Don’t Trust The Box Score: Can We Salvage Any Hope for Marvin Harrison Jr.?
The Box Score Lies. The Film Doesn't.
Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use advanced analytics and film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Every week, I’ll bring my 22 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than their stats indicate.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Harrison appeared to be a very safe prospect in 2024. A top recruit and son of an NFL Hall of Famer who produced two straight 1,200-yard seasons at Ohio State.
But, he has been a disappointment for fantasy managers, finishing as WR46 and WR42 in PPR points per game his first two seasons
His third year has started even worse for Harrison. He’s seen just 4 targets with only 1 catch for 33 yards across two games.
This lack of production suggests he’s becoming a bust, but the film tells a more complex story.
This was Harrison’s lone target in the game and the only pass on which he was the undisputed first read.
Harrison handled this well. The CB played “off” coverage, so Harrison did a shallow comeback off motion and worked back to the QB. He gives Brissett the chance for an easy completion, and that would have allowed Harrison to break the open-field tackle to pick up additional yardage.
Brissett threw the ball into the dirt, so there was no chance at a catch.
Harrison had a positive rep, but it lacked ideal urgency. When he turns back to the QB, he stops and stands upright, almost as if he is giving up on the play. When he sees Brissett working to the right, his urgency returns and he starts working back.
That lack of urgency was a theme throughout the game for Harrison.
Harrison runs an out route against a Cover-2 CB blitz. This should be the perfect play to target Harrison behind the blitzing CB. That sets him up to be open.
But Brissett and Harrison both do not appear interested in making this connection. Brissett stares down the middle of the field at Kendrick Bourne and Michael Wilson. Harrison does not even turn to look for the ball after fitting between two of the defenders in zone coverage.
Instead, Harrison runs his given route at the given depth, meaning he was never getting the ball on this play.
Harrison runs his route with a stiffness that doesn’t work for a starting NFL WR (and more stiffness than he ever had in college). Running looks labored, with Harrison oscillating between upright and head down trying to pick up his speed.
The stiff route running continued throughout the game.
On this play against off coverage, Harrison’s streak route shows how his stiffness gets him into trouble.
Harrison takes too long to get up to full speed. That allows the defender to turn and run with Harrison cleanly while still watching Brissett’s eyes.
Harrison can’t get separation or enough outside leverage to be a viable target. It didn’t matter anyway, he was never an option on this play. Brissett again just tossed it to McBride on his first read.
But Harrison should at least be an option in the end zone as a 6’3, 220-pound contested catcher. Right?
Unfortunately, the answer is no. Harrison’s routes in the end zone were never a first read and he seemed to be making half-hearted attempts at evading defenders.
Harrison runs an out on this play and gives that half-hearted attempt to shake the defender with a few stutter steps. The DB wasn’t fooled and kept outside leverage that Harrison never separated from.
Again, he wasn’t even an option for Brissett, who opted for McBride on the other side running a similar route.
What’s the Problem?
Last season, I wrote about Harrison still looking like a star on film despite his poor box score. I watched a completely different WR this week, less than a year later.
Harrison plays stiffer and gives very little effort. The offense has looked to him as a first read much less with Brissett seemingly outright ignoring Harrison. Perhaps it’s a lack of reading the defense correctly pre-snap (like on the CB blitz play), but Harrison didn’t even seem to give full effort when he was the first read.
The film echoed a quote that new HC Mike LaFleur told Charles Robinson when asked what Harrison had to do to hit his ceiling:
“Not just Marvin, but what you talk to all these guys about in this league is that every play is probably going to be the hardest play you’ve ever had. It is hard to win in this league. And it’s hard to win 1-on-1 matchups in this league. Just instilling that mindset in all these guys that, dude, it’s going to be hard. It’s going to be contested. Are we going to make the play? Someone is going to make the play. It’s either you or that guy [across from you].”
