Buffalo Bills 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• WR D.J. Moore

Key Departures

• G David Edwards

Notable Coaching Changes

• HC Sean McDermott out
• Joe Brady promoted from OC to HC
• Pete Carmichael hired as OC

Josh Allen

2025 Role & Results

Dual-Threat Production Leads To QB1 Finish

Allen led all QBs in fantasy points per game last year with a combination of strong passing and elite rushing production.

He ranked 11th with 3,668 passing yards and tied for ninth with 25 passing TDs. But he really separated on the ground, leading all QBs with 579 rushing yards and 14 TDs. Allen scored 141.9 fantasy points via rushing, 39.2 more than any other QB. And that was all despite leaving a meaningless Week 18 after just one snap.

Allen was a steady weekly option, finishing as a top-10 fantasy QB in 10 of 16 full outings (tied for most). And he provided a high ceiling, leading all QBs in fantasy points three times and finishing as a top-5 QB three other times. No QB had more overall No.1 weeks, and only Matthew Stafford had more top-5 weeks.

Goal-Line Role Was Key

Allen ranked fifth among QBs in expected fantasy points per game through Week 17. 

He finished 12th league-wide with 460 pass attempts through Week 17 but led all QBs with 112 carries, including a position-high 33 red-zone carries and 17 inside the 5-yard line.

aDOT Down, Efficiency Up

Allen posted career highs last year in completion rate (69.3%) and yards per attempt (8.0). Both marks ranked fifth among 42 QBs with 150+ attempts.

That came on a career-low 7.6-yard average target depth. Allen’s aDOT has now sunk in four straight seasons.

He also ranked eighth in passing-TD rate (5.4%) and ninth in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

On the ground, Allen finished 14th among QBs in yards per carry (5.2) and seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.59). He led the position in PFF rushing grade.

Supporting Cast Was A Mixed Bag

The Bills ranked fourth in points last year, their sixth straight top-6 finish. They also ranked fourth in total yards.

It was a run-leaning offense, finishing:

• 31st in pass rate
• 30th in neutral pass rate
• 28th in pass rate over expected

The offensive line was sturdy, finishing fourth in both PFF pass-blocking grade and ESPN pass-block win rate.

The pass-catching corps proved much less impressive. WR Khalil Shakir led the team with 95 targets, 72 catches, and 719 yards. No other Bill reached 600 receiving yards. TE Dalton Kincaid missed five games. WR Keon Coleman missed four and disappointed when he was out there.

Buffalo ranked 19th as a team in PFF receiving grade.

Six Straight Top-4 Finishes

Allen has been a regular atop the QB rankings for the past six seasons. Here are his annual finishes in fantasy points per game:

• 2020: third
• 2021: first
• 2022: first
• 2023: first
• 2024: fourth
• 2025: first

He’s done it with efficient passing and big rushing volume. Over the last six years, Allen has completed 65.8% of his passes at 7.5 yards per attempt with a 5.7% TD rate, marks that rank 19th, seventh, and fourth among 42 QBs with 1,000+ attempts.

On the ground, Allen ranks third in carries, second in yards, and second in TDs since 2000.

He has beaten all other QBs by at least 2 fantasy points per game over that stretch.

Allen Plays Through Injuries

Allen holds the longest active consecutive starts streak among QBs at 130 games (regular season and playoffs). 

He missed four games with a throwing-elbow injury as a rookie in 2018 but hasn’t missed a game due to injury since. Allen has dealt with toe, elbow, hand, and foot injuries over that span but has played through them.

That included a broken bone in his right foot in Week 16 last year. Allen played Week 17, got in his 1 snap in a meaningless Week 18, and then played all 141 offensive snaps across Buffalo’s two playoff games.

He underwent surgery in January to repair a broken fifth metatarsal in that foot but is expected to be a full-go well before training camp.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Back For Year 2 Of Big Contract

Allen will be back under center for the Bills this season, the second year of the six-year, $330 million contract he signed in March 2025.

Allen Gets WR Help, O-Line Remains Strong

The Bills return their top seven targets from a year ago:

• Khalil Shakir
• Keon Coleman
• Dalton Kincaid
• Dawson Knox
• James Cook
• Josh Palmer
• Ty Johnson

But the team might have a new target leader after swinging a trade for WR D.J. Moore in March. Buffalo sent the 60th overall pick to Chicago for Moore and a fifth-rounder.

