Bottom Line

The 21st overall pick of this year’s draft, Johnston brings an impressive combination of size, downfield ability, and after-the-catch skills to the Chargers.

He joins a WR corps topped by Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But Johnston has a good shot to claim the #3 WR job right out of the gate.

And, in what should remain a pass-heavy offense under new OC Kellen Moore, that could be enough to make the rookie a 2023 fantasy asset.

Consider him an upside bench stash in redraft leagues and a spike-week WR5 in best ball.

What We Learned Last Year

• Johnston is coming off a 60-1,069-6 line in his junior season at TCU. He accounted for 31% of the Horned Frogs’ receiving yards and 22% of the receiving scores.
• Johnston led his team in receiving yards (487) as a true freshman in 2020 and then led in receiving yards (634) and TDs (6) in 2021, despite missing three of 12 games.
• He left school with a huge 19.0 career yards-per-catch average.
• Johnston is a weapon on deep balls, totaling 23 catches 20+ yards downfield for 959 yards and 11 TDs over the past three seasons. He ranked 37th among 284 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ deep receiving grades last year.
• Johnston is at his best after the catch, with an impressive combination of power, agility and speed. He averaged 8.3 yards after the catch for his college career.
• At 6’3 and 208 pounds, Johnston recorded a 93rd percentile vertical jump (40.5”) and 97th percentile broad jump (134”) at the Combine. He clocked a 40 time in the 4.5 to 4.55-second range at his Pro Day. Johnston registered an 87th percentile Relative Athletic Score.
• The main knock against Johnston is that he plays small at the catch point, converting just 42.7% of his contested opportunities over three college seasons, according to PFF.
• The Chargers selected Johnston with the 21st overall pick of this spring’s draft. He was the second WR off the board – one spot behind Jaxon Smith-Njgba and just ahead of Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison.

What to Expect in 2023

• Johnston faces stiff target competition in Los Angeles. Keenan Allen is coming off his sixth straight season of 6+ catches and 70+ yards per game. Mike Williams has averaged 5.0 catches, 74.9 yards and 0.5 TDs across 27 healthy games over the past two seasons. And Josh Palmer caught 72 balls for 769 yards last year.
• Don’t expect Johnston to out-target Allen or Williams this year. But he’s certainly capable of passing up Palmer, a 2021 third-rounder who ranked just 57th among 80 qualifying WRs in Pro Football Focus’ 2022 receiving grades.
• The Chargers have finished top 6 in pass attempts and yards in all 3 seasons with QB Justin Herbert.
• They made an OC change this offseason, replacing Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore. But this should remain a pass-heavy offense. Three of Moore’s four Cowboys offenses ranked top 10 in both pass attempts and yards.
• Ten WRs were selected between pick 16 and 26 over the previous five drafts. Here’s where they ranked in PPR points per game as rookies:
  • Calvin Ridley: 27th
  • D.J. Moore: 56th
  • Marquise Brown: 55th
  • Justin Jefferson: 10th
  • Brandon Aiyuk: 19th
  • CeeDee Lamb: 35th
  • Jalen Reagor: 100th
  • Kadarius Toney: 65th
  • Jahan Dotson: 44th
  • Treylon Burks: 70th