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Terry McLaurin - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTerry McLaurin's Basic Stats

Terry McLaurin
ADP: 5.3
Bye: 14
Experience: 4 Yr(s)
Age: 28.0
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.35
Speed Score: 114.60
SPARQx (Rank): 126.20 (95%)
Burst Score (Rank): 126.30 (77%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.16 (59%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.19 (77%)

Terry McLaurin's Weekly Outlook

Week 3 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.7 61.5 0.3 8
Weekly Writeup
Through two games, McLaurin's been out-targeted by Jahan Dotson, 10-12. We expect McLaurin to see primary coverage from top Bills CB Tre'Davious White.

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 63.4 0.4 8.9

Terry McLaurin's 2023 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#27 Wide Receiver

133.3 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
5.3 71.2 981.1 5.6 2.5 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTerry McLaurin's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »
Bottom Line

McLaurin has tallied 120-134 targets, 77-87 catches, 1050-1,118 yards, and 4-5 TDs in each of the past three seasons.

Solid numbers on the surface. But finishing WR20, WR32, and WR25, he has ranked far from fantasy’s elite.

McLaurin’s 2023 fantasy value primarily comes down to the performance of QB Sam Howell. Howell’s profile says we should be lukewarm – at best – on his 2023 projection.

McLaurin remains a volume-based WR2.


What We Learned Last Year
  • McLaurin played all 17 games for the second straight season.
  • He set a career-high with 1,191 receiving yards.
  • However, his 21.7% target share last season was a career low. WR Jahan Dotson supplied new target competition after arriving as the 16th overall pick.
    • Dotson missed Week 5 through Week 9 (hamstring).
    • In those games, McLaurin’s target share jumped up slightly to 23.0%
  • Overall, McLaurin finished WR25 in PPR points per game. He ranked as a top-12 WR only three times.
  • The issues were clear.
    • A poor Washington offense supplied only 11 red-zone targets, 52nd in the league.
    • QBs Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz ranked 25th and 29th, respectively, in on-target percentage (per Pro Football Reference).
    • Washington QBs combined for a 62.1% completion rate, a 4.3% TD rate, 6.8 yards per attempt, and a QBR south of 45.0. Ugly.
  • McLaurin's underlying metrics at least gave no cause for concern.
    • His Pro Football Focus receiving grade, yards per catch, yards after catch per reception, and yards per route run all fell in line with or exceeded career averages.

What to Expect in 2023
  • Washington returns its No. 2 WR (Jahan Dotson), No. 3 WR (Curtis Samuel), and No. 1 TE (Logan Thomas).
  • There are only 58 vacated targets in this offense, making it tougher for McLaurin’s volume to spike in Year 5.
  • Washington moved on from QBs Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. They’re poised to enter Week 1 with second-year QB Sam Howell behind center.
  • Here’s McLaurin on his new QB (in OTAs). “He's very confident in his ability, and he's not afraid to give guys the opportunity to make plays. You can really tell he has a good grasp of playing football, especially for a young guy coming in with a pretty challenging offense.”
  • Howell started only one game in 2022 (Week 18 vs. Dallas). But it was encouraging to see McLaurin tally 3-74-1 on a 31.9% target share.
  • As for the offense McLaurin referenced: Washington hired OC Eric Bieniemy to replace Scott Turner. He’ll call plays.
    • He’s spent the past 10 years in Kansas City: five as the RBs coach, five as the OC.
    • He worked in a collaborative play-calling role with HC Andy Reid as the Chiefs offense ranked top 6 in points and yards in each of Bieniemy’s seasons as OC.
    • Washington, of course, doesn’t have anyone with QB Patrick Mahomes’ resume. But a league-average QB season is within Howell’s range of outcomes.

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Terry McLaurin, WR WAS

7:10pm EDT 9/10/23

Terry McLaurin quiet in Week 1 win

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (turf toe) landed just 2 catches on 6 targets for 31 receiving yards in Sunday’s win vs. the Cardinals. Teammate Curtis Samuel led the team in receiving with 54 yards and a perfect 5-for-5 on his targets. McLaurin has dealt with this toe injury dating back to the preseason and practiced in a limited fashion for much of this week. It’s no surprise he got out-targeted by WR Jahan Dotson (5 for 40 yards on 7 targets) in Week 1, though we expect McLaurin’s impact to increase as he becomes further removed from the ailment. An underrated takeaway to consider before their Week 2 matchup vs. the Broncos is that TE Logan Thomas led the Commanders with 8 targets in this game—something to remember for those in deeper leagues.

View all Terry McLaurin Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (toe) is not listed on the final Week 1 injury report. He practiced all week, including full practices on Thursday and Friday. So it looks like McLaurin will be ready to play his usual role vs. the Cardinals this weekend.

View all Terry McLaurin Shark Bites »

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (toe) was upgraded to full participation in Thursday's practice. He'll play vs. the Cardinals this weekend -- and will seemingly be at least close to 100%.

View all Terry McLaurin Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
Dynasty MVP 92.5
Position Rank #43 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
315
484
758
Dynasty Write-up
McLaurin’s 2022 production increased once QB Taylor Heinicke took over around mid-season. Of course, Heinicke -- now in Atlanta -- was never Washington’s long-term answer. We’ll see if they found one in QB Sam Howell -- but call us skeptical. McLaurin, 27, profiles as a multi-year WR2, regardless.
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