Minnesota Vikings 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• QB Kyler Murray
• WR Jauan Jennings

KEY DEPARTURES

• WR Jalen Nailor
• C Ryan Kelly

Notable Coaching Changes

• Frank Smith came over from the Dolphins and will hold the title of Assistant HC.

Kyler Murray

Another Injury Limits Production

A foot injury kept Murray to only five starts. That small sample produced 962 yards, 6 TDs, and 3 INTs. He added 173 yards and 1 score on the ground.

In four full games, he finished QB16, QB22, QB16, and QB16. His 19.0 fantasy points per game ranked 20th.

Not as Aggressive Through the Air

Murray averaged 32.5 pass attempts in his complete games. That volume is right in line with his numbers from 2024 (31.8) and 2023 (33.5).

Murray’s aggressiveness dipped slightly, with his 8.1% deep throw rate trailing his 10.0% mark in 2024 and 10.1% in 2023.

The bright spot came on the ground: 3.75 scrambles per game, up from 2.35 in 2024 and 2.0 in 2023 after an injury-shortened 2022. More on that in the Injury History & Durability section below.

Short Range Throws Boost Completion Rate

Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, Kyler ranked:

• fifth in adjusted completion rate
• 13th in catchable throw rate
• 24th in completion rate over expected
• 30th in fantasy points per dropback
• 37th in yards per attempt

Murray’s completion rate set a career high, improving from 74.9% in 2024 and 73.5% in 2023. But that was helped by a career-low 6.3-yard aDOT, fourth-lowest among QBs. 

His 6.0 yards per attempt also marked a career low, although efficiency has never been a strength with a career 6.9 YPA. (The league average in 2025 was 7.0.)

O-Line Play Wasn't Helpful

Arizona’s O-line ranked 21st in ESPN pass-block win rate and 27th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade.

Murray played all four of his complete games alongside Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr., but that stretch came before Michael Wilson’s late-season emergence. Wilson managed just 6 catches for 36 yards over the first month of the season.

Injury History Adds a New Entry

Murray left Week 5 with a mid-foot sprain and missed the final 12 games.

He played all 17 games in 2024 after an ACL tear cost him the end of 2022 and kept him out until Week 10 the following season.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

It's Kyler's Job to Lose

The Cardinals released Murray in early March, and he joined the Vikings on a one-year deal less than two weeks later.

Minnesota gives Murray a chance to start a full season, and the competition doesn’t look daunting. 

Primary 2025 starter J.J. McCarthy ranked 33rd among 42 qualifiers in adjusted completion rate and 40th in catchable throw rate, so Murray’s arrival indicates the Vikings weren’t satisfied.

Murray hasn’t been officially announced as the starter, but that’ll likely come during training camp. After watching practice in May, ESPN’s longtime Vikings beat writer Kevin Seifert said the “gap between the two quarterbacks was not close.”

Supporting Cast Looks Loaded

If Murray falters, it won’t stem from a lack of supporting talent.

The Vikings return Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison after a QB-driven dip in production. In 2024, that duo accounted for 49% of the targets, 45.6% of the catches, 54.9% of the receiving yards, and 54.2% of the receiving TDs.

Jauan Jennings replaces Jalen Nailor as the No. 3 WR. He led the 49ers in receiving yards in consecutive seasons and brings proven value in contested situations, leading all pass catchers with 39 contested catches on a strong 58.2% catch rate over the past two seasons.

T.J. Hockenson returns for his age-29 season. He recorded career lows in catches and yards per game last season, but an awful QB situation made him tough to fairly evaluate.

The O-line looks like a wild card after finishing 14th in PFF pass-blocking grade but just 25th in ESPN pass-block win rate and 32nd in adjusted sack rate last year.

Four of five starters return. The key here will be getting a full season from LT Christian Darrisaw, who made only 10 appearances in 2025 while dealing with the lingering effects of a 2024 ACL tear. 

This group will also replace veteran C Ryan Kelly, likely with Blake Brandel. Kelly ranked third among 45 qualifying centers in PFF pass-blocking grade; Brandel finished 15th.

