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Podcast: Week 6 FanDuel 10-15-21
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Josh Allen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Josh Allen
BUF

QB BUF

#2 Quarterback

445 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 7
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 237
40 Time: 4.75

Weekly Outlook

3d Projection

Med Floor

21.8

DS Projection

28

Consensus

38 other sites
29

Low Ceiling

31.6

Rest of
Season

26

Week 6 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
298 2.1 0.8 37 28
Weekly Writeup
Allen leads all QBs in fantasy points over the past 3 weeks. The Bills offense enters this one healthy, so expect Allen to continue rolling.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
290.6 2 0.9 25.9 26
Week 5
Allen completed 15 of 26 passes for 315 yards and 3 TDs, adding 59 yards and another TD on 11 carries, in the Bills' Week 5 win over the Chiefs.
Allen had a monster game despite only completing 15 passes and the Bills getting dominated in time of possession.
Allen hit several chunk plays with a 61-yarder to Stefon Diggs, a 35-yarder to Emmanuel Sanders and 3 bombs to Dawson Knox.
Allen is now the MVP favorite going in to Week 6 and should continue to shine against a terrible Titans defense.
Week 4
Despite playing in heavy rain, Allen had little trouble moving the ball at will against an overmatched Texans defense. With the game out of hand early, he threw a season-low 29 passes, including a pair of TD strikes to Dawson Knox. He still showed some of the inconsistencies from the 1st 2 games of the year when he threw an INT right to a LB he didn’t seem to see. But otherwise, it was an ultra-productive game for the fantasy star.

After struggling a bit against a pair of strong pass defenses to start the year, Allen has been dominant against the two excellent matchups he’s just had. Obviously, in a high-octane offense along with his rushing ability, he’ll always have an excellent floor, but it’s yet uncertain how high his upside will be when he faces the better defenses. Regardless, he’ll remain an unquestioned fantasy starter each week, and he should finish the season as a top-4 fantasy option.
Week 3
The breakout game many had been waiting for finally happened for Allen. Against Washington, he completed 32 of 43 passes for 348 yards and 4 TDs. Both his passing yards and TDs were season highs. He also added 9 yards and a score on 4 rushes.

While we have seen flashes of the elite upside, Allen had yet to put it together for 4 quarters. The performance against Washington was the one we knew was possible.

Going forward, more performances like this week should be well within the range of outcomes. Allen provides a safe floor with the rushing upside he possesses and can win you a week with a game like this.
Week 2
Allen didn’t light up the box score in Sunday’s win over Miami … partly because he didn’t have to. Buffalo cruised to a 35-0 win. Allen, meanwhile, completed only 17 of 33 passes for 179 yards, 2 TDs and 1 pick. That’s an ugly 5.4 YPA, while his Pro Football Focus passing grade rested at 45.4 — his lowest since 2019. He added 35 rushing yards and missed a rushing score by inches — a development that would have moved him from QB20 to QB10. With a healthy supporting cast, Allen’s play should certainly rebound. Whether it returns to 2020 levels is another story, but as long as his rushing production remains, Allen will stick as a no-doubt QB1. His schedule helps, too. After Washington, the Bills face Houston, Kansas City and Tennessee.
Week 1
Allen was 1 of the biggest surprises of the week … and not for reasons fantasy owners expected. The 2020 breakout star managed just 1 TD and 270 yards on 30-of-51 passing. (Allen never hit 50 attempts last season.) We saw shades of his 2019 decision-making, although it’s important to not overreact to the 1-game sample. Pittsburgh still looks like a top-tier defense. And Allen’s adjusted completion rate — per Pro Football Focus — wound up 20th among QBs. Not awful. He added a pair of goal line rushes, although he came up empty en route to 44 yards. Given the offensive philosophy and supporting cast, it’ll be tough for Allen to fail this season. Look for improvement Week 2 against Miami.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Allen ranked as the QB2 in fantasy PPG last year (29.1). That followed finishes of QB22 (2018) and QB20 (2019).
  • Allen set career highs across the board. Most notably, Allen posted a 69.2% completion rate — way up from his previous career high of 58.8%.
  • Allen’s accuracy took a huge leap forward alongside new Bill Stefon Diggs. Pro Football Reference charted Allen’s on-target rate at 79.1% — 7th best among 30 QBs with 300+ attempts.
  • His TD rate jumped from 4.3% to 6.5% — a top-10 mark league-wide.
  • Buffalo’s pass rate jumped from 52.5% in 2019 to 59.2% last season. Expect a similar figure in 2021.
  • Among QBs, Allen ranked 4th in rush attempts (102), 8th in rushing yards (421) and T-3rd in rushing TDs (8).
  • The Bills return the same HC (Sean McDermott), OC (Brian Daboll) and QB coach (Ken Dorsey).
  • Buffalo lost John Brown in free agency but added another veteran in Emmanuel Sanders. With Diggs, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis returning, this WR corps remains strong.
  • While we’ll see competition, Buffalo returns the same key pieces along the O-line. They’ll look for improvement after Allen faced pressure on 37.1% of his dropbacks — 7th most among 32 QBs with 300+ dropbacks.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Allen was an incredible value in 2020 drafts. He delivered seven top-3 fantasy weeks during a no-doubt breakout season.

