Mike Evans' Departure Changes Everything In Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• RB Kenneth Gainwell
• WR Ted Hurst

Key Departures

• RB Rachaad White
• WR Mike Evans

Notable Coaching Changes

• OC Zac Robinson replaces OC Josh Grizzard

Baker Mayfield

2025 Role & Results

A Hot Start Fades Into A QB19 Finish

Mayfield threw for 3,693 yards with 26 TDs and 11 INTs across 17 games last year. He finished 10th in passing yards and tied for seventh in TDs.

Baker added another 382 yards and a score on 55 carries. Only eight QBs ran for more yards.

Mayfield finished 19th among QBs in fantasy points per game. He scored as a top-12 QB in seven of 17 outings.

Mayfield was much more productive before injuries to him and his pass catchers, ranking QB8 in fantasy points per game through Week 6 but just QB20 from Week 7 on.

The Efficiency Tailed Off

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Mayfield ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 26th in completion rate over expected
• 25th in yards per pass attempt
• 33rd in Pro Football Focus pass grade

He proved more efficient early in the season, too:

WR Injuries Were A Big Story

The 2025 Buccaneers finished:

• 13th in plays
• 21st in total yards
• 25th in yards per play
• 18th in points

It was a balanced offense in terms of play calling, ranking 17th in pass rate and 18th in pass rate over expected.

WR injuries were a major factor, with Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, and Chris Godwin sharing the field for only the final four games.

• Evans missed Weeks 4, 5, and 6 with a hamstring injury and Weeks 8-14 with a concussion and broken collarbone.
• Godwin missed the first three games while recovering from his 2024 ankle injury and then missed Weeks 6-11 with a fibula injury.
• Egbuka played all 17 games but was limited in the middle of the season by a hamstring injury.

Was 2024 The Peak?

Mayfield has sandwiched a big 2024 season between two mediocre campaigns as Tampa Bay’s starter.

He was QB21 in fantasy points per game in 2023 before jumping to QB3 in 2024, when he set career highs in completion rate (71.4%), yards per attempt (7.9), and, most importantly, TD rate (7.2%).

That 7.2% TD rate was the 18th-highest mark among 812 QB seasons of 250+ pass attempts since 2000. Mayfield has thrown a TD on 4.6% of his passes across his other seven NFL seasons.

Injuries Have Been A Factor

Mayfield played all 17 games last year but appeared on the injury report early in the season with right biceps and knee issues. He suffered an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder near halftime of Week 12, missing the second half.

Mayfield also played all 17 games in both 2023 and 2024. He missed two games with a torn labrum in his left shoulder in 2021 and two games with a high-ankle sprain in 2022.

Mayfield also notably sustained two concussions in college.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Back For Year 4 In Tampa Bay

Mayfield is back on the final season of the three-year, $100 million contract he signed in March 2024. He and the team have discussed a new deal this offseason but haven’t come to an agreement.

Can The Passing Game Survive Without Evans?

For the first time since 2013, WR Mike Evans won’t be a Buccaneer after departing for San Francisco in free agency.

Injuries limited Evans to a 30-368-3 receiving line across eight games last year. But over the previous two seasons, he accounted for:

• 19.8% of Tampa’s receptions
• 28.0% of the receiving yards
• 34.8% of the receiving TDs

It’s a significant loss for Mayfield, particularly in the red zone.

The Buccaneers are hoping that Emeka Egbuka is ready for the lead role after an up-then-down rookie season. He averaged 89.0 yards and 1.0 TDs over his first five games but just 41.1 yards and 0.1 TDs over his final 12. A Week 6 hamstring injury was at least partly to blame. The 19th overall pick of the 2025 draft is certainly capable of a Year 2 breakout.

Tampa Bay also returns WR Chris Godwin another season removed from that nasty 2024 ankle injury and WR Jalen McMillan, who has flashed across his first two NFL seasons. WR Ted Hurst arrived in the third round of the draft after two huge seasons at Georgia State.

This still has the potential to be an above-average WR corps. TE Cade Otton is a steady if unexciting pass catcher. And the Bucs have two plus pass-catching RBs in Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell.

Mayfield will also be playing behind a sturdy offensive line that returns all five starters. OTs Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke are particularly strong.

New OC Will Bring A Balanced Offense

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson. Mayfield worked with Robinson during his six-week stint with the Rams in 2022 and reportedly played a part in the hire.

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in a Kirk Cousins-led offense in Robinson's debut. The Falcons fell to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year, with worse QB play from Michael Penix Jr. and then Cousins.

Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

There’s no Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay, though, so we expect Zac Robinson to shift at least a bit toward the pass. We project this to be a fairly balanced offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Mayfield finished QB3 in fantasy points per game back in 2024 thanks mostly to a historically high TD rate. That’ll be tough to match, especially without Evans. But Mayfield could pair strong passing efficiency with above-average rushing production to score as a top-10 QB this season.

Risk Factors

Mayfield has finished QB21 and QB19 on more normal TD rates in his other two seasons as Buccaneers starter. He lost his top TD scorer in Evans and will be working in a new offense under OC Zac Robinson.

Without strong efficiency, Mayfield could again score as a mid-range to low-end QB2.

Bucky Irving

2025 Role & Results

Shoulder Injury Nuked The Production

Irving ran for 588 yards and 1 TD across 10 games last year. He added 30 catches for 277 yards and 3 scores.

He finished 18th among RBs in both PPR and half-PPR points per game.

Irving was much more productive before the Week 4 shoulder injury that cost him seven games, ranking RB8 through Week 4 with 18.5 PPR points per game but sinking to RB29 on 11.1 points per game from Week 13 on.

Where's The Goal-Line Work?

Irving led the Bucs with 17.3 carries per game on a 59.2% share across his 10 games. That carry share ranked 10th among RBs on the season.

Irving ceded some passing-game work to Rachaad White but still averaged 3.5 targets on a 10.8% share across his 10 games. That target share ranked 13th among RBs.

The biggest issue for Irving last year was a lack of work near the goal line. He carried just six times inside the 10-yard line and didn’t get a single carry inside the 5.

That dropped Irving to RB17 in expected PPR points per game.

It’s worth noting that Irving’s usage took a hit post-injury, particularly in the passing game. Here are the splits:

Near The Bottom In Most Efficiency Metrics

Irving was one of the least effective runners in the league last year. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• 51st in yards
• 50th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 51st in yards after contact per attempt
• 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 46th in Pro Football Focus rush grade

Irving was slightly better before that shoulder injury. His 0.211 missed tackles forced per attempt over his first four games would have ranked 12th among those 51 RBs, but his 2.39 yards after contact would have ranked 49th. 

Irving was significantly better in the passing game. He ranked eighth in yards per route and 14th in PFF receiving grade among 40 RBs with 30+ targets.

The Offensive Line Didn't Help

The 2025 Buccaneers finished:

• 13th in plays
• 21st in total yards
• 25th in yards per play
• 18th in points

It was a balanced offense in terms of play calling, ranking 17th in pass rate and 18th in pass rate over expected.

Irving ran behind an offensive line that struggled in run blocking. Tampa Bay ranked:

• 25th in PFF run-blocking grade
• 27th in ESPN run-block win rate
• 22nd in adjusted line yards

Where'd The Old Bucky Go?

Irving turned in an awesome rookie season, running for 1,122 yards and 8 TDs and tacking on another 392 yards on 47 catches. He finished RB20 in PPR points per game.

Irving was much more efficient on the ground in 2024. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry, led all 47 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, and ranked sixth in rush yards over expected per attempt.

He was also good as a receiver, ranking sixth in yards per route and second in PFF receiving grade among 37 RBs with 30+ targets. Irving’s 7.7 career yards per target ranks third among 43 RBs with 50+ targets over the last two seasons.

That all followed a productive college career. Irving finished second in rushing yards as a true freshman at Minnesota, then transferred to Oregon and racked up 2,283 rushing yards on 6.5 yards per carry over the next two years. He also caught 87 balls across those two seasons.

Irving dropped to the fourth round of the 2024 draft because of shaky measurables. He checked into the Combine at 192 pounds and registered a 4.55-second 40 time with a 25th-percentile broad jump and fourth-percentile vertical.

He Was Healthy Until Last Year

Irving suffered a partially dislocated shoulder and sprained foot in Week 4 last year. He missed the next seven games before returning for the final six.

But Irving needed offseason surgery on the shoulder and was sidelined until June minicamp. His status bears monitoring throughout the summer.

Irving played all 17 games as a rookie, although he missed the second half of Week 14 with a back injury.

He had no significant injuries in college.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Irving Could Lose Money Touches

The Buccaneers swapped out Rachaad White for Kenneth Gainwell this offseason. White averaged just 5.1 carries and 1.9 targets across Irving’s 10 games last year.

Tampa Bay let White walk in free agency and gave Gainwell a two-year, $14 million deal, so the Bucs clearly view him as an upgrade. That makes Gainwell a good bet for more work than White got last year. Gainwell particularly looks like a threat on passing downs coming off a 73-catch season for the Steelers.

HC Todd Bowles called Irving the 1A and Gainwell the 1B in March.