Overall, Murray gets a favorable supporting cast, with the coaching staff strengthening his outlook.

Murray Lands With a Proven Play-caller

You only need to look back two seasons to see what HC Kevin O’Connell can get out of a veteran QB.

He helped steer pre-2024 bust Sam Darnold to a QB7 finish in total fantasy points. Darnold got there with a 6.4% TD rate, fifth-highest among qualifiers and well above Murray’s career high of 5.0%. But Darnold also didn’t add much as a rusher: 212 yards and a score.

The Vikings finished 20th in pass rate with Darnold and 13th last year with the disastrous QB situation. That followed seasons at fifth and sixth in pass rate, mostly under Kirk Cousins.

Our projections have the Vikings at a 55.4% pass rate, in part because Murray’s rushing volume shifts some of his dropbacks to the ground. It doesn’t lower his ceiling so much as change where the points come from.

O’Connell also has a history of leaning pass in scoring situations.

Rushing Production Will Be Key

Murray probably isn’t getting back to his 2020 rushing peak, when he reached 819 yards and 11 TDs. But he doesn’t need that to matter in fantasy, having twice reached 500 rushing yards and 5 scores in other seasons. That level of rushing would give him the look of a top-10 fantasy QB. 

Murray’s passing-TD ceiling gets a boost from Minnesota’s WR depth and O’Connell’s history of leaning pass near the goal line.

Can He Hold Off McCarthy?

Murray is expected to start Week 1 and hold the job for a contending team. But the presence of McCarthy -- a former Round 1 pick -- keeps open the possibility that Murray falls short of 17 games.

Aaron Jones

2025 Role & Results

Unspectacular in Year Nine

Jones spread 132 carries, 548 rushing yards, and 2 TDs across 12 games. He added 28 catches, 199 yards, and one receiving score.

The missed games left Jones 41st in total PPR points and RB32 in points per game, and the weekly ceiling barely showed up. He posted only two top-12 finishes, both at RB12, with just three other weeks inside the top 24.

Vikings Split Backfield Work

Jones shared the backfield with Jordan Mason for most of the season. In 10 games together, Jones recorded some underwhelming marks:

• 9.3 carries per game
• 3.4 targets per game
• RB38 in PPR points per game
• RB41 in expected PPR points per game

A healthy Mason limited Jones to only two games with 15+ touches.

Jones’ largest workloads came with Mason out: 23 touches after he left in the first quarter of Week 16 and 21 touches when Mason sat out Week 17.

Worrisome Efficiency Marks

Jones showed the declining efficiency you’d expect from a 31-year-old RB.

Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• 30th in yards per carry
• 39th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 41st in yards after contact per attempt
• 51st in missed tackles forced per attempt

Each mark set a career low.

Jones wasn’t a standout receiver, either, finishing 22nd out of 40 qualifiers in yards per route run.

The Offensive Environment Stunk

Jones doesn’t deserve all the blame.

A lousy QB trio of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer combined for 164.8 yards per game, fourth-fewest leaguewide. The Vikings failed to sustain drives, ranking last with a 31.8% third-down conversion rate.

Add in Minnesota’s No. 3 ranking in red-zone pass rate, and it’s easy to see why Jones posted the lowest rushing-TD rate of his career (1.5%).

The Vikings did finish third in ESPN’s run-block win rate and fifth in adjusted line yards, but the O-line couldn’t overcome the QB mess or Jones’ mounting injuries.

How Much Longer Will he Last?

We’ve charted 19 injuries across Jones’ nine-year NFL career. That includes hamstring and hip injuries that cost him five games in 2025.

Jones played all 17 games in 2024 but missed a career-high six games in 2023 with knee and hamstring trouble.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Jones (Surprisingly) Returns

The Vikings planned to move on from Jones after last season. Instead, the veteran agreed to a revised contract that’ll keep him in Minnesota for another season.

Mason enters his second Vikings season after beating Jones in rush yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced per attempt. But he doesn’t pose much of a threat as a pass catcher, with Jones beating him 137-37 in routes and 28-5 in targets during their shared games.