It’s a hefty price to pay for a guy coming off a disappointing 2025. Moore posted career lows in catches (50) and yards (682), while ranking 60th in yards per route and 55th in PFF receiving grade among 76 qualifying WRs.

Moore posted a 98-966-6 line in 2024, though, and had topped 1,100 yards in four of the five seasons before that. He turned just 29 in April.

We’ll see which version of Moore the Bills get. At best, he’s the most talented WR Allen has had since Stefon Diggs. At worst, he gives the WR room another steady veteran alongside Shakir.

The offensive line returns four of five starters, with Alec Anderson expected to replace David Edwards at LG. Edwards left for New Orleans in free agency after ranking 14th among 63 guards in PFF’s 2025 pass-blocking grades. Anderson went undrafted in 2022 and has played just 479 snaps since.

That spot will be worth monitoring this summer, but this projects as a strong line in front of Allen.

Bills Likely To Stay Run-Centric Under Brady

Buffalo fired Sean McDermott in January, ending a nine-year run as HC. The team replaced him by promoting Joe Brady. 

Brady spent the last 2.5 seasons as Buffalo’s OC, taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through 2023. The Bills went run-heavy over the second half of that season, posting a 48.2% pass rate and 52.0% neutral pass rate. Here’s where Buffalo has ranked in those metrics the last two years: 

We’ll see what the departure of defensive-minded McDermott means for the run-pass split, but we’re expecting this to remain a run-leaning offense in 2026.

We’ll also see what kind of impact new OC Pete Carmichael has. Carmichael spent 19 of the last 20 seasons with Sean Payton, first in New Orleans and then in Denver the past two. That includes two years with Brady in 2017 and 2018.

Brady will continue to call plays in 2026, but Carmichael figures to have his fingerprints on the offense. Former QB Chase Daniel, who played for the Saints in 2017, expects more play-action passing from the Bills going forward.

That’d be welcome for Allen, who ranked ninth in completion rate and 15th in yards per attempt among 45 qualifying QBs on play-action passes last year.

Paths To Ceiling

This doesn’t take much imagination considering Allen has led all QBs in fantasy points per game in four of the last five seasons.

If Joe Brady continues to build the offense around Allen’s dual-threat ability, he has a clear path to lead the position again. The arrival of Moore only boosts the ceiling.

Risk Factors

This could remain a middling pass-catching corps if Moore doesn’t bounce back from an underwhelming 2025. And having a first-time HC adds some risk, even if Brady spent the last 2.5 seasons calling plays for the Bills.

Still, barring injury, it’s tough to imagine Allen falling outside the top-5 fantasy QBs.

James Cook

2025 Role & Results

Cook Wins Rushing Title

Cook carried 309 times for 1,621 yards and 12 TDs last year. The carries and yards were career highs. Cook led the league in rushing yards and tied for fifth among RBs in rushing scores.

He wasn’t as busy in the passing game, finishing with 33 catches for 291 yards and 2 TDs. Those marks ranked 23rd, 16th, and 14th, respectively, among RBs.

Omitting Week 18 -- when he was pulled after just 2 snaps -- Cook finished RB6 in PPR points per game, RB5 in half-PPR, and RB5 in non-PPR.

He scored as a top-12 PPR RB in 10 of 16 full outings and fell outside the top-26 just once.

Big Rushing Volume Fuels Fantasy Production

Cook’s 60.9% snap rate through Week 17 ranked 16th among RBs. He ceded some passing-down work to RB Ty Johnson, finishing with a 39.1% route rate that ranked 25th at the position.

But Cook’s 309 carries ranked third league-wide. He also finished:

• Eighth in carries inside the 10-yard line (26)
• Eighth in carries inside the 5 (16)
• Seventh in expected rushing TDs (10.5)

Cook ranked just 26th among RBs with 40 targets but still finished RB7 in expected PPR points per game and RB5 in half-PPR through Week 17.

Efficiency: Strong On The Ground, Middling Through The Air

Cook was one of the most effective runners in the league last year. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:

• second in yards per carry
• second in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 18th in yards after contact per attempt
• 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• ninth in Pro Football Focus rush grade

He wasn’t as good as a receiver, ranking 20th in yards per route and 25th in PFF receiving grade among 40 RBs with 30+ targets.

