Josh Allen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats

QB BUF

#2 Quarterback

445 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available

Bye: 7

Experience: 3 Yr(s)

Age: 25

Height: 6'5"

Weight: 237

40 Time: 4.75

Weekly Outlook

Week 21 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Week 14
Allen completed 36 of 54 passes for 308 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in the Bills' Week 14 overtime loss to the Bucs, adding 12 carries for 109 additional yards and 1 TD.
The Bills fell behind 24-3 and Allen led a ferocious 2nd half comeback as he put the team on his back for 300+ passing yards and 100+ rushing. The 300-yard passing, 100-yard rushing performance was just the 4th in NFL history.
Allen and the Bills had a shot to win it in regulation, but the refs did not call a possible pass interference penalty on Stefon Diggs in the end zone with under 30 seconds remaining.
The Bills got the ball first in OT but were forced to punt the ball back to Brady and the Bucs.
Josh Allen injured his foot during the game and the Bills are saying that he is day to day.
Allen is a top 5 fantasy QB as long as he’s healthy. The Bills take on the Panthers in Week 15.

Week 13
It was a difficult night for Josh Allen and the Bills passing attack on Monday Night Football against the New England Patriots. The winds were consistently around 20+ MPH, with gusts up to 50 MPH. Allen struggled to push the ball down the field and when he did, he was mostly ineffective in linking up with his receivers. Allen also was credited with a fumble on a bad exchange with Matt Breida deep in Pats territory in the 1st quarter.

The best part of the night for Allen was a 14-yard TD pass to Gabriel Davis off a beautiful play-action fake. Allen finished the night 15 of 30 for 145 yards and 1 TD, adding 6 carries for 39 yards on the ground.

You can completely throw this game out statistically, Allen had thrown 8 TDs in the 3 games prior to this anomaly. He’s our QB1 for Week 14 against Tampa Bay. The Bucs allowed 297 passing yards to Matt Ryan last week and 306 to Carson Wentz the game before.

Allen faces tougher spots the following 2 games, vs. Carolina and at New England.

Week 12
Allen and the passing game weren’t needed much in this blowout of the Saints on Thanksgiving night in a game where New Orleans was missing 14 starters. Allen didn’t need many opportunities to put 4 passing TDs on the board. However, he also had 2 INTs in plus territory in the 2nd quarter. Allen was able to do almost whatever he wanted through the air or on the ground throughout the game. Allen finished the night 23/28 for 260 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs. He added 43 rushing yards on 8 carries. Allen now has 8 turnovers (7 INTs) over the Bills last 4 games. He will need to clean that up against a tough Patriots defense. We have Allen ranked at QB6 this week against the Patriots. The Patriots have held opposing QBs to less than 175 yards passing in each of their last four games. The next three games on the schedule for the Bills are NE, @TB, and CAR.

Week 11
Allen struggled against a Colts pass D that took away the big plays. On 21 of 35 passing, Allen managed just 209 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Buffalo was blown out in this one (41-15) in a truly shocking outcome — especially with the Bills playing at home. Both scores went to Stefon Diggs, who was oddly limited to just 6 targets. (Dawson Knox led the way with 10.) Allen entered Week 11 with 25 fantasy points in 6 of his past 7, so we’re not too worried about him going forward. He might not be 2020 Allen, but this Bills offense remains heavily weighted towards the pass. Next up is a tough Thanksgiving (road) matchup at New Orleans.

Week 10
Allen got back on the horse this week, completing 21 of 28 passes for 366 yards. Unfortunately, when Buffalo found the end zone, which was a lot against the Jets, Allen only got credit for 2 of the 6 trips. This performance could have been massive. But after not throwing for any TDs against Jacksonville, it was a welcome sight. Thus far, Allen has only failed to produce 2 or more passing TDs in a game twice.

The rushing floor we have seen thus far was nonexistent as he gained just 3 yards on his 2 attempts. This was only the 2nd time he failed to hit 25 yards all season, including 50 or more yards in 3 of the previous 4 contests.

Going forward, there is little reason to doubt Allen. The rushing floor combined with consistent TD potential makes him as rock solid as they come. His ceiling performances haven't really come to fruition either, so a monster close to the season could absolutely be in the works.