The Vikings added Round 6 RB Demond Claiborne in April. His 4.37-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine gives this backfield a needed speed element, but he’s unlikely to push for much of a role at only 5'10 and 188 pounds.

Still, Mason’s return should bring another limited workload for Jones. Our projections have him for 10.5 touches per game, aligning with his 2025 numbers with Mason.

A QB Upgrade Arrives

The Vikings signed veteran Kyler Murray, who's likely to start over J.J. McCarthy.

Murray lasted only five games last year before a foot injury sent him to IR. His 161-attempt sample turned up a conservative style with a low 6.3-yard average depth of target, but he converted that into the fifth-best adjusted completion rate among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts. He ranked 13th in the same sample in catchable throw rate -- 76.4% -- just ahead of Matthew Stafford.

Ultimately, Murray projects as a clear upgrade on McCarthy.

Minnesota’s O-line should remain in good shape with four starters returning from a productive group. The lone concern sits at center after Ryan Kelly retired. He made it through only eight games last season but ranked fifth among 60 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade. Blake Brandel, the expected replacement, finished 37th among that same sample.

O'Connell Likely to Favor Another Split Backfield

Jones enters Year 3 with HC Kevin O’Connell, whose Vikings offenses haven’t created much rushing volume:

We project a more balanced Vikings offense this year, with a 44.6% run rate that would have ranked 14th last season. But Murray’s projection of 5.6 carries per game soaks up part of that rushing volume. 

That leaves Jones and Mason in a split backfield likely to produce uneven weekly results.

Monitor His Health

Jones has missed multiple games in four of the past six seasons, including 11 total across 2023 and 2025. Mason’s return keeps in place another obstacle to Jones becoming a trustworthy RB2.

Jordan Mason

2025 Role & Results

Useful Fantasy Totals On Career-High Volume

Mason carried 159 times for 758 yards and 6 TDs, adding just 51 yards on 14 catches.

Mason landed at RB36 in total PPR points and RB44 in points per game. The weekly ceiling stayed tied to Jones’ availability, with four of his five top-24 finishes (RB7, RB19, RB20, and RB24) coming in games Jones missed.

Mason showed volatility with nine games at RB35 or worse.

A 1-2 Punch With Aaron Jones

The Vikings traded for Mason last March, then signed him to a two-year contract with $7 million in guarantees.

Mason narrowly trailed Jones in rushing volume across their 10 shared games, 9.3 carries to 8.3 per game. Jones easily led in the passing game, with an 11.6% target share to Mason’s 3.0%.

Mason owned the better goal-line role. He beat Jones in carry share inside the 10, 30% to 20%, and inside the 5, 40% to 20%. That helped drive a 6-2 edge in rushing TDs.

The Best Vikings RB Wasn't a Mystery

Mason won with efficiency as a runner. In a sample of 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• sixth in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 10th in yards after contact per attempt
• 11th in yards per carry
• 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt

He easily surpassed Jones in each metric. In fact, Jones tallied career lows in all four categories.

A Trusty O-line ... and Brutal QB Play

Mason stayed efficient despite a worrisome QB situation.

A lousy QB trio of J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer combined for 164.8 yards per game, fourth-fewest leaguewide. The Vikings failed to sustain drives, ranking last with a 31.8% third-down conversion rate.

That dragged Minnesota down to 26th in scoring, 17 spots worse than where this unit finished in 2024 with Sam Darnold.

The situation wasn’t all negative. The Vikings worked well up front, finishing third in ESPN’s run-block win rate and fifth in adjusted line yards. And that was with C Ryan Kelly missing nine games and LT Christian Darrisaw missing seven.

Only One Absence

Mason sat out one game with an ankle injury. 

In 2024, he missed four games with a high-ankle sprain.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Vikings Run it Back

The Vikings brought back Aaron Jones on a revised deal. He’ll turn 32 in-season and showed declining play last year, but expect him to occupy a similar role as last season. 

That would mean another limited receiving workload for Mason and a tight split on the ground.

