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Terry McLaurin - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsTerry McLaurin's Basic Stats

Terry McLaurin
ADP: N/A
Bye: 14
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 27.0
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 210
40 Time: 4.35
Speed Score: 114.60
SPARQx (Rank): 126.20 (95%)
Burst Score (Rank): 126.30 (77%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.16 (59%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 10.19 (77%)

Terry McLaurin's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.1 57.1 0.4 8.1
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
4.5 64.1 0.4 8.8

Terry McLaurin's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#18 Wide Receiver

152.3 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 83.9 1141.1 6.6 2.9 0.7

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsTerry McLaurin's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • McLaurin saw his yards per catch dip by 2.9 from his rookie season to 2020, but that rate rebounded some (by 0.8) last season.
  • His yards per target fell for the 2nd straight year, thanks to McLaurin’s worst catch rate among his 3 seasons (59.2%, down from 64.9% and 62.4%). But his average target depth made a nice recovery. That number went from 14.0 in 2019 down to 9.7 in 2020, then back to 13.1 last year.
  • Carson Wentz should help keep that area strong. He finished 3 of the past 5 seasons among the league’s top 10 in average depth of target, including 2 year among the top 5.
  • Washington clearly believes Wentz to be an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke. But it’s worth noting that Heinicke edged Wentz by 1 percentage point in Pro Football Focus’ adjusted completion rate last year and matched him at 6.9 yards per pass attempt. His career completion rate of 64.6% also leads Wentz’s 62.6%.
  • McLaurin has tallied the 9th most targets among WRs over the past 2 seasons, since HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner arrived. His target share landed almost exactly on 23.6% (for games he played) each of the past 2 years.
  • Washington drafted WR Jahan Dotson 16th overall and gets WR Curtis Samuel back from a groin injury that cost him nearly all of his 1st season with the team. The Commanders also re-signed RB J.D. McKissic.
  • TE Logan Thomas is working back from a Dec. 5 ACL tear.
  • McLaurin is due for some positive TD regression. After scoring on 12.1% of his receptions as a rookie, he did so on just 4.6% in 2020 and 6.5% last year. In 2021, he tied for 18th among WRs in end-zone targets but just 30th in TD receptions.
  • These QBs have started games for Washington since McLaurin arrived: Taylor Heinicke (15), Dwayne Haskins (13), Case Keenum (8), Alex Smith (6), Kyle Allen (4), Ryan Fitzpatrick (1), Colt McCoy (1) and Garrett Gilbert (1).


Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

McLaurin’s QB play through 3 seasons has been so mediocre-to-poor that even this version of Carson Wentz might truly be an upgrade. McLaurin is at his best when able to work downfield, which is an area Wentz handles well. The wideout has fallen short of elite target share and doesn’t look likely to add to that area with added competition from Jahan Dotson and a healthy Curtis Samuel. But McLaurin is probably just a little good TD luck away from being a solid WR2.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Curtis Samuel, WR WAS

8:15pm EDT 9/26/22

Samuel leads targets once again

WR Curtis Samuel led the Commanders in targets for the 3rd straight game in Sunday's loss to the Eagles. His 10 stood 1 ahead of WR Terry McLaurin and RB J.D. McKissic and 2 ahead of WR Jahan Dotson. TE Logan Thomas trailed in 5th place with 3 looks. Samuel caught a team-high 7 balls but collected a mere 48 yards (6.9 per catch). McLaurin turned his 6 receptions into 102 yards, while Dotson managed just 2 catches for 10 yards amid 8 targets. Through 3 weeks, QB Carson Wentz ranks 4th in the league in pass attempts, which has helped the volume of every pass-catcher.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

For the 2nd straight game, WR Curtis Samuel led all Commanders in targets Sunday. He drew 9 in the 36-27 loss to Detroit, catching 7 for 78 yards and a TD. (Samuel added a carry for 21 yards.) WR Terry McLaurin checked in 2nd, catching 4 of his 8 targets for 75 yards. J.D. McKissic rebounded from a quiet Week 1 to rank 3rd with 7 targets, catching all of them for 54 yards. WR Jahan Dotson and TE Logan Thomas garnered 5 looks apiece and each caught a TD.

View all Curtis Samuel Shark Bites »

The Commanders plan to play QB Carson Wentz and other starters for about 15-20 snaps in the preseason opener against the Panthers, according to The Washington Post. We'd bet on that increasing for the 2nd exhibition. We'll be interested to see how Wentz fares with his new WRs, as well as rookie RB Brian Robinson's role and performance.

View all Carson Wentz Shark Bites »

No more holdout worries for WR Terry McLaurin. He and the Commanders agreed to a 3-year, $70 million contract extension on Tuesday. That tacks on to the final year of his rookie deal to keep McLaurin signed through the 2025 season. He'll be 30 at that point. The 2019 3rd-rounder has opened his career with WR30, WR20 and WR36 finishes in PPR points per game -- despite often dealing with poor QB play. It's arguable whether Carson Wentz will stabilize that situation. McLaurin sits in mid-range WR2 territory in our 2022 rankings.

View all Terry McLaurin Shark Bites »

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that Commanders WR Terry McLaurin plans to miss this week's mandatory minicamp. The 4th-year wideout is looking for a new contract, as he heads into the final year of his rookie deal. Beyond the fine that will come with holding out, McLaurin will be missing practice time with new QB Carson Wentz. His absence will also afford extra reps for WRs such as rookie Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel and Cam Sims. We'll see how this situation develops. For now, we're not adjusting our outlook for McLaurin -- who just might be getting the best QB of his career to date.

View all Terry McLaurin Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
Dynasty MVP 127.9
Position Rank #33 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
458
729
851
Dynasty Write-up
McLaurin has tallied the 12th most targets all-time over his 1st 3 seasons and turned that into the 14th most receiving yards in that span. Carson Wentz should be at least a moderate upgrade over Case Keenum/Dwayne Haskins/Kyle Allen/Alex Smith/Taylor Heinicke. We'll see how much more upside that will unlock. Heading into his age-27 season, McLaurin is 2 years older than classmate D.K. Metcalf, a year older than fellow classmates A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown, and 2 years older than D.J. Moore (who has been in the NFL a season longer).

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