Talent-Rich Eagles Offense Really Needs This Experiment to Work

Jalen Hurts

2025 Role & Results

Hurts Lost His Weekly Edge

Hurts finished 2025 as the QB9 in total fantasy points (depending on your format) and QB8 in points per game.

That would be a fine season for most QBs, but it marked Hurts’ worst fantasy output yet. Here are his previous points-per-game finishes in our default scoring:

• 2021: QB10 (23.2)
• 2022: QB2 (27.9)
• 2023: QB3 (24.4)
• 2024: QB5 (23.6)

Even the one year Hurts ranked lower than he did in 2025 found him averaging nearly 2 more points per game than last year’s 21.3. And the depletion showed in his limited high-end weeks as well.

Hurts posted just three top-5 scoring weeks. Seven other QBs generated more, while eight others matched him.

That made Hurts a clear disappointment at his QB4 ADP.

Hurts Ran Less. Everything Followed.

Hurts notably fell off in rushing production last season. His 6.6 attempts per game fell well below any of his previous starting seasons, dragging the yardage and TDs down with them:

That still gave him the third-most rushing fantasy points among QBs for the season but just the sixth-most rushing points per game, narrowly ahead of Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes.

Hurts scrambled on a career-low 7.3% of his dropbacks -- down from 8.6% in 2024 -- but the real culprit was a dramatic decline in designed rushing attempts. Check out these totals by year:

• 2020: 30
• 2021: 59
• 2022: 53
• 2023: 36
• 2024: 42
• 2025: 17

Philly’s passing game suffered overall as well. That didn’t show up as much in Hurts’ stats, because he increased his pass attempts per game by 4.4 over 2024 and logged a career-high 5.5% passing-TD rate. But his completion rate fell short of his previous three seasons (lowest since WR A.J. Brown arrived), and his passing-success rate hit a career low.

That final number doesn’t correlate directly to fantasy scoring, but it signals the offensive struggles that led the team to a mere 19th-place finish in scoring and 24th in total yards. Those rankings look especially bad vs. the first four seasons of Hurts and HC Nick Sirianni:

We’ll see this season how much of the problem was Hurts and how much was now-departed OC Kevin Patullo.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

This year brings several changes that figure to significantly impact the offense.

The first, of course, was the team dumping Patullo. It’s tough to know just how much of the blame he deserves for last season’s debacle, especially when you consider that Patullo spent the previous four seasons as the team’s pass-game coordinator and had worked with Sirianni since 2018 with the Colts.

But in addition to the lagging numbers, the Philly offense just didn’t look right when you watched the games. So that move had to be made.

The Eagles replaced Patullo with Sean Mannion, a former NFL backup QB who spent the past two years on Green Bay’s offensive coaching staff.

It’s a bold move to tap a 34-year-old who has spent just one year as an offensive assistant, one as a QBs coach, and none calling offensive plays. We can’t really know until the season starts whether it’s a truly helpful selection.

Philly Divorces QB from No. 1 WR

The big on-field move was trading WR A.J. Brown to the Patriots. Brown led the Eagles in targets each of the past four seasons. He averaged 84.8 receptions, 1,258.5 yards, and 8.0 TDs across those years and had a friendship with Hurts that dated back to long before they were teammates.

Brown’s relationship with the team and Hurts also seemed rockier in 2025, so it’s possible moving on helps the unit jell better in 2026. We’ll see.

The Eagles also spent a Round 1 pick on WR Makai Lemon, trading up from No. 23 to secure him at 20th overall. Lemon closed his three-year USC run as a unanimous first-team All-American and winner of the Fred Biletnikoff Award (top FBS WR) in 2025. He delivered 79 catches, 1,156 yards, and 11 TDs in that campaign while exceeding 3.0 yards per route in each of his final two seasons.

Expect Lemon to join incumbents WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert as this year’s top three Eagles in targets. Philly also acquired WR Dontayvion Wicks from the Packers -- where he played under Mannion -- signed WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in free agency and drafted TE Eli Stowers in Round 2.

There’s enough pass-catching talent -- plus RB Saquon Barkley -- to support a Hurts rebound, if his play and the new scheme are ready for it.

What Does Hurts Need to Improve?

Hurts' advanced passing metrics don't suggest a drop-off in performance. His Pro Football Focus passing grade actually rebounded from a career low among his starting seasons in 2024. His big-time throw rate (5.0%) matched a career high, while the turnover-worthy play rate (2.0%) was the second-lowest of his career.

One area that could use a rebound is medium-range passing, throws traveling 10-19 yards downfield. According to PFF, Hurts posted career lows in completion rate, yards per attempt, and total yards on throws in that range last season.

That seems like a scheme issue, especially when you look at the numbers across his five starting campaigns:

We’ll see what Mannion can do about that issue, but Lemon and Stowers both profile as players who should see plenty of their targets in that range. 