Demond Claiborne adds some intrigue as a Round 6 rookie with 4.37 speed and 2,350 total yards over his final two seasons at Wake Forest. But at 188 pounds, he still needs to prove he can handle NFL contact and earn trust in pass protection.

Entering the season, Jones and Mason are the clear top-two backs. Our projections have Mason at 11.8 touches per game; Jones at 10.6.

One Major Change Under Center

The Vikings signed veteran Kyler Murray, who’s likely to start over J.J. McCarthy.

Murray lasted only five games last year before a foot injury sent him to IR. His 161-attempt sample turned up a conservative style with a low 6.3-yard average depth of target, but he converted that into the fifth-best adjusted completion rate among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts. He ranked 13th in the same sample in catchable throw rate -- 76.4% -- just ahead of Matthew Stafford.

Murray projects as a clear upgrade on McCarthy.

Minnesota’s O-line should remain in good shape with four starters returning from a productive group. The lone concern sits at center after Kelly retired. He made it through only eight games last season but still ranked fifth among 60 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grade. Blake Brandel, the expected replacement, finished 37th among that same sample.

O'Connell's Playcalling History is Telling

Mason enters Year 2 with O’Connell, whose Vikings offenses haven’t created much rushing volume.

We project a more balanced Vikings offense this year, including a 44.6% run rate that would have ranked 14th last season. But Murray’s rushing drives part of that, with his projection sitting at 5.6 carries per game. 

That leaves Jones and Mason in a split backfield likely to produce uneven weekly results.

A Lack of Receiving Hurts the Ceiling

Mason likely needs another Jones injury to unlock his fantasy upside. Even then, O’Connell doesn’t seem eager to use him as a pass catcher (just 6 targets in five Jones-less games last year). Claiborne’s arrival could still cap Mason as an RB2, even with an injured Jones.

Justin Jefferson

2025 Role & Results

A Forgettable Season

Despite playing all 17 games, Jefferson finished as one of fantasy’s biggest draft busts. He supplied 84 catches, 1,048 yards, and only 2 TDs. The last two marks set career lows.

He finished WR20 in total PPR points and 25th in half-PPR; 28th in PPR points per game and 34th in half-PPR points per game.

Jefferson’s best weekly PPR finish came at WR8, with only two other weeks inside the top 12. He added four more top-24 finishes but also landed outside the top 36 seven times.

Jefferson Should Have Scored Significantly More

No WR underachieved more than Jefferson vs. expected fantasy points, which is based on usage. 

His WR28 finish in PPR PPG (11.9) came in well under his expected finish of WR9 (15.3). A chunk of that includes his 8.8 expected TDs vs. only 2 actual scores.

But there was nothing wrong with Jefferson’s role. He ranked second among WRs in routes, sixth in target share, and 10th in red-zone target share. His QB play just stunk.

His Efficiency Fell Sharply

Here’s where Jefferson really underperformed.

Among 43 WRs with 80+ targets, he finished:

• 20th in yards per route run
• 26th in yards per catch
• 31st in yards per target
• 33rd in catch rate

One stat helps explain the sudden struggles. Jefferson’s catchable target rate fell to 71.7% after sitting at 78.0% in both 2023 and 2024. The 2025 figure ranked 36th in the same sample of 43 WRs.

QB Play Sunk the Offense

The Vikings weren’t a ripe environment for production, finishing 30th in total plays and 24th in situation-neutral pace. They added finishes of 30th in time of possession, 30th in plays, and 32nd in third-down conversion rate. That helped limit this unit to 20.2 points per game, seventh-fewest in the league.

QB play really bottomed out. J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer combined for 164.8 yards and 1.05 TDs per game.

At Least He Stayed Healthy ...

Durability stayed on Jefferson’s side. He played every game for the second straight year. His only missed time as a pro has been a seven-game 2023 absence for a hamstring injury.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

No Change to His No. 1 Role

Jefferson enters Year 7 still locked into the No. 1 role.

Jordan Addison returns as the No. 2 target after QB play limited him to career-low per-game numbers: 3.0 catches, 43.5 yards, and 0.21 TDs.

