Melvin Gordon - Fantasy Points Outlook

What You Need to Know:

• Gordon ran for 918 yards and 8 scores on 203 carries across 16 games last year. He added 28 catches for 213 yards and 2 TDs.
• He finished 17th among RBs in PPR points, 15th in half-PPR points and 15th in non-PPR points.
• Gordon missed Week 13 with a hip injury. He also played through a sprained thumb late in the season.
• He’s made it through a full season just once in 7 tries, missing a total of 15 games for his career.
• Gordon turned 29 in April.
• In their 16 games together last year, Gordon out-carried Javonte Williams 203 to 180 and 11 to 10 inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. Williams led with 44 targets to Gordon’s 38.
• Gordon beat Williams last year in yards per carry (4.5 to 4.4), Pro Football Focus rushing grade and Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA. Williams beat Gordon in PFF’s Elusive Rating, which measures a RB’s impact beyond the blocking he receives.
  • Among 50 RBs league-wide with 100+ carries last season, Gordon ranked 9th in PFF rushing grade, 14th in Elusive Rating and 31st in Football Outsiders rushing DVOA.
• In the passing game, Williams beat Gordon in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run.
  • Among 49 RBs league-wide with 30+ targets last year, Gordon ranked 39th in both PFF receiving grade and yards per route.
• The Broncos let Gordon hit free agency this offseason before eventually signing him about a month-and-a-half later to a 1-year, $2.5 million contract. By comparison, Gordon previously played on a 2-year, $16 million deal.
• Williams and Gordon will be playing under a new coaching staff this year led by HC Nathaniel Hackett.
  • It’s Hackett’s first crack at a HC gig. He has 8 years of NFL OC experience: 2013-2014 with the Bills, 2016-2018 with the Jaguars and 2019-2021 with the Packers.
    • Those 8 Hackett offenses all deployed committee backfields, with only Leonard Fournette (20.6 in 2017 and 16.6 in 2018) reaching 15.0 carries per game.
    • But, only 2 of those 8 teams had 2 RBs average double-digit carries per game.
• The 2021 Broncos offensive line ranked 19th in PFF run-blocking grades and 18th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards. They’ll get RG Graham Glasgow back after he missed the 2nd half of last season with a broken leg. And they signed Billy Turner to replace Bobby Massie at RT.
• "I don't think this is a running back competition between [Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams]. I think Gordon is the clear backup, and I believe he's competing with Boone for the No. 2 job." Said Cecil Lammey of 104.3 The Fan.

Draft Sharks Bottom Line:

Gordon played well from a real-life perspective last season – even better than backfield mate Javonte Williams by a lot of metrics. And he scored as an upper-end RB2 for fantasy squads.

Williams is an ascending 22-year-old, though. And Denver let 29-year-old Gordon toil on the open market for over a month before bringing him back on a cheap, 1-year deal.

So we’re expecting Williams to claim a bigger piece of this backfield pie this season. We’ll see exactly how big – and whether there’s enough left behind for Gordon to still be a fantasy starter.