Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 1 Usage

 

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Playing time and touches are the backbone of fantasy scoring. 

Chasing one-week box scores can be dangerous. Investing in players who are on the field and getting the football is more reliable.

That’s why we study playing time and usage every week during the season. It can give us a tangible edge in start/sit decisions, waiver moves, and trades.

Here are the top 10 takeaways from Week 1 usage:

 

1. Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson Battling to be THE RB1?

* The Hall numbers include all snaps before QB Aaron Rodgers was pulled for the final drive of the game.

RB Christian McCaffrey has already missed a game -- and might miss more. But even if he was healthy, Hall and Robinson would be threats to take the RB1 crown.

Both guys got absurd usage in the opener.

For comparison, here was Hall's usage over the final 13 games of last season:

• 65% snap rate
• 53% route rate
• 62% carry share
• 18% target share

He got significantly better usage in the opener -- and will be playing in a much better offense if Rodgers stays healthy.

Robinson has been unleashed in the post-Arthur Smith Era. He never topped an 81% snap rate last year, finishing at 68% for the season. Robinson's 82% carry share in the 2024 opener also topped any mark he registered last year.

Neither guy turned in a monster fantasy score in Week 1 -- Hall 20.3 PPR points, Robinson 16.1 -- so there might still be an opportunity to swing a blockbuster trade for them. Don't be afraid to send a Godfather offer.

Hall and Robinson both look like fantasy league-winners.

 

2. Buy the Elite TEs

TE was a disaster in Week 1. None of these top five in preseason ADP reached nine PPR points.

I'm not worried. They all posted solid-to-strong route rates. The targets and fantasy points will come.

If there's one guy to be slightly concerned about, it's Andrews. On top of the big Isaiah Likely game, Andrews' 75% route rate was 11 percentage points lower than his mark in nine healthy games last year.

He moves to the bottom of this list going forward -- and maybe even behind guys like Kyle Pitts and George Kittle. But he's still an easy weekly starter.

The other four -- particularly McBride and Kincaid -- are nice trade targets heading into Week 2.

 

3. Tank Bigsby Pushing Travis Etienne For Rushing Work

Bigsby was clearly part of Jacksonville's game plan in the opener. He started the second drive of the game and mixed in throughout. He ended up matching Etienne with 12 carries.

And Bigsby was easily the more effective runner. He beat Etienne in Week 1:

• Pro Football Focus rush grade
• Yards after contact per attempt
• Missed tackles forced per attempt
• Rush yards over expected per attempt

Etienne also lost a key fumble near the goal line in the third quarter. He was out-touched five to three by Bigsby the rest of the way.

Etienne's passing-game usage remained strong -- and I don't expect Bigsby to threaten that.

But it'll be interesting to see how the rushing work is distributed going forward.

Etienne is a tepid sell heading into Week 2 after scoring a TD in the opener. Bigsby remains a strong bench stash.

 

4. Zack Moss is Cincinnati’s No. 1 RB

Brown got all the hype in training camp. But Moss was the clear backfield leader in the opener.

He was also the more effective back, averaging 4.9 yards per carry to Browns' 3.7. Moss beat Brown in Pro Football Focus rushing grade and yards after contact per attempt.

Moss even edged Brown in route rate and target share. Per Pro Football Focus, Moss played eight of Cincinnati's nine third-down snaps and all three of the two-minute snaps.

Moss looks like a RB3 with RB2 upside if this Bengals offense gets going. Brown is worth holding on to but should be on benches for Week 2.

 

5. Isaiah Likely is Legit

We probably just saw Likely's best game of the season. But he's here to stay as a fantasy factor.

The Ravens finally committed to getting Likely and TE Mark Andrews on the field together. Baltimore had two TEs on the field for 53% of their snaps in the opener. That allowed Likely to register a 69% route rate, despite being the No. 2 TE in terms of playing time. He lined up in the slot or out wide on 47% of his snaps.

Likely, of course, was awesome in Kansas City. He averaged a massive 3.2 yards per route and led all TEs with 4+ targets in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

It's certainly worth noting that QB Lamar Jackson was forced to chuck it 41 times in catch-up mode. That won't be the case most weeks. Jackson averaged 28.6 passes per game last year.

But Likely looks like a clear top-three option in Baltimore's passing game going forward. Consider him a fringe TE1 with the potential to climb higher if his playing time grows.

  

6. Strange Usage in Broncos Backfield

Conventional wisdom had Williams as Denver's primary early-down back, with McLaughlin playing more in passing situations. It was the opposite in Week 1.

Per Pro Football Focus, McLaughlin out-snapped Williams 19 to 15 on early downs. Williams edged McLaughlin seven to five on third down and played nine snaps in the two-minute drill to McLaughlin's 0.

If this usage holds, Williams and McLaughlin will likely end up very similar in fantasy value. Of course, they were both big busts in Week 1 as the Broncos offense struggled in Seattle.

 

7. De’Von Achane is Miami’s No. 3 WR

Achane ranked third among all Dolphins in routes (28) and second in targets (7). He lined up in the slot 11 times and out wide four times. Achane turned that usage into seven catches for 76 yards.

Oh, he also led Miami with 10 carries and, maybe most surprisingly, got both of Miami's goal-line snaps.

Achane picked up an ankle injury in Week 1 that bears monitoring.

But if he continues to play this big a role in the passing game and gets a bigger chunk of the goal-line work than last year, Achane will push for top-5 fantasy production.

  

8. J.K. Dobbins Impressive in Return

Dobbins was my favorite story of Week 1. Returning from his second major injury, he ripped off 135 yards and a score on 10 attempts. That included big runs of 46 and 61 yards. He might score on both of those runs pre-Achilles injury. But Dobbins still has plus vision, balance, and burst.

Dobbins and Edwards split early-down snaps and carries in the opener -- but it'll be tough to the Chargers to stick with that plan with Dobbins clearly the better runner. Edwards turned his 11 carries vs. the Raiders into just 26 yards.

Dobbins is also already dominating passing-down work. That resulted in just three catches for four yards in Week 1, but more productive receiving games are coming.

Dobbins already looks like a weekly RB3 or flex play. He could climb into RB2 territory if he claims a bigger share of backfield work.

 

9. Buy D’Andre Swift

Swift was a Week 1 dud in the box score -- like every other Bear. But his playing time points to much better days ahead.

Swift controlled the early-down and passing-down snaps for Chicago. Most surprising was that RB Roschon Johnson was a healthy scratch and RB Khalil Herbert was third among RBs in snaps. That's bullish for Swift. Homer is not a threat.

If this usage continues and the Bears offense gets on track, Swift could produce as a fantasy RB2. He'd probably be cheap to acquire in a trade right now.

 

10. Volume Could Carry Rhamondre Stevenson

The Patriots might not get the game flow to rip off 32 RB carries again all season. But Stevenson's Week 1 role says he can at least be a lower-end RB2 even in negative game scripts.

On top of controlling early-down snaps and carries, Stevenson also dominated passing-game work. I expected Gibson to handle a good chunk of that.

The passing-game work is obviously huge on a New England offense that is likely to be trailing more often than not this season.

Hold Stevenson as a not-fun but low-end RB2. Gibson is a pure handcuff.