Johnston - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Johnston is coming off an ugly rookie season and should not be considered a strong bet to bounce back this year.

He at least gets a new coaching staff that might deploy him more optimally. And there are tons of targets up for grabs after the departures of WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler.

Johnston is not a priority target, but the 2023 first-round pick might be worth a flier near the end of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Johnston mustered just 38 catches for 431 yards and two TDs as a rookie last year.
• He finished 74th among WRs in total PPR points; 100th in PPR points per game.
• He did that despite:
  • Playing all 17 games
  • Playing 65% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps
  • Running a route on 67% of pass plays
• Johnston was one of the least efficient WRs in the NFL. Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets, he ranked:
  • 64th in catch rate
  • 58th in yards per catch
  • 71st in yards per target
  • 75th in yards per route
  • 74th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• The Chargers didn’t make life easy on Johnston, especially as a relatively raw rookie.
  • He lined up out wide for 89% of his snaps.
  • He registered a 13.0-yard average target depth, with 23% of his targets coming 20+ yards downfield.
  • He got just seven screen targets.
• Johnston deserves plenty of blame, too. His ESPN Open Score of 25 ranked 105th among 109 qualifiers. He simply did not create separation.
• Johnston was best after the catch.
  • He averaged 4.0 yards after the catch per reception, which ranked 42nd among 80 qualifiers.
  • He ranked 43rd among 86 qualifying WRs in NFL Next Gen Stats’ yards after catch over expected per reception.
  • He ranked 38th out of 109 WRs in ESPN’s YAC Score.
• Johnston was the 21st overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. The 6’3, 208-pounder broke out with a 60-1,069-6 line as a 2022 junior. He averaged 19.0 yards per catch for his college career, including 8.3 yards after the catch. He struggled in contested situations, though, converting just 41% for his career.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Chargers have a new coaching staff this year led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, who both have run-leaning backgrounds.
• Harbaugh and Roman spent four seasons together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in pass attempts and pass rate:
  • 2011 - 31st, 30th
  • 2012 - 31st, 30th
  • 2013 - 32nd, 31st
  • 2014 - 29th, 27th
• Here’s where the 49ers’ top WR finished in PPR points per game under Harbaugh and Roman:
  • 2011 - 30th (Michael Crabtree)
  • 2012 - 17th (Crabtree)
  • 2013 - 19th (Anquan Boldin)
  • 2014 - 25th (Boldin)
• We’ll see if the new staff deploys Johnston more optimally than last year.
• New GM Joe Horitz talked up Johnston in mid-May.
  • "When he was coming out of college, he was an elite size/speed athlete. And you saw some rawness to his game. But as big as he is, 6'3, you watch him drop his weight, getting in and out of breaks, come to balance at the top of the route, get out quickly. He can do some rare things for a player his size. ... He's a great kid, he's a great worker. Everyone here has a high opinion of him. I believe he's really gonna launch. I really do. His skillset is great, we're gonna work with him, make him better and better."
• The Chargers lost WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Ekeler this offseason, leaving a ton of targets up for grabs.
• Johnston’s primary competition for snaps and targets will come from WRs Ladd McConkey, Josh Palmer, and D.J. Chark.
  • McConkey was the 34th overall pick of this year’s draft. He never led Georgia in catches or receiving yards but fared well in efficiency metrics such as yards per target and yards per route.
  • Palmer has increased his receiving yards per game across each of his first three NFL seasons, topping out at 58.1 last year. But he sports a subpar 1.36 career yards per route and has never ranked better than 62nd among WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • Chark signed with the Chargers in early May on a one-year, $3 million deal with a little over $2 million guaranteed. He's missed 39 games over the last four seasons and averaged 48.6 yards per game. His 1.08 yards per route last year ranked 75th among 93 qualifying WRs.
• History does not bode well for Johnston’s chances to turn his career around. Here are the 12 first-round rookie WRs to average fewer than 7 PPR points per game from 2013 to 2022 (Johnston averaged 5.5 last year):
  • DeVante Parker
  • Breshad Perriman
  • Nelson Agholor
  • Phillip Dorsett
  • Josh Doctson
  • Laquon Treadwell
  • Corey Davis
  • Mike Williams
  • John Ross
  • N’Keal Harry
  • Henry Ruggs
  • Jameson Williams
• Only four of those 12 WRs have registered a top-36 PPR season (Williams three times, Davis twice, Agholor twice, Parker once).