Week 2 Matchups That Matter: Bounce-Back Spot For The Commanders

Welcome to Week 2’s Matchups That Matter.

This article gives you a peek at the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

An important note: The data below is based on either Week 1 results or 2025 data. You should still be leaning much harder on projected volume than matchups when making Week 2 lineup decisions.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 2 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 2!

Jump to:

• One Matchup to Know
• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

One Matchup to Know

Here’s a key schematic edge from each of this week's 16 games that could impact fantasy production.

Lions at Bills: Detroit Struggles Defending Deep

The Lions rank 31st in EPA per play allowed on deep passes over their last 10 games. D.J. Moore had 3 deep targets in the opener, registering a 21.3-yard average target depth and 149 air yards.

Upgrade: D.J. Moore

Panthers at Falcons: Blowup Spot For Bijan

The Panthers got gashed for 224 yards and 4 TDs on 8.0 yards per carry by Bears RBs in the opener, finishing dead last in our Run Defense Power Rankings. (Carolina also finished 26th in EPA allowed per rush last year.)

Upgrade: Bijan Robinson

Bengals at Texans: Bengals Can Win Deep

The Texans rank top 10 in EPA per play allowed on short and intermediate passes over their last 10 games but 28th against deep passes. They gave up 4 completions of 20+ yards to Josh Allen in this year's opener. WRs Tee Higgins (1.3) and Ja'Marr Chase (1.2) have seen similar deep targets per game dating back to the start of 2024.

Upgrade: Bengals deep passing game

Browns at Buccaneers: Cleveland's Zone-Heavy Coverage Boosts Egbuka

The Browns played zone coverage on 87.5% of their snaps in the opener, the fifth-highest rate in the league. WR Emeka Egbuka has averaged 2.38 yards and 0.48 fantasy points per route vs. zone for his career compared to 1.00 yards and 0.23 fantasy points per route vs. man.

Upgrade: Emeka Egbuka

Packers at Jets: Love Should Smoke Jets' Man Coverage

The Jets have man played coverage at the fifth-highest rate (32.9%) dating back to the start of last season under HC Aaron Glenn. QB Jordan Love has averaged 0.65 fantasy points per dropback against man coverage vs. just 0.36 against zone since taking over as starter in 2023. WR Christian Watson and TE Tucker Kraft have averaged more fantasy points per route vs. man than zone.

Upgrade: Jordan Love, Christian Watson, and Tucker Kraft

Vikings at Bears: Two-High Trouble For Bears Pass Catchers

The Vikings lead the league in rate of two-high coverage (62.2%) under DC Brian Flores since 2023. They went two-high on 67.4% of their snaps in this year's opener. WRs Luther Burden and Rome Odunze and TE Colston Loveland all average fewer yards per route vs. two-high than one-high for their careers.

Downgrade: Bears pass catchers

Saints at Ravens: Lamar Torches Single High

The Saints ranked 3rd league-wide in single-high coverage rate (59.7%) under DC Brandon Staley since the start of 2025. QB Lamar Jackson averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt against single-high since 2021, way up from his 7.2 yards per attempt against two-high. WR Zay Flowers and TE Mark Andrews have also been better vs. single-high.

Upgrade: Ravens passing game

Eagles at Titans: Pressure Wrecks Ward

The Eagles rank fourth in pressure rate since the start of 2025. Among 31 QBs with 300+ dropbacks over that same timeframe, Cam Ward ranks 29th in completion rate, 29th in yards per attempt, 30th in EPA per dropback, and 31st in fantasy points per dropback when pressured.

Downgrade: Titans passing game
Upgrade: Eagles defense

Steelers at Patriots: Tough Matchup For Patriots Run Game

New England ranks fourth in gap-run rate (57.7%) under OC Josh McDaniels since the start of 2025. Pittsburgh ranked 10th in EPA per play allowed on gap runs last year and seventh in this year's opener.

Downgrade: Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson

Jaguars at Broncos: Tuten Could Win On The Edge

The Broncos ranked last in EPA per play allowed on rushes to the outside in Week 1. RB Bhayshul Tuten had 11 carries to the outside in the opener, averaging 5.0 yards on those runs.

