James Cook - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Cook made a sizable jump from year one to year two. His rushing yards increased by 615; his catches rose by 23.

The lead back role remains his for 2024. But a lack of TD upside leaves him best viewed as a fantasy RB2.

What We Learned Last Year

• After a quiet rookie year, Cook morphed into a fantasy asset in 2023.
• His 1,567 total yards ranked third among RBs. His 44 catches ranked just outside the top 15.
• Cook never appeared on the final injury report en route to playing all 17 games.
• Cook ranked as the PPR RB11; RB19 in points per game.
  • He finished RB12 or better six times. He recorded two games between RB13 and RB24.
• He ranked fifth among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 55.7%.
• Cook sat tied for eighth in rush yards over expected per attempt.
• He largely ran into favorable fronts, with only 10.1% of his carries coming against 8+ man boxes.
  • That ranked fourth-lowest among 49 qualifiers.
• Buffalo cut ties with OC Ken Dorsey ahead of Week 11. Here are Cook’s splits with Dorsey and fill-in OC Joe Brady:
  • From Week 1 to Week 10 with Dorsey, Cook averaged 12 carries and 2.8 targets per game. His opportunity share: 14.8%
  • From Week 11 on with Brady, Cook averaged 7 carries and 3.9 targets per game. His opportunity share: 20.4%
• Cook’s main issue was a lack of goal line touches.
  • Josh Allen handled 14 carries inside the five-yard line, limiting Cook to 4.
  • Allen also topped his teammate in carries inside the ten (21 to 18).
• The Florida State product has now totaled only four rushing scores on 326 career carries.

What to Expect in 2024

• Expect Cook to remain the clear lead back in 2024.
• Buffalo moved on from ‘23 backups Latavius Murray, Leonard Fournette, and Damien Harris.
• Offseason additions include rookies Ray Davis and Frank Gore Jr.
  • Ray Davis arrived in late Round 4. He brings a needed power element to the backfield.
  • Gore signed as a UDFA. Despite a productive college career, he’s an unlikely fantasy factor.
• Buffalo’s O-line lost only C Mitch Morse. We might see competition in camp, but no significant offseason additions were made.
• Josh Allen returns for year seven. His red zone rushing will likely remain a roadblock to Cook approaching double-digit TDs.
• Only 25 (in September), Cook is squarely in his prime.
  • He enters year three with only 326 career carries.