Bowles on Gainwell in mid-June:

“He brings a 1-2 punch with Bucky Irving, obviously. He played very well last year, he’s played very well his whole career. He can catch the ball, he can block, he can run. He brings a speed element and an attitude element.”

The Bucs also return RB Sean Tucker on a restricted free-agent tender. He carried just 24 times in Irving’s 10 games last year, but seven of those came inside the 5-yard line. Tucker is a threat to steal goal-line carries from Irving again this year.

Will The O-Line Be Better?

The Buccaneers return QB Baker Mayfield and WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin to lead the passing game. They lost WR Mike Evans, who averaged 9.0 TDs over his 12 seasons in Tampa Bay. That could turn some red-zone plays from passes into runs this year, although that’s unlikely to help Irving if he continues to lose those goal-line carries.

The Bucs return all five starters from last year’s offensive line. Although the group wasn’t great in run blocking last year, the personnel and continuity give it a chance to take a step forward in 2026.

New Run Scheme Could Be A Poor Fit

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson. 

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

Robinson is expected to bring more zone rushing concepts to Tampa Bay, based on both his time under McVay and scheme in Atlanta.

That might not be good news for Irving. He was slightly more efficient on zone runs than man/gap runs last year but much better on man/gap runs as a rookie. Through two NFL seasons, he’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry on man/gap runs vs. just 3.7 on zone runs.

Paths To Ceiling

If Irving can rediscover his rookie-year rushing efficiency, he shouldn’t have a problem holding off Gainwell for lead ball-carrying duties. And he’s been an efficient pass catcher in both of his NFL seasons.

The key to hitting a ceiling will be winning back a goal-line role. If he can do that, Irving could flirt with RB1 production.

Risk Factors

Irving is coming off a woefully inefficient rushing season, had offseason shoulder surgery, and faces increased competition from Gainwell.

He could find himself in a full-on committee, losing passing-down work to Gainwell and goal-line carries to Tucker. That’d leave Irving as no better than a RB3 or flex play.

Kenneth Gainwell

2025 Role & Results

Receiving Work Fuels Fantasy Production

Gainwell ranked fourth among RBs with 73 catches and fifth with 486 receiving yards last year. He added another 537 yards on the ground and scored 8 total TDs.

Gainwell was more valuable in PPR leagues, finishing RB20 in points per game vs. 25th in half-PPR and 31st in non-PPR.

Gainwell’s biggest game of the year came with Jaylen Warren out in Week 4: 99 yards and 2 TDs rushing, plus 6 catches for 35 yards.

Remove that game, and Gainwell drops to:

• 24th in PPR points per game
• 30th in half-PPR
• 36th in non-PPR

He Split Work With Warren

Gainwell worked in a near-even timeshare with Warren in their 16 games together. Warren led in carries; Gainwell in targets.

Gainwell ranked 24th among RBs in expected PPR points per game and 30th in half-PPR in those 16 games with Warren.

Strong Efficiency As Runner And Receiver

Gainwell was efficient as both a runner and receiver last year.

Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, Gainwell ranked:

• 14th in yards per carry
• 21st in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 15th in yards after contact per attempt
• 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 30th in Pro Football Focus rush grade

And among 40 RBs with 30+ targets, he finished:

• ninth in yards per route
• 12th in PFF receiving grade

Was Last Year's Breakout Real?

Gainwell’s carries, rushing yards, targets, catches, receiving yards, and total TDs last year were all career highs.

He was lightly used across his first four NFL seasons with the Eagles, averaging just 4.2 carries, 2.1 targets, and 1.5 catches per game. 

He also wasn't particularly efficient, averaging a mediocre 4.2 yards per carry, catching 73.9% of his targets, and posting 7.1 yards per catch.

Here’s where he ranked in yards per route among RBs with 20+ targets in each of those four seasons:

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Gainwell To Form "1-2 Punch" With Irving

Gainwell hit free agency this offseason and landed a two-year, $14 million deal. That $7 million average annual salary ranks 22nd among RBs, just behind Tony Pollard and right ahead of fellow 2026 free agents Rico Dowdle and Tyler Allgeier.

Gainwell joins a Tampa Bay backfield that returns Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker but lost Rachaad White. White averaged 7.8 carries and 2.6 targets per game last year, although that dropped to 5.1 carries and 1.9 targets in 10 outings with Irving.

Buccaneers HC Todd Bowles has described his backfield as a “1-2 punch” with Irving and Gainwell.

“He played very well last year, he’s played very well his whole career,” Bowles said of Gainwell in June. “He can catch the ball, he can block, he can run. He brings a speed element and an attitude element. He’s one of the unsung leaders of the offseason that has given us a little bit more toughness on offense, from a mental standpoint.”

