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Cole Kmet - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Cole Kmet
CHI

TE CHI

#21 Tight End

77 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 10
Experience: 1 Yr(s)
Age: 22
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 262
40 Time: 4.70

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Low Floor

0

DS Projection

2.6

Consensus

38 other sites
4

High Ceiling

5.2

Rest of
Season

4.4

Week 6 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
1.5 14 0.2 2.6
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
2.9 26.4 0.3 4.4

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Kmet drew just 2.2% target share through the first 9 games as a rookie. That jumped to 15.2% over the final 8 contests, including the playoff loss at New Orleans.
  • The rookie beat Jimmy Graham by 17 targets over that latter span, after trailing him by 47 through the first 9 contests.
  • Kmet’s playing time stayed under 40% through 7 games. Then it reached 43% and 47% in consecutive outings and 70% just before the Week 11 bye. Kmet played 78%+ every game beyond the bye; 84% or more in each of his final 5 games.
  • He ranked just 49th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, though, among 55 TEs who saw 20+ targets. Graham checked in 28th.
  • The Bears could have saved $7 million in cap space this offseason by releasing Graham, who heads into the final year of his contract and will turn 35 in November. As of this writing, at least, they have elected to keep him.
  • Graham’s presence likely hurts Kmet most in TD upside. According to PFF numbers, Kmet tied for 31st among TEs in total targets and 30th in red-zone targets. But he garnered just 1 end-zone target, which tied for 54th at the position. Graham, on the other hand, tied for 4th (11 targets).
  • Chicago went 6th most pass-heavy in the league last year, after finishing 2019 as the 11th most pass-heavy offense.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Kmet has some upside, which could increase if Jimmy Graham’s playing time dips further. His ceiling remains limited as long as Graham is around, though, because the veteran will always look most attractive near the end zone.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bears HC Matt Nagy said Wednesday that he anticipates TE Cole Kmet's role growing in 2021. His playing time spiked late in his rookie year, with Kmet registering a 70+% snap rate in each of final 8 games (including playoffs). But the production didn't follow. Kmet averaged just 5 targets, 3.1 catches and 22.5 yards per game over that stretch. There's plenty of room for those numbers to grow this year, especially in Chicago gets better QB play from Justin Fields and/or Andy Dalton.

View all Cole Kmet Shark Bites »

Bears TE Cole Kmet (shoulder) is active for today’s game against the Packers. The rookie was limited in the final 2 practices of the week, adding some risk to his Week 17 outlook.

View all Cole Kmet Shark Bites »

Bears TE Cole Kmet (shoulder) is questionable for this weekend’s game vs. the Packers. He was a full-go on Wednesday but limited on Thursday and Friday. We’re expecting Kmet to suit up for this win-and-in game, but check back Sunday to make sure he’s active.

View all Cole Kmet Shark Bites »

The Bears selected Notre Dame TE Cole Kmet in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Kmet goes 6’6, 262 pounds and tested as a 77th percentile athlete at the Combine, where he ran a 4.70-second 40-yard dash with a 37-inch vertical. He played both baseball and football for Notre Dame, emerging as the Irish’s top TE this past season. Kmet hauled in 43 balls for 515 yards and 6 scores, ranking 9th in yards per route run and 6th in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grade among 18 of this class’ top TEs. He doesn’t strike us as a high-upside fantasy prospect, and this isn’t a very inspiring landing spot. Kmet figures to sit behind Jimmy Graham this year but could take over as Chicago’s lead TE by 2021.

View all Cole Kmet Shark Bites »

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