Upgrade: Bhayshul Tuten

Raiders at Chargers: Johnston Is A Cover-3 Beater

The Raiders led the league in rate of Cover 3 last year (43.7%) and ranked fifth in Week 1 (51.4%). WR Quentin Johnston averaged 2.12 yards per route vs. Cover 3 last season, his highest mark across coverage shells.

Upgrade: Quentin Johnston

Seahawks at Cardinals: Seattle's Coverage Favors McBride

The Seahawks ranked fifth in rate of zone coverage last season (77.1%) and fourth in this year's opener (88.1%). Since 2024, TE Trey McBride averages 2.29 yards per route against zone vs. 1.48 against man. WRs Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson both average more yards per route against man coverage.

Upgrade: Trey McBride
Downgrade: Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson

Dolphins at 49ers: Miami's Base Defense Boosts Purdy

The Dolphins were in Base defense (4 DBs) on a league-high 65.7% of their snaps last week. Among 34 QBs with 100+ dropbacks against Base defense since 2023, Brock Purdy ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and second in fantasy points per dropback.

Upgrade: Brock Purdy

Commanders at Cowboys: Washington Dominates Zone Coverage

Dallas deployed zone coverage on 75.8% of their snaps in DC Christian Parker's debut. Since 2024, Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs rank ninth and 14th, respectively, in yards per route against zone among 101 qualifying WRs. QB Jayden Daniels has completed 72.5% of his passes at 7.6 yards per attempt against zone vs. 54.6% and 6.7 yards per attempt against man.

Upgrade: Commanders passing game

Colts at Chiefs: Another Man-Heavy Matchup For Rice

Rice struggled against the man-heavy Broncos in Week 1 and gets another man-heavy defense on Sunday night. The Colts ranked ninth in man-coverage rate in 2025 and first in this year's opener. For his career, Rice has averaged 1.66 yards per route against man coverage compared to 3.09 against zone.

Downgrade: Rashee Rice

Giants at Rams: Adams Should Thrive Vs. Two-High Heavy Giants

The Giants ranked sixth in rate of two-high coverage in their first game under DC Dennard Wilson last year. Wilson's Titans ranked ninth in two-high usage across his two seasons as Titans DC. With the Rams since the start of 2025, WR Davante Adams averaged 2.22 yards per route and 0.75 fantasy points per route against two-high, up from 1.88 yards per route and 0.41 fantasy points per route against single-high.

Upgrade: Davante Adams

Highest Game Totals

1. Lions at Bills (54.5)
2. Commanders at Cowboys (50.5)
3. Vikings at Bears (48.5)
4. Giants at Rams (48.0)
t-5. Saints at Ravens (46.5)
t-5. Colts at Chiefs (46.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-13. Browns at Buccaneers (41.5)
t-13. Steelers at Patriots (41.5)
15. Seahawks at Cardinals (40.5)
16. Eagles at Titans (39.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week (called "implied points").

Here's how each team stacks up this week:

Highest Projected Points

1. Bills (29.75)
2. 49ers (29.0)
3. Rams (27.75)
4. Ravens (27.5)
5. Cowboys (27.25)
6. Chiefs (26.5)
7. Bears (26.25)

Lowest Projected Points

27. Raiders (18.5)
t-28. Cardinals (18.25)
t-28. Steelers (18.25)
30. Browns (16.5)
31. Titans (16.25)
32. Dolphins (15.5)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Bears (64.3)
2. Cowboys (63.8)
3. Chiefs (63.5)
4. 49ers (63.2)
t-5. Lions (63.0)
t-5. Bills (63.0)

Fewest Projected Plays

27. Colts (60.5)
28. Falcons (60.4)
29. Raiders (60.3)
30. Browns (59.3)
31. Titans (59.2)
32. Dolphins (59.0)

Weather Concerns

Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterback

Week 1 Pass Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass in Week 1. Teams are ranked by "Pass Defense Power," which averages those 4 metrics.

Note that this is just a one-game sample, and that these metrics are at least partly opponent-driven.

