What You Need to Know:

• McLaurin followed a WR29 finish in PPR points per game as a rookie by rising to WR20 in that category as a sophomore. But that doesn’t mean the results were all positive.
• He went from 7th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade in 2019 to just 32nd last season (albeit, among 222 graded wideouts).
• Football Outsiders rated McLaurin 72nd in DYAR and 74th in DVOA among 87 qualifying WRs. Compare that with his rankings of 13th and 12th, respectively, in 2019.
• McLaurin saw a significant dip in his deep work in Year 2.
  • According to PFF, his average depth of target dipped from 14.6 to 9.9.
  • After seeing 29.7% of his 2019 targets in the deep range (20+ yards downfield), McLaurin got just 14.8% of last season’s targets in that range.
  • Conversely, he went from 2.2% of 2019 targets coming behind the line of scrimmage to 11.1% in 2020. And short-range targets (0-9 yards) climbed from 38.5% of his total to 50.4%.
• Overall, McLaurin’s yards per route run fell from 2.05 in his rookie campaign to 1.84 last season. He ranked 14th in that category in 2019 among 112 wideouts who saw 30+ targets. McLaurin fell to 34th among 115 wideouts last year.
• The new coaching staff ran him from the slot more: 31.5% of snaps vs. 23.5% in 2019.
• McLaurin also increased his yards after catch per reception and slashed his drop rate, from 10.8% to 3.1%.
• Washington got at least a slight upgrade -- and potentially more than that -- at QB by signing Ryan Fitzpatrick to a 1-year deal. He has consistently proved more willing than Alex Smith to throw downfield and far more proficient than Dwayne Haskins or Kyle Allen.
• Washington also signed WR Curtis Samuel in free agency and drafted WR Dyami Brown in Round 3, upgrading the talent around McLaurin.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s room for McLaurin to improve on his own performance vs. 2020. But the change at QB and upgraded offensive talent should rebound his downfield production to at least some degree. At his best, Ryan Fitzpatrick can be a successful downfield passer. At worst, he should be an upgrade over Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Alen and the 2020 version of Alex Smith. It certainly seems fair to expect another WR2-level season from McLaurin.

The problem: He’s going 11th among wideouts in FFPC best-ball drafting right now. You’ll have to pay up if you want him. McLaurin is basically tied in ADP with Allen Robinson, whom we have projected for 25 more PPR points.