Saints WR Chris Olave (hamstring) has been ruled out for Week 16 vs. the Browns. With Olave inactive and WR Jarvis Landry landing on IR due to an ankle injury, not many Saints players warrant fantasy consideration in Saturday's game. TE Juwan Johnson could theoretically see a boost in opportunity. However, the weather in Cleveland is expected to be nasty. RB Alvin Kamara is about the only Saints player fantasy managers can count on in any meaningful way in this contest.
WR Chris Olave led the Saints in targets (10), receptions (8), and yards (112) in Sunday's narrow victory over the Titans. He drew 30.3% of QB Derek Carr's pass attempts for the game. WR Michael Thomas checked in next, catching 5 of 8 targets for 61 yards. WR Rashid Shaheed delivered a 5-89-1 receiving line on 6 targets. TE Juwan Johnson (3-36 on 5 targets) was the only other Saint to garner more than 2 looks. It was a strong start for the New Orleans passing game overall, but also quite possibly the best matchup they'll face in that area all season. Tennessee was the second-best scoring matchup for WRs last season, according to our strength of schedule formula; sixth-best for QBs. The only matchup more favorable for WRs in 2022 was Carolina, which New Orleans faces in Week 2.
WR Chris Olave led the Saints in targets (10), receptions (8), and yards (112) in Sunday's narrow victory over the Titans. He drew 30.3% of QB Derek Carr's pass attempts for the game. WR Michael Thomas checked in next, catching 5 of 8 targets for 61 yards. WR Rashid Shaheed delivered a 5-89-1 receiving line on 6 targets. TE Juwan Johnson (3-36 on 5 targets) was the only other Saint to garner more than 2 looks. It was a strong start for the New Orleans passing game overall, but also quite possibly the best matchup they'll face in that area all season. Tennessee was the second-best scoring matchup for WRs last season, according to our strength of schedule formula; sixth-best for QBs. The only matchup more favorable for WRs in 2022 was Carolina, which New Orleans faces in Week 2.
Saints sideline reporter Jeff Nowak says "the Derek Carr-Chris Olave connection has been one of the highlights of camp." He adds that the QB has credited Olave with performing in ways you wouldn't normally see from a second-year wideout. Olave looks like the Saints' lead wideout after an impressive rookie season. The biggest question might be whether he can get enough target volume to support an ADP that has hovered around the Round 2-3 turn. Olave's downfield ability does give him upside beyond where he sits in our WR rankings.
Saints WR Chris Olave is a tough nut to crack regarding his 2023 outlook. Olave finished as the WR27 in PPR points per game and ranked 21st among all WRs in target share as a rookie last season, garnering 25.6% of Saints targets over his 15 games. His 2.42 yards per route also ranked seventh among 80 WRs with 50+ targets in 2022. It’s clear that Olave made the best of his team situation and can produce at a high level. The issue is, how much better can he be? New QB Derek Carr is a likely upgrade, but he isn’t a strong deep-ball passer. According to PFF, Carr’s 39.4% adjusted completion rate ranked just 24th among 36 QBs with 20+ deep attempts (20+ yards downfield) last year. Dalton ranked 34th by contrast. This is an important factor considering 23.7% of Olave’s targets last year were 20+ yard deep shots. A healthy WR Michael Thomas could also be an issue in 2023, though Olave’s target share was slightly higher over the first three weeks of last season when Thomas was healthy than it was from Week 4 on without him. We expect Olave to have a strong sophomore season, though we’re cautious. See where he stands in our current WR rankings.
Saints WR Chris Olave missed practice on Thursday. “He wasn’t feeling good today," HC Dennis Allen said of the rising star. "He’s dealing with an inflamed Achilles (tendon). Nothing that we’re worried about.” For now, we’re not lowering his spot in the WR rankings.
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