David Montgomery Fantasy Overview

2025 Role & Results

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Montgomery finished 2025 with 716 rushing yards (30th), 8 rushing TDs (tied 12th), 24 receptions for 192 yards, and 164.9 PPR fantasy points (27th) across 17 games.

The TDs obviously drove his fantasy scoring, as they did his RB15 and RB16 finishes the previous two seasons.

Montgomery’s 9.5 PPR points per game in 2025 ranked just 36th among RBs. He managed one top-12 finish and six top-24 finishes before Jahmyr Gibbs pushed him aside in the second half of the season.

Usage & Role

Montgomery set career lows in carries per game (9.3) and targets per game (1.7) in his final Detroit campaign, but the season’s two halves looked quite different.

When the Lions shifted play calling from OC John Morton to HC Dan Campbell, Montgomery's usage fell sharply. In eight games under Morton, Montgomery averaged 11.1 carries (39.2% share) and 2.1 targets (7.1% share) while ranking 24th in PPR points per game (11.6).

Over the final nine games under Campbell, that fell to 7.7 carries (32.1% share) and 1.3 targets (3.5% share), while Montgomery dropped to RB49 in PPR points per game (7.7).

The 9.3 carries per game for the season marked a significant dip from Montgomery’s previous low of 12.6 for the 2022 Bears.

Efficiency & Regression

A 29-year-old RB coming off a career low in carries isn’t the kind of archetype we want to chase in fantasy. Montgomery’s a little different, though. He goes from sharing a backfield with one of the league’s best RBs to a team that traded two draft picks to acquire him. Houston clearly intends to put Montgomery in the backfield lead, and touch volume remains the biggest driver of RB production.

Montgomery has shown the ability to pick up yardage after contact. He ranked in the top third of RBs with 50+ carries in YAC per attempt in each of the past three years, even improving his rate over that time:

• 2023: 3.05 (22nd among 68 RBs)
• 2024: 3.12 (23rd among 70 RBs)
• 2025: 3.17 (21st among 65 RBs)

He’s almost certainly trading down in blocking help. Detroit led the league two of the past three years in adjusted line yards, basically a measure of yards per carry attributable to the team’s blocking. Houston finished each of those years outside the top 20. But last year’s Lions slipped to 20th in that category, settling a mere four spots ahead of the Texans.

Offensive Context

Montgomery’s receiving opportunities fell off in Detroit as well, which was understandable with Gibbs around.

He averaged 2.6 receptions per game across four seasons as Chicago’s lead back but then dipped to 1.7 per game over three Detroit seasons. Even that number got propped up by Montgomery’s 2.6 catches per game in 2024. He went for 1.1 and 1.4 in the surrounding campaigns.

Montgomery has performed pretty well in the passing game for his career, though. He has averaged a nice 8.2 yards per catch for his career, caught 81.1% of his targets, and even led the league in receiving success rate in 2024 (among 152 qualifiers across positions).

Success rate measures how often a player gains what’s “needed” in a given situation (40% of yards required on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% of third or fourth down).

Houston retains Woody Marks, who led last year’s backfield in receiving and racked up 261 receptions for his five-year college career. Montgomery beat Marks in PFF receiving grade and pass-blocking grade for the season, though.

We’ll see how the Texans sort roles in their renovated backfield.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Projected Role & Competition

Houston acquired Montgomery from Detroit in March for OL Juice Scruggs, a 2026 fourth-round pick, and a 2027 seventh-round pick, a meaningful price for a backfield that needed a lead back. He enters 2026 as the clear lead runner, with Woody Marks behind him.

Montgomery should at least dominate early-down and goal-line carries, which has always been the engine of his fantasy production. The situation on the Texans could make for less TDs however.

Montgomery handled 61.5% of the Lions carries within the 5-yard line last season (compared to 38.5% for Jahmyr Gibbs). The team totaled 26 carries inside the 5 last year, and 55 carries over the last two years.

The Texans only had 21 carries inside the 5 last season, with Marks’ 9 leading the team. (He converted only one of them). The Texans totaled a mere 33 carries inside the 5 over the past two years.

That’s likely to mean fewer TD opportunities than Montgomery saw in Detroit.

Supporting Cast

C.J. Stroud returns as the starter, but he's coming off a down year (QB22 in fantasy points per game) with declining efficiency. More importantly here, Houston's 57.4% pass rate (14th) and low RB target share (13.2%, 29th) structurally limited last year’s RB receiving production.

We’ll see if that number can climb back toward the 18.2% in 2024 (11th) or 18.9% in 2023 (15th), before Caley arrived.

The O-line's run-blocking grades are the bigger story for Montgomery. Houston ranked 21st in PFF run-block grade, 32nd in ESPN run-block win rate, and 24th in adjusted line yards, all bottom-10 marks that make it harder for any back to produce efficiently, regardless of talent.

They have reshuffled somewhat with free agents Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith expected to start along with rookie first-round pick Keylan Rutledge.

The O-line additions don’t inspire confidence. Teller ranked 39th among 103 guards with 100+ snaps last season in PFF run blocking grade while Smith ranked 73rd among 106 OTs.

Rutledge offers upside, ranking 18th among 439 FBS guards last season.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Nick Caley's first season as OC in 2025 produced a conservative leaning offense. The 57.4% pass rate (16th) and 54.5% neutral pass rate (14th) both dropped in 2025 from Slowik’s previous years.

The Texans offense in Caley’s second year could look similar to 2025. It should remain a balanced scheme designed to take pressure off Stroud and the O-line, with downfield passing to Collins as the primary motor.

The one difference would be the investment in Montgomery fueling the run game. Montgomery’s a clear upgrade on last year’s version of Nick Chubb, and that enhanced backfield could mean more running for the 2026 offense.

Paths To Ceiling

We know Houston plans to hand Montgomery the backfield lead, but two big questions will control how high his ceiling can climb:

• How large a share of the carries -- and especially targets -- will Montgomery get?
• Can the offense improve on whole and provide more TD chances?

The Texans have topped out at 13th in scoring (twice) in Stroud’s three seasons. If they can improve on that and give Montgomery the backfield receiving lead, he could easily climb into the position’s top 20 in fantasy scoring.

Risk Factors

The O-line presents the biggest risk. Houston ranked 32nd in ESPN run-block win rate last year. If it doesn’t improve on that, Montgomery will have a tough time delivering efficient rushing.

Texans RBs generated 2.73 yards after contact per attempt last year. Montgomery has beaten that rate in five of his seven pro seasons, including the past four in a row.

If the O-line leads to inefficient rushing and Montgomery continues to see limited receiving usage, he could land in low-RB3 territory and offer your team little help.