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David Montgomery - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsDavid Montgomery's Basic Stats

David Montgomery
ADP: 6.7
Bye: 5
Experience: 5
Age: 27.1
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 224
40 Time: 4.63

SPARQx (Rank): 98.10 (18%)
Burst Score (Rank): 109.00 (10%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.35 (57%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.12

David Montgomery's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
61 0.68 1.4 10.7 0.04 11.2
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
62.2 0.7 1.7 13 0.1 11.6

David Montgomery's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#17 Running Back

181.8 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
6.7 193.4 873.4 9.64 1.7 1.4 20.4 155.6 0.58

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsDavid Montgomery's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Montgomery’s primary risk factors are the presence of Jahmyr Gibbs and the chance (likelihood?) of regression in his TD rate. They would be more worrisome if the market were underrating those factors. But best ball ADP has Montgomery valued right where our half-PPR RB rankings do. And that market is undervaluing RBs in general. Montgomery remains most attractive with less reception scoring. But he’s a usable asset across formats.

What We Learned Last Year

  • The Lions showed that they let Jamaal Williams walk while paying up for Montgomery because they view Monty as Williams-plus.
    • Williams, of course, scored a league-high 17 rushing TDs in 2022 before leaving for New Orleans in free agency.
    • Montgomery tied for third among all RBs with 13 rushing scores last year, despite missing three games and sharing the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs.
  • Montgomery opened the year with a larger share of the workload but predictably ceded some of that to the rookie as the year progressed.
    • Over their first seven healthy games together, Montgomery garnered 57.8% carry share vs. just 28.9% for Gibbs.
    • From Week 10 on, however, that gap shrunk dramatically: 48.8% for Montgomery vs. 40.2% for Gibbs.
    • The rookie also more than doubled the vet in target share for the year: 12.3% to 4.95%.
  • Montgomery still tied for 15th among RBs in PPR points per game.
    • He checked in 12th in half-PPR and sixth in non-PPR.
  • The main driver: His high TD rate. Montgomery scored on 5.94% of his carries last year. Only four RBs scored at a higher rate.
    • But Gibbs finished right behind him. And, of course, then Lions RB Jamaal Williams led the NFL in rushing scores the year before.
  • Lions RBs have ranked first and third in total PPR points in OC Ben Johnson’s two seasons at that post. (They retained him this offseason despite multiple HC interviews.)
  • The offense has also finished each of those seasons fifth in the league in scoring. Detroit has ranked among the top 4 in total yards and top 7 in offensive DVOA each year.
  • The O-line tied San Francisco for the league lead in adjusted line yards in 2023, according to FTN.
    • That marked easily the best blocking of Montgomery’s career. Just one of his four Bears teams ranked higher than 23rd (11th in 2022).

What to Expect in 2024

  • Let’s start with a couple of negative aspects:
    • Gibbs’ presence obviously limits Montgomery to some degree, both his season-long upside and his weekly touch consistency.
    • There’s likely to be some TD regression.
  • Now let’s get to why you shouldn’t worry too much about either of those.
    • First, we already saw Montgomery deliver fantasy points at a fine clip even with his work split much more even over the second half of last year.
      • From Week 10 on, Montgomery ranked 13th among RBs in PPR points per game; ninth in non-PPR.
    • Second, this is – and should remain – one of the league’s best RB situations.
      • Detroit ranks 25th in the league in situation-neutral pass rate under OC Ben Johnson, according to RBSDM.com. That included ranking 25th last season.
      • The O-line should remain strong, and might be in even better shape. LT Taylor Decker and C Frank Ragnow each missed a pair of games last year. And the only starter not returning is G Jonah Jackson, whom Pro Football Focus graded poorest among the group in run blocking. Baltimore replaced him with free agent Kevin Zeitler, who is 34 and no lock for strong performance. But he has also earned higher run-blocking grades in each of his 12 seasons than Jackson did last year.
    • Third, the Lions love running the ball near the goal line – and visit that range a lot.
      • Montgomery tied for third in the league in carries inside the 5 last year, according to Pro Football Reference. That came despite missing three games and seeing limited time in several others. Jamaal Williams led the league in that category the year before – by eight carries (28-20).
      • QB Jared Goff, meanwhile, ranked sixth and fifth in pass attempts from inside the 10 the past two years – according to PFR.
      • That combo highlights how often the No. 5 scoring offense each of the past two years gets near the goal line.
  • It might seem like Montgomery’s been around for a long time, but he just turned 27 in June. According to our historical aging data, nearly all RB types remain near peak production at that point in their careers – with potential steep drops looming in the age-29 campaign.

