Top 7 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 7 Usage

What Week 7 Usage Really Told Us

Box scores lie. Usage tells the truth.

We dug into the playing time, routes, carries, and targets behind the fantasy points to identify the biggest buy-low opportunities, sell-high candidates, and rankings movers.

Here are the seven biggest fantasy takeaways from Week 7 usage.

1. Game Script Explains the Rams’ Backfield Roller Coaster

I don’t wanna say I’ve solved the Rams backfield … but I think I’ve solved the Rams backfield.

I wrote about Kyren Williams’ workhorse usage after Week 4, when he’d out-touched Blake Corum 47 to 14 over the previous two games. Williams then out-touched Corum 22-8 in Week 5.

But the gap has tightened significantly over the last two weeks: 31 touches for Williams to 29 for Corum.

What changed? Game script.

The Rams trailed for 63% of their offensive snaps between Weeks 3-5. They’ve trailed for just 31% over the last 2 games, including 0% this past week, when Corum matched Williams with 18 touches.

Game script has been the driver of touch distribution in the Rams’ backfield this season. Williams has dominated opportunities when trailing, with a 75.5% share of the backfield’s expected fantasy points, which would rank ninth among RBs this season. Corum’s 21.0% would rank 73rd.

It’s been much closer to an even split when the Rams are tied or leading. Williams’ 59.4% in those situations would rank just 26th among RBs; Corum’s 40.6% would rank 43rd.

In total, the Rams have trailed on 48.7% of their snaps so far this season. That’s the 13th-highest mark in the league.

Their next three games look particularly good for positive game script. The Rams get the Chargers, Commanders, and Cardinals, who have combined for three wins. Then comes a Week 11 bye before a much tougher slate down the stretch:

• vs. Packers
• vs. Chiefs
• at 49ers
• vs. Cowboys
• at Seahawks
• at Buccaneers

2. That Was Quick: Jonah Coleman Takes Backfield Lead

We’ve been pimping Jonah Coleman as a fantasy stash for a few weeks now, in anticipation of his Week 7 return from a high-ankle sprain. That return was even more bullish than we expected.

The rookie immediately led Denver’s backfield in snaps and carries and tied RJ Harvey for the lead in routes and targets.

It’s worth noting that 4 of Coleman’s 9 carries came with Denver nursing a multi-score lead in the fourth quarter. Coleman and J.K. Dobbins both carried five times over the first three quarters.

It’s too early to say the rookie has definitively taken over this backfield, but it sure seems to be trending that way. Coleman is leading Dobbins and Harvey in virtually every meaningful rushing metric, including:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Success rate
• Explosive run rate

3. Is KC Concepcion’s Breakout For Real?

I wrote about KC Concepcion’s full-time role after Week 3. That role has held over the four games since, and the big production came in Week 7.

Let’s pump the brakes on Concepcion as a breakout player, though. 

He’s leading but not dominating Cleveland’s passing game, ranking 25th among WRs in target share since Week 3. 

And he’s still getting relatively low-value targets. His 7.6-yard average target depth over the last five games ranks 95th among 110 qualifying WRs. (He’s at 6.7 for the season.) Despite the low aDOT, his 76% catchable target rate ranks just 67th since Week 3.

QB Deshaun Watson has played better than expected so far, but this still isn’t a good situation for WR production. Cleveland ranks 23rd in pass attempts per game and 24th in pass yards per game.

4. Chase Brown Keeps the Work, Wastes the Opportunity

Good news: Chase Brown was back in his typical role against the Ravens after ceding more work to Samaje Perine in the previous game. Brown’s 75.5% snap rate and 58.8% route rate were in line with his marks from weeks 1 through 5.

Perine got the backfield’s only carry inside the 5-yard line, punching in a 1-yard TD in the fourth quarter. But Brown played two of three snaps inside the 5 and five of six snaps inside the 10, so it doesn’t seem like he’s lost the goal-line role.

The bad news is that Brown struggled on the ground again, mustering just 3.5 yards per carry. He has now failed to top 3.5 yards per carry in four of six games and is averaging 3.5 yards per carry on the season. That ranks 32nd among 39 RBs with 50+ attempts. Brown also ranks in the bottom half of that group in rush yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced per attempt.

Brown ranks 13th among RBs in expected PPR points per game but just 20th in actual points. That makes him the biggest underachiever among those 39 RBs with 50+ carries.

5. Colston Loveland is Back

After a surprisingly quiet start to the season, Colston Loveland has gotten back on track over the last four weeks, ranking top-8 among TEs in target share, expected points per game, and actual points per game. He’s been even better with QB Caleb Williams back the past two games, ranking second in both expected and actual points.

Loveland’s route rate is still lagging a bit, although it could get a boost now that TE Cole Kmet is done for the season with a knee injury. Kmet had run a route on 37% of pass plays through 6 games.

Any additional routes for Loveland would be huge. He ranks third among 37 qualifying TEs in targets per route (0.28) over the last four weeks.

6. What’s Up with Nico Collins?

Collins opened the season with WR8 and WR3 PPR finishes. In his last three games: WR33, WR33, and WR73.

The usage has declined with the production. Collins has drawn just 18.3% of Houston’s targets over the last three weeks after registering a 26.1% share over his first two games.

He’s failed to hit an 18% target share in two straight outings. That happened in just seven of 37 healthy games (19%) over the previous three seasons.

Collins’ target shares in healthy games those years:

• 2023: 22.1%
• 2024: 26.3%
• 2025: 23.8%

The volume dip over the last two weeks coincides with WR Marvin Harrison’s arrival and WR Jaylin Noel’s emergence. Harrison has drawn 8 targets on just 16 routes over that span and should see more playing time going forward. Noel, though, went down with turf toe last week and will likely miss time.

7. Dylan Sampson’s Return Makes Quinshon Judkins a Sell

Week 7 gave us our first look at a healthy Browns backfield this season. Not surprisingly, Dylan Sampson’s return put a dent in Quinshon Judkins’ role.

Judkins maintained a clear lead in early-down snaps and carries. But Sampson took over primary passing-down duties, pacing the backfield in routes (39.0%) and targets (8.6%).

That’s a big deal for Judkins. He averaged 5.6 receiving PPR points per game over the first five weeks, accounting for 49.6% of his total fantasy production.

Judkins scored just 1.8 PPR points through the passing game in Week 7. He delivered his best fantasy line of the season thanks to 96 yards and two scores on the ground. But I’m not counting on that level of production going forward. Judkins averaged 44.2 rushing yards on 3.0 yards per carry over his first five games.

Put These Usage Trends to Work in Week 8

Spotting a role change is only useful if it helps you make your next lineup decision.

Who deserves a starting spot? Who belongs on your bench? And which close calls just got easier?

Our Week 8 fantasy football rankings turn these usage trends into start/sit advice so you can set your strongest lineup.