Adam Thielen - Fantasy Points Outlook

The Panthers are making a surprise choice in hiring former Buccaneers OC Dave Canales as HC, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Canales arrives after spending just one year with the Bucs. But that season seems to have revived QB Baker Mayfield's career. Overall, the Bucs ranked just 20th in points, 23rd in total yards, tied for 19th in yards per play, and 20th in offensive DVOA. Before that, Canales spent 13 years coaching offense in Seattle, including three years as WRs coach, five as QBs coach, and two as passing-game coordinator. Canales drew praise for his role in QB Geno Smith's 2022 breakout. His work with Smith and Mayfield almost certainly excited the Panthers, who likely envision Canales as the guy to help QB Bryce Young rebound from a troubling rookie season. Of course, Canales goes from QBs coach for Smith and OC for Mayfield to HC in Carolina. So be careful about assuming too much from his influence. We'll see who Canales brings in to fill out his coaching staff and what the Panthers can add to an offense that sported unimpressive talent in 2023 (and doesn't have a 2024 first-round pick). This seems like a positive move for Young's dynasty outlook, but temper your excitement.

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The Panthers fired HC Frank Reich. He didn't even make it a full season in Carolina, going 1-10 in his 11 games. An offensive-minded coach, Reich's Panthers offense sits 30th in yards per game, 29th in points per game, and 31st in offensive DVOA. A poor group of skill-position players didn't help the cause, but Reich did very little to elevate the offense or rookie QB Bryce Young. Special teams coordinator Chris Tabor will finish out the season as interim HC, while OC Thomas Brown takes back over as play-caller. We'll see if the moves lead to any changes in player usage, but don't expect the offense to be noticeably better.

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Panthers WR Adam Thielen caught only 1 of 3 targets for 2 yards in Sunday's loss to the Titans. Tennessee refused to let Thielen beat them, which easily resulted in his worst game as a Panther. Bryce Young fired off 31 passes, so Thielen's target share of 9.6% fell well shy of his average (27.9%). Week 13 turns up a bounce-back spot at Tampa Bay. But that’s the last favorable spot on his schedule until Week 17 at Jacksonville.

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Panthers WR Adam Thielen hauled in 8 of 11 targets for 87 receiving yards in Week 11’s loss vs. the Cowboys. The veteran embodied one of the few aspects of Carolina’s offense that worked in the 33-10 blowout and accounted for 33.1% of the Panthers’ total offensive yards in the contest. This performance just goes to show fantasy managers that Thielen should remain in lineups even though his real-life team is struggling. With his pair of “dud” games in Week 9-10 behind him, it’s important to remember that Thielen has recorded at least 7 catches and 50 receiving yards in seven of 10 games played in 2023. Don’t be afraid to fire him up again in Week 12 vs. the Titans.

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