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David Montgomery - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic Stats Basic Stats

David Montgomery
CHI

RB CHI

#21 Running Back

181 Projected Points

ADP: 3.6
Bye: 10
Experience: 2 Yr(s)
Age: 24
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 219
40 Time: 4.60

2021 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#21 Running Back

181 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
3.6 246 1055 7 3 2 35 277 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

3d Projection

Med Floor

159.3

DS Projection

181

Consensus

38 other sites
132.4

High Ceiling

228.1

Ceiling Likelihood

Medium
How likely they will reach their ceiling projection

Basic Stats Preseason Player Analysis

What You Need to Know:

  • Montgomery leaped from RB33 in PPR points per game as a 2019 rookie to 7th last season.
  • He got a boost from a soft late-season schedule. Chicago’s final 6 opponents and their ranking in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA:
    • Packers, 18th
    • Lions, 27th
    • Texans, 29th
    • Vikings, 30th
    • Jaguars, 24th
    • Packers, 18th
  • Montgomery scored 8 TDs over those 6 games and led all RBs in PPR points.
  • For weeks 1-9, Montgomery ranked 14th among PPR RBs, scoring 2 total TDs. (He missed Week 10.)
  • Montgomery showed signs of overall improvement vs. his rookie year, though.
    • He ranked 6th in Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating, among 63 RBs with 75+ carries. Montgomery checked in 33rd among 50 such backs in 2019.
    • He ranked 10th among all RBs in PFF rushing grade, after slotting an ugly 73rd as a rookie.
    • He climbed from 42nd in FO’s rushing DYAR and 40th in DVOA in 2019 to 30th in each last season.
  • Montgomery remained mediocre in receiving grade, earning the exact same grade. (That ranked him 37th in 2019; 41st in 2020.)
  • His touch volume benefited from Tarik Cohen suffering an ACL tear in Week 3. Montgomery garnered 61.3% of Bears carries in 2019, then just 50.6% over the first 3 games of 2020. He collected 70% over 12 games with Cohen out. Montgomery’s target share also jumped to 12.1% in 12 games without Cohen. That followed shares of 6.0% in 2019 and 7.8% over the first 3 games of 2020.
  • Montgomery was 1 of just 6 RBs to score at a top-13 level in more than 50% of his appearances last season. He also tied for 10th in producing top-24 weeks.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Even if you’re skeptical of Montgomery’s fantasy numbers from 2020 (for good reason), the advanced metrics point to improved performance for the Chicago RB in his 2nd season.

The problem is the return of Cohen, which will almost certainly sap targets. The Bears also signed Damien Williams (to a small 1-year deal) and drafted Khalil Herbert (in Round 6), but neither of those players looks like a significant challenge to Montgomery’s outlook. The good news here is that fantasy drafters overall remain skeptical of the 3rd-year Bear. He’s going as RB20 early in Round 4 of FFPC best-ball drafts. He can fall well off his 2020 pace and still be fine at that level.

 

Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Bears RB David Montgomery (concussion) put in a full week of practice and isn’t listed on the final injury report. He’ll return for Sunday night’s game against the Packers’ 31st-ranked RB defense. Montgomery has averaged 14.7 carries and 5.3 targets in 6 games since RB Tarik Cohen went down.

View all David Montgomery Shark Bites »

Bears RB David Montgomery has cleared the concussion protocol. Barring a setback, he'll play against the Packers on Sunday night. Montgomery has been inefficient for most of the season but has averaged 14.7 carries and 5.3 targets in 6 games since RB Tarik Cohen went down.

View all David Montgomery Shark Bites »

The Bears have ruled RB David Montgomery (concussion) out for Monday night's game against the Vikings. That leaves the backfield to Cordarrelle Patterson and Ryan Nall. Patterson has been consistently playing more snaps than Nall and lining up in the backfield more than he has at WR. We'd bet on Patterson leading Bears in RB touches on Monday night. Patterson has only topped 4 carries once through a season and a half in Chicago and never exceeded 7. He did garner 10 and 11 carries in consecutive games with the 2018 Patriots. Lamar Miller seems likely to be in the mix as well, assuming the Bears elevate him from the practice squad. It's also worth noting that HC Matt Nagy is turning over play-calling duties to OC Bill Lazor for this game.

View all David Montgomery Shark Bites »

Bears RB David Montgomery (concussion) remained sidelined on Friday. .He’s looking like a long shot to get cleared in time for Monday night’s game against the Vikings. That’d leave RB Ryan Nall atop the depth chart. Chicago could also use Cordarrelle Patterson more out of the backfield. And we’ll see if RB Lamar Miller is elevated from the practice squad.

View all David Montgomery Shark Bites »

Bears RB David Montgomery (concussion) did not practice on Thursday. He has an extra day to get cleared for Monday night's game vs. the Vikings, but fantasy owners shouldn't be counting on him at this point. Montgomery's absence would leave Chicago's backfield to some combination of Ryan Nall, Cordarrelle Patterson and potentially practice-squad call-up Lamar Miller.

View all David Montgomery Shark Bites »

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