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Cole Kmet - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsCole Kmet's Basic Stats

Cole Kmet
ADP: 11.7
Bye: 13
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 24.5
Height: 6'6"
Weight: 260
40 Time: 4.70
Speed Score: 106.80
Burst Score (Rank): 126.30 (89%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.85 (19%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.07 (66%)

Cole Kmet's Weekly Outlook

Week 5 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.8 39.1 0.3 5.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
3.2 33.9 0.3 5.2

Cole Kmet's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#10 Tight End

83.6 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
11.7 51.2 542 4.9 0.8 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsCole Kmet's Preseason Player Analysis

View TE Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

The Bears’ offense hits 2023 more crowded with pass catchers than last year’s version. And that edition was the league’s most run-heavy.

We’re betting on more passing this time around, after the Chase Claypool and D.J. Moore additions. But the shift will have to be dramatic to support multiple attractive fantasy pass-catchers.

Kmet’s OK as a low TE2 but shouldn’t excite you.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Kmet managed to finish eighth among PPR TEs last season but just 15th in points per game.
  • A large concentration of Kmet’s points came from Week 8 through Week 10. He finished as the TE1 overall in PPR in that span, with 5 TDs and a pair of top-5 weekly finishes.
  • Outside of that window, Kmet finished as a TE1 twice and outside of the top 24 in every other game he played.
  • The Notre Dame product ranked first on the Bears in targets (70), second in target share (19.3%, adjusted for games missed), and third in Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.37).
  • Among 27 TEs who saw 50+ targets in 2022, Kmet finished:
    • 18th in PFF receiving grade
    • T-17th in yards per route run (1.27)
    • ninth in yards after catch (293)


What to Expect in 2023
  • Kmet has improved in yards per target, yards per route run, and target share every season.
  • Unfortunately, that may not make a huge difference in a run-heavy Bears’ offense that ranked 31st in pass rate in 2022. Chicago has also traded for Chase Claypool and D.J. Moore since the middle of last season, crowding the target distribution.
  • If Kmet can make a push to be second-in-line for targets behind Moore, he has a decent chance of returning mid-TE2 production with TE1 spikes when he finds the end zone. But the underlying numbers don’t scream that a breakout is on the horizon.

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Cole Kmet, TE CHI

9:27pm EDT 10/1/23

Cole Kmet a big part of Bears offensive explosion

Bears TE Cole Kmet was on the receiving end of two of QB Justin Fields' four TD passes in Sunday's loss to the Broncos. More importantly, Kmet tied for the team lead with nine targets and finished behind only WR D.J. Moore with seven catches and 85 receiving yards. QB Justin Fields might never have a bigger passing day than he did in this one. But Kmet is playing a significant role in this passing game. He's now totaled 24 targets on a 19.5% target share through four weeks. If Fields and this passing game are just OK going forward, Kmet has a shot at top-12 production on that type of volume.

View all Cole Kmet Shark Bites »

Bears WR D.J. Moore racked up 104 yards on 6 receptions in Sunday's loss to the Buccaneers. His 7 targets ranked second on the team and accounted for 24.1% of QB Justin Fields' total pass attempts. Moore also garnered 49.3% of Chicago's receiving yards. The Bears passed or took a sack (six of them) on 68.6% of offensive snaps, leaning that way even in the first half. We'll be curious to see if that split continues. The Bears' early tendency toward trailing opponents would certainly help to drive up passing volume. WR Chase Claypool led the team Sunday with 8 targets, catching three for 36 yards and Fields' lone passing TD. TE Cole Kmet finished with 6 targets, 4 receptions and 38 yards. Chicago heads to Kansas City in Week 3 before hosting the Broncos in Week 4.

View all D.J. Moore Shark Bites »

Bears WR D.J. Moore struggled in his debut vs. the Packers, recording only 2 catches on as many targets for 25 yards. Teammate Darnell Mooney led the team with 7 targets, 4 catches, and 53 yards, along with a receiving TD. It’s bizarre that Moore saw such little volume, considering three different Bears (Mooney, TE Cole Kmet, RB Roschon Johnson) saw 7 targets in the Week 1 loss. Moore’s totals are even more puzzling when realizing that his new QB, Justin Fields, attempted 37 passes, two fewer than his career-high of 39 (2021 Week 15). Hopefully, the veteran can regroup in Week 2 vs. a Buccaneers defense that surrendered the second-most passing yards (344) in the NFL on Sunday. We'll chalk this one up to the occasional bad luck game for now.

View all D.J. Moore Shark Bites »

The Bears signed TE Cole Kmet to a four-year, $50 million contract extension with $32.8 million guaranteed. The deal ties Kmet with Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith (LOL) for ninth among TEs in average annual salary. He's now signed through the 2027 season. It's a surprisingly lucrative deal for a guy who's been just fine through three NFL seasons. Kmet has racked up 110 catches over the last two -- 13th most among TEs -- but averaged just 10.5 yards per catch. He ranked 25th and then 22nd at his position in Pro Football Focus receiving grade. Kmet is coming off a TE16 finish in PPR points per game -- and even that was boosted by a 14% TD rate. With WR D.J. Moore bringing additional target competition in a run-heavy offense, Kmet sits in mid-range TE2 territory in our rankings.

View all Cole Kmet Shark Bites »

The Bears signed TE Robert Tonyan to a 1-year deal. Tonyan spiked for an 11-TD season in 2020 but tore an ACL midway through the 2021 campaign. He made it back for the start of this past season but was barely fantasy relevant, finishing with 53 catches, 470 yards and 2 TDs. Tonyan ranked 29th among 32 qualifying TEs in Pro Football Focus' receiving grades. Perhaps he bounces back in 2023, another year removed from that knee injury. But Tonyan figures to slot in as Chicago's #2 TE as long as Cole Kmet is healthy. Consider Tonyan no more than a TE3 in early fantasy drafts.

View all Robert Tonyan Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View TE Dynasty Rankings »

Cole Kmet, TE CHI
Dynasty MVP 51.1
Position Rank #29 TE
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
159
257
488
Dynasty Write-up
2022 turned up career highs in TDs and YPC for Kmet. Still, he remained volatile in a thin, low-volume pass offense led by QB Justin Fields. Turning 24 in March, Kmet is set to enter the final year of his rookie deal. Target competition is set to rise in 2023, too, following the arrival of WR D.J. Moore.
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