Godwin might have a volume problem

Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin looks like a value by ADP right now, especially at his WR29 price on Underdog Fantasy. He does sit higher than that in our fantasy football rankings. But he has some issues to overcome. Godwin rebounded from his 2021 ACL tear to finish 18th in PPR points per game at the position last year. That followed a No. 8 finish. But he -- and the rest of the Bucs receivers -- benefited from huge passing volume with Tom Brady. Tampa Bay led the league in pass attempts each of the past two seasons and has ranked among the league leaders throughout Godwin's six seasons. That volume figures to come down with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask replacing Brady. Godwin finished each of the past three years ranked 31st or worse in target share among WRs. If that doesn't rebound, he'd feel a volume drop even more. Godwin is also coming off career lows in yards per catch (9.8), yards per target (7.2), and yards per route (1.73). That's no surprise, given the December ACL tear that closed 2021. We're betting on some rebound for Godwin on that front. Though the QB switch could also challenge the WR's efficiency. Godwin looks like a decent bet at modest ADP. Just don't treat him like a lock for big 2023 fantasy points.