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Trey Sermon the 'clear' No. 2 for Colts?

By Matt Schauf | Updated on Mon, 03 Jun 2024, 10:16 AM EDT
Trey Sermon Headshot's Jake Arthur says "it was quite clear that Trey Sermon is the next man up at running back" coming out of recent Colts OTAs. That followed voluntary sessions RB Jonathan Taylor missed for personal reasons. Arthur adds that RB Evan Hull "appeared to get the initial looks" as passing-down back ahead of RB Tyler Goodson.

What They're Saying

Colts GM Chris Ballard to Colts Wire on his backfield in May: “We got some young guys that came in, and Trey (Sermon) did a really good job when he came in and played for us last year. So we got some guys on the roster that we like. We get (Evan) Hull back. Hull’s healthy, we get him back, so we get to see what he can do and he showed us some good signs last year.”

2024 Fantasy Football Impact

No Colts RB is likely to make much fantasy impact as long as Jonathan Taylor remains healthy. But the backup competition is interesting in case Taylor goes down.

Zack Moss showed us last season how much value that No. 2 spot can hold, finishing No. 28 in PPR points per game among RBs.

Even if Sermon holds down this year's No. 2 job, though, we wouldn't bet on him earning as much receiving work as Moss got. Sermon has just 6 receptions through three pro seasons spread among three teams. He also caught just 48 total passes across four college seasons.

Sermon, of course, arrived as a third-round pick with the 49ers but got immediately passed by sixth-round 2021 classmate Elijah Mitchell.

Sermon would be interesting if pressed into starting duty for the Colts, but he falls well short of being exciting.

Dynasty Impact

Sermon's dynasty outlook is certainly in better shape now than it was a year ago. If he makes the Colts' regular-season roster, it would mark the first time he has opened consecutive seasons with the same team.

Of course, that doesn't mean a huge value boost for a guy with just 78 carries and 10 targets through three NFL seasons.

Other Winners & Losers

Evan Hull has the best chance of unseating Sermon for the No. 2 job. Hull missed nearly all of his rookie season with a meniscus injury. But the fact that he's back practicing says that won't be an issue for 2024.

Indy drafted Hull in Round 5 last year after a Northwestern career that closed with a couple of workhorse-level seasons.

Hull compiled 417 carries and 88 receptions over those two campaigns and averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 9.1 per catch for his college career. He then delivered an 80th-percentile speed score and strong 9.32 Relative Athletic Score in pre-draft testing.

Hull remains worth stashing in dynasty.

Rankings Movement

We opened with Hull well ahead of Sermon in our RB rankings. Hull remains the more interesting fantasy option for both the short and long term. But Sermon belongs closer to his second-year teammate.

Projected ADP Movement

Sermon has gone undrafted in most best ball ADP so far this year. That's obviously too low for a guy leading the RB2 competition. Hull, meanwhile, has been a regular in the final rounds. We'll see whether this report is enough to alter those trends.

Matt Schauf Author Image
Matt Schauf, Editor
Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.
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