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Should you ignore Curtis Samuel's big day?

By Jared Smola | Updated on Fri, 24 Nov 2023, 11:39 AM EST
Curtis Samuel Headshot

Commanders WR Curtis Samuel racked up 9 receptions for 100 yards in Thursday's loss to the Cowboys. He drew 27.3% of the team's targets, accounted for 32.1% of the receptions, and delivered 33.3% of the yards. No teammate exceeded 5 catches or 52 yards in the game. The big receiving line followed consecutive games that Samuel finished with just 6 and 5 receiving yards. He has reached 50 yards five times now in 11 games. But should we just chalk Thursday's numbers up to variance? Samuel's not likely to deliver another stat line that big over his final four fantasy outings. But he can be a low-level starting option the rest of the way. Samuel had caught 4+ passes in five straight games before missing Week 9 with an injury. Samuel came back for the mere three receptions across two games before the big one against Dallas. The Cowboys have been tough in coverage but also play outside WRs tougher than slot WRs. Week 13 will bring a Miami defense that has fared better against slot WRs than outside but also been a positive matchup for opponent WRs overall. Miami's offensive scoring ability also gives that game shootout potential -- or a chance Washington is chasing once again. Either case would drive up passing volume. Washington gets its bye in Week 14. But then come two more opponents (Rams and Jets) that allow more production to slot WRs than outside. A Week 17 matchup with San Francisco doesn't look good for anyone. Though Samuel's short average target depth (6.4 yards) could help his volume in another matchup that's likely to find the Commanders trailing. He carries some low-level upside in deeper leagues, as a WR3 or PPR flex. Just don't overrate Samuel's production in Dallas.

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Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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