What You Need to Know:

• Even though he missed 2 games and left a 3rd early, Adams still led the league with 28.3% target share last season. For his 15 full games -- including the playoffs -- Adams grabbed a 33.2% share.
  • For the regular season, Stefon Diggs (27.85%), DeAndre Hopkins (27.83%) and Darren Waller (26.3%) were the only other players to reach 25%.
• In 2019, Adams drew 29.7% target share in his 14 games (including playoffs). In 2018, it was 28.2% over his 15 contests.
• Last season, Adams was the only Packer to exceed 63 targets. Aaron Jones and Marquez Valdes-Scantling tied for 2nd on the team with that number. Then came Robert Tonyan at 59. No other Packer reached 50.
• The biggest additions for this year’s pass-catching corps: 3rd-round rookie WR Amari Rodgers and 2020 opt-out WR Devin Funchess.
• Adams is likely to see some regression from his 15.7% TD rate last season, but that ranked him just 13th among wideouts with 30+ targets.
• Adams has been heavily targeted in the end zone over the past 3 seasons. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranked 4th in the league in end-zone targets in 2018, tied for 9th in 2019 (when he missed 4 games) and tied for 3rd last year.
• Adams has showed just how volatile production can be in that area even with Aaron Rodgers as your QB: He caught 6 of 17 end-zone looks in 2018 (35.3%), 2 of 11 in 2019 (18.2%) and then 11 of 16 last year (68.75%).
• That was the biggest factor in Adams outsourcing the nearest WR (Tyreek Hill) by 3.8 PPR points per game last year.
• Adams still checked in 1st and 5th the previous 2 seasons in PPR points per game.
• Among WRs with 300+ targets over the past 3 seasons, Adams ranks 10th in catch rate (69.4%). Last year’s 77.2% beat his previous high by 11.5 percentage points.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Adams should dominate target share no matter who’s behind center for the Packers this season. He’ll almost definitely see a significant decline in TDs, though, and probably see his catch rate fall. If Aaron Rodgers decides not to throw the passes, the impact could be even greater. Let’s hope we get that question answered, at least, before August drafts. Until then, Adams obviously carries more risk than he would with Rodgers harmony.