Irving is coming off a tough 2025 season, missing seven games with shoulder and foot injuries and posting ugly rushing efficiency in the other 10. That followed an excellent rookie season in terms of both raw production and efficiency.

Which version of Irving we get in 2026 will likely impact how big a role Gainwell plays. It’s worth noting that Irving missed much of the offseason after undergoing shoulder surgery. He returned to the field for June minicamp.

Tucker returns on a restricted free-agent tender. He carried just 24 times in Irving’s 10 games last year, but seven of those came inside the 5-yard line. Tucker is a threat to take goal-line carries again this year.

Can The Offensive Line Improve?

The Buccaneers return QB Baker Mayfield and WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin to lead the passing game. They lost WR Mike Evans, who averaged 9.0 TDs over his 12 seasons in Tampa Bay. That could turn some red-zone plays from passes into runs this year, although it’s unclear if Gainwell will get those chances near the goal line.

The Bucs return all five O-line starters. The group wasn’t great last year, ranking 22nd or worse in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade, ESPN run-block win rate, and adjusted line yards. But the personnel and continuity give this O-line a chance to improve in 2026.

New OC Bringing Balanced Offense

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson. 

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

There isn’t a Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay’s backfield, but we’re still expecting this to be a balanced offense in terms of run-pass split.

Paths To Ceiling

Gainwell will at least share work with Bucky Irving this season. But if he can claim something close to 50% of the carries, including some goal-line work, and dominate pass-catching work, Gainwell could score as a lower-end RB2 in PPR leagues.

Risk Factors

If rookie-year Irving is back, Gainwell could be the clear No. 2 in both carries and targets. And Tucker could turn this into a three-man committee, hogging goal-line work.

That scenario would leave Gainwell as an unreliable fantasy play.

Emeka Egbuka

2025 Role & Results

A Hot Start Fades Fast

Over his first five games, Egbuka averaged 5.0 catches, 89.0 yards, and 1.0 TDs per game. Only two WRs averaged more PPR points per game during that stretch.

But over his final 12 games, Egbuka sank to 3.2 catches, 41.1 yards, and 0.1 TDs per game, ranking 57th among WRs.

It got even worse for him over the final five games: 2.2 catches, 29.4 yards, and no scores. Egbuka finished outside the top 60 WRs in PPR points in four of those five weeks.

He Got WR2-Level Usage

Egbuka drew 127 targets on a 22.8% share across his 17 games. Those marks ranked ninth and 18th, respectively, among WRs.

Unlike his fantasy scoring, his volume stayed relatively flat from those first five games to the final 12:

Egbuka ranked 15th at the position in expected PPR points per game.

Deep Targets Led To Poor Efficiency

Egbuka was the fourth biggest underachiever at his position, scoring 11.4 PPR points per game on 14.0 expected points per game. His 49.6% catch rate ranked 72nd among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

Egbuka wasn’t solely to blame. His 13.2 average target depth ranked 18th-highest among those 76 WRs, and deeper targets naturally come with lower catch rates. His 63.8% catchable-target rate ranked third-lowest among that group.

That poor catchable-target rate was a major driver of his production drop over the final two-thirds of the season. A whopping 86.8% of Egbuka’s targets were deemed catchable over his first five games, compared with just 53.9% over the final 12.

Egbuka’s 1.75 yards per route on the season ranked 29th among 76 qualifying WRs. He was worse in film-based metrics:

• 46th in Fantasy Points’ separation score
• 48th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• 74th in ESPN receiver score

WR Injuries Defined The Bucs' Season

The 2025 Buccaneers finished:

• 13th in plays
• 21st in total yards
• 25th in yards per play
• 18th in points

It was a balanced offense in terms of play calling, ranking 17th in pass rate and 18th in pass rate over expected.

WR injuries were a major factor. Egbuka played all 17 games, but:

• Mike Evans missed Weeks 4, 5, and 6 with a hamstring injury and weeks 8-14 with a concussion and broken collarbone.
• Godwin missed the first three games recovering from his 2024 ankle injury and then missed weeks 6-11 with a fibula injury.

The trio only played together for the final four games. Over that span, Egbuka averaged just:

• 4.3 targets
• 2.3 catches
• 14.7 yards
• 0 TDs

Don't Forget The Strong Prospect Profile

Egbuka was the 19th overall pick of the 2024 draft after setting an Ohio State record with 205 career catches. He broke out with a 74-1,151-10 line as a sophomore, finishing just behind fellow sophomore Marvin Harrison Jr. in all three categories.

