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Can Alvin Kamara's efficiency rebound with lower touch volume?

By Jared Smola | Updated on Thu, 13 Jul 2023, 2:27 PM EDT

The biggest question facing Saints RB Alvin Kamara for 2023 is the risk of suspension stemming from his still-lingering assault case. We'll almost certainly be waiting until at least August for any news on that front. But what can we expect whenever he is on the field? The veteran showed declines in both rushing and receiving efficiency over the past two years. Kamara rebounded some from a career-low 3.7 yards per carry in 2021 to 4.0 last year. Though his 14.9 carries per game (down from 18.5 in 2021) might still be more than ideal. Kamara finished each of the past two years 40th or worse in Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA and DYAR. His yards after contact per attempt matched the lowest rate of his career and ranked 46th among 61 RBs with 70+ carries, according to Pro Football Focus. Kamara also set career lows in PFF receiving grade each of the past two years, though even last season found him a decent 23rd among 61 RBs with 20+ targets. Volume has kept Kamara productive. He finished each of the past five years among the top 11 RBs in opportunity share (carries plus targets). The Saints signed RB Jamaal Williams and then drafted RB Kendre Miller in Round 3, so we should expect some dip in Kamara's touch volume. They also spent big, though, on QB Derek Carr. So Kamara could make up for any loss in touches if his efficiency rebounds, in an offense with room to rebound. An RB3-level ADP makes Kamara an intriguing bet for best ball drafts -- and a potential steal if he avoids suspension. Read more about him and the other Saints RBs in our 2023 RB rankings.

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Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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