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Deebo Samuel bounces back; can he keep it up?

By Jared Smola | Updated on Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 8:40 AM EST
Deebo Samuel Headshot

Niners WR Deebo Samuel racked up a team-high 9 targets that converted into a 7-79 receiving line Thursday night against the Seahawks. Samuel’s lack of involvement since returning from his multi-week shoulder injury had been a concern (8 combined targets across weeks 10 and 11). Samuel now has four healthy games of 7+ targets, but also four in which he drew 4 targets or fewer. We'd certainly bet on him going higher than 4 targets per game the rest of the way. But Samuel will face weekly volume challenges. The 49ers rank last in the league at 28.1 pass attempts per game and continue to sport WR Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, and RB Christian McCaffrey. Samuel's remaining schedule ranks second-easiest for WRs per our adjusted fantasy points allowed, which obviously helps. Next week’s matchup vs. the Eagles looks particularly good. The Philly defense ranks fifth in passing yards allowed per game (248.1), and opposing QBs have posted the eighth-best passer rating (96.4) against them this season. The Eagles also play the run much tougher than the pass, which has motivated opponents to pass at the league's second-highest rate over expected. Samuel should sit comfortably inside our top 24 WRs across formats for that matchup. And he's likely to hover in that WR2 range the rest of the way.

Jared Smola Author Image
Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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