Bottom Line

McLaurin has tallied 120-134 targets, 77-87 catches, 1050-1,118 yards, and 4-5 TDs in each of the past three seasons.

Solid numbers on the surface. But finishing WR20, WR32, and WR25, he has ranked far from fantasy’s elite.

McLaurin’s 2023 fantasy value primarily comes down to the performance of QB Sam Howell. Howell’s profile says we should be lukewarm – at best – on his 2023 projection.

McLaurin remains a volume-based WR2.

What We Learned Last Year

• McLaurin played all 17 games for the second straight season.
• He set a career-high with 1,191 receiving yards.
• However, his 21.7% target share last season was a career low. WR Jahan Dotson supplied new target competition after arriving as the 16th overall pick.
  • Dotson missed Week 5 through Week 9 (hamstring).
  • In those games, McLaurin’s target share jumped up slightly to 23.0%
• Overall, McLaurin finished WR25 in PPR points per game. He ranked as a top-12 WR only three times.
• The issues were clear.
  • A poor Washington offense supplied only 11 red-zone targets, 52nd in the league.
  • QBs Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz ranked 25th and 29th, respectively, in on-target percentage (per Pro Football Reference).
  • Washington QBs combined for a 62.1% completion rate, a 4.3% TD rate, 6.8 yards per attempt, and a QBR south of 45.0. Ugly.
• McLaurin's underlying metrics at least gave no cause for concern.
  • His Pro Football Focus receiving grade, yards per catch, yards after catch per reception, and yards per route run all fell in line with or exceeded career averages.

What to Expect in 2023

• Washington returns its No. 2 WR (Jahan Dotson), No. 3 WR (Curtis Samuel), and No. 1 TE (Logan Thomas).
• There are only 58 vacated targets in this offense, making it tougher for McLaurin’s volume to spike in Year 5.
• Washington moved on from QBs Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz. They’re poised to enter Week 1 with second-year QB Sam Howell behind center.
• Here’s McLaurin on his new QB (in OTAs). “He's very confident in his ability, and he's not afraid to give guys the opportunity to make plays. You can really tell he has a good grasp of playing football, especially for a young guy coming in with a pretty challenging offense.”
• Howell started only one game in 2022 (Week 18 vs. Dallas). But it was encouraging to see McLaurin tally 3-74-1 on a 31.9% target share.
• As for the offense McLaurin referenced: Washington hired OC Eric Bieniemy to replace Scott Turner. He’ll call plays.
  • He’s spent the past 10 years in Kansas City: five as the RBs coach, five as the OC.
  • He worked in a collaborative play-calling role with HC Andy Reid as the Chiefs offense ranked top 6 in points and yards in each of Bieniemy’s seasons as OC.
  • Washington, of course, doesn’t have anyone with QB Patrick Mahomes’ resume. But a league-average QB season is within Howell’s range of outcomes.