An October high-ankle sprain led to a down 2023. But Egbuka bounced back for an 81-1,011-10 line in 2024. He led the Buckeyes in receptions and finished second to super freshman Jeremiah Smith in yards and TDs.

The Hamstring Was A Factor Last Year

Egbuka played all 17 games last year but suffered a hamstring injury in Week 6. That, probably not coincidentally, was when his production went south.

Egbuka suffered that aforementioned high-ankle sprain in October 2023. He had tightrope surgery and returned about a month later.

Egbuka was otherwise healthy at Ohio State.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Targets Should Climb, Will The Usage Change?

Evans’ departure to San Francisco leaves behind a big opportunity.

Injuries limited him to a 30-368-3 receiving line across eight games last year. But Evans averaged 76.0 catches, 1,153 yards, and 9.5 TDs across his first 11 seasons in Tampa Bay. 

The Bucs return Godwin, who struggled off 2024’s dislocated ankle, mustering just 33 catches across nine games. But he averaged 82.3 yards per game in 2024 and topped 1,000 yards in three straight seasons before that. The 30-year-old is capable of bouncing back this year.

Tampa Bay also returns WR Jalen McMillan, who’s flashed across two NFL seasons, and added WR Ted Hurst in Round 3 of this spring’s draft.

There’s depth here but also an opportunity for Egbuka to emerge as the Bucs’ clear No. 1 WR.

He’d also benefit from more short and intermediate routes. Egbuka was his most productive and efficient in those ranges in college. Here’s how his yardage and Pro Football Focus receiving grades broke down from 2022-2024:

Compare that to last year, when 40.7% of his yardage came on deep targets (vs. 26.7% on short and 32.6% on intermediate).

Baker Needs To Bounce Back

QB Baker Mayfield returns for his fourth season as Bucs starter. He has sandwiched a huge 4,500-yard, 41-TD 2024 season between two mediocre seasons.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Mayfield ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 26th in completion rate over expected
• 25th in yards per pass attempt
• 33rd in Pro Football Focus pass grade

He was notably more efficient over the first six weeks, when Egbuka was also most productive:

A bounce back from Mayfield this year would help Egbuka.

New OC Brings Balanced Offense

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson. 

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in a Kirk Cousins-led offense in Robinson's debut. The Falcons fell to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year, with worse QB play from Michael Penix and then Cousins.

Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

There’s no Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay, though, so we expect Robinson to shift at least a bit toward the pass. We project this as a balanced offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Evans’ departure gives Egbuka a path to emerge as Tampa Bay’s No. 1 WR. If he can rediscover the efficiency he flashed early last season, he could flirt with WR1 production.

Risk Factors

We saw Egbuka’s floor over the final two-thirds of last year, when he and Mayfield struggled to connect. If that continues, and the Bucs get more than they did last year from Godwin and McMillan, Egbuka could be just a volatile WR3 for fantasy squads.

Chris Godwin

2025 Role & Results

Only One Top-24 Finish

Godwin caught just 33 balls for 360 yards and 2 TDs across nine games last year. He finished 52nd among WRs in PPR points per game; 53rd in half-PPR.

Godwin’s only top-24 fantasy finish came in Week 17, when he posted a 7-108-1 line to finish WR4. He topped 55 yards just one other time and finished WR50 or lower in five of his nine outings.

Low aDOT Capped The Ceiling

Godwin averaged 5.7 targets across his nine games. His 16.5% target share ranked 50th among 109 WRs with 200+ routes.

Godwin split his time fairly evenly between the slot (55.6% of his routes) and outside (44.4%). But he worked almost exclusively near the line of scrimmage, registering a 7.6-yard average target depth that ranked 97th among those 109 qualifying WRs. He saw just three targets 20+ yards downfield all season.

He finished 52nd among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency And Film Were Bad

Godwin caught 64.7% of his targets but averaged just 10.9 yards per catch. Among 109 WRs with 200+ routes last year, he ranked:

• 69th in yards per target
• 59th in yards per route

He didn’t fare much better in film-based metrics, finishing:

• 56th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• 52nd in Fantasy Points separation score
• 29th in ESPN receiver score

Slumping Baker Mayfield Didn't Help

The 2025 Buccaneers finished:

• 13th in plays
• 21st in total yards
• 25th in yards per play
• 18th in points

It was a balanced offense in terms of play calling, ranking 17th in pass rate and 18th in pass rate over expected. Tampa Bay ranked:

• 15th in pass attempts
• 20th in passing yards
• 11th in passing TDs

QB Baker Mayfield took a step back after a big 2024 season, ranking 27th in completion rate and 25th in yards per pass attempt among 42 qualifying QBs.

