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What You Need to Know:
-Allen ranked as the QB2 in fantasy PPG last year (29.1). That followed finishes of QB22 (2018) and QB20 (2019).
-Allen set career highs across the board. Most notably, Allen posted a 69.2% completion rate — way up from his previous career high of 58.8%.
-Allen’s accuracy took a huge leap forward alongside new Bill Stefon Diggs. Pro Football Reference charted Allen’s on-target rate at 79.1% — 7th best among 30 QBs with 300+ attempts.
-His TD rate jumped from 4.3% to 6.5% — a top-10 mark league-wide.
-Buffalo’s pass rate jumped from 52.5% in 2019 to 59.2% last season. Expect a similar figure in 2021.
-Among QBs, Allen ranked 4th in rush attempts (102), 8th in rushing yards (421) and T-3rd in rushing TDs (8).
-The Bills return the same HC (Sean McDermott), OC (Brian Daboll) and QB coach (Ken Dorsey).
-Buffalo lost John Brown in free agency but added another veteran in Emmanuel Sanders. With Diggs, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis returning, this WR corps remains strong.
-While we’ll see competition, Buffalo returns the same key pieces along the O-line. They’ll look for improvement after Allen faced pressure on 37.1% of his dropbacks — 7th most among 32 QBs with 300+ dropbacks.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:
Allen was an incredible value in 2020 drafts. He delivered seven top-3 fantasy weeks during a no-doubt breakout season.
Consistent production on the ground only adds to his high-end value. Allen’s 8 rushing TDs from last year followed seasons with 8 and 9. The 25-year-old has played the role of a part-time goal line back with 19 career carries inside the 5 yard-line.
A Round 3/4 ADP is tough to pay for given the league’s historic QB depth. But with the same offensive environment surrounding Allen in year 4, another monster season is within reach.