Cooper Kupp - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Kupp is a tricky evaluation heading into 2024. His volume and production remained solid when healthy last year, despite Puka Nacua’s breakout. Kupp drew a 26.4% target share and scored as WR20 in his healthy games.

But he missed four games and most of a fifth with injury and posted career lows in both yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. Now 31, it’s certainly possible that Kupp’s decline continues in 2024.

He carries a wide range of outcomes, with a ceiling well into WR1 territory but a floor outside the top-25 WRs.

What We Learned Last Year

• Kupp missed the first four games of last season after dealing with a lingering hamstring injury throughout August.
• He was also knocked out early in Week 11 with an ankle injury and sat out a meaningless regular-season finale.
• Kupp averaged 14.6 PPR points in his 11 healthy games. That would have ranked 20th among WRs for the season.
• Kupp was a volatile weekly producer. He finished as a top-12 PPR WR in four of those 11 healthy games but ranked outside the top 30 six times.
• If we include the playoff loss to the Lions, Kupp totaled 103 targets on a 25.9% share in 12 healthy games.
  • That just barely trailed Puka Nacua, who totaled 105 targets on a 26.4% share.
• Kupp registered career lows last year in both yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
  • He ranked 32nd in yards per route and 41st in Pro Football Focus receiving grade among 80 qualifying WRs.
• After catching 76.1% of his targets and averaging 9.5 yards per target across 2021 and 2022, Kupp sunk to a 62.1% catch rate and 7.8 yards per target last year.

What to Expect in 2024

• Kupp returns to almost an identical situation this season.
  • HC Sean McVay and OC Mike LaFleur are back.
  • QB Matt Stafford is back.
  • The Rams return their top four WRs in Kupp, Nacua, Demarcus Robinson, and Tutu Atwell.
  • TE Tyler Higbee figures to miss the start of the season after tearing his right ACL and MCL in the Wild Card loss to the Lions. The Rams added TE Colby Parkinson on a three-year, $22.5 million free-agent deal.
• The Rams have consistently ranked near the top of the league in total WR PPR points under McVay.
  • 2017 - 4th
  • 2018 - 4th
  • 2019 - 4th
  • 2020 - 12th
  • 2021 - 1st
  • 2022 - 16th
  • 2023 - 3rd
• Kupp turned 31 in June. Our aging-curve data projects between 85-90% of peak production from a 31-year-old WR of Kupp’s caliber – down from 88-93% at age-30. Kupp’s decline risk feels elevated after those career lows in yards per route run and Pro Football Focus receiving grade last year.
• Kupp has missed 23 games over his seven NFL seasons, including 13 over the last two. His injury history includes a torn ACL, three ankle injuries, and one concussion.
• Our Injury Predictor gives Kupp a 53.8% chance of injury and projects him for 1.4 missed games this year.
• Stafford is one of the biggest injury risks at his position. Our Injury Predictor gives him the second-highest chance of injury at QB (80.3%) and the third-most projected games missed (2.7).
• The Rams at least added solid insurance this offseason in QB Jimmy Garoppolo.