Rough 2025 Followed Huge 2024

2025 was one of the worst seasons of Godwin’s career. His 3.7 catches and 40.0 yards per game were his lowest marks since his 2017 rookie campaign. And he posted career lows in:

• Yards per target
• Yards per route
• PFF receiving grade

That all followed an injury-shortened but highly productive 2024. Godwin tallied a 50-576-5 line across seven games, finishing WR2 in PPR points per game. His 2.36 yards per route was a career high and ranked 10th among 84 WRs with 50+ targets.

Godwin topped 80 catches and 1,000 yards in four of five seasons before 2024. His finishes among WRs in PPR points per game in those five seasons:

• 2019: second
• 2020: 15th
• 2021: seventh
• 2022: 19th
• 2023: 38th

(Godwin ranked 15th among WRs in catches and 23rd in yards in 2023 but scored just 2 TDs.)

Two Major Injuries Have Taken A Toll

Injuries likely played a big part in Godwin’s disappointing 2025.

His 2024 season ended on Oct. 21 with a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula. He spent all of last offseason rehabbing and wasn’t cleared to play until Week 4.

Godwin played two games last season before suffering a fibula injury and missing the next five. The Buccaneers never confirmed that the issue was related to the 2024 injury, but it very likely was.

Godwin also tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee in December 2021 and has missed time with three separate hamstring injuries.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Godwin Should Control Slot Snaps

WR Mike Evans’ departure leaves behind a big opportunity.

Injuries limited him to a 30-368-3 receiving line across eight games last year. But Evans averaged 76.0 catches, 1,153 yards, and 9.5 TDs across his first 11 seasons in Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers return WRs Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan and added Ted Hurst in Round 3 of the draft. Egbuka is a lock for a starting job, while McMillan and Hurst figure to battle for the other outside spot.

Godwin is a strong bet to handle slot duties after spending most of his time there in spring practices. He’s been slightly more efficient in the slot vs. outside for his career.

A Mayfield Rebound Would Help

QB Baker Mayfield returns for his fourth season as Bucs starter. He has sandwiched a huge 4,500-yard, 41-TD 2024 season between two mediocre seasons.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Mayfield ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 26th in completion rate over expected
• 25th in yards per pass attempt
• 33rd in Pro Football Focus pass grade

A rebound from Mayfield would certainly help Godwin’s bounce-back chances.

New OC Brings Balanced Offense

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson. 

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in a Kirk Cousins-led offense in Robinson's debut. The Falcons fell to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year, with worse QB play from Michael Penix Jr. and then Cousins.

Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

There’s no Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay, though, so we expect Robinson to shift at least a bit toward the pass. We project this as a balanced offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Evans’ departure leaves behind a big opportunity in Tampa Bay. If Godwin can rediscover his pre-injury form, he could contend for the Bucs’ target lead and return to WR2 territory in fantasy scoring.

Risk Factors

Godwin is 30, has suffered two serious lower-body injuries, and is coming off a career-worst season. It’s possible that he’s simply out of gas and finishes third among Buccaneers WRs in targets this season.

Jalen McMillan

An Abbreviated 2025

An August neck injury cost McMillan the first 13 games of last season. He caught 12 balls for 178 yards over the final four. That included a 7-114-0 line in a Week 17 loss to the Dolphins.

McMillan Flashed As A Rookie

McMillan won Tampa Bay’s No. 3 WR job behind stalwarts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as a rookie in 2024 

He caught 37 balls for 461 yards and 8 TDs that year, finishing 49th among WRs in PPR points per game. McMillan ranked just sixth on that Bucs team in catches and fourth in receiving yards, but only Evans caught more TDs.

McMillan’s seven end-zone targets also ranked second on the Bucs and tied for 42nd among all WRs. He converted four of those into scores.

He Was Especially Good Late

McMillan closed his rookie year strong, taking on an increased role with Godwin out. Over his final six games, McMillan totaled:

• 35 targets (19.3% share)
• 26 catches
• 357 receiving yards
• 7 TDs

He ranked 18th among WRs in PPR points per game over that stretch. That was largely fueled by the big TD total, but he also ranked inside the top 31 WRs in catches and yards during that span.

McMillan ranked 26th among 104 qualifying WRs in yards per route (1.90) over those final six games.

McMillan Was A Promising Prospect

McMillan entered the NFL with a nice resume.

The Buccaneers selected him in the third round in 2024 after a productive career at Washington.

An MCL sprain hampered his senior season. But McMillan had already broken out as a junior, racking up 79 catches for 1,098 yards and 9 TDs.

