Don't overrate Xavier Worthy's record-setting Combine

Texas WR Xavier Worthy ran an official 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the Combine on Saturday, breaking WR John Ross' old record by one one-hundredth of a second. That followed a three-year college career that saw Worthy average a big 14.0 yards per catch, including 7.3 yards after the catch. He also impressed in Indianapolis with a 41-inch vertical and 131-inch broad jump. But the most important measurable might have been when Worthy weighed in at just 165 pounds. That was seven pounds lighter than his college listing and lands him in a bucket of players that rarely make significant fantasy impacts. In fact, Tank Dell and DeVonta Smith are the only sub-170-pound WRs since 2000 to reach 11 PPR points per game in a season. Of course, none of those light WRs were as fast as Worthy. And most didn't get first-round draft capital, as Worthy likely will after running the 4.21-second 40. His fantasy stock certainly gets a bump post-Combine. Just don't forget to factor his size into the evaluation.

The Chiefs selected Texas WR Xavier Worthy in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Worthy set the Combine record with a 4.21-second 40 time and plays to that speed on the field. He averaged 14.0 yards per reception for his college career, making big plays both downfield and after the catch (7.3 career YAC/reception). He’s also an impressive route runner. Worthy broke out as an 18-year-old true freshman, easily leading the Longhorns with 62 catches, 981 yards, and 12 TDs. A QB change and a fractured finger led to a dip in raw production in 2022, although Worthy still led Texas in all major receiving categories. He made it three straight seasons as Texas’ top receiver last year, despite the arrival of WR Adonai Mitchell. Not only did Worthy easily beat Mitchell in catches (75 to 55) and yards (1,014 to 845), but he also dusted him in advanced metrics like targets per route (0.25 to 0.17) and yards per route (2.14 to 1.72). The glaring concern with Worthy: He’s just 165 pounds. Only two WRs at 170 pounds or lighter – DeVonta Smith and Tank Dell – have reached 10 PPR points per game since 2000. Worthy, though, is just the third sub-170-pound WR since 2000 to be a top-50 pick in the draft (joining Smith and Dexter McCluster). His chances of success increase in Kansas City. The Chiefs are simply thin at WR, especially with Rashee Rice facing a multi-game suspension. Note that free-agent addition Marquise Brown signed a one-year deal. Worthy ultimately projects in WR5 range for early best ball drafters.