New Orleans Saints 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• RB Travis Etienne
• WR Jordyn Tyson
• WR Bryce Lance
• G David Edwards

Key Departures

• None

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Tyler Shough

2025 Role & Results

Beating Expectations

Shough totaled 1,997 yards, 9 TDs, and 4 INTs across nine starts. He added 174 rushing yards and 3 scores. 

The rookie posted four top-12 fantasy finishes and three more between QB13 and QB17. He finished QB12 in fantasy points per game, ahead of his QB16 finish in expected fantasy points.

Shough Enters in Relief, Proves Aggressive

Spencer Rattler entered the year as New Orleans’ starter, but the Saints turned to Shough after eight games.

The Saints didn’t hide him. They ranked eighth in overall pass rate with Shough (61.3%) and fifth in neutral-situation pass rate (62.4%).

The 26-year-old attacked downfield, posting the ninth-highest deep throw rate (12.5%) among 34 qualifiers. New Orleans was much less aggressive in the red zone, ranking 18th in red-zone pass rate and 28th in red-zone pass rate over expected. Any improvement in those categories will likely help his TD rate in 2026. (Last year’s 3.1% tied for 31st among qualifiers, with Rattler.)

Shough wasn’t a pure pocket passer, either. He ranked fourth among QBs in designed rushing yards during his starting sample and added 113 yards with 2 scores on scrambles.

Promising Efficiency Marks

Shough delivered decent efficiency, especially for a Round 2 rookie.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, he ranked:

• 12th in adjusted completion rate
• 13th in yards per attempt
• 19th in completion rate over expected

Shough also ranked sixth in catchable throw rate at 77.6%.

Kellen Moore Boosts the Offense

Shough excelled alongside new Saints HC Kellen Moore, who implemented a fantasy-friendly system. The Saints ranked 11th in total plays, jumping up to first in pace and situation-neutral pace.

Overall, the Saints finished sixth in pass attempts, 13th in passing yards, and 26th in passing TDs. 

Shough’s solid season came despite little receiving depth behind Chris Olave, who shook off concussion concerns for a 100-1,163-9 line. Rashid Shaheed left in a midseason trade to Seattle, and Alvin Kamara played only 11 games while setting a career low with 33 catches. 

That pushed Juwan Johnson into the No. 2 target role. He held up fine for a TE, posting 11.5 yards per catch, a 77% catch rate, and 1.69 yards per route run. But a better offense would cast him as a third option.

The O-line proved below average, finishing 19th in Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade and 29th in ESPN pass-block win rate.

Shaking Off Durability Concerns

Shough avoided injury trouble last season after a rough run in college. A broken collarbone ended his 2021 campaign nine games early. Another fracture of the same bone in September 2022 cost him six more games. 

A fractured left fibula wiped out most of his 2023 season.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Saints Add Fresh Talent

Shough’s supporting cast looks better with Round 1 WR Jordyn Tyson joining Olave. 

Tyson brings ideal size at 6’2, 203 pounds, with an early college breakout and displayed separation ability. His injury history adds risk, though, after hamstring, shoulder, and knee issues cost him 34% of his games over the past four seasons.

The Saints added two more WRs in the draft: North Dakota State’s Bryce Lance and LSU’s Barion Brown. Lance looks more developmental as a Round 4 pick from a small school, while sixth-rounder Brown likely opens on special teams.

The Saints’ veteran depth still looks shaky. Devaughn Vele is the likely WR3 after managing just 3 catches, 22.5 yards, and 0.15 TDs per game last season, and the alternatives are unproven players like Mason Tipton, Kevin Austin Jr., and Ja’Lynn Polk. 

The TE room should give Shough more support with Johnson back alongside Noah Fant and rookie Oscar Delp. Fant shared work with Mike Gesicki last year but proved efficient, setting a career high in catch rate and posting his best yards per route run since 2021. Delp didn’t produce much at Georgia, but a 9.82 Relative Athletic Score and early Round 3 capital make him worth monitoring.

