Josh Allen - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need To Know:

• Allen posted a second consecutive overall QB1 finish in 2021 (28 FPPG).
• He ranked as a top-5 QB 8 times. He finished outside the top-15 only 4 times.
• Allen’s adjusted completion rate dropped from an insane 79.1% to a more-human 73.8%. But he delivered on 646 pass attempts — 4th most league-wide and 74 more than his previous career high.
• Allen posted a career-low 6 rushing scores, however, despite a personal-best 122 attempts.
• Allen played a full slate of games for the 3rd straight season.
• Buffalo enjoyed some good injury luck, as Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis combined to miss only 4 games.
• Buffalo returns 3 of those key pieces, with Beasley as the exception. Khalil Shakir arrived as a Round 5 pick, but he’s likely more of a year 2/3 contributor. Jamison Crowder arrived to help fill the slot void.
• Buffalo added some O-line competition over the offseason most notably in G Rodger Saffold. While past his prime, he’s adding a unit that won’t limit Allen’s production.
• Bills beat writer Jay Skurski has “concern” over the team’s O-line situation. “I hate to say it, but [Josh] Allen’s ability to be healthy and play 17 games might be at stake here,” Skurski admits.
• The biggest storyline here revolves around the departure of OC Brian Daboll. Former QB coach/pass game coordinator Ken Dorsey will take over.
• The continuity is nice, and we don’t expect much change from this unit.
• Adding pass-catching RB James Cook in the draft gives Buffalo another catch-and-run weapon.
• They ranked top-3 league-wide in 4 and 5-WR sets last year, and we fully expect another pass-happy approach.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line

Only 26, Allen’s just entering his prime in year 5 as the starter.

We have no concerns about this offense on the field; the key is simply smoothing out the transition from OC Brian Daboll to first-time play-caller Ken Dorsey. And we don’t foresee a rocky road there. (Allen, in fact, requested that Dorsey earn the promotion.)

Allen’s the superflex 1.01 and easily our top projected QB going into the season.