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Josh Allen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJosh Allen's Basic Stats

Josh Allen
ADP: 2.7
Bye: 13
Experience: 5 Yr(s)
Age: 27.3
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 237
40 Time: 4.75
SPARQx (Rank): 96.70 (74%)
Burst Score (Rank): 118.10 (80%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.30 (71%)
Throw Velocity (Rank): 62.00 (100%)

Josh Allen's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
277.1 2 0.9 35.2 22.9
Weekly Writeup
Allen's hit 25 fantasy points in back to back outings. He combined for 103.2 points in three meetings with Miami last season.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Yds TDs INT Rush Yds Fantasy Pts
272.6 2.1 1 39.7 23.8

Josh Allen's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#1 Quarterback

380.2 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
2.7 385.1/608 4361.8 33 16 110 635 4.9

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJosh Allen's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

There’s no real mystery to Allen’s fantasy outlook. He’s led QBs in fantasy points per game since Buffalo acquired Stefon Diggs in 2020.

Diggs returns for 2023, while Allen’s overall supporting cast looks improved following the selection of Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid. Mix in Allen’s rushing upside, and he remains an elite QB1.

What We Learned Last Year
  • Allen finished as the QB1 in points per game (29.5).
  • He scored as a top-three fantasy QB in five weeks last season. He finished outside the top-12 QBs only twice.
  • Allen didn’t miss a game due to injury, although he played only 16 games due to the Bills-Bengals cancellation.
  • Allen played through a Week 9 partially torn ulnar collateral ligament (right elbow) and “associated tendon and muscle injuries,” per NFL Network. He received a plasma-rich injection and wore a brace to aid the injury.
  • On the year, among 24 QBs with 400+ dropbacks, Allen ranked third in Pro Football Focus passing grade, tied for fourth in yards per attempt, and finished 18th in adjusted completion rate.
  • From Week 10 on, Allen’s PFF passing grade, YPA, and adjusted completion rate reach declined.
  • Allen set a career-high with 63 scrambles.
    • He nearly set a career-high in rushing yards (762). He posted seven rushing scores and now has at least six in each NFL season.
  • Buffalo's O-line ranked 4th in pass block win rate (67%), behind only Kansas City, Chicago, and Cleveland.
  • Under new OC Ken Dorsey, Buffalo ranked 13th league-wide in pass rate; 8th in attempts per game.
  • Stefon Diggs played all 16 games. But Allen never got a breakout season from Gabe Davis, and this unit lacked pass-catching depth behind Diggs.
What to Expect in 2023
  • The Bills return key offensive pieces in OC Ken Dorsey, WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, TE Dawson Knox, and LT Dion Dawkins.
  • Buffalo lost WR Isaiah McKenzie but upgraded the unit overall by adding WR Deonte Harty and TE/big slot Dalton Kincaid.
  • Kincaid is the real prize here. At 6’4, 246 pounds, he projects as a pro-ready asset, especially in the red zone.
  • This O-line looks improved following the arrival of guards Connor McGovern and O'Cyrus Torrence.
  • Might we see fewer rush attempts from Allen?
    • Here’s HC Sean McDermott in March. "I don't think that's a healthy way to play quarterback in this league and it's undefeated that things are going to happen when you play that style. We have to get that adjusted and it's never going to go completely away, but it has to get where it's workable."
  • Allen enters year two with OC Ken Dorsey, his former QB coach. Continuity remains strong all-around from a Bills offense that needs tweaks over wholesale changes.

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Josh Allen, QB BUF

4:50pm EDT 9/17/23

Josh Allen sharp in win

Bills QB Josh Allen completed 31 of 37 passes for 274 yards and 3 TDs in a win over Las Vegas. Call it a predictable bounce back in a favorable matchup. The Raiders’ pass rush struggled to get home, and Allen made them pay both inside the pocket and out. His scores went to Dawson Knox, Khalil Shakir, and Gabe Davis. Allen remains a locked-in top-3 fantasy QB.

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Bills QB Josh Allen completed 29 passes on 41 attempts for 236 passing yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs in Monday’s OT loss vs. the Jets. He also ran for 36 yards and lost a fumble at a crucial stage of the fourth quarter, a play that aided in swinging the momentum toward New York. Allen had a generally solid game, but a trio of INTs into the hands of Jets S Jordan Whitehead sunk his fantasy prospects. The All-Pro signal-caller can add his name to the list of big-name players who had a disappointing opening game. Allen will have a chance at redemption in Week 2 vs. the Raiders.

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Bills RB coach Kelly Skipper gave his assessment of 2nd-year RB James Cook. “Big jump (from first to second year),” Skipper said. “I see it in the classroom. You can see he’s taking control of the playbook. If I ask a question, he’s the first one to answer, where before, he was just really learning. He got that experience, and you saw how much better he got toward the end of the year.” We’ll see how Buffalo breaks down first-team reps at training camp between Cook and Damien Harris. Overall, look for this backfield to see a small uptick in volume. Per beat writer Ryan O’Halloran, the expectation is that the Bills will reduce Josh Allen’s rushing load. (Allen handled nearly 30% of Buffalo’s carries in 2022.) Visit our fantasy football RB rankings to see backfield expectations.

View all James Cook Shark Bites »

Bills HC Sean McDermott admitted that the number of hits QB Josh Allen takes makes him nervous. "I don't think that's a healthy way to play QB in this league and it's undefeated that things are going to happen when you play that style, brand of football," McDermott said. "We have to get that adjusted and it's never going to go completely away, but it has to get where it's workable. ... He's one of the best in the league and I don't want to take his personality away from him ... but there needs to be an adjustment in that style of play." Allen, of course, has been one of the most effective running QBs since entering the league five years ago. He's averaged 5.7 yards per carry and leads his position with 38 rushing TDs over that span. Allen has averaged between 3.5 and 4.5 designed rushing attempts per game in all five of his NFL seasons, ranking among the top five QBs in total designed rushing attempts in all five. Perhaps Buffalo scales that number back a bit going forward. But we'd be surprised if Allen's rushing volume took a significant hit. It's simply too big a part of his game -- and too big a part of the Bills' offense.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Bills QB Josh Allen said Monday that he's not expected to have surgery on the UCL injury he suffered in his right elbow on November 6. He also told reporters that he didn't feel like he had his usual throwing mechanics until 2 weeks ago. Allen's numbers certainly suggest that the elbow was an issue. In his first 8 games, including the 1 in which he hurt the elbow late, he posted a 64.1% completion rate, 8.1 yards per attempt and 19 TDs vs. 8 INTs. Over his final 10 games, including the playoffs, he registered a 61.7% completion rate, 7.1 yards per attempt and 19 TDs vs. 9 INTs. We'll keep an eye on Allen's status throughout the offseason, but he should tentatively expected to be 100% for the 2023 campaign.

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Dynasty Overview View QB Dynasty Rankings »

Josh Allen, QB BUF
Dynasty MVP 352.4
Position Rank #1 QB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
1,088
1,772
3,400
Dynasty Write-up
Allen continued to perform as an elite QB in 2022. 2023 turns up his sixth pro season and the arrival of Round 1 TE Dalton Kincaid. The 27-year-old Allen is under contract through the 2028 season.
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