Brian Thomas Jr. Ready to Bounce Back ... But How Far?

What They're Saying

Thomas: "It was just adversity, [which] gives you a lot to grow from. I wouldn't call it frustrating. I mean, it just gives you something to build off. You know what you've got to do, and you know what you got to do to sustain [success]."

DiRocco: "[The Jaguars] altered the way they used Thomas, using him more on the outside beginning in Week 13 after he missed three games with an ankle injury, and his production increased. Thomas may have a somewhat different role, and his stats may not reach what they were in 2024, but he is going to be a key piece of head coach Liam Coen's offense."

More from DiRocco: "Thomas' [early-season] struggles spurred the Jaguars to make a switch and run the pass offense through rookie Travis Hunter."

GM James Gladstone: "With Jakobi's arrival, it certainly allowed B.T. to continue to level up in areas that fit within the system itself that were fit for his skill set and allowed him to be the best version of himself down that back stretch of the season."

2026 Fantasy Football Impact

First of all, I don't at all believe that Thomas didn't find 2025 frustrating. It's certainly good that he's focused on what he can learn from the experience and that all involved expect him to hit 2026 more comfortable. But that was a rough year.

We're spinning forward now, though, rather than rehashing. So we need to figure out what we can actually expect.

If we just look at that aforementioned stretch from Week 13 through the playoff loss, Thomas drew a mere 15% share of Jaguars targets. That trailed:

• WR Parker Washington (25%)
• WR Jakobi Meyers (23%)
• TE Brenton Strange (17%)

From Week 13 through Week 18, Thomas tied for just 43rd among all WRs in expected PPR points per game and tied for 39th in actual points per game.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Thomas' target share climb a bit from that 15%. But the situation remains crowded, and Coen has given no indication that he erred in not targeting Thomas more late in the year.

For now, Thomas looks like a low-WR3 with upside (and risk) for 2026 drafting.

Best Ball Impact

Thomas leads Jaguars WRs in early best ball ADP for Underdog Fantasy drafts. His WR31 price looks OK, but he's someone to mix into your drafting rather than a specific target at that price.

Parker Washington checks in next at WR36, with Jakobi Meyers down at WR40. That makes Meyers pretty easily my top target among the group.

From his Week 10 arrival to the end of the regular season, Meyers ranked 20th among WRs in expected PPR points per game (27th in actual). That jumped to 13th from Week 13 on.

According to Pro Football Focus, Meyers led Washington by 3.0 expected points per game over that stretch (despite trailing him by 2.7 actual points per game).

Meyers also brings a longer history of useful fantasy production than either Thomas or Washington.

All three remain worth working into your best ball portfolio, though. We're dealing with just small samples of the trio working together.

Dynasty Impact

I'm not excited to either buy or sell Thomas in dynasty right now.

Buying would be OK if you find a fed-up manager viewing Thomas as a bust off last year's numbers rather than retaining hope for the upside of 2024.

If you already have Thomas, though, you're probably better off holding him at least into the coming season.

Even if the former first-round pick never gets back to the 2024 heights, I'd expect him to improve on last year's WR46 finish in PPR points per game.