That production came on a Washington team that also featured Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. McMillan actually led that trio in receptions and TDs in 2022.

The 6’1, 197-pounder tested as a high-level athlete at the Combine. His 4.47-second 40-yard dash and 37-inch vertical helped him earn an 86th-percentile Relative Athletic Score.

Can He Stay Healthy?

Injuries have been an issue for McMillan throughout his career. He missed three games at the end of his 2020 freshman season with an ankle injury and one game in 2021 with a hand injury. Then came the 2023 MCL sprain that cost McMillan four games and limited him in a few more.

Hamstring trouble cost McMillan four games of his rookie season. He originally went down in practice in September and missed two games. He aggravated the issue in November and missed two more contests. 

And McMillan’s most serious injury came last August when he fractured three vertebrae in his neck in a preseason game. He was sidelined until December.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

An Evans-Sized Hole To Fill

WR Mike Evans’ departure leaves behind a big opportunity.

Injuries limited him to a 30-368-3 receiving line across eight games last year, but Evans averaged 76.0 catches, 1,153 yards, and 9.5 TDs across his first 11 seasons in Tampa Bay. Evans’ role near the end zone is particularly interesting considering the TD upside McMillan flashed as a rookie.

He’ll be competing for snaps and targets with WRs Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Ted Hurst.

Egbuka is coming off an up-then-down rookie season. He averaged 89.0 yards and 1.0 TDs over his first five games but just 41.1 yards and 0.1 TDs over his final 12. A Week 6 hamstring injury was at least partly to blame. The 19th overall pick of 2024 is the favorite to lead Tampa Bay in targets this season.

Godwin struggled returning from 2024’s dislocated ankle last year, mustering just 33 catches across nine games. But he averaged 82.3 yards per game in 2024 and topped 1,000 yards in the three seasons before that. The 30-year-old is capable of bouncing back this year. He’s expected to be Tampa’s primary slot receiver.

That likely leaves third-round rookie Hurst as McMillan’s main competition for outside snaps. Hurst is an intriguing prospect, a 6'4, 206-pounder with 99th-percentile athleticism and strong production over the last two seasons. But he's making an even bigger jump in competition than your average rookie after playing at Valdosta State and Georgia State.

We’re expecting McMillan to fend off Hurst this summer, but it’ll be a situation to watch in training camp and preseason.

A Mayfield Rebound Would Help

QB Baker Mayfield returns for his fourth season as Bucs starter. He has sandwiched a huge 4,500-yard, 41-TD 2024 season between two mediocre seasons.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Mayfield ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 26th in completion rate over expected
• 25th in yards per pass attempt
• 33rd in Pro Football Focus pass grade

A bounce-back season from Mayfield would certainly help McMillan’s breakout chances.

New OC Brings Balanced Offense

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson. 

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in a Kirk Cousins-led offense in Robinson's debut. The Falcons fell to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year, with worse QB play from Michael Penix and then Cousins.

Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

There’s no Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay, though, so we expect Robinson to shift at least a bit toward the pass. We project this as a balanced offense in 2026.

Paths To Ceiling

Evans is gone, Egbuka struggled over the final two-thirds of his rookie season, and Godwin is 30 and coming off an ugly 2025.

If even one of Egbuka or Godwin falters this year, McMillan could find himself playing a big role in a capable offense. That’d give him WR3 upside.

Risk Factors

McMillan remains largely unproven, with just 17 games on his NFL resume. Egbuka and Godwin are capable of controlling Bucs targets this season. And McMillan isn’t even a lock to beat out rookie WR Ted Hurst.

It’s possible that he ends up as an afterthought for the Bucs and fantasy teams.

Cade Otton

2025 Role & Results

Just Three Top-12 Finishes

Otton tallied 59 catches for 572 yards and 1 TD in 16 games last year. He ranked 12th among TEs in catches and 15th in yards, but his one score tied for 50th.

That left Otton TE26 in PPR points per game and TE27 in half-PPR. He cracked the top-12 at the position in just three of his 16 outings.

Low-Upside Usage

Otton was a full-time player last year, running a route on 75.0% of pass plays across his 16 games. That ranked seventh among TEs.

He drew a target on just 18% of his routes, though, 30th among 40 TEs with 200+ routes. Otton’s 15.3% target share ranked 18th. His 5.0 targets per game ranked 14th.

