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Melvin Gordon - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsMelvin Gordon's Basic Stats

Melvin Gordon
ADP: 8.8
Bye: 9
Experience: 7 Yr(s)
Age: 29.4
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 215
40 Time: 4.52
SPARQx (Rank): 121.00 (80%)
Burst Score (Rank): 122.50 (72%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.11 (82%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.04

Melvin Gordon's Weekly Outlook

Week 4 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
39.8 0.3 1.8 12.4 0.1 7.4
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
37.5 0.4 2 15.8 0.1 8.1

Melvin Gordon's 2022 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#40 Running Back

105 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
8.8 121 532.6 4.8 1.2 1.1 24.9 191.7 1

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsMelvin Gordon's Preseason Player Analysis

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What You Need to Know:
  • Gordon ran for 918 yards and 8 scores on 203 carries across 16 games last year. He added 28 catches for 213 yards and 2 TDs.
  • He finished 17th among RBs in PPR points, 15th in half-PPR points and 15th in non-PPR points.
  • Gordon missed Week 13 with a hip injury. He also played through a sprained thumb late in the season.
  • He’s made it through a full season just once in 7 tries, missing a total of 15 games for his career.
  • Gordon turned 29 in April.
  • In their 16 games together last year, Gordon out-carried Javonte Williams 203 to 180 and 11 to 10 inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Williams led with 44 targets to Gordon’s 38.
  • Gordon beat Williams last year in yards per carry (4.5 to 4.4), Pro Football Focus rushing grade and Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA. Williams beat Gordon in PFF’s Elusive Rating, which measures a RB’s impact beyond the blocking he receives.
    • Among 50 RBs league-wide with 100+ carries last season, Gordon ranked 9th in PFF rushing grade, 14th in Elusive Rating and 31st in Football Outsiders rushing DVOA.
  • In the passing game, Williams beat Gordon in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run.
    • Among 49 RBs league-wide with 30+ targets last year, Gordon ranked 39th in both PFF receiving grade and yards per route.
  • The Broncos let Gordon hit free agency this offseason before eventually signing him about a month-and-a-half later to a 1-year, $2.5 million contract. By comparison, Gordon previously played on a 2-year, $16 million deal.
  • Williams and Gordon will be playing under a new coaching staff this year led by HC Nathaniel Hackett.
    • It’s Hackett’s first crack at a HC gig. He has 8 years of NFL OC experience: 2013-2014 with the Bills, 2016-2018 with the Jaguars and 2019-2021 with the Packers.
      • Those 8 Hackett offenses all deployed committee backfields, with only Leonard Fournette (20.6 in 2017 and 16.6 in 2018) reaching 15.0 carries per game.
      • But, only 2 of those 8 teams had 2 RBs average double-digit carries per game.
  • The 2021 Broncos offensive line ranked 19th in PFF run-blocking grades and 18th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards. They’ll get RG Graham Glasgow back after he missed the 2nd half of last season with a broken leg. And they signed Billy Turner to replace Bobby Massie at RT.
  • "I don't think this is a running back competition between [Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams]. I think Gordon is the clear backup, and I believe he's competing with Boone for the No. 2 job." Said Cecil Lammey of 104.3 The Fan.
Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Gordon played well from a real-life perspective last season – even better than backfield mate Javonte Williams by a lot of metrics. And he scored as an upper-end RB2 for fantasy squads.

Williams is an ascending 22-year-old, though. And Denver let 29-year-old Gordon toil on the open market for over a month before bringing him back on a cheap, 1-year deal.

So we’re expecting Williams to claim a bigger piece of this backfield pie this season. We’ll see exactly how big – and whether there’s enough left behind for Gordon to still be a fantasy starter.

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Recent Shark Bites View All Shark Bites »

Javonte Williams, RB DEN

8:20pm EDT 9/19/22

Williams widens playing-time gap

Broncos RB Javonte Williams had a decent day in Sunday's win over the Texans, rushing for 75 yards on 15 carries (5.0 per attempt) and adding a catch for 10 yards among 4 targets. The better news for Williams -- amid a rough day for the Denver offense on whole -- was that his playing time stood further ahead of Melvin Gordon's in Week 2. Williams played 65% of snaps against Houston, compared with 32% for Gordon. They went 58-41 in the opener. Gordon also saw his route rate dip further from what was already a good-sized gap in Williams' favor. So the role has looked good for Williams drafters. Now we just need Denver's offense to stop being run moronically.

View all Javonte Williams Shark Bites »

Broncos RB Javonte Williams totaled 108 yards in Monday’s road loss to Seattle. He played 38 snaps (vs. 27 for Melvin Gordon) but was out-carried by the veteran, 7-12. Williams delivered in fantasy on the strength of 11 catches for 65 yards. But his night should have been better, as he fumbled right at the goal line. Gordon actually fumbled in the same spot — so neither guy was benched for the miscue. At bottom, we’re likely headed for more games with heavy rotations going forward. Williams at least looks in peak tackle-breaking shape. Look for his efficient ways to continue Sunday vs. Houston.

View all Javonte Williams Shark Bites »

Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett dropped the "hot hand" bomb on Friday when discussing his Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon backfield. "I've always been a true believer in you want to roll with the hot hand," Hackett said. "One guy gets going, you want to be sure to keep feeding that person. But I think they're going to be great compliments to each other." It's the latest indication that Gordon will remain significantly involved in this backfield, at least out of the gate. We'll get our first look at the work split in Monday night's opener vs. the Seahawks.

View all Melvin Gordon Shark Bites »

Benjamin Allbright, a Broncos insider for KOA Radio in Denver, says those who draft RB Javonte Williams are "gonna be mad." He says it "looks like a 55/45" split between Williams and Melvin Gordon, "with some Mike Boone sprinkled in." Allbright adds that Gordon "is getting the situational work (GL, short yardage, etc)." The fact that we're getting varied reads on the situation from different reporters points to no one really knowing for sure what the Broncos' plan is. The sheer uncertainty adds risk to Williams at his Round 2 ADP and value to Gordon in Round 8.

View all Javonte Williams Shark Bites »

ESPN's Dan Granziano believes Broncos RB Javonte Williams "takes control of the backfield" this season. "I think [RB Melvin] Gordon, who has had a strong camp by all accounts, still has a role, but that it's a far more secondary role than he had last year," Graziano adds. It seems certain at this point that Williams will lead this Denver backfield. What we don't know is if it will be something like a 55/45 split, or more like a 70/30 split. You're banking on something closer to the latter if you're taking Williams in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts.

View all Javonte Williams Shark Bites »

Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Melvin Gordon, RB DEN
Dynasty MVP 22.2
Position Rank #100 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
105
105
105
Dynasty Write-up
Gordon returns to Denver on a 1-year deal -- likely as the #2 RB behind Javonte Williams. The former Wisconsin star turned 29 in April.

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