The backfield also looks stronger after the Saints added Travis Etienne Jr. He supplied 9.3 yards after catch per reception last year, sixth among 27 qualifying RBs, and ranked second at the position with 6 receiving TDs. Alvin Kamara remains on the roster as of late May, but his role is unclear entering his age-31 season after an MCL injury limited him to a career-low 11 games and 5.6 yards per catch.

The Saints return four of five starters up front, while David Edwards steps in at LG. His four-year deal placed him 10th among guards in guaranteed money. The investment makes sense after Edwards finished 12th among 96 qualifiers in PFF pass-blocking grade last year.

Paths to Ceiling

Shough wasn’t last year’s Week 1 starter. Now he enters Year 2 in Kellen Moore’s offense as the clear QB1, with a more talented supporting cast after the additions of Tyson and Etienne. The upgraded offensive environment gives Shough a better shot at becoming a streamer you can count on.

Risk Factors

Shough showed some rushing ability last year, but he doesn’t offer a high-end ceiling in that area. That places more pressure on his passing production and the health of Chris Olave and Jordyn Tyson, both of whom carry injury notable injury histories. 

Shough’s 2025 helped ease some durability concern on his end after injuries limited him to just one starting season across seven college years.

Travis Etienne

2025 Role & Results

RB1 Production

Etienne posted 260 carries, 1,107 yards, and 7 TDs in 17 games. He added 36 catches, 292 yards, and a career-high 6 receiving TDs.

That translated to an RB10 finish in PPR and half-PPR. He reached top-12 PPR status in five games, with two others at RB13. Only three of his games landed outside the top 30.

Etienne Didn't Need a Workhorse Role

Despite the strong season, Etienne didn’t see workhorse usage. He finished 16th in snap share, 20th in carry share, and 28th in route rate. 

His red-zone role looked solid on the surface, with a 13th-place finish in RZ carry share and 14th in carry share inside the 10. The bigger concern showed up at the goal line, where he ranked just 27th in carry share inside the 5, barely ahead of Trevor Lawrence (40.7% to 33.3%).

Rushing Efficiency Lagged

Etienne didn’t deliver standout efficiency. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• 27th in yards per carry
• 27th in yards after contact per attempt
• 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 33rd in rush yards over expected per attempt

His passing-game efficiency offered a bit more optimism. Among 42 RBs with 30+ targets, he finished 11th in yards after catch per reception, 15th in yards per catch, and 22nd in yards per route run.

New HC, Play-caller Supplies a Lift

Etienne’s fantasy production came alongside first-year HC Liam Coen. The scheme proved friendly for RBs, ranking fourth in total plays, eighth in total rushes, and 10th in situation-neutral pace. The Jags also finished sixth in scoring.

The O-line settled in above average, finishing 14th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade and sixth in ESPN’s run-block win rate. 

No Durability Issues

Etienne played all 17 games last year, marking the third time in the past four seasons he’s done so. His last missed time came in 2024, when a hamstring injury cost him two games.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Etienne Cashes in as a Free Agent

Etienne signed a four-year deal with $28 million guaranteed. The deal ranks sixth among RBs in guarantees, giving us strong evidence that the Saints plan to feature him.

The rest of the depth chart only confirms it. Alvin Kamara played only 11 games last year and set career lows in yards per carry (3.6), receptions (33), and yards per route run (0.78). GM Mickey Loomis admitted that he’s still trying to figure out if Kamara will remain in New Orleans.

The Saints could still add another RB if Kamara departs, but the current competition isn’t intimidating. 

Kendre Miller still carries theoretical upside, but durability has remained the issue. He’s now working back from an October ACL tear.

Devin Neal was a productive four-year player at Kansas, but he entered the league as a Round 6 pick and played just 10 games as a rookie. A hamstring injury ended his season.

We project Etienne for 289 touches, a total that would have ranked 12th among RBs last year.

Saints Elevate the Supporting Cast

QB Tyler Shough enters his first full season as the starter. He made strides as a 26-year-old rookie, finishing 12th in adjusted completion rate and 13th in yards per attempt among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts. 

