What You Need to Know:

• Kupp compiled a 92-974-3 line in 15 games last year. He missed the regular-season finale on the COVID list.
• Through Week 16, Kupp ranked 18th among WRs in PPR points and 27th in non-PPR.
• He was a volatile fantasy option, finishing as a top-24 PPR WR in just 4 of 15 games. That 26.7% rate ranked just 40th. He scored as a top-12 WR 3 times -- tied for 24th most.
• Kupp posted a 94-1,1161-10 line back in 2019, finishing 4th among WRs across fantasy scoring formats.
• The only major difference between his past 2 seasons has been TD production.
  • After overachieving in that department with a 10.6% TD rate in 2019, Kupp sunk to a well-below-average 3.3% TD rate last year.
  • The Rams went from 70 passes inside the red zone in 2019 to 56 last year; and from 37 passes inside the 10 to 25.
  • Kupp’s share of targets in those areas also declined: from 26% to 21% in the red zone and from 27% to 20% inside the 10.
  • Kupp scored 7 red-zone TDs in 2019, including 6 inside the 10. He dropped to just 2 red-zone TDs and 1 inside the 10 last year.
• Expect more red-zone opportunities for the Rams offense in 2021.
  • HC Sean McVay is back for his 5th season with the team.
  • QB Matt Stafford likely presents an upgrade from Jared Goff. Stafford has earned a higher Pro Football Focus passing grade than Goff in 2 straight seasons and 3 of the last 4.
• Stafford should also help unlock more of Kupp’s downfield ability after Goff struggled mightily in that department last year.
  • Goff’s Pro Football Focus grade on deep passes over the last 4 seasons: 90.6, 93.2, 85.2, 58.
  • Stafford’s deep-passing grades over the same span: 89.7, 92.7, 85.3, 93.0.
• Kupp averaged 14.0 and 14.2 yards per catch on 9.7 and 8.8-yard average depths of targets in 2017 and 2018. He sunk to 12.4 yards per catch on a 7.3-yard aDot in 2019. And last year, Kupp averaged a career-low 10.6 yards per catch on a 6.3-yard aDot. That latter mark ranked 74th among 77 qualifying WRs.
• The Rams lost WR Josh Reynolds and TE Gerald Everett in free agency. They ranked 3rd and 4th, respectively, on last year’s team with 81 and 62 targets.
• L.A. added free-agent WR DeSean Jackson and rookie WR Tutu Atwell. WR Robert Woods and 2020 2nd-round WR Van Jefferson return.
• Kupp has averaged 8.4 and 8.3 targets per game over the past 2 seasons. He projects for similar volume in 2021.
• He injured his right knee in last year’s Wild Card Round win over the Seahawks and missed the Divisional Round loss to the Packers. Kupp revealed in June that it was a Morel-Lavallee lesion, which is caused by the separation of the skin and tissue. “My knee is doing really well,” he added.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Kupp got a bit unlucky to score just 3 times last year, despite ranking 9th among WRs in catches. He still finished WR18 in PPR points and WR27 in non-PPR. And that followed WR4 finishes in 2019 on 10 TDs -- so it’s not like the guy hasn’t proved capable of finding the end zone.

Kupp returns to the same offense in 2021, projects for similar volume and gets a likely QB upgrade in Matt Stafford. He’s a rock-solid WR2 with upside into WR1 territory.