Otton was rarely used downfield or near the end zone. His 5.1-yard average target depth ranked 32nd among those 40 qualifying TEs. And he ranked:

• 38th in red-zone targets (6)
• 45th in targets inside the 10-yard line (2)
• 48th in end-zone targets (1)

Otton finished TE27 in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency And Film Say Mediocre

Otton caught 72.8% of his targets but averaged just 9.7 yards per catch. Among 40 TEs with 200+ routes last year, he ranked:

• 25th in yards per target
• 30th in yards per route

He was similarly mediocre in film-based metrics:

• 37th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• 32nd in Fantasy Points separation score
• 16th in ESPN receiver score

Otton Benefited From WR Injuries

The 2025 Buccaneers finished:

• 13th in plays
• 21st in total yards
• 25th in yards per play
• 18th in points

It was a balanced offense in terms of play calling, ranking 17th in pass rate and 18th in pass rate over expected.

Otton benefited from injuries to WRs Mike Evans (nine games missed) and Chris Godwin (eight games missed). Those guys, along with WR Emeka Egbuka, were only on the field together for the final four games of last season. Otton missed one of those. His receiving lines in the other three:

• 2-15-0
• 4-33-0
• 7-94-1

A Career TE2

Otton has been a low-ceiling player throughout his four NFL seasons. He sports a career 9.7 yards per catch and 5.3% TD rate, both well below league-wide averages for TEs.

Otton’s best season came in 2024, when he posted a 59-600-4 line across 14 games and finished TE11 in PPR points per game. Even that production came with a major boost from three games without both Evans and Godwin. Otton averaged 19.8 PPR points per game in those contests vs. 7.6 in his other 11. That latter mark would have ranked 24th among TEs on the season.

Otton’s finishes among TEs in PPR points per game in his other three seasons:

• 29th
• 27th
• 26th

He's Missed Time In Three Of Four Seasons

Otton has missed five games through four NFL seasons:

• One with a hamstring injury in 2022
• Three with a knee injury in 2024
• One last year with a knee injury

Otton also suffered a serious right ankle injury in his final college season that required surgery and cost him the final four games.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

He'll Play Plenty Again

Otton briefly hit the free-agent market in March before re-signing with the Buccaneers on a three-year, $30 million deal with $20 million guaranteed. That $10 million average annual salary lands Otton 15th among TEs.

It also makes him a safe bet to remain a full-time player for Tampa Bay. That was confirmed by the team only adding sixth-round rookie Bauer Sharp to the TE room.

The biggest change in the Bucs’ pass-catching corps is the departure of Evans. Injuries limited him to a 30-368-3 receiving line across eight games last year. But he averaged 76.0 catches, 1,153 yards, and 9.5 TDs across his first 11 seasons in Tampa Bay. 

It’s a big hole, but we expect it to primarily be filled by returning Egbuka, Godwin, and Jalen McMillan.

Tampa Bay also added RB Kenneth Gainwell in free agency. He’s coming off a 73-catch season for the Steelers and could steal some short-range targets from Otton.

Baker Needs A Bounce Back

QB Baker Mayfield returns for his fourth season as Bucs starter. He has sandwiched a huge 4,500-yard, 41-TD 2024 season between two mediocre seasons.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ pass attempts last year, Mayfield ranked:

• 27th in completion rate
• 32nd in adjusted completion rate
• 26th in completion rate over expected
• 25th in yards per pass attempt
• 33rd in Pro Football Focus pass grade

A bounce-back season from Mayfield would certainly help Otton’s 2026 production.

New OC Brings Balanced Offense

The Buccaneers canned OC Josh Grizzard after the season, replacing him with Zac Robinson. 

Robinson spent five seasons working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles before serving as Falcons OC for the last two. Atlanta ranked sixth in yards and 13th in points in a Kirk Cousins-led offense in Robinson's debut. The Falcons fell to 14th in yards and 24th in points this past year, with worse QB play from Michael Penix Jr. and then Cousins.

Both of Robinson’s Atlanta offenses leaned run:

There’s no Bijan Robinson in Tampa Bay, though, so we expect Robinson to shift at least a bit toward the pass. We project this as a balanced offense in 2026.

Robinson helped Kyle Pitts to a bounce-back season and a TE5 finish last year, but Pitts and Otton are very different players. And Pitts ranked just 22nd in PPR points per game in Robinson’s first season in Atlanta, so the scheme alone doesn't make Otton especially appealing.

Paths To Ceiling

Otton will be on the field plenty this season, and Evans’ departure leaves behind opportunity. That at least gives Otton a chance to earn decent volume. 

If he finds the end zone a few times as he did in 2023 and 2024 (4 TDs in each season), he could at least emerge as a spot-start option, especially in full-PPR leagues.

Risk Factors

A healthy season from the Buccaneers’ WR corps could leave Otton fourth or even fifth on the team in targets. And he needs volume as a low yards-per-catch and TD-rate player.