Round 1 Jordyn Tyson gives this unit a huge WR2 upgrade next to Chris Olave. Rashid Shaheed finished as last year’s second-most productive WR (44-499-2) despite being traded to Seattle after nine games. The improved receiver talent should help lighten boxes for Etienne.

Former Round 1 OTs Kelvin Banks Jr. and Taliese Fuaga give the unit strong bookends. David Edwards joins them at LG after landing a deal that ranks 10th among guards in guaranteed money. He ranked 29th among 73 qualifying guards in PFF run-blocking grade.

This unit will need better play from RG Cesar Ruiz and better health from C Erik McCoy to reach its potential. Ruiz tied for 67th in run-blocking grade last year, and injuries have forced McCoy to miss 20 games over the past two seasons.

Saints Poised to Run More in 2026

The 2025 Saints ranked just 29th in situation-neutral run rate. The production wasn’t much better: 27th in rushing TDs, 28th in rushing yards, and 31st in yards per carry.

That likely comes back to the Saints’ struggling personnel. Alvin Kamara managed just 3.6 yards per carry posted the second lowest success rate of his career. 

HC Kellen Moore has a mixed history with rushing volume, but he’s certainly not opposed to leaning on the run:

• 2019: eight 
• 2020: 15th 
• 2021: 12th
• 2022: sixth 
• 2023: 24th 
• 2024: first 
• 2025: 23rd

Our projections have Etienne for nearly 15 carries per game (plus 2.4 catches), plenty to support mid-tier RB2 value.

Paths to Ceiling

Ideally, the Saints would move on from Kamara and shuttle more receiving work to Etienne.

A ceiling case would also require Shough to improve and lead a higher-scoring offense. Last year’s Saints ranked just 28th in points and 27th in red-zone plays per game. Etienne would likely benefit from any scoring boost and give him a shot at finishing as a low-end RB1.

Risk Factors

Etienne’s efficiency was merely OK last season. If he doesn’t improve, and Kamara remains a Saint, Etienne could posted limited receiving production and struggle for consistent RB2 value.

Alvin Kamara

2025 Role & Results

An Ugly Season

Across 11 games, Kamara set career lows in:

• carries (131)
• rushing yards (471)
• rushing TDs (1)
• catches (33)
• receiving yards (186)
• receiving TDs (0)

The result: a disappointing RB35 finish in PPR points per game. He cracked the top 12 just once and added only three more top-24 weeks.

A Busy Start Quickly Fades

Kamara began the season as the clear RB1 for new HC Kellen Moore. Through Week 4, he ranked ninth among RBs with 78 touches, well ahead of Kendre Miller’s 31. 

But that role soon dwindled as Kamara dealt with an ankle injury. Over his final seven games, Kamara topped 15 touches only twice. That stretch included only two games with more than 3 catches.

No Signs of the Old Kamara

Kamara’s efficiency bottomed out.

Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 46th in yards per carry
• 47th in yards after contact per attempt
• 49th in rush yards over expected per attempt

Surprisingly, Kamara also failed to shine as a receiver. Among 40 RBs with 30+ targets, he ranked just 36th in yards per route run. And his 5.6 yards per catch set a career low.

New Orleans Supplied Low Rush Volume

The Saints set a mixed environment for rushing production.

They finished first in pace and situation-neutral pace, adding an 11th-place finish in total plays. But they ranked just 23rd in rush attempts, 23rd in ESPN’s run-block win rate, and 31st in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grade.

The Saints also finished 23rd in total yards and 28th in scoring. 

Receiving Production Drops

Kamara tallied 55+ catches in seven of his first eight seasons. Last year produced a career-low 3.0 catches per game, though, down from 4.9 in 2024 and 5.8 the season prior.

Last year also marked the second time in three seasons that he set a career low in yards per catch. His 11.9 carries per game were the fewest since Kamara’s 2017 rookie campaign.

Injuries Continue Piling Up

Beyond the ankle injury, Kamara missed the final six games with an MCL sprain. 

The veteran missed three games in 2024 with a groin injury, one in 2023 with an ankle, one in 2022 with a rib fracture, and four in 2021 with an MCL sprain.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Will Kamara Stick Around?

