What does Nick Chubb's reworked 2024 deal tell us?

The Browns and RB Nick Chubb have agreed to a salary adjustment for 2024, the final year on his contract. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports that the change drops Chubb's cap hit from $15.85 million to $6.275 million -- with incentives that could bring his salary back up to $12.2 million. You could read this several different ways. It's positive that Cleveland didn't simply cut Chubb, which would have cost just $4 million in dead cap space, according to Spotrac. But Chubb's new salary knocks him to 11th among RBs in total money for 2024, behind Tony Pollard and Aaron Jones; barely ahead of Devin Singletary and Miles Sanders. Chubb no doubt believes he can achieve at least some of the performance incentives and drive that number back up. But it also appears he wasn't willing to test the open market for higher 2024 earnings. Ultimately, it's way too early for fantasy managers to know what we can expect from the veteran RB. Chubb's multi-ligament knee injury in September has required surgeries then and in November. We haven't seen much on his return timeline. The Browns, meanwhile, have added RBs D'Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines this offseason. Both signed small, one-year deals that don't come close to guaranteeing offensive roles. (Hines probably arrives to primarily return kicks.) But they join Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong as backfield insurance. We're staying away from Chubb at his RB27 best ball ADP, which still has him ahead of Javonte Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Zamir White, among others. The crowded depth chart behind Chubb also makes it a risky backfield for investing in backups.