The Vikings added Jauan Jennings to replace free-agent departure Jalen Nailor, who vacates 53 targets from last year’s number. Jennings should absorb most of that work.

T.J. Hockenson returns for his age-29 season after a second straight down year (51-438-3 in 15 games). He won’t impede Jefferson’s shot at finishing among the league leaders in target share. Our current projections have him at 28.7%, which would have ranked fourth among all pass catchers last season.

Get Excited About the QB Change

The Vikings signed veteran Kyler Murray, who's the favorite to start over J.J. McCarthy.

Murray lasted only five games last year before a foot injury sent him to IR. His 161-attempt sample turned up a conservative style with a low 6.3-yard average depth of target, but he converted that into the fifth-best adjusted completion rate among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts. He ranked 13th in the same sample in catchable throw rate -- 76.4% -- just ahead of Matthew Stafford.

Murray projects as a sizable upgrade on McCarthy and gives Jefferson a shot at returning top-5 fantasy WR numbers.

Vikings Return a Proven Staff

There’s no concern here. The Vikings return HC Kevin O’Connell and OC Wes Phillips, a tandem that helped Jefferson finish WR1, WR5, and WR4 in PPR points per game from 2022-2024.

One reason why: A tilt toward the pass. This duo has finished fifth, second, 20th, and 13th in pass rate. Even with the awful QB setup in 2025, the Vikings slid to a mid-pack 19th in situation- neutral pass rate.

Jefferson's History and Age Say he Can Rebound

Jefferson’s multi-year track record shows a high-end WR1 ceiling, so there’s no projection needed. At 27, he’s only one year past the peak production age in our historical aging curves.

Murray Needs to Stay Healthy

It begins and ends with the health of his QB, who has missed 6+ games in three of the past four seasons. Murray enters the summer healthy, though, and we’re not knocking Jefferson’s numbers down for any QB risk.

Jordan Addison

2025 Role & Results

Career-Low Production

Addison wasn’t a reliable fantasy piece, finishing with 42 catches, 610 yards, and 3 TDs. He hit 100 yards in two of his first three games but didn't reach 70 in any of his remaining 11.

That led to a WR45 finish in total PPR points and WR46 in points per game. Addison supplied one top-12 finish, two more top-24 weeks, and seven finishes outside the top-36.

Still in A Distant No. 2 Role

Addison remained in the No. 2 role, with his 17.4% target share trailing Justin Jefferson’s 28.2% in their 14 shared games. That followed a similar 2024 split: 27.3% for Jefferson vs. 19.0% for Addison.

Addison predictably ranked second among Vikings in red-zone usage, too. His 18.3% red-zone target share trailed Jefferson’s 23.9% and ranked 51st among all pass catchers.

Efficiency Wasn't on His Side

There’s not much to like here.

Among 52 WRs with 70+ targets, Addison ranked:

• 11th in yards per catch
• 22nd in yards per target
• 42nd in catch rate
• 42nd in yards per route run
• 47th in targets per route run
• 52nd in drop rate

The shaky hands hurt, but Addison also ranked 38th in catchable-target rate at 72.6%, so the blame doesn’t fall entirely on him.

Three QBs Combine For Bottom-Barrel Production

The Vikings didn’t provide a ripe environment for production, finishing 30th in total plays and 24th in situation-neutral pace. They added finishes of 30th in time of possession, 30th in plays, and 32nd in third-down conversion rate. That helped limit this unit to 20.2 points per game, seventh-fewest in the league.

QB play really bottomed out. J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer combined for 164.8 yards and 1.05 TDs per game.

An Injury-Free 2025

Addison’s three missed games resulted from a suspension, not an injury. 

He did sit out two games to open 2024 with an ankle injury. Otherwise, he’s avoided injury-related absences in the NFL.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Vikings Bolster WR Corps

Addison returns to a familiar role: WR2 behind Justin Jefferson.

"I view Jordan as one of the top-tier, quote-unquote, if you want to call him, No. 2s in the league,” HC Kevin O’Connell said in April. “And that's not in any way, shape or form negative when you're talking about that other guy being Justin Jefferson.”

