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Trey Sermon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Trey Sermon
SF

RB SF

#25 Running Back

150 Projected Points

ADP: Not Available
Bye: 6
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: 22
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.61

Weekly Outlook

Week 6 Projections

This player does not have a weekly prediction

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
31 0.3 1.1 9 0 5.8
Week 4
With Eli Mitchell (shoulder) missing another game and little competition for touches, Sermon took aim at a Seattle run defense that is far less stout than they’ve been in the past. Although he didn’t break off long runs, he was consistently able to fight through initial contact to gain positive yardage on most of his rushing attempts. However, with no targets or TDs, his solid rushing totals resulted in a middling fantasy performance.

Any RB who lines up in the 49ers backfield has value, but Sermon hasn’t taken full advantage of his opportunities in his 2 weeks as the lead RB. That, of course, was after being a healthy scratch in Week 1. Certainly, he should retain a role in this decimated backfield, but if Eli Mitchell returns from a shoulder injury this week, it’s possible that Sermon returns to being on the small side of a timeshare. And if Jeff Wilson returns in November, that could impact Sermon’s long-term role.
Week 3
Thanks to myriad injuries in the San Francisco backfield, Sermon got his 1st career start on Sunday night against Green Bay. However, Sermon didn’t do much to grab hold of the lead-back duties in this one.

He only averaged 3.1 yards per carry on his 10 attempts. His bright spot for the night was a 1-yard TD plunge in the 4th quarter, as the 49ers were making a comeback. That didn’t produce a great game script for the rookie RB. We will see how his usage looks next week, if Elijah Mitchell remains out. Sermon added 2 catches (on 3 targets) for 3 yards to his 10-31-1 rushing line.

We have Sermon ranked at RB37 this week against the Seahawks. We have San Francisco RBs with a top 5 easiest strength of schedule for the rest of season so there could be great opportunity for Sermon if he is able to grab a significant share of the touches. Unfortunately, we have no idea what this backfield will look like the rest of the season with Elijah Mitchell returning soon and Jeff Wilson, Jr. expected to return around midseason.

Currently, we have Sermon ranked at RB47 for the rest of the season.
Week 2
The positive: Sermon was at least active for his 2nd NFL game.

The negative: He played 1 snap, fumbled and sustained a concussion. Elijah Mitchell, meanwhile, operated as the clear lead back. Sermon’s lone touch didn’t come until 5:41 remained in the 4th quarter, after Mitchell and JaMychal Hasty had left with injuries. (Mitchell returned.)

Sermon is droppable in many fantasy formats at this point, though Hasty’s high-ankle sprain gives Sermon some “hold” upside if you don’t have any truly attractive options to drop him for.

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Sermon opened his college career at Oklahoma, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and scoring 20 total TDs over his 1st 2 seasons.
  • But he fell out of favor with the coaching staff there and transferred to Ohio State for his final season.
  • Sermon spent most of 2020 splitting touches with Master Teague but closed out the year with a 29-331-2 rushing line in the Big Ten championship game win over Northwestern and then a 31-193-1 outing in the semifinal win over Clemson.
  • He averaged a big 7.5 yards per carry for the season and posted strong marks in yards after contact and missed tackles forced. In fact, Sermon beat both Najee Harris and Travis Etienne in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating last year.
  • He has limited pass-catching experience, totaling just 48 grabs over 4 college seasons.
  • Sermon checked into his Pro Day at 6’0 and 215 pounds. He ran just a 4.57-second 40-yard dash but excelled in the jumping and agility drills. He earned a 90th percentile Relative Athletic Score.
  • The 49ers traded up to select Sermon with the 88th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft.
  • The scheme Sermon ran in at Ohio State last year is similar to the scheme HC Kyle Shanahan runs in San Francisco.
  • The 49ers’ running game has been solid under Shanahan, finishing top 16 in yards and yards per attempt each of the past 3 years. They’ve also ranked top 10 in rushing TDs in 3 of Shanahan’s 4 seasons.
  • The running game could be even more efficient this year if and when rookie QB Trey Lance takes over. Lance will be a big-time threat on the ground -- and we know rushing QBs tend to make their RBs more efficient.
  • Sermon joins a crowded backfield alongside Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Wayne Gallman and fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell. Wilson, though, will start the season on the PUP list after May surgery to repair a torn meniscus.
  • Shanahan has deployed backfield committees over the past 3 years, with no 49er RB topping 153 carries in a single season.
  • But he hasn’t been opposed to riding a true lead back in the past. RB Carlos Hyde carried 240 times and finished RB9 in half-PPR points in Shanahan’s 1st season in San Francisco. Shanahan produced 4 other top-9 half-PPR RBs over his first 9 seasons as OC/HC in Houston, Washington, Cleveland and Atlanta.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s some sorting out that needs to be done in San Francisco’s backfield this summer. And it’s possible that this is a 2-, 3- or even 4-man committee throughout the season.

But it’s also possible that Sermon emerges as the best of the bunch. And we’ve seen HC Kyle Shanahan deploy clear lead backs in the past. There’s intriguing upside here -- especially once rookie QB Trey Lance takes over.

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

49ers RB Trey Sermon will "lead the way" and get the "bulk of carries" vs. the Packers tonight, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. We've heard the same from multiple 49ers beat writers. Sermon isn't the safest Week 3 fantasy play -- but he has loads of upside in a plus matchup.

View all Trey Sermon Shark Bites »

49ers RB Trey Sermon (concussion) has been medically cleared and isn't listed on the final injury report. With RB JaMycal Hasty (ankle) out and RB Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) doubtful, it's currently Sermon, Trenton Cannon and Jacques Patrick at RB on San Francisco's active roster. RBs Kerryon Johnson and Chris Thompson are eligible to be activated from the practice squad. HC Kyle Shanahan wouldn't say Friday afternoon who will get the start vs. Green Bay, but multiple 49ers beat writers expect it to be Sermon. We'll continue to look for clues on how the touches will be divvied.

View all Trey Sermon Shark Bites »

49ers RB Trey Sermon (concussion) remained limited in Thursday's practice. He still has multiple stages of the protocol to clear if he's to play vs. the Packers on Sunday night. We'll get another update on his progress tomorrow.

View all Trey Sermon Shark Bites »

49ers RB Trey Sermon (concussion) got in a limited practice on Wednesday. It means that he's made some progress through the league's protocol. If Sermon can get cleared in time for Sunday night's game vs. the Packers, the 49ers might be forced to give him a significant role.

View all Trey Sermon Shark Bites »

49ers HC Kyle Shanahan confirmed on Monday that RB Trey Sermon sustained a concussion in the win over the Eagles. It happened on Sermon's 1st carry of the game, which didn't come until the 4th quarter. We'll see when the rookie is cleared, but he's a ways away from fantasy relevance right now.

View all Trey Sermon Shark Bites »

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