Cook ultimately scored 3.1 more PPR points per game than expected through Week 17, making him the fifth-biggest overachiever at his position. (He scored 4.2 more points per game than expected in 2024.)

Bills Go Run-Heavy

The Bills ranked fourth in points last year, their sixth straight top-6 finish. They also ranked fourth in total yards.

It was a run-leaning offense, finishing:

• 31st in pass rate
• 30th in neutral pass rate
• 28th in pass rate over expected

The offensive line was one of the best in the league, ranking first in ESPN run-block win rate, sixth in PFF run-blocking grade, and second in adjusted line yards.

Cook Continues To Ascend

Cook has improved his production across each of his four NFL seasons.

Cook’s advanced metrics have jumped over the past two seasons. After averaging 2.83 yards after contact per attempt and 0.17 missed tackles forced per attempt in 2022 and 2023, he’s up to 3.20 and 0.19 over the last two years.

Most importantly, Cook got a big bump in usage last year. His 2024 was unsustainable: 16.7 PPR points per game (RB11) on 13.1 expected (RB27). While Cook again out-produced his expected points last year, finishing RB7 in expected points per game makes him much easier to count on going forward.

Clean Injury History

Cook has missed just one game through four NFL seasons, with a toe injury in 2024. 

He also dodged serious injury in college, missing just a couple of games with ankle and shoulder issues.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Cook Will Remain A Workhorse

Cook is back in Buffalo for the second season of the four-year, $46 million deal he signed last August. There are only four active RB contracts with a higher overall value.

The Bills made no moves in the backfield this offseason, returning Ty Johnson and Ray Davis behind Cook. Johnson took some passing-down work from Cook last year, posting a 34% route rate and 29 targets through Week 17. But he averaged just 2.3 carries per game over that span. Davis averaged only 2.3 carries and 0.7 targets per game through Week 17.

Cook should play a similar role this season, dominating RB carries while seeing the lead share of passing-down work.

Offensive Line Remains Strong

The Bills return QB Josh Allen and added WR D.J. Moore, but expect this offense to lean run again in 2026.

Four of five starters are back on the offensive line, with Alec Anderson expected to replace David Edwards at LG. Edwards left for New Orleans in free agency after ranking 20th among 64 guards in PFF’s 2025 run-blocking grades. Anderson went undrafted in 2022 and has played just 479 snaps since.

That spot will be worth monitoring this summer, but this projects as one of the better run-blocking O-lines.

Bills Likely To Remain Run-Centric Under Brady

The Bills fired Sean McDermott in January, ending a nine-year run as HC. The team replaced him by promoting Joe Brady. 

Brady spent the last 2.5 seasons as Buffalo’s OC, taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through the 2023 campaign. The Bills went run-heavy over the second half of that season, posting a 48.2% pass rate and 52.0% neutral pass rate. Here’s where Buffalo has ranked in those metrics the last two years: 

We’ll see what the departure of defensive-minded McDermott means for the run-pass split, but we’re expecting this to remain a run-centric offense in 2026.

Cook has notably averaged 17.9 PPR points across 38 full regular-season games with Brady calling plays.

We’ll also see what kind of impact new OC Pete Carmichael has. Carmichael spent 19 of the last 20 seasons with Sean Payton, first in New Orleans and then in Denver the past two. That includes two years with Brady in 2017 and 2018.

Brady will continue to call plays in 2026, but Carmichael figures to have his fingerprints on the offense. 

Paths To Ceiling

Cook’s performance and pay lock him into a heavy workload on the high-scoring Bills. An efficient runner with a big goal-line role, Cook is plenty capable of another top-6 fantasy season in 2026.

He’d need a spike in passing-game usage to compete with the guys at the very top of the position.

Risk Factors

Despite big fantasy seasons the past two years, Cook ranks outside the top-18 RBs in targets, catches, and receiving yards over that span. That makes him more reliant on rushing efficiency and TDs than most of the other backs going in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts.

If he falters in either department this season, Cook could fall to high-end RB2 status.

D.J. Moore

2025 Role & Results

A Career-Worst Campaign

Moore caught 50 balls for 682 yards in 17 games last year. Both marks set career lows and landed outside the top-35 WRs.

