Don’t Trust the Box Score: Deshaun Watson’s Back! (Kinda)
The Box Score Lies. The Film Doesn't.
Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use advanced analytics and film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Every week, I’ll bring my 22 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than their stats indicate.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
Watson’s seven starts in 2024 rank as the worst QB play I’ve seen from a starting NFL QB. He had limited mobility and threw only a few accurate passes among his 216 attempts. His 11.39 fantasy points per game ranked 31st.
A torn Achilles put Watson on the bench for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025.
Now Watson’s back in the starting role, and the production has jumped. He has scored 18.33 fantasy points per game and sits at QB14 for the season.
But I wanted to dig into his film from the past week to see if Watson’s playing better than in 2024. Or better yet: Could Watson be playing as well as he did early in his career?
In 2024, Watson would drop his eyes often when facing any pressure. That has not been a problem so far this season.
Pressure gets to Watson on this play, but he keeps his eyes downfield while evading it. His improved mobility has also been a big asset, especially for fantasy.
Watson avoids the pressure but doesn’t see an open WR, so he scrambles for 12 yards. He has averaged 35 yards per game through three weeks, the highest average since his 2017 rookie season.
That same mobility helped score this TD. Watson again keeps his eyes downfield when pressured and navigates the pocket well.
He drives the football while throwing off-platform on the run to a wide-open Harold Fannin Jr.
This type of play rarely happened in 2024, when Watson would usually just take a sack or throw an ill-advised pass.
Most of the Browns’ passing game has revolved around quick timing passes, allowing Watson to determine his reads pre-snap and make easy throws.
Watson identifies the “palms” defense pre-snap and knows Fannin will be open facing just one LB covering the middle of the field. That creates an easy completion.
This type of timing pass benefitted Fannin numerous times last week, leading to 9 targets in the game. He caught seven of those for 51 yards and 2 TDs.
Watson has hit a few deep passes to Denzel Boston this year, but most of the offense seems built on short, easy throws to negate the pass rush.
The one drawback is that Watson’s poor throw angles and inaccuracy still crop up often.
This play exemplifies Watson's bad tendencies. He just misses an easy timing route on a screen to KC Concepcion.
Watson still often releases the ball too high in his throwing motion, an issue that has plagued him all the way back to when I scouted him in college.
It was a consistent problem in 2024. It has been less frequent so far this season but still happens a few times per game.
That causes easy completions to sail over the intended target.
Not a Fantasy Starter…Yet
Watson certainly has improved from his poor 2024. But, I’m not ready to crown him a fantasy starter yet.
His mobility combined with better habits with his vision makes Watson a streaming option against poor pass defenses. But I also fear that Watson’s bad habits such as his high release point could lead to some rough games moving forward.
This may not be a satisfying conclusion. But Watson is much better than he was in 2024 and still not back to the potential fantasy superstar from early in his career. That certainly has helped boost the pass catchers for the Browns.
Fannin ranked as TE3 in PPR leagues last week thanks to Watson’s performance. Rookie WR Denzel Boston ranks as WR20 in PPR points per game while Concepcion is on the verge of a fantasy breakout.
Travis Etienne, RB, New Orleans Saints
Etienne signed a four-year, $47 million deal to join the Saints this offseason. Unfortunately, the big contract has not translated into much fantasy scoring.
He has followed an RB16 Week 1 with two straight RB38 PPR. And his opener got inflated by 7 catches on a high-volume New Orleans passing day. Now, he’ll miss time with a hamstring injury.
But Etienne’s film shows the same effective player he was in 2025. He just needs touches once he returns.
Mistakes in blocking assignments by the Saints O-line (and possibly Tyler Shough in identifying blitzes) have hampered Etienne.
He makes the right move, cutting back to the right side for an off-tackle hole. But, the O-line makes two critical mistakes that cause Etienne to be stuffed.
The LT and LG are double teaming a DT while S Jeremy Chinn closes the open hole. At the same time, DT Tonka Hemingway sheds the block from the center to close from the other side. That ends up as a minimal 2-yard gain.
Etienne still has the explosion and athleticism for big plays when the line blocks competently.
Etienne explodes through the open hole on this play with a good wiggle to get to the outside, outrunning defenders.
This is a good example of Etienne presenting the physical tools to break big plays and execute runs effectively.
Etienne also sports plenty of receiving ability.
He was the checkdown option for Shough, who looked that way after seeing the blitz. Etienne catches the ball and then evades contact along the sideline to add a few yards inside.
Etienne still looks like a high-end RB with his speed, explosion, and receiving ability. He looks like a buy low, especially while he’s injured and won’t help the team that drafted him.
See if you can swap a bench player for a RB with the potential to make a difference late in the season.
Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans
The Titans offense has been a mess so far. Their 37 points rank third-lowest in the league. Cam Ward has struggled to throw the ball effectively, stunting the production of the fourth overall pick.
But, Tate's early film shows a ton of promise as a future No. 1 WR, especially if the O-line and QB play improve.
Tate’s sharp route running created this 20-yard completion. He runs the curl route with little wasted movement, not allowing CB Colton Hood to shift his momentum and break up the pass. Tate also picks up a few extra yards after the catch.
His route running, hands, and after-catch toughness all work in concert here.
Unfortunately, bad passes from Ward have limited Tate’s fantasy output.
Tate gets separation on this slant and had potential for a big run after the catch if the pass was out in front of him. Instead, Ward puts the ball low and Tate has to make a diving catch.
That led to only a 6-yard completion in what could have been a longer play.
The bad passes have also led to incompletions.
Tate runs a streak with inside leverage on the CB. He gets a step past the defender and breaks open for a potential TD if the pass is catchable. Instead, Ward overthrows Tate by a few yards.
Perhaps more time and chemistry will allow Ward to know exactly where to place the ball. Or he just isn’t good enough to hit this type of deep pass consistently.
Either way, it’s disappointing for Tate’s immediate fantasy value. The 0-3 Titans could be bad enough to take another shot at a top QB if Ward continues to play poorly, so there could be hope for better QB play soon.
Trading a late 2027 1st for Tate in a dynasty league could pay off in the future, though you’ll have to suffer for a bit with the bad Titans’ offense.
