Don’t Trust The Box Score: I Like Bucky Irving ... Just Not Like That
The Box Score Lies. The Film Doesn't.
Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use advanced analytics and film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Every week, I’ll bring my 22 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than their stats indicate.
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving finished as a top-three PPR RB in two of the last three weeks, once with Jalon Daniels at QB and last week with Baker Mayfield back.
Those fantasy finishes indicate a young RB who could ascend into the top tier of fantasy (and NFL) RBs. I’m not quite there after reviewing the film, but Irving looks much improved vs. last year.
That gives me hope for his future consistency.
A pulling guard leads the way here to seal the edge on the right side of the line. Irving eyes an inside lane that closes, so he shifts into the spot created by the guard.
Irving accelerates to the open field, stiff-arming CB Will Lee. Lee does hang on and bring him down, but the explosiveness and vision allow for a 15-yard gain.
Irving’s best runs have come via the outside zone. The Buccaneers O-line seems to thrive at opening spaces and sealing the edge. That’s a dangerous combination with Irving’s cutting ability.
This play shows how Irving consistently uses his eyes to manipulate defenders.
The O-line pulls left but allows LB Devin Lloyd to come through the middle with little resistance. Irving adjusts with a cutback to the right side.
He takes the perfect angle tight to the O-line to keep CB Akayleb Evans as far away as possible. Evans makes contact right at the goal line but too late to stop Irving from scoring.
This run likely would have been stopped for a loss in Irving’s first two seasons. He was typically a step late in hitting his cutback lanes. Sometimes that didn’t affect the outcome, but it did lead to some stops when the O-line didn’t hold up.
Irving’s vision and decision-making appear much sharper this year, leading to immediate recognition of what lanes are filled and how to adjust.
Once again, Irving turns average blocking into a positive gain. The defense crashes the interior so Irving transitions smoothly into an outside run. He breaks through an arm tackle while cutting upfield to evade Evans.
The corner wraps up Irving but not until after the first down.
Overall, Irving has improved his body control, vision, and instincts. He reads the defense effortlessly and makes smart decisions nearly every play.
Despite the positives, I don’t think we’ll see Irving become a consistent top-10 RB.
I’m concerned about Irving’s lack of tackle-breaking ability. In the first clip, for example, his stiff arm ends up being used against him to bring him down. He also gets wrapped up by a CB in the third clip despite being a step in front.
Irving’s choices made those runs successful, but top 10 RBs like James Cook or Kyren Williams tend to break those tackles.
I think Irving remains a solid RB2 the rest of the season (and potentially over the next few seasons) who can certainly provide spike weeks. But his lack of size and tackle-breaking ability will be limiters.
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Wilson’s fantasy season has been volatile so far. He finished as WR31 and WR81 in the first two weeks before things took off. He combined for 30 targets in Week 3 and 4, finishing as WR4 and WR16.
Then the Cardinals traded away Marvin Harrison Jr.
That hasn’t helped Wilson’s fantasy numbers. He finished as WR50, WR49, and WR22 over the last three weeks.
I noticed a consistent problem across multiple Wilson games this season. He really struggled with physical contact early in his route, leading him to slow down and sometimes even trip and stumble.
That often affects the timing on passes, and it showed up again this past week. That may help explain his lack of production.
Wilson runs a deep comeback route just shy of the end zone on this play. He makes contact with the CB on the cut and falls to the ground.
Jacoby Brissett fires the pass that way as he gets hit, but it’s overthrown while Wilson tries to get up off the ground.
This stumbling issue emerged multiple times in Week 7. Later in the game, Wilson even falls while anticipating contact that hasn’t happened yet.
Wilson comes in motion and explodes off the snap, expecting contact from the CB a few yards down the field. That anticipation causes another stumble into contact.
Wilson does regain his balance and positioning, allowing him to make the catch before getting hit by the safety.
But it shows an odd trend: Wilson loses his footing when getting physical or even just anticipating that contact.
If Wilson continues to struggle staying on his feet, defenses may adjust and try to knock him off his route timing.
Wilson stays on his feet through contact on this play, though he is still forced to make a contested catch with little separation.
The Cardinals use motion again, moving Wilson into the slot. He takes off and gets jammed a few yards after the line of scrimmage. Wilson struggles to get off of CB Ja’Quan McMillan to gain separation.
The pass from Jacoby Brissett was poor as well, failing to lead Wilson. McMillan has strong positioning, but Wilson leaps and makes an excellent contested grab over the corner’s shoulder.
Wilson showcases strong contested catch ability, a positive trait that the Cardinals continue to utilize.
The stumbling and balance problems concern me if he doesn’t correct them. I’ll be watching for any such improvement.
Outside of the stumbling, Wilson looks like a solid NFL contributor with good hands and contested-catch ability. He doesn’t create a ton of separation and isn’t a dynamic route runner, however, which may limit his career ceiling.
Wilson should be a solid No. 2 WR instead of the de facto No. 1 for the Cardinals. I would be surprised if the team doesn’t try to upgrade in the next year or two to find the true star they hoped Harrison would be.
That would put Wilson in a better position to perform, though it would also likely cut into his targets. His 9.4 per game this season rank ninth in the league.
Caleb Douglas, WR, Miami Dolphins
Douglas returned from a right ankle injury to start against the Jets. He caught 2 of 3 targets for 70 yards and 2 TDs.
It was an exciting box score if you have Douglas on your fantasy team, but I don’t expect this production to stick.
Douglas showcased some positives on film but produced a mediocre game overall that got propped up by a long TD.
Douglas gets wide open on this out route due to a CB blitz. Malik Willis identifies the blitz immediately and slings the ball over to Douglas.
The rookie shows savvy after the catch, staying balanced (and in bounds) along the sideline before zooming down the field for a TD.
It was a nice play for the Dolphins offense, and Douglas does well after the catch to stay upright and turn it into a truly big play. But this long TD doesn’t showcase outstanding route running or advanced WR skills.
Douglas struggled to gain separation throughout the game. Press coverage often kept him engaged too long to be a viable target. This play is a prime example.
Douglas tries to shake the CB, but the physical engagement immediately wipes out his burst and agility.
That leaves Douglas without separation when he does complete his route, and he doesn’t get the target despite being the first read.
Douglas’ best play came on his other TD.
It’s no surprise that this TD came against off coverage. Douglas gets off the line cleanly and then shakes the defender with a stutter step.
That allows Douglas to get inside without contact, winning leverage against the CB. That creates an easy opening for a Willis TD pass.
The results certainly were positive for a rookie WR coming off an ankle injury. It’s possible the injury still hindered, but I still have concerns about Douglas replicating this output.
His struggles with press and contact are pretty clear, and other teams will likely use that against him. Douglas will need to learn how to extend his arms and keep DBs away from him to get open and gain separation.
I believe he can grow in that area, but it’ll probably take some time. Keep in mind this is a third-round rookie in a limited pass offense. And consider Douglas a risk-reward option rather than a weekly starter.
