Targets Up For Grabs
Keenan Allen’s departure opens up 122 targets from last year’s offense. Johnston should absorb at least some of that volume.
The Chargers also return expected No. 1 Ladd McConkey and second-year WR Tre Harris. McConkey’s efficiency and raw production dipped in 2025, but he’s still just 24 (until Nov. 11) with a rookie-season breakout on his resume.
Harris brings the physical profile to push Johnston, but the early production doesn’t help his case. He managed just 30 catches for 324 yards and 1 TD as a rookie.
Round 4 deep threat Brenen Thompson doesn’t profile as a big contributor either. He brings deep speed but appears suited for a niche role at 164 pounds.
The TE room has depth, but it shouldn’t seriously threaten Johnston’s role. Oronde Gadsden II had a flashy but inconsistent rookie campaign. David Njoku arrives after an injury-plagued season that saw Harold Fannin Jr. pass him in Cleveland. Free-agent addition Charlie Kolar is more blocker than proven receiver.
Overall, it’s an improved situation for Johnston’s target-earning potential.
Supporting Cast Looks Excellent
Johnston enters Year 4 with Justin Herbert. Despite facing heavy pressure last season, Herbert still finished ninth in pass attempts and ninth in yards. He remains an asset for Johnston.
The O-line will bear watching after both OTs underwent offseason surgeries. LT Rashawn Slater and RT Joe Alt are at least on track to participate in training camp.
Johnston Will Learn a New Offensive Scheme
Mike McDaniel enters Year 1 as the Chargers’ play-caller. His Miami units ranked 10th, seventh, ninth, and 21st in neutral pass rate. That’s comparable to the Chargers’ finishes at 14th in two seasons under OC Greg Roman.
McDaniel’s scheme cuts both ways for Johnston. Miami’s offense averaged a 33.25% fullback snap rate over four seasons, so heavier personnel could help his target efficiency. But that’s only if he becomes a staple in 1 and 2-WR sets ahead of McConkey and/or Harris.
McDaniel’s Dolphins used 3- and 4-WR sets far less often than last year’s Chargers, 53% to 81%. That creates some route-rate risk for Johnston, particularly if Harris earns a larger role.
Paths to Ceiling
Johnston has overproduced on TDs in two straight seasons, scoring 16 times vs. 11.7 expected. He’ll likely need that to continue for a true ceiling outcome.
The other path is development and a usage spike under Mike McDaniel, who praised Johnston’s early OTA work and compared some of his traits to Julio Jones and Andre Johnson.
Johnston doesn’t present that kind of WR1 ceiling, but McDaniel leaning into his size and explosiveness could help lift last year’s low targets-per-route mark.
Risk Factors
Johnston still faces a tough path out of secondary-target status. McConkey returns, Harris brings Year 2 growth potential, and the Chargers now feature Gadsden and Njoku at TE.