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Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET

10:32am EDT 5/16/24

More work coming for Jahmyr Gibbs

Lions GM Brad Holmes said in a recent appearance on The Rich Eisen Show that he expects RB Jahmyr Gibbs to see a bigger workload in 2024. Gibbs averaged 12.1 carries and 3.5 catches per game as a rookie last year. His share of backfield touches grew throughout the season, so it certainly makes sense that he'll get the rock more in year 2.

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Ben Johnson will remain with the Lions as OC for the 2024 season, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. Johnson had been a hot name in this year's coaching cycle and had been linked to Washington's still-open job. His return is excellent news for Detroit's offense. The Lions lead the NFL with 387 total yards per game and rank fourth with 26.9 points per game under Johnson over the past two seasons.

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Lions HC Dan Campbell said Monday that he plans to play his starters in this weekend's regular-season finale vs. the Vikings. Detroit has won the NFC North, can't drop lower than the No. 3 seed in the NFC, and can only climb to No. 2 with a win plus a Cowboys loss to the Commanders and an Eagles loss to the Giants. "We want to use this as fuel," Campbell said. "I’ve got pure octane right now. I woke up and I’m ready, so we’re moving forward.” There's still some risk that the Lions pull key starters at some point during this game, especially if Dallas and Philadelphia have big leads. But we'll be projecting the starters for at least close to normal workloads in the Week 18 Rankings.

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The box score says RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery split work evenly in Sunday's Lions loss at Chicago. Gibbs carried 11 times (for 66 yards and a TD) to 10 for Montgomery (66 yards). His 4 targets led Montgomery by just one, while the pair each caught three passes. But Gibbs played 41 snaps to Montgomery's 23, according to Pro Football Focus. Nearly all of that edge came in the passing game, with Gibbs running 24 routes to Montgomery's 8. What's that mean? You shouldn't trust those 3 Montgomery receptions. It marked the first time this season that Montgomery has caught more than two passes and just the second time he has drawn more than 2 targets. You should also expect Gibbs to get more playing time when Detroit plays from behind. That game script wasn't predictable for a contest the Lions entered as 3-point favorites Sunday. We also wouldn't bet on Denver jumping well ahead of Detroit in Week 15 or Minnesota doing so in Week 16. But a Week 17 visit to Dallas will likely find the Lions as underdogs. Both RBs should be solid fantasy options for the next two weeks. Week 17 figures to find Gibbs well ahead of Montgomery in our rankings.

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The Lions continued to split backfield work between RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 12. Montgomery beat the rookie 2-0 in goal line carries, leading to a 6-yard score up the gut. Overall, Montgomery out-carried Gibbs 15-11, with Gibbs continuing to lead the way in the passing game (8 targets). Struggles from QB Jared Goff -- as well as one drop -- limited Gibbs' impact to 4 catches for 19 yards. Week 13 turns up a tough date at New Orleans, followed by plus matchups against Chicago and Denver. Overall, we're not changing our outlook for this backfield.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

David Montgomery, RB DET
Dynasty MVP 90.7
Position Rank #39 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
331
462
695
Dynasty Write-up
Montgomery inked a 3-year deal in March of 2023 with $11 million guaranteed. Playing alongside Jahmyr Gibbs, the former Bear proceeded to set a career high in TDs (13) across 14 games. Montgomery should return to a similar role for his age-27 season.
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