Six TDs somewhat salvaged Moore’s fantasy season, but he still finished just 46th among WRs in PPR points per game and 43rd in half-PPR points per game.

Moore scored as a top-10 PPR WR four times (all from Week 9 on) but failed to crack the top-36 WRs 10 times.

Moore Struggled To Earn Targets

Moore led Bears WRs in snaps (84.8%) and routes (79.8%) last year. But Rome Odunze edged him 90 to 85 in targets, despite missing five games.

Moore’s 0.16 targets per route ranked 66th among 86 WRs with 250+ routes last season. His 14.3% target share ranked 53rd.

Moore did get strong usage near the end zone, leading Chicago with 23 red-zone targets and 11 end-zone targets. Those marks ranked 27th and 11th, respectively, among all WRs.

Still, Moore finished just WR51 in expected PPR points per game.

The Advanced Metrics Were Worrisome, Too

Moore caught 58.8% of his targets and averaged 13.6 yards per catch last year. His 8.0 yards per target ranked 33rd among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

But he ranked just 60th out of those 76 WRs with 1.22 yards per route and 55th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Moore also underwhelmed in other grading systems:

• 65th among 110 WRs in ESPN receiver score
• 37th out of 84 WRs in Fantasy Points separation score
• 38th out of 84 in Fantasy Points win rate

Caleb Williams Was Partly To Blame

The Bears offense took a big step forward in HC Ben Johnson’s first season, climbing from 32nd in yards and 28th in points in 2024 to sixth in yards and ninth in points last year.

Chicago finished 10th in pass attempts, yards, and TDs despite a still-inconsistent Caleb Williams. He ranked 38th among 42 qualifying QBs in completion rate and 22nd in yards per attempt.

75.6% of Moore’s targets last year were catchable, according to Fantasy Points charting. That ranked 42nd among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

Can Moore Reverse The Downward Trend?

Moore’s 9.9 PPR points per game last year marked a career low. He has also registered back-to-back career lows in yards per route and PFF receiving grade.

He’d been a strong target earner prior to last year, topping a 23% share in each of the previous five seasons. His finishes among WRs in PPR points per game those years:

• 2020: 27th
• 2021: 28th
• 2022: 36th
• 2023: ninth
• 2024: 28th

Moore turned just 29 in April, helping his chances of bouncing back in 2026.

Clean Injury History

Moore has played all 17 games in five straight seasons. He missed one game in 2020 with COVID and one in 2019 with a concussion.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Bills Believe Moore Can Bounce Back

The Bills sent the 60th pick of this spring’s draft to Chicago for Moore and a fifth-round pick. 

2026 is the first year of the four-year, $110 million extension Moore signed in July 2024. He carries just a $6.75 million cap hit this season. But that jumps to $28.94 million in 2027. There’s a potential out in the contract after that 2027 season.

It’s a relatively big investment from the Bills and a sign they believe Moore can bounce back.

“I didn’t see a drop-off in D.J.’s play last year,” HC Joe Brady said in March. “I didn’t see a drop-off in who he is. Knowing his skill set is important for me, in terms of building the offense this offseason.”

A Path To Lead Buffalo In Targets

The Bills return their top seven targets from a year ago:

• Khalil Shakir
• Keon Coleman
• Dalton Kincaid
• Dawson Knox
• James Cook
• Josh Palmer
• Ty Johnson

Shakir has averaged 6.3 targets per game over the last two seasons and will remain a significant part of this passing game in 2026. Kincaid is coming off an injury-riddled season but averaged 4.1 targets per game and could draw more volume this year.

No one else is guaranteed a role, though. And there’s certainly an opportunity for Moore to emerge as the receiving leader.

QB Upgrade Boosts The Fantasy Outlook

QB Josh Allen is back as Buffalo's starter and looks like a big upgrade from Caleb Williams. Here’s how those two compared in key metrics last year:

Buffalo has not been a great spot for WR production lately. But the team did rank top-5 in total WR PPR points in three straight seasons from 2020-2022.

That, not coincidentally, was the first three years of the Stefon Diggs era. Here’s where Diggs finished in PPR points per game in his four seasons with the Bills:

• 2020: third
• 2021: 11th
• 2022: fifth
• 2023: 15th

That points to Moore’s upside with the Bills. But it’s worth noting that Diggs was 27 and coming off a 1,130-yard season for the Vikings before arriving in Buffalo. 