Adjusted-Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jayden Daniels at Cowboys (+46.0%)
2. Deshaun Watson at Buccaneers (+22.7%)
3. Jordan Love at Jets (+21.1%)
4. Drake Maye vs. Steelers (+20.1%)
5. Dak Prescott vs. Commanders (+19.1%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Cam Ward vs. Eagles (-18.0%)
29. Cooper Rush vs. Panthers (-18.4%)
30. Kirk Cousins at Chargers (-22.0%)
31. Joe Burrow at Texans (-25.8%)
32. Caleb Williams vs. Vikings (-36.2%)

Running Back

Week 1 Run Defenses

Here's a look at how each team fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush in Week 1. Teams are ranked by "Run Defense Power," which averages those 3 metrics.

Note that this is just a one-game sample, and that these metrics are at least partly opponent-driven.

Adjusted-Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Commanders at Cowboys (+26.7%)
2. Rams vs. Giants (+24.6%)
3. Texans vs. Bengals (+23.4%)
4. Seahawks at Cardinals (+21.5%)
5. Packers at Jets (+19.2%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Jaguars at Broncos (-13.6%)
29. Cardinals vs. Seahawks (-16.6%)
30. Steelers at Patriots (-16.9%)
31. Bears vs. Vikings (-17.7%)
32. Patriots vs. Steelers (-17.9%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Commanders at Cowboys (+33.4%)
2. Vikings at Bears (+21.9%)
3. Saints at Ravens (+19.9%)
4. Chiefs vs. Colts (+19.3%)
5. Patriots vs. Steelers (+17.9%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Falcons vs. Panthers (-15.4%)
29. Jaguars at Broncos (-15.5%)
30. Bengals at Texans (-18.8%)
31. Titans vs. Eagles (-20.9%)
32. Baers vs. Vikings (-27.8%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Bills CB Dee Alford

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Ryan Flournoy vs. Commanders CBs Rasul Douglas, Amik Robertson, and Mike Sainristil.

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Bears CBs Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Malik Muhammad

Ravens WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker

Jets WRs Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon and Brandon Cisse

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice vs. Colts CB Justin Walley

Packers WRs Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, and Jayden Reed vs. Jets CBs Brandon Stephens, Azareye'h Thomas, and Jarvis Brownlee

49ers WRs Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, and Demarcus Robinson vs. Dolphins CBs Jason Marshall, Chris Johnson, and Julius Brents

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland, Cobie Durant, and Caleb Downs

Panthers WR Jalen Coker vs. Falcons CBs Avieon Terrell and Mike Hughes

Browns WRs Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion vs. Buccaneers CBs Benjamin Morrison, Zyon McCollum, and Keionte Scott

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Bengals WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Rams CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson

Jaguars WRs Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and Brian Thomas vs. Broncos CBs Pat Surtain, Riley Moss, and Ja'Quan McMillian

Steelers WRs D.K. Metcalf and Michael Pittman vs. Patriots CBs Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis

Titans WRs Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell, Riq Woolen, and Cooper DeJean

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Texans vs. Bengals (+54.2%)
2. Cowboys vs. Commanders (+31.4%)
3. 49ers vs. Dolphins (+30.1%)
4. Patriots vs. Steelers (+29.8%)
5. Seahawks at Cardinals (+28.0%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Saints at Ravens (-20.5%)
29. Chargers vs. Raiders (-21.3%)
30. Panthers at Falcons (-23.4%)
31. Titans vs. Eagles (-35.4%)
32. Lions at Bills (-42.5%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Buccaneers vs. Browns (+90.1%)
2. Chargers vs. Raiders (+82.3%)
3. Bears vs. Vikings (+75.3%)
4. Ravens at Saints (+47.0%)
5. Texans vs. Bengals (+42.8%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Commanders at Cowboys (-38.5%)
29. Lions at Bills (-39.5%)
30. Bills vs. Lions (-40.3%)
31. Vikings at Bears (-46.1%)
32. Giants at Rams (-56.2%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Trey Smack at Jets (+37.8%)
2. Drew Stevens at Cowboys (+32.7%)
3. Tyler Loop vs. Saints (+24.6%)
4. Jason Myers at Cardinals (+24.5%)
5. Ryan Fitzgerald at Falcons (+15.3%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Chris Boswell at Patriots (-17.4%)
29. Chad Ryland vs. Seahawks (-26.2%)
30. Riley Patterson at 49ers (-27.9%)
31. Wil Lutz vs. Jaguars (-34.2%)
32. Evan McPherson at Texans (-40.3%)