I don’t have faith that Harrison will suddenly try harder, nor that he will work on loosening his hips and route running to gain more separation. That doesn’t mean he can’t have the occasional strong fantasy performance. But Harrison doesn’t look like he has a chance to approach his expected ceiling in Arizona.
Jonah Coleman, RB, Denver Broncos
The Broncos selected Coleman early in the fourth round (Pick 108) of the draft this year, just a year after taking RJ Harvey in the second. Coleman started the season behind Harvey and Dobbins, going without an offensive touch in Week 1.
But Harvey missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury and Dobbins injured a hamstring during the game.
That led to Coleman getting 10 carries and 3 catches, and his excellent film showed an RB who deserves to keep a major role even when Harvey and Dobbins return.
Coleman’s lone TD of Week 2 wasn’t special but showcases his ability to follow his blocking with burst and power.
The Broncos O-line cleared a nice lane on this 3-yard TD run. Coleman keeps his body moving forward with a low center of gravity to fend off any contact. He lowers his head and rams into the end zone.
This is a TD most NFL RBs would convert, but it does show Coleman's explosiveness between the tackles. And his film on whole shows a versatile RB who should get more TD opportunities.
Coleman also showed outside rushing ability throughout the game. This outside zone run was sealed well by the Broncos line, but Coleman’s acceleration and angle created a big play.
He started going parallel to the line, then accelerated outside while cutting up the field. Coleman takes a perfectly balanced angle: not too close to the OT to invite contact while also giving himself space away from the sideline.
That allowed Coleman to pick up near-maximum yardage before contact.
He even slides down in bounds to keep the clock moving with a lead on the final drive.
Coleman’s vision also looked improved from his prospect report.
He takes another outside zone run, but the path gets swallowed up by the Jaguars defense. Coleman doesn’t panic but instead sees a cutback lane on the right side of the line.
He sharply cuts back to the middle of the field, turning a potential rushing loss into a positive 6-yard gain.
I had major concerns about Harvey’s film as a rookie last year. Coleman’s offensive debut looked much stronger than any game I evaluated for Harvey.
I could see Coleman passing Harvey at some point this season, which makes him worth adding if he’s still available in your league. The payoff could be RB2 upside.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Ferguson’s season so far has mirrored the Cowboys offense. After catching his 2 targets for 6 yards in the Week 1 loss to the Giants, he turned around in Week 2 with 4 catches on 4 targets for 43 yards and 2 TDs. That was good for TE4 on the week.
Going against a poor Commanders defense helped. The film doesn’t inspire confidence that Ferguson will continue scoring like this.
Ferguson’s first TD benefited from the Commanders defense poorly running a Cover 2. The LBs played too shallow, allowing Ferguson to get behind them.
Dak Prescott identified the defense pre-snap, causing him to look Ferguson’s direction with his first read. That allowed for an easy TD completion behind the MLB staring at Prescott.
It was a well-executed play but doesn’t showcase Ferguson doing anything special.
Ferguson goes in motion and then comes back on a leak play to the flat. He blocks for a few beats before peeling off to make the catch
He does get a bit of initial separation, then turns upfield to pick up additional yardage. OLB Javontae Jean-Baptiste cuts Ferguson off a few yards in with Ferguson unable to outrun him or the other LBs.
Ferguson takes the 7 yards that were there but fails to pick up anything beyond that.
This type of play is typical of Ferguson. He takes what is given but lacks the dynamic ability to create extra yardage after the catch.
Ferguson has struggled with his blocking so far this season.
On this play, he tries another delayed-release route but falls down getting off the block into his route.
Ferguson has been caught off-balance blocking a few times so far this season, especially in Week 1. That has started costing him snaps to TEs Brevyn Spann-Ford and Luke Schoonmaker.
Ferguson played just four of the team's 11 snaps in "12" personnel (one RB, two TEs) against the Commanders. Ferguson also dipped to 53.1% of early-down, single-TE snaps, compared with 68% in such situations in 2025 and 62.9% in Week 1.
