Don't Trust the Box Score: Colston Loveland's Goose Egg Hid a Dominant Day
The Box Score Lies. The Film Doesn't.
Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use advanced analytics and film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Every week, I’ll bring my 22 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than their stats indicate.
Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears
Staring at the 0 on your roster probably made you want to vomit, but don’t panic yet. Loveland’s film and his underlying usage show that he’s on the verge of a huge fantasy performance.
The most important thing: Loveland was running routes, usually from the slot. He led Bears WRs and TEs in snaps (65) and routes (35).
Loveland actually led all Week 1 TEs with a 90% route rate.
The Bears offense performed well in general, scoring 59 points with Caleb Williams throwing for 269 yards and 2 TDs. Some of that will come Loveland’s way moving forward, and the film showed Loveland almost had a big game despite drawing only 2 targets.
Let’s dig in.
Loveland gets a red-zone snap out wide on this play opposite a stack of WRs. The Panthers bring a five-man blitz, leading to man coverage on Loveland in the end zone.
Loveland does his job. He gets inside leverage in front of the defender to box out for what would be an easy catch on an accurate pass.
Williams identifies the coverage pre-snap, making Loveland the first read. He just places the ball too far in front and Loveland can’t even dive to grab it.
Just a slightly better pass saves Loveland’s fantasy day.
Williams himself even regretted missing this pass: “There was one that should’ve been a touchdown to Colston that I missed. Threw it a little too far in front of him. Just small things like that. You don’t get those opportunities too often -- you get the perfect coverage with the perfect route and so gotta hit those.”
Loveland’s other target should have produced a long gain.
He lined up in a stack on the right side. Loveland’s route was a Cover-3 buster, the exact defense the Panthers were running. He lodges himself behind the second level but in front of the secondary.
Loveland works his way across the field, but Williams slings it behind him. That leads to an incompletion instead of a big yardage chunk.
Loveland shows his savvy with his route depth, in sync with Williams identifying the defensive alignment pre-snap. I don’t think this would have turned into a long TD, but Loveland would have picked up lots of yardage after the catch.
The deep targets for Loveland bode well for his yardage efficiency, when the accuracy improves.
Loveland also got open on plays where he wasn’t targeted.
The Bears stacked Loveland in “13” personnel (one RB, three TEs) with Jahdae Walker as the lone WR on this play. Loveland ran a short curl against the Cover-2 zone. He found the hole between the CB flat zone and the LB.
This should have been an easy read for Williams after identifying the defense, but he felt some pressure and scrambled instead.
Loveland played well, winning in both zone and man coverage. The production should come … but could his QB hold him back?
Is Caleb Williams the Problem?
Most of Loveland’s issues were thanks to Williams. The QB threw inaccurately on both of Loveland’s targets and missed multiple open reads to Loveland.
It worked out for the Bears offense scoring 59 points, but Williams' inaccuracy and missed reads certainly hurt Loveland’s production this week.
That remains the biggest concern for Loveland (and possibly the rest of the Bears receiving weapons). Williams’ raw production was fine, but tougher defenses could give Williams even more issues hitting his WRs and TEs consistently.
HC Ben Johnson’s offense appears inventive enough to overcome Williams’ inconsistent throwing, but expect a few weeks like this where Williams’ raw passing leads to underperformance.
Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Last year, the Seahawks deployed a split backfield, with Kenneth Walker taking early-down work and Zach Charbonnet leading passing situations and goal-line duty.
Seattle lost Walker to the Chiefs and drafted Price in Round 1, surely hoping he’d become their lead RB. Charbonnet started the season on PUP, affording Price the chance to lead immediately.
New OC Brian Fleury kept the RB roles intact, though, with Price playing the Walker early-down role while George Holani took the Charbonnet role on third downs and in the 2-minute drill.
That led to Price only rushing 10 times for 52 yards along with 2 catches for 6 yards. But the film says he’s ready for more work.
Price takes an off-tackle carry, but the Patriots shift to contain the outside. He cuts back, even before the hole fully develops in the middle of the O-line. That anticipation leads to a huge hole in the middle, which Price bursts through for 13 yards.
Good vision by Price with a clean cutback and no wasted movement created the big yardage. Those types of rushes led to Price becoming a first-round pick.