Kamara’s future remains the biggest mystery.

In May, Kamara said he was “excited to see” what he and free agent pickup Travis Etienne can do. Saints reporter Nick Underhill also wrote that it’s “incredibly clear” that Kamara wants to remain on the team.

The team sounds less certain. In May, GM Mickey Loomis said the Saints are still trying to figure out how Kamara will “fit our roster.” That matters with Kamara in the final year of his contract carrying a $10.5 million cap hit, while Etienne counts only $5 million in Year 1 of a four-year deal.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see Kamara land elsewhere this summer. If not, though, he projects in primarily a pass-catching role. We’re currently projecting him for 5.6 carries and 2.4 targets per game.

The Supporting Cast Brings Promise

QB Tyler Shough enters his first full season as starter. He made strides as a 26-year-old rookie, finishing 12th in adjusted completion rate and 13th in yards per attempt among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts. 

Round 1 pick Jordyn Tyson pairs with Chris Olave to give this unit a huge upgrade at WR2. Last year, Rashid Shaeed finished as the second most productive WR (44-499-2) despite a midseason trade to Seattle. The boosted WR talent should only help lighten boxes for the RBs.

Former Round 1 OTs Kelvin Banks Jr. and Taliese Fuaga give the unit strong bookends. David Edwards joins them at LG after landing a deal that ranks 10th among guards in guarantees.

This unit will need better play from RG Cesar Ruiz and better health from C Erik McCoy to reach its potential. Ruiz tied for 67th in run-blocking grade last year, and injuries have forced McCoy to miss 20 games over the past two seasons.

Kamara Unlikely to Benefit From Rising Offense

The 2025 Saints ranked just 29th in situation-neutral run rate. The production wasn’t much better: 27th in rushing TDs, 28th in rushing yards, and 31st in yards per carry.

That likely comes back to Kamara’s inability to find success on the ground. He managed only 3.6 YPC and tallied the second-worst success rate of his career (42%).

HC Kellen Moore has a mixed history with rushing volume, but he’s certainly not opposed to leaning on the run:

• 2019: eight 
• 2020: 15th 
• 2021: 12th
• 2022: sixth 
• 2023: 24th 
• 2024: first 
• 2025: 23rd

Kamara simply isn’t positionied to capitalize after the signing of Etienne. We project Kamara for only 5.6 carries and 1.9 catches per game.

Chris Olave

2025 Role & Results

A Career-Best '25

Olave set career highs with 100 catches, 1,163 yards, and 9 TDs. That placed him sixth among WRs in PPR and half-PPR points.

Olave finished with five top-12 fantasy weeks among 16 games, including four in the top 5. He ended only two weeks outside the top-36 WRs.

Olave's Targets Spike

Through Week 17, Olave ranked 10th among WRs with a 27.2% target share. That’s up from his marks in 2024 (23.6%), 2023 (23.9%) and 2022 (25.8%).

Isolate his eight-game sample with QB Tyler Shough, and the target share remains stable at 27.4%.

Olave remained the Saints’ primary intermediate and downfield weapon. His 41.7% air-yards share ranked seventh among WRs, while new HC Kellen Moore moved him inside more often with a career-high 41.9% of his routes coming from the slot.

The Saints leaned on Olave in scoring range, too. His 30.2% red-zone target share ranked fourth among all pass catchers.

He Didn't Sacrifice Efficiency

Olave posted strong efficiency markers with Shough, including: 

• 13.8 yards per catch
• 2.48 yards per route run
• 67.6% catch rate

He also finished sixth in ESPN’s Open Score, which measures how well a WR separates. The only WRs ahead of him: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, and Stefon Diggs.

A Mid-Season QB Change

QB Spencer Rattler started the first eight games and racked up only 8 TDs and 6.2 yards per attempt. He averaged just 207.1 yards per game in his seven complete outings.

Olave posted one top-15 fantasy finish alongside Rattler; three in the WR17-WR24 range.