Consistent production on the ground only adds to his high-end value. Allen’s 8 rushing TDs from last year followed seasons with 8 and 9. The 25-year-old has played the role of a part-time goal line back with 19 career carries inside the 5 yard-line.

A Round 3/4 ADP is tough to pay for given the league’s historic QB depth. But with the same offensive environment surrounding Allen in year 4, another monster season is within reach.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The Bills signed QB Josh Allen to a 6-year extension through the 2027 season, per ESPN’s Chris Mortensen. The deal carries a total value of $258 million and gives Allen more guaranteed cash ($150 million) than Patrick Mahomes ($141 million). It’s only striking because Allen has just 1 season of high-end production to his name. Of course, Buffalo’s all-in on the 25-year-old — and fantasy drafters are, too. He’s coming off the board 2nd among QBs in all FFPC formats.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

The forecast for today's Patriots-Bills game calls for a chance of rain and 20 mph sustained winds with gusts over 30. That certainly puts a damper on the passing games. New England figured to go run-heavy anyway, so the bigger impact is on Josh Allen and Co. We'd also avoid both kickers in this game.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Related Players Nick Folk, Cam Newton, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Bass

As of 12:30 pm ET on Sunday, the Bills-Titans game remains on for Tuesday night. There's still plenty of time for that to change, so you'll need to decide for yourself whether you want to risk leaving Bills and Titans players in your lineups. It'd be nice to at least have backup options available from Monday night's Chargers-Saints game. We've left our full projections in place for Bills and Titans players in the Week 5 Rankings.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Related Players Ryan Tannehill, John Brown, Stefon Diggs, Derrick Henry, Jonnu Smith, A.J. Brown, Devin Singletary, Zack Moss

This week's Bills-Titans game has been moved to Tuesday at 6 pm ET, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. That's only if Tennessee has no more positive COVID tests, though. It's unclear what will happen to this game if the Titans have more positives, but we know that it won't be part of Week 5. The good news is that it sounds like we'll know for sure whether we'll have Bills and Titans players available for fantasy lineups this week within the next 24 hours.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Related Players Ryan Tannehill, John Brown, Stefon Diggs, Derrick Henry, Jonnu Smith, A.J. Brown, Devin Singletary

Here's what Bills HC Sean McDermott said Tuesday about how he'll handle his team's meaningless Sunday finale against the Jets, according to SNY.tv: "We're going to play a majority of the guys. To go into detail will take some time, but the majority of guys will play, not all of them. Josh (Allen) will play. They're not all going to play the same amount in the game. We're going to be smart with that, but it's important that we get work in fundamentally and in terms of execution and we stay as sharp as can be." Translation: Expect most starters to play. Don't expect any key guys to make it past halftime. We'd plan on not using QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary or the WRs, if you can help it.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Related Players Cole Beasley, John Brown, Devin Singletary

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