Week 9
There are surprises each week of the NFL season. Buffalo losing to Jacksonville 9-6 — and Allen playing easily his worst game all year — simply takes the surprise to another level. He went without a TD on 31 of 47 passing and added 3 turnovers (2 picks, 1 fumble). Allen was late over the middle and threw flat-footed for one particularly egregious turnover. Overall, Buffalo’s offensive line really stunk in this one. Allen took 4 sacks and faced pressure on ~40% of his dropbacks, nearly 5 percentage points above his season average. Nevertheless, we’re largely chalking this one up as 1 bad game. Allen still added 50 rushing yards on 5 attempts. And prior to Sunday, Allen hit 24 fantasy points in 5 straight. He should rebound Sunday against a Jets pass D missing S Marcus Maye.

Week 8
Allen’s first half was a forgettable one. He made several suspect decisions and made little progress beyond a wide open 34-yard rush. Buffalo and Miami entered halftime tied at 3. The 2nd half would turn out much differently, though, as Allen hit Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs for scores. Allen also added a rushing TD on 3rd down in garbage time. The MVP candidate has now hit 30 fantasy points in 3 straight. Next up is a bottom-barrel Jags pass D that’s 31st in yards per attempt allowed.

Week 6
Allen continues to put up impressive numbers in an MVP-caliber season. His biggest negative on the night was an INT on a tipped ball in the 2nd quarter. However, he was able to find Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Tommy Sweeney for TDs throughout the game. He even was used as a receiver on a double reverse pass on a 2-point conversion at the end of the 3rd quarter. He continues to be leaned on heavily in an offense that wants to throw the ball throughout the game, no matter the score. He finished 35 of 47 for 353 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. He added 26 rushing yards on 9 attempts.
Allen is having a massive season, averaging over 318 passing yards in the last 4 games and adding 12 passing TDs in that same span. He has added 135 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs in those 4 games. The Bills have a bye in Week 7. After the bye, Allen and the Bills get a Miami defense that has allowed 13 passing TDs through their first 6 games. It will be another opportunity for Allen and the passing game to have success through the air, as they do most weeks. The next three games on the schedule following the bye week are MIA, @JAX, and @NYJ. We have Allen as the overall QB1 for the rest of the season.

Week 5
Allen completed 15 of 26 passes for 315 yards and 3 TDs, adding 59 yards and another TD on 11 carries, in the Bills' Week 5 win over the Chiefs.
Allen had a monster game despite only completing 15 passes and the Bills getting dominated in time of possession.
Allen hit several chunk plays with a 61-yarder to Stefon Diggs, a 35-yarder to Emmanuel Sanders and 3 bombs to Dawson Knox.
Allen is now the MVP favorite going in to Week 6 and should continue to shine against a terrible Titans defense.

Week 4
Despite playing in heavy rain, Allen had little trouble moving the ball at will against an overmatched Texans defense. With the game out of hand early, he threw a season-low 29 passes, including a pair of TD strikes to Dawson Knox. He still showed some of the inconsistencies from the 1st 2 games of the year when he threw an INT right to a LB he didn’t seem to see. But otherwise, it was an ultra-productive game for the fantasy star.

After struggling a bit against a pair of strong pass defenses to start the year, Allen has been dominant against the two excellent matchups he’s just had. Obviously, in a high-octane offense along with his rushing ability, he’ll always have an excellent floor, but it’s yet uncertain how high his upside will be when he faces the better defenses. Regardless, he’ll remain an unquestioned fantasy starter each week, and he should finish the season as a top-4 fantasy option.

Week 3
The breakout game many had been waiting for finally happened for Allen. Against Washington, he completed 32 of 43 passes for 348 yards and 4 TDs. Both his passing yards and TDs were season highs. He also added 9 yards and a score on 4 rushes.

While we have seen flashes of the elite upside, Allen had yet to put it together for 4 quarters. The performance against Washington was the one we knew was possible.

Going forward, more performances like this week should be well within the range of outcomes. Allen provides a safe floor with the rushing upside he possesses and can win you a week with a game like this.

