Bottom Line

Although his usage changed and efficiency sunk a bit in his first year with the Raiders, Adams used a whopping 180 targets to finish as a top-3 WR across fantasy formats.

He remains one of the very best WRs in the game.

He’ll be working with a new QB in 2023, though, after the Raiders swapped out Derek Carr for Jimmy Garoppolo. It looks like a lateral move at best, and potentially a downgrade.

The chemistry between Garoppolo and Adams is worth monitoring throughout the offseason, but Adams has simply been too good for too long to bet against.

What We Learned Last Year

• In his Raiders debut last season, Adams tallied:
  • 180 targets
  • 100 catches
  • 1,516 receiving yards
  • 14 TDs
• The 180 targets were a career high. The yardage and TD totals were his second-best marks in nine NFL seasons.
• Adams ranked top-7 among WRs in all four categories, including leading the league in receiving scores.
• He finished third among WRs in PPR points; second in half-PPR and non-PPR.
• Adams has now finished as a top-11 WR in PPR points per game in seven straight seasons:
  • 2016:11th
  • 2017: 9th
  • 2018: 1st
  • 2019: 5th
  • 2020: 1st
  • 2021: 2nd
  • 2022: 6th
• His usage changed considerably in his first year in Vegas.
  • Over his final three seasons in Green Bay, Adams registered average target depths of 10.0, 8.9, and 9.6 yards.
  • He caught 71.2% of his targets and averaged 12.2 yards per catch.
  • Adams worked deeper in his first season with the Raiders, posting an aDOT of 11.8 yards.
  • His catch rate sunk to 55.6%, but he set a career high with 15.2 yards per catch.
  • Adams’ 8.4 yards per target last year was down a bit from his 8.8 yards over those final three seasons with the Packers. But it still ranked 30th among 85 WRs with 50+ targets.
  • Adams ranked fifth among those 85 WRs with 2.45 yards per route run, although that was also down from his yards per route over the previous three seasons (2.61, 2.75, 2.81).

What to Expect in 2023

• Adams is back in HC Josh McDaniels’ offense.
• Vegas lost 191 targets from last year (32.6% of the team total) with the offseason departures of WR Mack Hollins and TEs Darren Waller and Foster Moreau. The team added free-agent WR Jakobi Meyers, free-agent TE Austin Hooper, and rookie TE Michael Mayer. Adams should again be a target hog.
• The big change comes at QB, where Jimmy Garoppolo replaces Derek Carr. That looks like a lateral move at best, and potentially a downgrade.
  • Garoppolo beats Carr in career completion rate and yards per attempt, but he’s spent most of his time in Kyle Shanahan’s QB-friendly offense.
  • Carr beat Garoppolo in Pro Football Focus passing grade in four straight seasons from 2018-2021 – although Garoppolo edged Carr last year.
  • Garoppolo is also recovering from March foot surgery.
• Garoppolo has not been a particularly willing or effective downfield passer.
• Here’s where he has ranked in percentage of throws to travel 20+ yards over the last four seasons:
  • 2019: 46th out of 46 qualifiers
  • 2020: 42nd of 44
  • 2021: 39th of 42
  • 2022: 39th of 49
• And here’s where Garoppolo has ranked in Pro Football Focus passing grade on those deep balls:
  • 2019: 17th out of 46 qualifiers
  • 2020: 41st of 44
  • 2021: 27th of 42
  • 2022: 16th of 49
• It’s a concern for Adams if the Raiders continue to deploy him deeper down the field, like they did last year.