Terry McLaurin - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• McLaurin saw his yards per catch dip by 2.9 from his rookie season to 2020, but that rate rebounded some (by 0.8) last season.
• His yards per target fell for the 2nd straight year, thanks to McLaurin’s worst catch rate among his 3 seasons (59.2%, down from 64.9% and 62.4%). But his average target depth made a nice recovery. That number went from 14.0 in 2019 down to 9.7 in 2020, then back to 13.1 last year.
• Carson Wentz should help keep that area strong. He finished 3 of the past 5 seasons among the league’s top 10 in average depth of target, including 2 year among the top 5.
• Washington clearly believes Wentz to be an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke. But it’s worth noting that Heinicke edged Wentz by 1 percentage point in Pro Football Focus’ adjusted completion rate last year and matched him at 6.9 yards per pass attempt. His career completion rate of 64.6% also leads Wentz’s 62.6%.
• McLaurin has tallied the 9th most targets among WRs over the past 2 seasons, since HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner arrived. His target share landed almost exactly on 23.6% (for games he played) each of the past 2 years.
• Washington drafted WR Jahan Dotson 16th overall and gets WR Curtis Samuel back from a groin injury that cost him nearly all of his 1st season with the team. The Commanders also re-signed RB J.D. McKissic.
• TE Logan Thomas is working back from a Dec. 5 ACL tear.
• McLaurin is due for some positive TD regression. After scoring on 12.1% of his receptions as a rookie, he did so on just 4.6% in 2020 and 6.5% last year. In 2021, he tied for 18th among WRs in end-zone targets but just 30th in TD receptions.
• These QBs have started games for Washington since McLaurin arrived: Taylor Heinicke (15), Dwayne Haskins (13), Case Keenum (8), Alex Smith (6), Kyle Allen (4), Ryan Fitzpatrick (1), Colt McCoy (1) and Garrett Gilbert (1).

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

McLaurin’s QB play through 3 seasons has been so mediocre-to-poor that even this version of Carson Wentz might truly be an upgrade. McLaurin is at his best when able to work downfield, which is an area Wentz handles well. The wideout has fallen short of elite target share and doesn’t look likely to add to that area with added competition from Jahan Dotson and a healthy Curtis Samuel. But McLaurin is probably just a little good TD luck away from being a solid WR2.