Here’s a deeper comparison of Diggs vs. Moore in their final seasons before joining the Bills:

Bills Likely To Stay Run-Centric Under Brady

The Bills fired Sean McDermott in January, ending a nine-year run as HC. The team replaced him by promoting Joe Brady.

Brady spent the past 2.5 seasons as Buffalo’s OC after taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through 2023. The Bills went run-heavy over the second half of that season, posting a 48.2% pass rate and 52.0% neutral pass rate. Here’s where Buffalo has ranked in those metrics the last two years: 

We’ll see what the departure of defensive-minded McDermott means for the run-pass split, but we’re expecting this to remain a run-leaning offense in 2026.

Brady spent two seasons as Moore’s OC in Carolina in 2020 and 2021, when Moore posted strong 23.1% and 26.4% target shares. A poor offense still limited him to WR27 and WR28 finishes in PPR points per game.

Paths To Ceiling

Moore topped a 23% target share in five straight seasons before last year, and now he gets a sizable QB upgrade from Williams to Allen.

If Moore’s target share rebounds to 23% or above and his efficiency improves in Buffalo, he could score as a top-20 fantasy WR.

Risk Factors

Moore was not good last year, earning just 14.3% of Bears targets and registering career worsts in yards per route and PFF receiving grade.

If he doesn’t bounce back, Moore could be out-targeted by Khalil Shakir and struggle for WR3 value this season.

Khalil Shakir

2025 Role & Results

Shakir Struggles To Find A Ceiling

Shakir caught 72 balls for 719 yards and 4 TDs across 16 games last year. He tied for 19th among WRs in catches but ranked just 34th in yards and tied for 40th in TDs.

Shakir finished 42nd at the position in PPR points per game; 45th in half-PPR.

He didn’t boast much weekly upside, scoring as a top-12 PPR receiver just twice. But he did crack the top-36 in nine of 16 outings.

Limited Playing Time And Downfield Targets

Shakir led Bills WRs in snaps (60.1%) and routes (70.8%) last year. That route rate ranked just 56th among all WRs, though, as Shakir was mostly limited to 3-WR sets. He ran 70.2% of his routes from the slot.

Shakir’s 95 targets tied for 32nd among WRs, and his 19.5% target share ranked 34th. He was used almost entirely near the line of scrimmage, posting a 3.8-yard average target depth that was the lowest among 76 WRs with 50+ targets.

Shakir finished 52nd at his position in expected PPR points per game.

Shakir Relied On After-Catch Production

Shakir caught 75.8% of his targets last year but averaged just 10.0 yards per catch. That’s about what we’d expect based on his minuscule average target depth.

Shakir’s 1.71 yards per route ranked 32nd among 76 WRs with 50+ targets. He finished 42nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Much of Shakir’s production came after the catch. His 7.6 yards after catch per reception ranked second among those 76 WRs with 50+ targets, and his +1.9 yards after catch over expected ranked sixth among all players with 45+ targets.

Low Passing Volume Didn't Help

The Bills ranked fourth in points last year, their sixth straight top-6 finish. They also ranked fourth in total yards.

It was a run-leaning offense, though, finishing:

• 31st in pass rate
• 30th in neutral pass rate
• 28th in pass rate over expected

Still, strong efficiency boosted the Bills to 15th in passing yards and seventh in TDs.

The Production Dipped From 2024

Shakir’s production and efficiency were down a bit last year from 2024, when he finished WR37 in PPR points per game.

Shakir was deployed very similarly in 2024, with 72.9% of his routes from the slot and a 5.6-yard average target depth.

Offseason Ankle Surgery Not A Concern

Shakir suffered a high-ankle sprain in early August last year but was ready for the start of the season. He played 16 games before sitting out a meaningless regular-season finale. 

Shakir had surgery on that ankle after the season but was on the field for April OTAs. It doesn’t seem like the injury will impact his 2026.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Shakir Faces New Target Competition

The Bills return Shakir and the rest of their top seven targets from a year ago:

• Keon Coleman
• Dalton Kincaid
• Dawson Knox
• James Cook
• Josh Palmer
• Ty Johnson

But Shakir faces new target competition after the Bills swung a trade for WR D.J. Moore in March. Buffalo sent the 60th pick to Chicago in exchange for Moore and a fifth-rounder.