One knock on Price’s prospect profile was his lack of college receiving. Price only caught 15 passes over his three college seasons. But the Seahawks targeted him twice in Week 1, and Price looked like a veteran catching the football.
Price showed savvy on this catch in the flat. He positioned himself while the ball was in the air to move forward while making the catch. That gave Price momentum into the open field.
Price fails to evade the defender which limited him to a 2-yard reception. But he showed pass-catching prowess with how he attacked the ball in the air.
That bodes well for the future.
Price also showed good burst on outside runs.
This stretch play was well blocked, but Price wasted no movement or steps picking up major yardage. He transitioned smoothly upfield while sticking tight to the O-line with his first step.
That allowed Price to adjust his angle toward the sideline, anticipating Jaxon Smith-Njigba holding his block. Price gets knocked out of bounds, but he picks up 12 yards on this outside run.
Price looked like the best active runner on the team while Holani struggled with his burst and vision. Price’s impressive film looked similar to Walker last year, a player who deserves more touches. The Seahawks' reliance on specific RB roles may limit Price’s upside, but the film shows a runner ready to excel.
More touches for Price could lead to some big fantasy performances this season.
Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers
I have been a huge Coker fan since before he even entered the NFL. He was my sleeper pick in our 2024 Rookie Draft Guide. That love paid off this past week when Coker led all WRs with 33.8 PPR points, catching 8 of 9 targets for 138 yards and 2 TDs.
But as much as I like Coker, the film doesn’t scream top-12 fantasy WR going forward.
Let’s review.
Coker ran a number of short routes, including outs and drags that required him to break a tackle (or multiple) to gain yards. That often worked in Week 1, but this play shows the typical outcome.
Coker runs an out route and attempts a hesitation move so that the defender will zoom past him on the tackle. Bears S Cam Lewis doesn’t miss, though, and knocks Coker down with his arm.
This play worked out for Lewis and the Bears, but that wasn’t typical. Throughout the game, Bears defenders took really bad angles trying to tackle Coker (and other Panthers).
That often led to plays like the next clip.
This is a similar route with Coker running an out. He catches the ball and stops with another hesitation move. The defender took a wide angle and fell right past Coker, who went in for the TD.
A better defender could have looked to the QB and potentially even jumped the pass for a TD going the other way. At the very least, he should have made a more direct line to Coker to cover either an inside or outside move for an easy short tackle.
Coker does stop quickly and deserves some credit, but chalk this TD up to poor defense instead of an amazing play by Coker.
Coker’s other score came from 51 yards out after he won on a streak. Coker shows good burst and a second gear off the line, but defensive mistakes again create the TD.
The coverage CB turns inside and takes a step to almost do a complete circle to cover Coker. He catches his mistake and tries to turn the correct way, but it’s too late. Coker’s past him.
Poor fundamentals (or perhaps thinking he had more deep help) led to this TD more than Coker’s pure athleticism and skill.
The other concern for Coker is that QB Bryce Young will still make mistakes.
I watched Young thoroughly in 2024, when he was benched, and believed he still sported some starter potential. I still have that belief … but Young makes terrible decisions in every game.
Coker lines up in a stack on this play and crosses the field with a step on his defender. He’s open, but Young feels the pressure too early, climbs the pocket too quickly, and launches the ball while on the move -- well behind Coker. That leads to an INT instead of giving Coker a chance to make the catch.
An NFL No. 2, Not a Fantasy WR1
Overall, Coker’s usage was strong. He led Panthers WRs snaps (57) and routes run (40). Coker’s role in “11” (one RB, one TE) and “12” (one RB, two TEs) personnel appears secure, so expect plenty of snaps this season.
He’s a solid athlete who has excellent route fundamentals. Coker is a solid NFL No. 2 WR. That makes him a good player but not necessarily one that will be a consistent starter for your fantasy team. We need to see Coker produce against stronger defenses and Young limit mistakes before we can trust the wideout on a weekly basis.
His box score certainly benefited from a Bears defense that lacked even basic football fundamentals. I worry about Coker’s production against better defenses, though. That worry builds with Young being prone to bad decisions and mistakes.