In May, Minnesota upgraded its WR corps with free agent Jauan Jennings. The former 49er compiled 4.4 catches, 53.9 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game over the past two years. HC Kevin O’Connell praised Jennings’ ability to beat man coverage, make contested catches, and create yards after the catch.

Jennings will replace Jalen Nailor, who averaged only 3.1 targets per game in 2025.

Our projections have Jennings for a bit more -- 4.5 targets per game -- potentially enough to limit Addison’s impact. O’Connell could elevate his use of 3-WR sets, pulling TE2 Josh Oliver off the field more in favor of Jennings. Such a move would increase Addison's target competition. 

Just note that Oliver is a valued piece of this offense after signing a three-year deal last June with $19.9 million in guarantees. Oliver wasn’t on the roster when O’Connell used “11” personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) at his highest rate:

• fourth in 2022 (73.4%)
• 13th in 2023 (64.2%)
• 22nd in 2024 (57.2%)
• 10th in 2025 (63.8%)

Jennings is clearly more accomplished than past No. 3s Nailor and K.J. Osborn, and that adds some risk to Addison’s 2026 role.

Murray Looks Like a Questionable Fit for Addison

The Vikings signed veteran QB Kyler Murray, who's the favorite to start over J.J. McCarthy.

Murray lasted only five games last year before a foot injury sent him to IR. His 161-attempt sample turned up a conservative style with a low 6.3-yard average depth of target, but he converted that into the fifth-best adjusted completion rate among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts. 

The aDOT followed seasons with higher marks of 7.4 (2024) and 7.5 (2023), but Murray has underwhelmed as a deep-ball thrower in recent seasons. Murray ranked 34th among 50 QBs in adjusted completion rate on deep balls in 2024, then slipped to 36th among 46 qualifiers in 2025.

That doesn’t help Addison, who has become more downfield-driven with rising aDOTs of 12.5, 14.1, and 14.5 yards across his three seasons.

Murray is still an overall upgrade on McCarthy, but he doesn’t solve Addison’s biggest problem: a target share that’s unlikely to climb much.

The Coaching Staff Looks Like an Ally

There’s no concern here. 

The Vikings return O’Connell and OC Wes Phillips, a tandem with a resume of leaning pass. They’ve finished fifth, second, 20th, and 13th in pass rate. Even with the awful QB setup in 2025, the Vikings ranked a mid-pack 19th in situation-neutral pass rate.

This is the same staff that helped revive Sam Darnold’s career only two seasons ago. His 2024 turned up strong finishes in yards per attempt (7.9) and TD rate (6.4%). Murray’s unlikely to reach those levels, but this staff should be able to leverage his talent.

The Ceiling Case Requires Jefferson to Miss Games

Addison doesn’t have access to a realistic ceiling beyond WR3 range if this offense stays intact. If Jefferson misses time, though, Addison would likely see enough work to enter the WR2 mix. Just note: Jefferson has missed games in only one of six NFL seasons (2023).

Jauan Jennings

2025 Role & Results

Production Fueled By TDs

Jennings totaled 55 catches, 643 yards, and 9 TDs in 15 games. Only five WRs scored more TDs last season.

Those TDs did the heavy lifting, because Jennings averaged just 3.6 catches and 42.8 yards per game. That left him WR31 in both PPR points and points per game; WR30 in half-PPR and WR27 in half-PPR points per game. 

Jennings delivered two top-12 weeks, four more top-24 finishes, and three others inside the top 36. His worst outings came early in the season while he played through injury, but he rebounded to finish WR38 or better in each of the final nine games.

Thriving in the Red Zone

Jennings wasn’t a high-volume target earner, even with injuries around him and his own injury issues factoring in. He still finished with just a 17.8% target share in 15 active games, 40th among WRs.

Jennings’ red-zone usage stood out. His 22.95% target share ranked 14th among WRs and helped produce seven of his nine TDs.