Olave Avoids a Concussion

Olave missed only one game: Week 18 with a blood clot in his lung. The issue has since been resolved.

Olave’s football career was disrupted by five documented concussions from 2020-2024. Two separate concussions from the 2024 season forced nine absences and led him to consider retirement.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Saints Add Target Competition in Round 1

The Saints spent a Round 1 pick on Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson. When healthy, Tyson looked like a future NFL No. 1 with his physicality, route running, and body control. But he missed a substantial chunk of his college career with multiple injuries.

We’re projecting him in the No. 2 role with 6.7 targets per game, 1.7 behind Olave.

Olave’s target volume is still helped by the lack of proven options behind him. Likely WR3 Devaughn Vele is a third-year undrafted free agent who managed just 25-293-2 in 13 games last year. TE Juwan Johnson’s career year came with a major assist from a thin depth chart. We project Johnson’s targets to drop 15% to 86.7 from last year’s 102.

WR Bryce Lance’s size and athleticism make him a name to watch after he totaled 2,157 yards and 25 TDs over the past two seasons at North Dakota State. But even if the rookie pushes for a role, it would likely ding Vele and not Olave.

'He's Just an Explosive Play Waiting to Happen'

Shough returns for Year 2 after calling his connection with Olave “explosive.”

"I think for him, he's just super consistent,” Shough said. “Mentally, what he's had to overcome just from coming in, drafted at a high level, had some kind of freak injuries. He's just been the same dude showing up. He's just an explosive play waiting to happen and I love the guy.

"We're going to keep building that chemistry. He's been big for me coming in you know, kind of, halfway through the season and just being that positive ear and my voice. We're just constantly communicating. Fired up to kind of see what we can do next year.”

Olave finished last year with a 56% catch rate, but that climbed to 66.2% with Shough. If that efficiency holds on Olave’s current usage, another 2025-level season is well within reach.

Saints Return the Same Pass-Friendly Scheme

Olave enters Year 2 with HC Kellen Moore and OC Doug Nussmeier. 

It’s the same braintrust that ranked fifth in pass rate, fifth in neutral pass rate, sixth in total pass attempts, and first in pace and situation-neutral pace last season. Even with an 11th-place finish in total plays, there’s no reason to worry about the staff.

Paths To Ceiling

Olave proved last year that his ceiling rises to mid-WR1 territory. And now he returns the same QB and coaching staff that helped him reach career-best marks. 

Olave is entering just his age-26 season and should remain the clear lead target. His best-case outlook includes repeating last year’s target share over a full season with Shough, who ideally improves on a promising rookie campaign.

That combo could land Olave near the top of the position in scoring again.

Risk Factors

Even though he made it through last season without a concussion, that history puts Olave at risk of missing multiple games if he suffers another.

It’s also possible that Tyson siphons some of that career-best target share. A quick rookie-year adjustment could keep Olave from matching his 9.8 targets per game from 2025, while a high-priced new RB could turn some of last year’s pass attempts into rushes.

Jordyn Tyson

Prospect Profile

Tyson led Colorado in receiving as a true freshman, posting 470 yards and 4 TDs while averaging a gaudy 21.4 yards per catch. 

Then the trajectory changed.  A torn ACL, MCL, and PCL against Oregon ended his season after nine games and prompted a transfer to Arizona State.

The Breakout That Changed His Profile

After redshirting in 2023, Tyson turned 2024 into a statement season.

The start was uneven. He went quiet against Wyoming and Mississippi State, flashed with a 120-yard, 1-TD game versus Texas State, then disappeared again vs. Texas Tech. 

From that point on, though, Tyson was nearly automatic. He cleared 100 yards and/or scored in each of his final eight games.

A broken collarbone against Arizona ended his season prematurely again, but Tyson had already proved himself. He commanded 32% of team receptions and 34.4% of receiving yards in an offense that leaned heavily on RB Cam Skattebo.

The efficiency backed it up. Tyson earned third-team All-America honors while ranking 14th nationally in yards per route run at 3.04 and 23rd with 441 yards after catch. He came down with 10 of his 15 contested targets. 