It’s a hefty price to pay for a guy coming off a disappointing 2025. Moore posted career lows in catches (50) and yards (682), while ranking 60th in yards per route and 55th in PFF receiving grade among 76 qualifying WRs.

Shakir beat Moore in both of those metrics.

Moore posted a 98-966-6 line in 2024, though, and had topped 1,100 yards in four of the five seasons before that. He turned just 29 in April.

Whether, and to what extent, Moore bounces back this season will have a significant impact on Shakir’s target volume.

QB And Offensive Line Remain Strong

QB Josh Allen will be back under center for the Bills. He’s led Buffalo to top-9 finishes in passing yards in five of the last six seasons and top-7 finishes in passing TDs in all six.

The offensive line returns four of five starters, with Alec Anderson expected to replace David Edwards at LG. Edwards left for New Orleans in free agency after ranking 14th among 63 guards in PFF’s 2025 pass-blocking grades. Anderson went undrafted in 2022 and has played just 479 snaps since.

That spot will be worth monitoring this summer but this still projects as a strong O-line.

Bills Likely To Remain Run-Centric Under Brady

The Bills fired Sean McDermott in January, ending a nine-year run as HC. The team replaced him by promoting Joe Brady.

Brady spent the last 2.5 seasons as Buffalo’s OC after taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through the 2023 campaign. The Bills went run-heavy over the second half of that season, posting a 48.2% pass rate and 52.0% neutral pass rate. Here’s where Buffalo has ranked in those metrics the last two years: 

We’ll see what the departure of defensive-minded McDermott means for the run-pass split, but we’re expecting this to remain a run-leaning offense in 2026.

But Shakir’s emergence in 2024 coincided with Brady taking over as play caller, so it’s not all bad news.

Paths To Ceiling

Despite leading the Bills in targets in each of the last two seasons, Shakir has finished just WR37 and WR42 in PPR points per game.

His path to a higher finish comes in the TD department, where Shakir has totaled just 8 TDs on a 5.4% TD rate over the last two years. More scores could vault him into WR3 territory.

Risk Factors

The arrival of Moore and a healthier Kincaid could push Shakir to third among Bills in targets. That’d likely leave him as a non-factor in fantasy football.

Dalton Kincaid

2025 Role & Results

Volatile Weekly Production

Kincaid totaled 39 catches for 571 yards and 5 TDs across 12 games last year. He ranked 13th among TEs in PPR points per game and 10th in half-PPR.

Kincaid was a volatile weekly producer. He finished as a top-10 PPR TE in five of 12 games, including three top-4 finishes. But he also finished TE25 or worse four times.

Kincaid Didn't Play Enough

Playing time was a major problem for Kincaid last year. He played just 37.6% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps across 12 games and ran a route on 44.2% of pass plays, which ranked 39th among TEs.

Kincaid finished 23rd among TEs in target share (14.1%) and expected PPR points per game (7.7).

Kincaid still drew targets at an elite rate, leading all 69 TEs with 100+ routes at 0.27 targets per route last season.

Elite Per-Route Production

Kincaid was super efficient on a per-route basis last year. His 2.79 yards per route led all 38 TEs with 40+ targets and was the best mark from a TE with 40+ targets since George Kittle in 2020.

Kincaid also led those 38 TEs with 0.70 fantasy points per route.

He combined a strong 79.6% catch rate with 14.6 yards per catch and a 12.8% TD rate. All three marks ranked top-6 among those 38 TEs with 40+ targets.

Passing Game Was Low On Volume But High On Efficiency

The Bills ranked fourth in points last year, their sixth straight top-6 finish. They also ranked fourth in total yards.

It was a run-leaning offense, though, finishing:

• 31st in pass rate
• 30th in neutral pass rate
• 28th in pass rate over expected

Still, strong efficiency boosted the Bills to 15th in passing yards and seventh in TDs.

First Three Seasons Have Been Promising

Kincaid has produced plenty when on the field since going 25th overall in the 2023 draft.

He posted a 73-673-2 line in 16 games as a rookie, finishing TE13 in PPR points per game and scoring the ninth-most points per game by a rookie TE over the last 10 seasons.