Jennings Wasn't a Standout With Efficiency

Among 52 WRs with 70+ targets in 2025, Jennings displayed unhelpful efficiency:

• catch rate (28th)
• targets per route run (37th)
• yards per target (38th)
• yards after catch per reception (40th)
• yards per route run (43rd)

49ers Needed Him to Step Up

Jennings’ volume benefited from the offense shedding Deebo Samuel and missing George Kittle for six games, Ricky Pearsall for eight, and Brandon Aiyuk for all of them. 

The 49ers also supplied a solid offensive environment, despite the tough injury luck. They finished:

• fifth in passing yards
• 10th in pass attempts
• 10th in total plays

Injuries Played a Major Role

Jennings missed minicamp with a calf injury, then aggravated the injury in training camp. He made it back just before Week 1, but that wasn’t the end of his injury troubles. 

Jennings also left Week 1 with a shoulder injury. He returned in Week 2 only to pick up an ankle injury that, with the shoulder, cost him Week 3.

He later missed a Week 5 Thursday-nighter with ankle and rib injuries. Jennings said after Week 6 that he played through broken ribs and two ankle sprains.

That followed two missed games in 2024 due to a hip injury.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

No Longer a Starting WR

Jennings lingered on the open market for almost two months before landing a one-year deal with the Vikings, and his $8 million base salary ranks just 44th among WRs, per Spotrac. That doesn’t point to a fantasy-friendly role.

Instead, Jennings is expected to slide into the No. 3 WR role previously occupied by Jalen Nailor. The new Raider leaves behind 53 targets on a 10.3% share. 

Don’t expect him to match the 6.7 targets per game he averaged in San Francisco over the past two seasons. With Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison still ahead of him, our 14% target-share projection leaves Jennings at just 4.5 targets per game, weak volume for fantasy.

Murray a Clear Downgrade on Purdy

The Vikings signed veteran Kyler Murray, who's the favorite to start over J.J. McCarthy.

Murray lasted only five games last year before a foot injury sent him to injured reserve. His 161-attempt sample turned up a conservative style with a low 6.3-yard average depth of target, but he converted that into the fifth-best adjusted completion rate among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts. He ranked 13th in the same sample in catchable throw rate -- 76.4% -- just ahead of Matthew Stafford.

The QB switch is a positive for the Vikings compared to 2025. But it’s likely a downgrade for Jennings. Brock Purdy has proven better as a passer, topping Murray in career yards per attempt (8.6 to 7.0), completion rate (67.9 to 67.1), and passing success rate (52.4% to 47.3%).

How Much Will Jennings See the Field?

The Vikings have shown a willingness to tilt toward the pass under HC Kevin O’Connell and OC Wes Phillips.

They’ve finished fifth, second, 20th, and 13th in pass rate since 2022. Even with the awful QB setup in 2025, the Vikings ranked a mid-pack 19th in situation-neutral pass rate.

There’s also a history of O’Connell’s Vikings using 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) at an above-average rate. Here’s how they’ve ranked over the past four seasons:

• fourth in 2022 (73.4%)
• 13th in 2023 (64.2%)
• 22nd in 2024 (57.2%)
• 10th in 2025 (63.8%)

O’Connell praised Jennings’ skill set earlier this offseason, even complimenting his work as a blocker. So the Vikings could lean on 3-WR sets again, but there’s also a potential limiting factor here. The Vikings return a full-time starter in TE T.J. Hockenson, who’s looking to overcome two straight seasons disrupted by injury. The Vikings also return TE Josh Oliver for his fourth season, meaning he arrived just after that 2022 peak in O’Connell’s 3-WR usage.

Their ability to mix and match personnel may add volatility to Jennings’ weekly production.

A Downgrade in Landing Spot

Jennings’ peak fantasy seasons came with strong QB efficiency, San Francisco’s typically high-level offensive efficiency, and elevated target volume.

Minnesota’s setup with Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, and Murray makes both tougher to project. That leaves Jennings more likely to help the Vikings than your fantasy lineup.

T.J. Hockenson

2025 Role & Results

A Frustrating Fantasy TE

Hockenson managed 51 catches, 438 yards, and 3 TDs in 15 games. He topped 50 yards only twice.

Hockenson finished as the TE26 in PPR and half-PPR leagues. He sat 28th in half-PPR points per game; 29th in PPR PPG.

