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Josh Allen - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Josh Allen
BUF

QB BUF

#3 Quarterback

449 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 7
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 237
40 Time: 4.75

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#3 Quarterback

449 Projected Points

ADP Comp/Att P Yds P TD INT Att R Yds Fum
Not Available 420/627 4890 33 13 440

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

404.1

DS Projection

449

Consensus

38 other sites
338.85

Med Ceiling

507.4

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

-Allen ranked as the QB2 in fantasy PPG last year (29.1). That followed finishes of QB22 (2018) and QB20 (2019).

-Allen set career highs across the board. Most notably, Allen posted a 69.2% completion rate — way up from his previous career high of 58.8%.

-Allen’s accuracy took a huge leap forward alongside new Bill Stefon Diggs. Pro Football Reference charted Allen’s on-target rate at 79.1% — 7th best among 30 QBs with 300+ attempts.

-His TD rate jumped from 4.3% to 6.5% — a top-10 mark league-wide.

-Buffalo’s pass rate jumped from 52.5% in 2019 to 59.2% last season. Expect a similar figure in 2021.

-Among QBs, Allen ranked 4th in rush attempts (102), 8th in rushing yards (421) and T-3rd in rushing TDs (8).

-The Bills return the same HC (Sean McDermott), OC (Brian Daboll) and QB coach (Ken Dorsey).

-Buffalo lost John Brown in free agency but added another veteran in Emmanuel Sanders. With Diggs, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis returning, this WR corps remains strong.

-While we’ll see competition, Buffalo returns the same key pieces along the O-line. They’ll look for improvement after Allen faced pressure on 37.1% of his dropbacks — 7th most among 32 QBs with 300+ dropbacks.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Allen was an incredible value in 2020 drafts. He delivered seven top-3 fantasy weeks during a no-doubt breakout season.

Consistent production on the ground only adds to his high-end value. Allen’s 8 rushing TDs from last year followed seasons with 8 and 9. The 25-year-old has played the role of a part-time goal line back with 19 career carries inside the 5 yard-line.

A Round 3/4 ADP is tough to pay for given the league’s historic QB depth. But with the same offensive environment surrounding Allen in year 4, another monster season is within reach.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

The forecast for today's Patriots-Bills game calls for a chance of rain and 20 mph sustained winds with gusts over 30. That certainly puts a damper on the passing games. New England figured to go run-heavy anyway, so the bigger impact is on Josh Allen and Co. We'd also avoid both kickers in this game.

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As of 12:30 pm ET on Sunday, the Bills-Titans game remains on for Tuesday night. There's still plenty of time for that to change, so you'll need to decide for yourself whether you want to risk leaving Bills and Titans players in your lineups. It'd be nice to at least have backup options available from Monday night's Chargers-Saints game. We've left our full projections in place for Bills and Titans players in the Week 5 Rankings.

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This week's Bills-Titans game has been moved to Tuesday at 6 pm ET, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. That's only if Tennessee has no more positive COVID tests, though. It's unclear what will happen to this game if the Titans have more positives, but we know that it won't be part of Week 5. The good news is that it sounds like we'll know for sure whether we'll have Bills and Titans players available for fantasy lineups this week within the next 24 hours.

View all Josh Allen Shark Bites »

Here's what Bills HC Sean McDermott said Tuesday about how he'll handle his team's meaningless Sunday finale against the Jets, according to SNY.tv: "We're going to play a majority of the guys. To go into detail will take some time, but the majority of guys will play, not all of them. Josh (Allen) will play. They're not all going to play the same amount in the game. We're going to be smart with that, but it's important that we get work in fundamentally and in terms of execution and we stay as sharp as can be." Translation: Expect most starters to play. Don't expect any key guys to make it past halftime. We'd plan on not using QB Josh Allen, RB Devin Singletary or the WRs, if you can help it.

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Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion) is active for today’s game against the Titans. He’s more of a QB2 vs. the #8 defense in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

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