Don't Trust The Box Score: Should You Bench Lamar Jackson?

Trust The Film

Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson sits amid his first-ever three-game streak without a passing TD. He hasn’t ranked higher than QB25 in any of those games. But is he playing as poorly as the box score indicates?

Yes. 

You can trust the box score in this case. Jackson struggled against one of the worst defenses in the NFL (Bengals) last week. He went 17 of 32 for 246 yards and an INT, adding 6-27 on the ground.

Jackson has been making amateur mistakes. He is missing open WRs, failing to outrun defenders, and struggling to move cleanly in the pocket. That isn’t typical of the two-time NFL MVP, so let’s take a look at the film to find out why.

On this play, Jackson steps up and freelances as the defense closes in. He gets out of the pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, and identifies Zay Flowers breaking toward open space.

Jackson throws on the run, a strength throughout his NFL career. Instead of hitting Flowers in stride, though, the pass ends up behind the receiver. A potential TD becomes an incompletion as Flowers can’t adjust while taking a hit.

Jackson typically uses the momentum from being on the move to plant his foot and drive the ball to the spot. This throw shows little drive, and his upper body appears to work independently of his lower body.

The result is a pass that lands behind Flowers instead of in front of him.

On this play, Jackson has a route he has hit hundreds of times. He takes his drop and immediately sees Mark Andrews, his first read, open on the out route.

He steps with too wide a base and opens his hips too far to the outside. The ball floats past Andrews for another missed opportunity.

Here, Jackson takes his drop and has two open options: the in-breaking route and the checkdown. He doesn’t see either and panics despite the pocket holding up. He moves forward and the pocket collapses into a sack.

His first read may have been one of the deeper routes, even with the defense playing two deep. Even so, he had time to move to the checkdown and pick up a few yards. He appears to be trying to force big plays instead of taking what’s available.

On this read option, Jackson makes the wrong read of Edge Joseph Ossai. He anticipates Ossai crashing down on the RB, giving him an outside lane. Instead, Ossai chases Jackson.

We have seen Jackson run away from LBs and still turn wrong reads into gains. Here, he can’t shake Ossai on the edge, allowing S Geno Stone to close and push him out of bounds.

Jackson’s lack of acceleration and speed to cleanly beat Ossai and set up a one-on-one with Stone is concerning for his rushing potential.

Jackson Has Clearly Declined

Jackson’s issues are mostly physical. His lack of drive from his legs is leading to inaccurate passes that drift out of reach. Though he has made some mental mistakes, his footwork and lower-body power appear to be the primary problem, along with reduced explosion and speed.

A possible explanation is the series of lower-body injuries that have landed him on the injury report in recent weeks: 

• hamstring
• knee
• ankle
• toe

If his lower body isn’t at full strength, that could explain the sloppy mechanics and lack of drive.

If that’s leading to a fantasy dud against one of the league’s worst defenses, it becomes a major concern for the rest of the season. He could get healthier and rebound, but his current play makes him a QB to sit if you have a better option.

Oronde Gadsden II, TE, Los Angeles Chargers

Gadsden broke out in Week 6 with a PPR TE13 finish. Then he delivered rankings of TE10 or better each of the next three weeks. 

The past three weeks, however, have all found him outside the top 24 and falling short of three targets. That included a mere 1-27-0 receiving line on two targets last week.

Those two targets ranked fifth on the team behind Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Tre Harris, and Quentin Johnston. But Gadsden’s film shows a player still finding ways to get open. He also contributes even when he isn’t targeted.

On this play, Gadsden runs a clean deep route. He turns back to Justin Herbert as he passes the LB in zone coverage. This allows Gadsden to split the defenders and make a clean catch through contact.

Gadsden narrowly misses a TD but executes the long catch well.

On this play, Gadsden runs an in route. He makes a sharp cut to shake one LB in zone coverage, then begins to settle as the other LB closes in.

Herbert throws slightly to Gadsden’s left, moving him into contact as he tries to secure the catch. He ends up dropping his only other target of the game.

This play shows how the Chargers used Gadsden throughout the game against the Raiders’ zone coverage. The goal was to pull a LB off the second level to free an underneath option.

Gadsden runs a post at the MLB, who drops with him as Gadsden enters the safety’s area and draws double coverage. That opens Johnston on an in route for a TD.

Why Gadsden’s Breakout May Be a Year Away

Gadsden may sit lower in the target pecking order, but he is still playing well. The crowded target distribution makes him a shaky weekly start, and Justin Herbert’s injury could drag down the passing game.

The passing volume has also reduced lately for the Chargers. They haven’t topped 20 passes in either of the past two games. That doesn’t bode well for Gadsden either.

His strong film work may not change his numbers this season, but it makes him a good candidate to break out next year with Keenan Allen likely gone. Keep an eye on his ADP heading into next season.

RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos

Harvey headlined this column in October with a breakout game that looked worse on film than in the box score. That trend continued this past week as he went 13-35-2 on the ground and 3-27-0 through the air on four targets against Washington.

His 2 TDs once again propped up his fantasy output, while the film shows a player trying to bounce everything outside instead of reading his blocks.

On this play, Harvey runs an inside zone. The O-line opens a hole inside, which should lead him to cut through for a solid gain.

Instead, he bounces the run outside and is swallowed up for no gain. Rather than follow the design, Harvey tries to create a big play and fails. This issue shows up repeatedly.

This play mirrors the last one. Harvey goes east to west instead of attacking up the middle as scripted. LB Bobby Wagner fills the hole, but if Harvey makes him miss, he has a clear runway for a significant gain.

Instead, his outside attempt gets stuffed for a 2-yard gain by multiple defenders.

One positive in Harvey’s game is his receiving ability. He shows soft hands on this catch in the flat and has a chance for a big play if he breaks CB Jeremy Reaves’ tackle attempt.

Harvey tries to run through Reaves but falls on contact.

Harvey Keeps Chasing Big Plays Instead of Making Them

Harvey has not progressed since I evaluated his film more than a month ago. He continues to hunt for big outside runs instead of taking the lanes in front of him. On the ground, he remains TD-dependent.

His receiving offers some PPR value, but he hasn’t shown the open-field ability to make second- or third-level defenders miss. He shouldn’t be relied upon for a championship run, either in fantasy or for the Broncos.

Next Up

Streaming Defense Week 15: Jaguars Poised To Ground The Jets

Next Article  

Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.