The 29-year-old posted three top-12 PPR finishes, including a season-best TE5 game in Week 3, with Jordan Addison suspended. The downside appeared often, though, with eight finishes at TE20 or worse.

Snaps and Routes Deliver. But Targets ... Not So Much

Hockenson’s issue wasn’t getting on the field. In 15 games, he ranked 15th among TEs in route rate (72.7%) and 16th in snap share (78.3%).

Hockenson just didn’t earn fantasy-friendly volume. His 15.1% target share tied for 20th at the position. And he wasn’t a major factor in the red zone, where his 15.5% target share tied Jalen Nailor for third on the Vikings and ranked 21st among TEs.

Nothing to Like in His Efficiency Metrics

Hockenson’s frustrating season turned up mostly underwhelming efficiency marks.

Among 49 TEs with 30+ targets, he finished:

• 16th in catch rate
• 39th in targets per route run
• 39th in yards after catch per reception
• 42nd in yards per route run
• 42nd in yards per catch

Just don’t pin all of the blame on the TE.

QB Play Drops Sharply

The Vikings’ QB play regressed significantly after a breakout 2024 from Sam Darnold. J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer combined for 164.8 yards and 1.05 TDs per game.

The team finished 30th in time of possession, 30th in plays, and 32nd in third-down conversion rate. That helped limit this unit to 20.2 points per game, seventh-fewest in the league.

Hockenson Hasn't Been the Same Since 2023

Hockenson started hot in Minnesota, averaging 5.6 receptions and 58.5 yards per game across his first two Vikings seasons. 

But a major knee injury and the loss of Kirk Cousins have dragged his per-game numbers down to 3.7 catches and 35.7 yards over the past two seasons. That’s pushed him from a top-5 fantasy TE to an unreliable streamer.

Injuries Remain a Factor

Hockenson missed the final two games of 2025 with a shoulder injury. 

He suffered an ACL and MCL tear in December 2023, limiting him to 10 games in 2024.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Back in the Lead TE Role

The Vikings return Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, their top target-earners from 2025. We project that duo to combine for 49% of the team’s total targets.

Jalen Nailor moved on in free agency, and he’ll leave behind 53 targets. But the Vikings replaced him with WR Jauan Jennings.

Jennings broke out with a 77-975-6 line in 2024 for a 49ers offense that missed Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey for most of the season. Jennings’ production dipped last season -- 55-643-9 in 15 games -- but he looks like a clear upgrade on Nailor.

Our takeaway: The Vikings’ actions and current depth say they’re not expecting a major statistical rebound from Hockenson.

Murray Looks Like a Fine Fit

The Vikings signed veteran QB Kyler Murray, who's the favorite to start over J.J. McCarthy.

Murray lasted only five games last year before a foot injury sent him to IR. His 161-attempt sample turned up a conservative style with a low 6.3-yard average depth of target, but he converted that into the fifth-best adjusted completion rate among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts. His aDOT was higher in 2023 and 2024, though still below league average at 7.5 and 7.4.

A more conservative approach would help Hockenson, whose 5.2-yard aDOT last season marked a career low by 2.3 yards.

Minnesota’s O-line should remain in good shape with four starters returning from a productive group. The lone concern sits at center after Ryan Kelly retired. He made it through only eight games last season but still ranked fourth among 59 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade. Blake Brandel, the expected replacement, finished 23rd in that same sample.

This Coaching Staff Leans Pass

Hockenson enters his fourth full season with HC Kevin O’Connell and OC Wes Phillips. 

This group has tilted toward the pass in four years together, finishing fifth, second, 20th, and 13th in pass rate. Even with the awful QB setup in 2025, the Vikings ranked a mid-pack 19th in situation-neutral pass rate.

The QB outlook improves with Murray. He should give Hockenson an efficiency boost and a chance to become a more usable streamer.

A Crowded Situation

Jefferson, Addison, and Jennings crowd the target picture, which makes Hockenson’s scoring efficiency even more important. That’s been a weakness, with his career TD rate sitting at just 6%.