Tysons also showed positional flexibility, running 42.6% of his routes from the slot.

Proof of Upside ... With Lingering Questions

Tyson’s junior season opened exactly how you’d want to see it. He scored 7 TDs in Arizona State’s first five games and routinely took over passing plans.

The tape and box scores lined up. Tyson shredded Northern Arizona for 12-141-2, followed with a 126-yard game against TCU, and delivered a 10-105-1 performance in ASU’s upset of then-No. 7 Texas Tech. 

At that point, his draft stock was climbing fast. Then an injury hit again.

A right hamstring issue sidelined him for three games. Tyson played limited snaps against Colorado upon returning and then tweaked his left hamstring early against Arizona.

Tyson also had to play those final two games without QB Sam Leavitt, who suffered a Lisfranc injury on Oct. 25.

The WR declared for the draft on Dec. 19 and opted out of the Sun Bowl against Duke. He dealt with another hamstring injury during the predraft process and didn’t test at the NFL combine.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Tyson Positioned for the No. 2 Role

The Saints saw enough to draft Jordyn Tyson eighth overall as the No. 2 WR behind Carnell Tate.

He joins a corps led by Chris Olave, who’s coming off a career-best 2025. Olave delivered 100 catches, 1,163 yards, and 9 TDs, all of which ranked top-8 among WRs.

The WR room lacks proven talent behind Olave, though. New Orleans traded Rashid Shaheed in the middle of last season, leaving former undrafted free agent Devaughn Vele to finish third among Saints WRs with 25 catches across 13 games. (Shaheed ranked second despite leaving after nine games.)

Bryce Lance brings the size, athleticism, and college production to make him worth monitoring. But Lance could need time to adjust coming out of North Dakota State, and we don’t expect him to threaten Tyson’s volume.

Tyson steps into a clear No. 2 WR projection with a 19.8% target share, ahead of TE Juwan Johnson at 15.0%. Johnson broke out in 2025 -- helped by a shallow WR room -- but his 3.6 targets per game from 2021-2024 suggest he’s better cast in a complementary role.

Tyson’s tape also points to early trust and usage. Our prospect guru Shane Hallam highlighted the wideout’s advanced feel for zone coverage and ability to win at the catch point.

Tyler Shough ... Breakout Candidate?

Tyson joins an offense led by second-year QB Tyler Shough. Nine starts isn’t enough to make any firm declarations, but Shough’s early sample offered reasons for optimism.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, the rookie ranked:

• 11th in completion rate
• 11th in catchable throw rate
• 13th in yards per attempt

Expect the Saints to Lean Pass

This staff created plenty of passing volume last season, ranking fifth in pass rate, fifth in neutral pass rate, and sixth in total pass attempts. They also played fast, finishing first in pace and situation-neutral pace and 11th in total plays.

That type of approach bodes well for Tyson’s rookie-year production.

Paths to Ceiling

Beyond the coaching setup, Tyson’s outlook will get a boost if Shough improves. The age is worth noting, with Shough turning 27 in September. But his nine starts gave us enough encouraging flashes to expect some Year 2 growth.

Tyson also has a real shot to beat his target-share projection. Olave’s concussion history remains concerning, with five documented head injuries, a post-2024 retirement consideration, and an eight-game absence after his latest concussion in November 2024.

Risk Factors

Tyson has the profile to matter right away, but we shouldn’t ignore the rookie WR hit rate. Since 2016, only 13 of 44 Round 1 WRs have reached 12.0 PPR points per game. That’s around mid-range WR3 production, which matches Tyson’s current price. Among the 13 WRs who reached 12.0 PPR points per game, only Jordan Addison and Calvin Ridley ranked second on their teams in targets.

Of course, there’s also the durability issue with Tyson. He missed 34% of his games over the past four seasons and dealt with a hamstring injury during the predraft process.

Juwan Johnson

2025 Role & Results

a Fantasy Surprise

Johnson compiled 77 catches, 889 yards, and 3 TDs in 17 games.