Kincaid sank to TE23 in PPR points per game in 2024 as his efficiency cratered. But he still ranked ninth among TEs in target share (18.1%).

He rebounded last year with career bests in:

• Yards per game (47.6)
• Yards per target (11.7)
• Yards per route (2.79)
• Pro Football Focus receiving grade (81.9)

Kincaid’s 2026 hinges on finding more playing time after his route rate fell from 68.3% to 57.7% to 44.2% over his first three seasons.

Will The Knee Continue To Be A Problem?

Kincaid missed five games last year, one with an oblique injury, three with a hamstring, and one with a knee.

The knee was a recurrence of an issue that’s plagued Kincaid since 2024. He suffered what teammate Dawson Knox said was a torn PCL that November. Kincaid missed the following three games and saw his playing time limited upon return.

He opted against surgery the following offseason and reportedly aggravated the same knee while preparing to return from last November’s hamstring injury. Kincaid then missed Week 17 with knee trouble.

He has again decided not to surgically address the issue this offseason. Here’s what Kincaid said in May:

“After the season ended, I talked to a lot of doctors who know a lot more than I do regarding the PCL and everything that has to do with health and they advised against it. So, believe them and that kind of went into setting a good foundation for strength around the knee to support it. … Got plenty of opinions from people, you know, great doctors, a bunch of team doctors around the league, and so I went with their suggestions and opinions.”

Kincaid has been practicing without a brace on that left knee this offseason.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Kincaid Finds Plenty Of Opportunity Again

The Bills made no significant additions at TE this offseason, bringing back Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes. Knox and Hawes played more snaps per game than Kincaid last year, largely because they were better blockers, but Kincaid was clearly the top receiving option in his 12 games.

Buffalo’s WR room got a jolt with a March trade for D.J. Moore. He posted career lows in catches (50) and yards (682) last year, while ranking 60th in yards per route and 55th in PFF receiving grade among 76 qualifying WRs. But he tallied a 98-966-6 line in 2024 and had topped 1,100 yards in four of the five seasons before that. He turned just 29 in April.

WR Khalil Shakir also returns after leading Buffalo with 100 and 95 targets the past two seasons.

Moore adds target competition for Kincaid, but it’s still not an especially strong WR corps. There’s room for Kincaid to play a big role.

QB And Offensive Line Remain Strong

QB Josh Allen will be back. He’s led Buffalo to top-9 finishes in passing yards in five of the last six seasons and top-7 finishes in passing TDs in all six.

The offensive line returns four of five starters, with Alec Anderson expected to replace David Edwards at LG. Edwards left for New Orleans in free agency after ranking 14th among 63 guards in PFF’s 2025 pass-blocking grades. Anderson went undrafted in 2022 and has played just 479 snaps since.

That spot will be worth monitoring this summer, but this still projects as a strong O-line.

Will Kincaid Play More This Year?

The Bills fired Sean McDermott in January, ending a nine-year run as HC. The team replaced him by promoting Joe Brady.

Brady spent the past 2.5 seasons as Buffalo’s OC, taking over for Ken Dorsey midway through the 2023 campaign. The Bills went run-heavy over the second half of that season, posting a 48.2% pass rate and 52.0% neutral pass rate. Here’s where Buffalo has ranked in those metrics the last two years: 

We’ll see what the departure of defensive-minded McDermott means for the run-pass split, but we’re expecting this to remain a run-leaning offense in 2026.

It does sound like the Bills want Kincaid on the field more this season. GM Brandon Beane said in February that Kincaid’s limited 2025 playing time was at least partly health related.

"Our No. 1 thing with Dalton is to see if we can get him in a healthier fashion this year, so that we don't have to A: miss games, and then B: limit how much he's playing," Beane said.

Paths To Ceiling

If Kincaid can get back to his rookie-year playing time (68% route rate) and even approach last year’s per-route efficiency, he could score as a top-6 fantasy TE.

This is a former first-round pick with a path to plenty of targets in a high-scoring offense.

Risk Factors

Kincaid’s playing time has dropped in three straight seasons because of injuries and run-blocking deficiencies. If that trend continues, and he loses target share to Moore, Kincaid could prove entirely unreliable as a fantasy starter.