Bottom Line

After a WR10 PPR finish in 2021, Renfrow bombed last year in new HC Josh McDaniels’ offense alongside target hog Davante Adams. He missed seven games and ranked outside the top 60 WRs across fantasy formats in the other 10.

McDaniels and Adams are back this season. And the Raiders added Jakobi Meyers, who figures to serve as the #2 WR.

There’s no reason to get excited about Renfrow in 2023 fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Renfrow totaled just 36 catches for 330 yards and two TDs in 10 games last year.
• He missed two games with a concussion and another five with an oblique injury.
• His scoring averages in his 10 games ranked 69th among WRs in PPR points and 84th in non-PPR.
• Renfrow scored as a top-36 PPR WR in just one of his 10 games and cracked the top-24 just once.
• The production was way down from his 103-1,038-9 line and WR10 PPR finish in 2021.
• Renfrow’s efficiency sunk:.
  • Catch rate - 80.5% to 72.0%
  • Yards per catch - 10.1 to 9.2
  • Yards per target - 8.1 to 6.6
  • Yards per route - 1.87 to 1.13
• But the bigger problem was his volume plummeting. Renfrow went from 7.5 targets per game on a 20.4% share in 2021 to 5.0 targets per game on a 14.5% share last year.

What to Expect in 2023

• Don’t bank on the volume bouncing back much, if at all, this season.
• The Raiders lost 191 total targets (32.6%) from last year with the departures of WR Mack Hollins, TE Darren Waller, and TE Foster Moreau.
• But WR Davante Adams, who hogged 30.7% of last year’s targets, is back. And Vegas added TEs Michael Mayer and Austin Hooper and WR Jakobi Meyers.
• Meyers looks like Renfrow’s biggest roadblock. The former Patriot spent his first three NFL seasons with current Vegas HC Josh McDaniels in New England. He got a three-year, $33 million deal from the Raiders, which means they expect him to play a big role. And, like Renfrow, Meyers spends a lot of time in the slot. He ran 65% of his routes with the Patriots from the slot. Renfrow's career slot rate sits at 70%. That spiked to 86% last year.
• The Raiders swapped out QB Derek Carr for QB Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason. That looks like a lateral move at best. Garoppolo beats Carr in career completion rate and yards per attempt, but he’s spent most of his time in Kyle Shanahan’s QB-friendly offense. Carr beat Garoppolo in Pro Football Focus passing grade in four straight seasons from 2018-2021 – although Garoppolo edged Carr last year.