He ranked eighth among TEs in total PPR points; 13th in points per game. Johnson’s breakout season included nine top-12 fantasy finishes and only four weeks outside the top 16. He reached top-12 status in five of nine games with QB Tyler Shough, with a low finish of TE22.

Johnson Stepped Up for a Thin Unit

Chris Olave stayed mostly healthy, avoiding concussion issues and missing only Week 18. But New Orleans still dealt with major skill-position turnover, trading Rashid Shaheed midseason and losing Alvin Kamara for six games. No. 3 WR Devaughn Vele managed only 25 catches in 13 games,

The result: a career-high 16.9% target share for Johnson, good for 13th among TEs. His 18.6% red zone target share ranked 15th at the position. 

Even His Efficiency Looked Solid

Among 28 TEs with 50+ targets, Johnson ranked:

• seventh in yards per catch
• seventh in yards per target
• ninth in yards per route run
• 18th in targets per route run
• 21st in yards after catch per reception

Johnson also saw plenty of on-target looks. His 90.0% catchable-target rate ranked sixth among TEs. Overall, Johnson’s efficiency profile looks solid.

Saints Push the Pace, Lean Pass

The Saints broke in a new offense under play-calling HC Kellen Moore. His unit ranked 23rd in yards and 28th in points but jumped to sixth in pass attempts and 13th in passing yards.

Moore added the ingredients to improve on those finishes in Year 2 of Shough and with more offensive talent surrounding him. The Saints finished first in pace and situation-neutral pace and slotted 11th in total plays.

Zero Missed Games Since 2023

Johnson has played all 17 games in two straight seasons. He needed foot surgery in June 2024 but returned to practice in mid-August.

His last missed time came in 2023, when a calf injury sidelined him for a month.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Expect Johnson's Role to Diminish

We project Johnson for a similar route rate as last season: 74%

But we have his target share dropping from 16.9% to 15.0%, largely due to the selection of Round 1 WR Jordyn Tyson. That draft capital is backed up by an age-18 breakout, a 34% college target share, and the ability to win inside and out. Our prospect guru Shane Hallam comped Tyson to former Falcon Roddy White, who hit 1,100 yards six times in an 11-year career.

Tyson brings injury concerns after suffering several notable injuries at Arizona State. But he enters the summer healthy and positioned to work as the No. 2 target behind Chris Olave.

The Saints also bolstered their TE depth with Noah Fant and Oscar Delp. Fant shared work with Mike Gesicki last year but proved efficient, setting a career high in catch rate and posting his best yards per route run since 2021. Delp didn’t produce much at Georgia, but a 9.82 Relative Athletic Score and early Round 3 capital make him worth monitoring.

Shough Looks like a Rising QB

Shough enters Year 2 with a full offseason to settle in as the starter. He showed promise last year despite limited receiving help, below-average protection, and a midseason move into the lineup.

Among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts, the rookie ranked:

• 11th in completion rate
• 11th in catchable throw rate
• 13th in yards per attempt

HC, OC Return For Another Season

Johnson returns to the same staff that steered the team to rankings of fifth in pass rate, fifth in neutral pass rate, and sixth in total pass attempts last season. 

Per Fantasy Points Data, Johnson also ranked 11th among TEs in first-read target rate at 19.4%, just behind Travis Kelce. That could dip with Tyson on the roster, but there’s no reason to doubt the TE’s fit under this staff.

Paths to Ceiling

If Johnson’s volume dips as expected, he’ll probably need an outlier TD season to hit his ceiling. Last year brought the opposite with a 3.8% TD rate, but his scoring chances should improve if Travis Etienne upgrades the run game and Shough develops.

Johnson also has a history of stronger TD production than we saw in 2025:

• 2021 TD rate: 30.7%
• 2022 TD rate: 16.6%
• 2023 TD rate: 10.8%
• 2024 TD rate: 6.0%

Johnson peaked with a 7-TD season in 2022.

Of course, there’s also the chance that Johnson retains more target share than we’re projecting for him, while also leveraging the positive efficiency and potentially benefiting from his team’s overall offensive improvement.

There’s a path to top-12 fantasy numbers among TEs.