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Trey Sermon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

Trey Sermon
SF

RB SF

#27 Running Back

150 Projected Points

ADP: 9.3
Bye: 6
Experience: 0 Yr(s)
Age: N/A
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 215
40 Time: Not Available

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#27 Running Back

150 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
9.3 185 848 7 1 1 21 175 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

High Floor

90

DS Projection

150

Consensus

38 other sites
0

High Ceiling

232.5

Ceiling Likelihood

High
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Sermon opened his college career at Oklahoma, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and scoring 20 total TDs over his 1st 2 seasons.
  • But he fell out of favor with the coaching staff there and transferred to Ohio State for his final season.
  • Sermon spent most of 2020 splitting touches with Master Teague but closed out the year with a 29-331-2 rushing line in the Big Ten championship game win over Northwestern and then a 31-193-1 outing in the semifinal win over Clemson.
  • He averaged a big 7.5 yards per carry for the season and posted strong marks in yards after contact and missed tackles forced. In fact, Sermon beat both Najee Harris and Travis Etienne in Pro Football Focus’ Elusive Rating last year.
  • He has limited pass-catching experience, totaling just 48 grabs over 4 college seasons.
  • Sermon checked into his Pro Day at 6’0 and 215 pounds. He ran just a 4.57-second 40-yard dash but excelled in the jumping and agility drills. He earned a 90th percentile Relative Athletic Score.
  • The 49ers traded up to select Sermon with the 88th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft.
  • The scheme Sermon ran in at Ohio State last year is similar to the scheme HC Kyle Shanahan runs in San Francisco.
  • The 49ers’ running game has been solid under Shanahan, finishing top 16 in yards and yards per attempt each of the past 3 years. They’ve also ranked top 10 in rushing TDs in 3 of Shanahan’s 4 seasons.
  • The running game could be even more efficient this year if and when rookie QB Trey Lance takes over. Lance will be a big-time threat on the ground -- and we know rushing QBs tend to make their RBs more efficient.
  • Sermon joins a crowded backfield alongside Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, Wayne Gallman and fellow rookie Elijah Mitchell. Wilson, though, will start the season on the PUP list after May surgery to repair a torn meniscus.
  • Shanahan has deployed backfield committees over the past 3 years, with no 49er RB topping 153 carries in a single season.
  • But he hasn’t been opposed to riding a true lead back in the past. RB Carlos Hyde carried 240 times and finished RB9 in half-PPR points in Shanahan’s 1st season in San Francisco. Shanahan produced 4 other top-9 half-PPR RBs over his first 9 seasons as OC/HC in Houston, Washington, Cleveland and Atlanta.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

There’s some sorting out that needs to be done in San Francisco’s backfield this summer. And it’s possible that this is a 2-, 3- or even 4-man committee throughout the season.

But it’s also possible that Sermon emerges as the best of the bunch. And we’ve seen HC Kyle Shanahan deploy clear lead backs in the past. There’s intriguing upside here -- especially once rookie QB Trey Lance takes over.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

49ers RB Trey Sermon has "made a strong first impression, particularly as a pass-catcher out of the backfield," according to ESPN's Nick Wagoner. Sermon soaked up 1st-team reps in minicamp with RBs Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert sidelined with knee issues. The pass-catching comment is particularly noteworthy since Sermon arrives to the NFL with a modest 48 receptions across 4 college seasons. We'll be keeping a close eye on this 49ers backfield in training camp and preseason. Sermon has been leaving the board in the 6th round of recent FFPC best-ball drafts.

View all Trey Sermon Shark Bites »

The 49ers traded up to select Ohio State RB Trey Sermon with the 88th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. Sermon opened his college career solidly at Oklahoma, averaging 5.9 yards per rush and scoring 20 total TDs over his 1st 2 seasons. But he fell out of favor with the coaching staff there before transferring to Ohio State for his final season. Sermon spent most of 2020 splitting touches with Master Teague but closed out the year with a 29-331-2 rushing line in the Big Ten championship game win over Northwestern and then a 31-193-1 outing in the semifinal win over Clemson. Sermon brings enough size (6’0, 215), tested well athletically and put a nice blend of running skills on his college tape. There’s 3-down upside to his game, though he’s more likely headed for some level of backfield share in San Francisco alongside Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. It’s a strong running game under HC Kyle Shanahan, though, so this is a nice landing spot.

View all Trey Sermon Shark Bites »

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