Week 2
Allen didn’t light up the box score in Sunday’s win over Miami … partly because he didn’t have to. Buffalo cruised to a 35-0 win. Allen, meanwhile, completed only 17 of 33 passes for 179 yards, 2 TDs and 1 pick. That’s an ugly 5.4 YPA, while his Pro Football Focus passing grade rested at 45.4 — his lowest since 2019. He added 35 rushing yards and missed a rushing score by inches — a development that would have moved him from QB20 to QB10. With a healthy supporting cast, Allen’s play should certainly rebound. Whether it returns to 2020 levels is another story, but as long as his rushing production remains, Allen will stick as a no-doubt QB1. His schedule helps, too. After Washington, the Bills face Houston, Kansas City and Tennessee.

Week 1
Allen was 1 of the biggest surprises of the week … and not for reasons fantasy owners expected. The 2020 breakout star managed just 1 TD and 270 yards on 30-of-51 passing. (Allen never hit 50 attempts last season.) We saw shades of his 2019 decision-making, although it’s important to not overreact to the 1-game sample. Pittsburgh still looks like a top-tier defense. And Allen’s adjusted completion rate — per Pro Football Focus — wound up 20th among QBs. Not awful. He added a pair of goal line rushes, although he came up empty en route to 44 yards. Given the offensive philosophy and supporting cast, it’ll be tough for Allen to fail this season. Look for improvement Week 2 against Miami.

Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

Allen ranked as the QB2 in fantasy PPG last year (29.1). That followed finishes of QB22 (2018) and QB20 (2019).
Allen set career highs across the board. Most notably, Allen posted a 69.2% completion rate — way up from his previous career high of 58.8%.
Allen’s accuracy took a huge leap forward alongside new Bill Stefon Diggs. Pro Football Reference charted Allen’s on-target rate at 79.1% — 7th best among 30 QBs with 300+ attempts.
His TD rate jumped from 4.3% to 6.5% — a top-10 mark league-wide.
Buffalo’s pass rate jumped from 52.5% in 2019 to 59.2% last season. Expect a similar figure in 2021.
Among QBs, Allen ranked 4th in rush attempts (102), 8th in rushing yards (421) and T-3rd in rushing TDs (8).
The Bills return the same HC (Sean McDermott), OC (Brian Daboll) and QB coach (Ken Dorsey).
Buffalo lost John Brown in free agency but added another veteran in Emmanuel Sanders. With Diggs, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis returning, this WR corps remains strong.
While we’ll see competition, Buffalo returns the same key pieces along the O-line. They’ll look for improvement after Allen faced pressure on 37.1% of his dropbacks — 7th most among 32 QBs with 300+ dropbacks.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Allen was an incredible value in 2020 drafts. He delivered seven top-3 fantasy weeks during a no-doubt breakout season.

Consistent production on the ground only adds to his high-end value. Allen’s 8 rushing TDs from last year followed seasons with 8 and 9. The 25-year-old has played the role of a part-time goal line back with 19 career carries inside the 5 yard-line.

A Round 3/4 ADP is tough to pay for given the league’s historic QB depth. But with the same offensive environment surrounding Allen in year 4, another monster season is within reach.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bills QB Josh Allen (foot) was limited in practice all week but isn’t listed on the final injury report. He’ll play vs. the Panthers on Sunday. That’s a negative matchup, and Allen won’t be at 100%. But he still sits comfortably inside our top 10 QBs for Week 15.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Bills QB Josh Allen (foot) remained limited in Thursday's practice. All signs continue to point toward him playing vs. the Panthers this weekend, but check back tomorrow for another update.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Bills QB Josh Allen (foot) will be limited in Wednesday's walkthrough, HC Sean McDermott said. It's a good sign that he'll be out there at all this early in the week. Allen seems to be trending toward playing vs. the Panthers on Sunday, but we'll continue to keep a close eye on him.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Bills HC Sean McDermott told the media Monday afternoon that QB Josh Allen has been diagnosed with a foot sprain. He made no mention of a toe injury. McDermott also said that Allen has a "chance" to play vs. the Panthers on Sunday, so it sounds like his availability is in some doubt. QB Mitchell Trubisky is Buffalo's backup. We'll keep you updated on Allen's status all week.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Bills QB Josh Allen is believed to be dealing with a "mild case" of turf toe, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Allen is scheduled for additional testing on Monday. He was able to play through the issue in Tampa Bay and didn't seem too worried about the injury after the loss. It sounds like Allen will be able to play vs. the Panthers this weekend, but we'll keep you updated.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

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