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Josh Allen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJosh Allen's Basic Stats

Josh Allen
ADP: 2.6
Bye: 12
Experience: 6
Age: 28.1
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 237
40 Time: 4.75

SPARQx (Rank): 96.70 (72%)
Burst Score (Rank): 118.10 (78%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.30 (71%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 62.00 (100%)

Josh Allen's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
252.8 1.73 0.8 37.4 22.3
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
274.2 2 0.8 38.5 24.2

Josh Allen's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#2 Quarterback

357 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
2.6 355.2/553.6 4044.8 27.68 12.8 120 598.4 4.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJosh Allen's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Allen has finished as a top-3 fantasy QB in four straight seasons.

The Stefon Diggs trade removes his biggest producer in each of those standout campaigns. But in our eyes, the Bills will be OK with new arrivals Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. Plus, Allen’s rushing remains a key fantasy driver.

We’d be surprised if he falls outside of the top-3 fantasy QBs.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Allen finished as the QB1 in total fantasy points (473.7) and points per game (27.9).
    • He tied for the league-league in top-5 fantasy finishes (nine).
    • He finished worse than QB14 only twice.
  • He didn’t miss a game due to injury for the fifth straight season.
  • Allen’s, completion rate, yards per attempt, TD rate, and passing success rate all fell in line with career norms.
    • His 3.1% INT rate marked his highest figure since 2018. That turned into a career-high 18 picks.
  • Allen played behind a cohesive O-line that ranked sixth in ESPN’s pass-block win rate; ninth in Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking grades.
  • Buffalo swapped out OC/playcaller Ken Dorsey for Joe Brady in Week 11.
    • Allen averaged 4.8 rushes per game with Dorsey; 9.2 under Brady.
  • In total, Allen set a career-high with 15 rushing TDs. Allen’s 21 rushes inside the ten yard-line were topped by only 14 ball carriers.
  • Overall, Buffalo’s approach tilted towards the run game under Brady. The Bills ranked near the bottom of the league in pass rate over expected in Brady’s nine-game sample.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs in April.
    • The 30-year-old has hit 154 targets and 8+ TDs in all four seasons with the Bills.
  • The Bills spent an early Round 2 pick on FSU WR Keon Coleman.
    • Only 21, Coleman brings much-needed size to the WR corps – especially after the departure of Gabe Davis.
    • He's a ball-winner at 6'3, 213 pounds. While his timed speed underwhelmed (4.61), his play speed suggests he can eventually thrive in a starting role.
  • A mostly returning O-line remains solid heading into September.
    • Allen's bookended by a massive tackle duo of Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown.
  • Joe Brady enters his first full season as Bills’ OC.
    • Brady drew a HC interview with Atlanta but returns for his third season with Buffalo. He adds an element of continuity for Allen.

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Stefon Diggs, WR HOU

11:03am EDT 4/3/24

Stefon Diggs trade shakes up two offenses

According to multiple reports, the Bills are sending WR Stefon Diggs to the Texans. Buffalo is also sending a 2024 sixth-round pick and 2025 fifth-rounder to Houston, while getting back only a second-round pick in 2025. Diggs' production fell off late last season after the Bills switched offensive coordinators. Now 30 and in a new offense, Diggs will have to show he's not in decline. He'll add the challenge of splitting targets with Houston's emergent young wideouts. Nico Collins (seventh) and Tank Dell (12th) both ranked among the top 12 WRs in PPR points per game last season, with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The Diggs addition obviously lowers the target-share ceiling for all three wideouts. We'll also have to see exactly how Houston plans to deploy them. Diggs spent 35.7% of his pass snaps in the slot last year; 34.2% the year before. He topped 30% in that category for three of his four Buffalo seasons, surpassed only by his 2016 sophomore season (62.9%). Collins spent 20.1% of his time in the slot last year; Dell 28.7%. We'd bet on all three moving around the formation some. But Diggs could wind up primarily replacing Robert Woods (55.5% slot) and Noah Brown (39.3%). The trio gives Stroud one of the league's best WR groups and boosts his fantasy upside. The QB already sat sixth at the position in Underdog Fantasy ADP, though. That adds risk to Stroud as a draft target and gives him little room to move up. QB Josh Allen, meanwhile, has lost his top two wideouts (Gabe Davis the other) while adding only WR Curtis Samuel this offseason. The dearth of remaining talent adds risk to his fantasy outlook, though you shouldn't expect the high-level rusher to move significantly down our rankings. As for other affected players: Diggs' departure leaves target share available for TE Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. His arrival in Houston makes life tougher for TE Dalton Schultz. He already sat just 13th among TEs in best ball ADP, though, and will likely fall further following this trade. Be sure to check our rankings for your format to see all the effects of this high-impact deal.

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The Steelers-Bills game originally scheduled for 1 pm ET on Sunday has been moved to 4:30 pm ET on Monday. Buffalo is expecting heavy snow and wind gusts up to 60 mph on Sunday. The forecast for Monday calls for light snow, sustained winds around 15 mph, and gusts up to 30 mph. That's still tough weather for the passing and kicking games -- but significantly better than it would have been on Sunday. We're adjusting our projections for this game.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Josh Allen, QB BUF
Dynasty MVP 304.9
Position Rank #7 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
990
1,593
2,656
Dynasty Write-up
2023 turned up a career-high in rushing TDs...and declines in passing yards per game and passing TDs per game. Allen is under contract through the 2028 season but lost Stefon Diggs to an April trade to Houston. Keon Coleman arrived as a big-bodied target with red zone chops.
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