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Mid-August ADP Risers and Fallers

By Jared Smola 2:08pm EDT 8/17/17


You fantasy football folks are nuts. You formed nearly 1,000 MFL10 leagues just through the first 15 days of August. Nuts.

It does give us some nice ADP data to dig into, though. Let’s take a look at 28 guys who have moved significantly up or down in ADP over the past 2 weeks.

To dig into the data yourself, check out the FREE MFL10 ADP Explorer.


Risers

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

Early-August ADP: 21.9

Mid-August ADP: 19.7

Gurley has climbed a couple of spots into the 2.08 pick of 12-team drafts. He should theoretically find more running room with WR Sammy Watkins stretching defenses, but Gurley’s overall supporting cast remains a concern.


Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers

Early-August ADP: 37.4

Mid-August ADP: 31.6

McCaffrey’s ADP has yo-yoed. Up, then down, and now up again. He flashed a bit in Carolina’s preseason opener, carrying 7 times for 33 yards. But he split 1st-team work with Jonathan Stewart. His value is a bit stretched at this current price tag.


Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings

Early-August ADP: 45.3

Mid-August ADP: 36.8

Cook, unlike fellow rookie McCaffrey, has seen his draft cost steadily rise all summer. He jumped up almost a full round just over the last 2 weeks. Cook is now going 16th among RBs — 3 spots higher than he sits in our rankings.


Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers

Early-August ADP: 52.1

Mid-August ADP: 44.5

Hyde was a “Faller” in our July ADP report, sinking from pick 46 to pick 53. He’s made that up and then some, now coming off the board 44th or 45th overall. Both his HC and GM have talked him up since camp opened, and he appears locked in as San Francisco’s lead back.


Rob Kelley, RB, Redskins

Early-August ADP: 130.6

Mid-August ADP: 108.4

Kelley was going more than 3 rounds later than teammate Samaje Perine just 2 weeks ago. Now he’s going a round ahead of him. That’s the right move, with Kelley seemingly locked in as Washington’s lead back at least to open the season.


Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys

Early-August ADP: 174.1

Mid-August ADP: 114.2

McFadden has been picked in 161 drafts at an ADP of 10.07 since Ezekiel Elliott’s 6-game suspension was announced. He’s gone 42nd among RBs, on average, over that time. It’s a fair price for a guy who’s in line for 6 games as the lead back behind a strong offensive line.


Thomas Rawls, RB, Seahawks

Early-August ADP: 151.5

Mid-August ADP: 118.6

Rawls has shot up almost 3 full rounds over the past 2 weeks. He’s still a solid shot at his late 10th round ADP. Rawls has been splitting 1st-team work with Eddie Lacy in training camp and got the start in the preseason opener.


Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers

Early-August ADP: 161.2

Mid-August ADP: 138.5

The rookie has been working in with the starters a bit in training camp. Ty Montgomery played all 10 snaps with the 1st-team offense in the preseason opener, though. Williams remains just a late-round flier and will be an avoid if his price climbs much higher.


Rex Burkhead, RB, Patriots

Early-August ADP: 191.2

Mid-August ADP: 167.3

Drafters are starting to factor in the chance that Burkhead emerges as New England’s lead back this season. Mike Gillislee’s hamstring injury certainly doesn’t hurt Burkhead’s outlook.


Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers

Early-August ADP: 68.5

Mid-August ADP: 57.1

With the fat jokes behind him, Benjamin is climbing draft boards. He’s now going 29th among WRs. That’s a few spots higher than he sits in our rankings.


Robby Anderson, WR, Jets

Early-August ADP: 219.1

Mid-August ADP: 156.8

There was a time this guy wasn’t even guaranteed a roster spot. Now he’s the Jets’ presumed #1 WR. Drafters still aren’t showing him much love, though, making him WR61 in ADP. Anderson is worth a look in that range.


Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions

Early-August ADP: 215.1

Mid-August ADP: 166.0

The rookie’s ADP has rocketed up since the beginning of the month — and it’s probably not done climbing after his impressive preseason debut. We’ll see if he moves into overvalued range. He’s still fine now at his WR63 ADP.


Devin Funchess, WR, Panthers

Early-August ADP: 206.7

Mid-August ADP: 184.6

Funchess is locked in as Carolina’s #2 WR, especially with rookie Curtis Samuel missing a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. Still just 23 years old, Funchess presents some breakout potential this season. We like him at his 16th-round price tag.


Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles

Early-August ADP: 238.6

Mid-August ADP: 195.1

Agholor wasn’t even getting picked in the majority of drafts at the start of this month. Now he’s a 17th-rounder. Philly’s slot receiver makes sense at that price.


Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Jets

Early-August ADP: 214.1

Mid-August ADP: 193.5

This sleeper is awaking from his slumber. But Seferian-Jenkins remains well worth his current 17th-round price tag.



Fallers

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts

Early-August ADP: 73.0

Mid-August ADP: 77.7

Luck sunk from an ADP of 54 to 60 over the course of July and is down to 77.7 now. That’s the middle of the 7th round — and Luck is now going 6th among QBs, on average. That’s still a bit pricey for us, but he’s moving toward a range where he’d make sense.


Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys

Early-August ADP: 4.4

Mid-August ADP: 17.9

Zeke is going right around pick #18 — or 2.06 in a 12-team draft — since his 6-game suspension was announced. That’s a tad earlier than we’d recommend taking him. We prefer Rob Gronkowski, Dez Bryant and Todd Gurley, who are all going behind Elliott.


Mike Gillislee, RB, Patriots

Early-August ADP: 56.1

Mid-August ADP: 66.6

Drafters got ahead of themselves on Gillislee, pushing his ADP into the middle of the 5th round by the end of July. He’s fallen about a full round into the middle of the 6th now — although even that’s a little rich for a guy in the always-unpredictable Patriots backfield.


Samaje Perine, RB, Redskins

Early-August ADP: 93.3

Mid-August ADP: 119.5

The rookie has struggled with pass protection and ball security this month. He’s well behind Rob Kelley, who’s now going about a round ahead of Perine.


Joe Williams, RB, 49ers

Early-August ADP: 133.7

Mid-August ADP: 167.0

The Williams-could-be-the-Niners-starter buzz seems like forever ago now, doesn’t it? The rookie is seemingly battling just for a spot on the 46-man game day roster, while Carlos Hyde is entrenched as San Francisco’s starter.


Sammy Watkins, WR, Rams

Early-August ADP: 29.0

Mid-August ADP: 40.4

Drafters are discounting Watkins with his move to Los Angeles — but not enough. He’s coming off the board 20th among WRs, 6 spots higher than he sits in our updated WR rankings.


Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins

Early-August ADP: 38.7

Mid-August ADP: 46.0

Landry lost BFF Ryan Tannehill for the season but should still remain the #1 option in Miami’s passing game. He’s turned into a fine value as WR24 in ADP.


Donte Moncrief, WR, Colts

Early-August ADP: 66.0

Mid-August ADP: 74.2

Moncrief missed some time early this month with a shoulder injury. But it’s likely the uncertainty surrounding his QB that’s moving his ADP down. Moncrief is now coming off the board 36th among WRs.


Josh Doctson, WR, Redskins

Early-August ADP: 123.9

Mid-August ADP: 133.1

After an injury-wrecked rookie campaign, Doctson has missed a bunch of time this month with hamstring trouble. He’ll open the season no higher than 3rd on the depth chart.


Breshad Perriman, WR, Ravens

Early-August ADP: 155.1

Mid-August ADP: 170.5

Perriman can’t stay on the field. He’s been sidelined since August 1 with a hamstring injury, killing any shot he had to push Jeremy Maclin or Mike Wallace for early-season targets.


Tavon Austin, WR, Rams

Early-August ADP: 173.7

Mid-August ADP: 208.7

Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods are slated to start on the outside, and rookie Cooper Kupp looks like the favorite for slot duties. That’d reduce Austin to a situational/gadget player — which is exactly what he should be.


Laquon Treadwell, WR, Vikings

Early-August ADP: 218.8

Mid-August ADP: 230.2

Treadwell built some buzz this spring but has missed time in training camp (and the 1st preseason game) with a thigh injury. He’s been picked in less than half of MFL10 drafts over the past few days.


David Njoku, TE, Browns

Early-August ADP: 159.7

Mid-August ADP: 179.6

It’s been a quiet training camp for the 1st-round rookie — and he didn’t get any run with the starters in Cleveland’s preseason opener. Njoku is a poor bet for an early-season fantasy impact.


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