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David Montgomery - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDavid Montgomery's Basic Stats

David Montgomery
ADP: 3.9
Bye: 14
Experience: 3 Yr(s)
Age: 25.0
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 222
40 Time: 4.63
SPARQx (Rank): 98.10 (16%)
Burst Score (Rank): 109.00 (10%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.35 (56%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.12

David Montgomery's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#21 Running Back

175 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
3.9 221.6 860.6 7 1.9 1.4 52.7 389.7 1.8

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDavid Montgomery's Preseason Player Analysis

View RB Fantasy Rankings »

What You Need to Know:

  • Montgomery took a step back in 2021, his 3rd pro season.
  • Across a career-low 13 games, he posted 225-849-7. That’s just 3.8 YPC.
  • Among 19 RBs with 200+ carries, Montgomery ranked 16th in Elusive Rating, 17th in YPC, 17th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade and 19th in YAC per attempt.
  • He finished as an RB2 or better in 8 games.
  • He added 42 catches and was on a full-season pace of 55 catches. That would have ranked 5th at the position.
  • A Week 4 knee injury knocked Montgomery out until Week 9.
  • His pre/post injury splits were clear. Prior to the injury, Montgomery averaged 4.5 YPC; 3.4 YPC after. His yards per catch dipped by a full yard post-injury, and his long run went for just 24 yards.
  • It wasn’t all on the RB, though — Chicago’s O-line was a letdown. They ranked 22nd in PFF’s run-blocking grades. Montgomery ranked 45th among 53 RBs in yards before contact per attempt (1.9).
  • HC Matt Nagy’s stagnant offense gave little chance for liftoff under rookie QB Justin Fields, who made only 10 starts.
  • Nagy was canned in January. HC Matt Eberflus — and more importantly, OC Luke Getsy — were hired.
  • Getsy has never been an NFL play-caller. The Athletic’s Adam Jahns wrote in May that the team is “transitioning to a run-heavy team with outside-zone.” Chicago’s likely to roster a FB (Khari Blasingame).
  • Chicago’s O-line didn’t get noticeably better over the offseason. We’d be surprised if they’re any better than league-average.
  • 2nd-year RB Khalil Herbert has the skill set to potentially carve out a sizable role. At a minimum, he looks to be Montgomery’s clear-cut handcuff.
  • Montgomery is set to enter a contract year. No extension is expected to be reached prior to Week 1.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Montgomery’s finished 15th and 6th in PPR PPG over the past 2 seasons. An injury hampered his 2021 upside, but he still saw the volume to remain a valuable fantasy back.

2022 turns up a coaching change, and with that, some uncertainty over Montgomery’s workhorse role. Khalil Herbert flashed in limited time as a rookie. Montgomery, though, remains the heavy favorite to see ~15-18 touches per game — at least early in the season.

This offense simply doesn’t profile as high-scoring, making Montgomery an RB2 with a questionable ceiling.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Khalil Herbert, RB CHI

2:30pm EDT 6/28/22

More work for Herbert?

Adam Jahns of The Athletic writes that RB Khalil Herbert “looks poised for a larger role” in year 2. The former 6th round pick wasn’t drafted by new GM Ryan Poles. And he’s learning a different offense under new HC Matt Eberflus and OC Luke Getsy. Still, one look at the Bears’ depth chart says Herbert’s close to a lock for the #2 job behind David Montgomery. At a minimum, it’s encouraging that he handled 18, 19, 18 and 23 carries early in his rookie year with Montgomery sidelined. Ultimately, we don’t anticipate Herbert seeing enough work to gain standalone fantasy value. But one Montgomery injury would likely place the 2nd-year back firmly in RB2+ territory.

View all Khalil Herbert Shark Bites »

Speaking at minicamp, Bears HC Matt Eberflus gave his assessment of 6th-round rookie RB Trestan Ebner. “Just an explosive athlete who can run the whole route tree as you saw today on that great catch he made,” Eberflus said. “He’s been really learning a lot. He’s a mature young man and we like where he is in terms of learning the offense and what kind of man he is.” Ebner’s speed and pass-catching ability make him a name to watch in dynasty leagues. Across 5 years at Baylor, the 206-pounder racked up 127 catches. He’ll battle for the #3 job behind David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert.

View all Trestan Ebner Shark Bites »

The Bears fired HC Matt Nagy. This move has been anticipated for weeks now. Nagy went 12-4 in his first season at the helm but totaled only 22 wins over the past 3 seasons. He also didn't seem to maximize QB Justin Fields' skill set this year. Chicago's next HC hire will be key for Fields' development.

Update: Chicago also fired GM Ryan Pace.

View all Justin Fields Shark Bites »

Bears HC Matt Nagy said Friday that QB Nick Foles will start Sunday's game vs. the Seahawks. QB Andy Dalton (left hand, groin) is out for Week 16, while QB Justin Fields (ankle) was unable to practice on Thursday or Friday. Nagy said that Fields might be active on Sunday, but it'd be as Foles' backup. Foles made 7 starts for the Bears last season, averaging 238 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT on a 66% completion rate and 5.9 yards per attempt.

View all Nick Foles Shark Bites »

Bears RB David Montgomery (shoulder, groin, glute) is not listed on the final injury report after putting in a full practice on Friday. He should be ready for a workhorse role on Sunday night against the Packers.

View all David Montgomery Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

David Montgomery, RB CHI
Dynasty MVP 138.4
Position Rank #21 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
515
812
812
Dynasty Write-up
Montgomery has gone from 15.1 to 16.5 to 17.3 carries per game over his first 3 NFL seasons. The concern for us is that he was out-played by rookie Khalil Herbert by basically any metric last year. And a new coaching staff in Chicago adds risk to Montgomery's workload.
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