Lemon should start right away. Stowers seems more likely to see limited time. He only transitioned from QB to TE midway through college, arrived in Round 2, must contend with Goedert for playing time, and reportedly had a quiet spring.

Rushing Will Be Key to Potential Rebound

Mannion hasn’t revealed much about his scheme, though he did allow in May that Hurts’ rushing “will be a part of it, but it won’t be the only part of it.”

It’ll need to be a bigger part of it for Hurts to return to the top of the position in fantasy scoring. Sheer offensive improvement would help that area as well. Hurts saw dramatic declines last season in his red-zone rushing attempts and carries inside the 10-yard line:

Unless the offense simply keeps struggling, Hurts should rebound at least somewhat as a scorer. If his rushing bounces back, Lemon settles in quickly, and the offense improves overall, Hurts has already shown top-3 fantasy upside.

But Questions Will Linger

The fact that Mannion has never run an offense or called plays obviously makes him a total unknown heading into the season.

Lemon looks like a good player, but expecting him to equal A.J. Brown would probably be unfair. Can DeVonta Smith and others make up enough production to cover the loss of Brown?

We won’t know those answers until the season arrives.

Saquon Barkley

2025 Role & Results

Top-3 Cost; Mid-RB2 Returns

If you drafted Barkley last season, then you probably bristle at even seeing his name. And you didn’t need to draft him to notice a precipitous production drop vs. 2024.

Barkley finished 2025 ranked:

• 14th among RBs in total PPR points
• 16th in PPR points per game
• 15th in total half-PPR points and points per game
• 14th in total non-PPR points
• 15th in non-PPR points per game

That’s not an awful fantasy season … unless you went among the position’s top 3 in ADP.

Barkley reached the weekly PPR top 12 in just five of his 16 appearances, including just one week among the position’s top 6.

Contrast that with his 2024, which included nine top-12 weeks among 16 appearances, with eight of those among the top 6 and four weeks as the top-scoring RB overall.

Workload Stayed Elite

The workload wasn’t a problem. Barkley actually drew a slightly larger share of Philly carries (61.0%, sixth among RBs) than he did in 2024 (57.9%, 13th). His target share climbed as well, from 9.6% in 2024 (21st among RBs) to 10.9% (12th).

The biggest problem was his offense. Philly dropped from seventh in scoring and eighth in total yards to 19th and 24th, respectively. That helped produce a decline of 104 in total offensive plays and 143 fewer team rushes.

Although the Eagles won the division both years, the 11-6 version of 2025 didn’t spend nearly as much time leading (more favorable rushing conditions). The offense also looked far more disjointed under first-time OC Kevin Patullo. Kellen Moore, who called plays as the 2024 OC, left to become head coach of the Saints.

O-line injuries hurt as well. RT Lane Johnson missed seven games and left four others early. LG C Cam Jurgens sat out two games and left three others early. Landon Dickerson lost just one game to injury but left four others early.

The team finished 16th in ESPN’s run-block win rate after ranking ninth in 2024. The No. 30 ranking in adjusted line yards marked an even steeper drop from 2024’s No. 20 finish.

3.8 Yards Before Contact Became 2.5

That all contributed to Barkley’s efficiency tumble, though you can still find reason for optimism hidden in those numbers:

The optimism lies in Barkley's missed tackles forced per attempt, which essentially matched his 2024 mark and ranked as the second-best rate of his career. That suggests he remained the same caliber of runner independent of his blocking.

As for that blocking, Barkley’s 2.5 yards before contact per attempt last season marked a steep drop from the previous season’s 3.8. But the lower number still matched the second-best rate of his career and also put him right around last year’s league average.

That means even an injury-depleted version of Philly’s O-line still offers Barkley more help than he tended to get from his Giants blockers.

The Eagles don’t help his receiving outlook, though. Barkley’s 2.3 catches per game last season topped his 2.1 from the previous year. But his two Philly campaigns have produced his two lowest marks in receptions per game and receiving yards per game.

Here’s how those numbers look overall for his two stints:

• Giants: 3.9 receptions, 28.4 yards
• Eagles: 2.2 receptions, 17.2 yards

Injury History & Durability

Philly has been good for Barkley’s health. Although he has picked up occasional dings, Barkley has yet to be listed as questionable entering a game with the Eagles. The lone time he arrived as doubtful came in Week 18 of 2024, a game in which Philly rested starters after clinching playoff positioning (and the team listed Barkley for “rest”).

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Barkley Owns This Backfield

Barkley’s role remains clear and beyond competition. Philly’s most significant backfield addition is Dameon Pierce, who washed out in Houston and arrived on a small one-year deal. He has a better chance of missing the regular-season roster than mattering.

Tank Bigsby will continue to back up Barkley after arriving via early September trade last season. He logged just 62 carries from his Week 2 arrival through the playoff loss, with 16 of those coming in the Week 18 game Barkley sat out (starters’ rest) and 17 in a 31-0 drubbing of the Raiders that Barkley left in the third quarter.

Expect another dominant workload for the 29-year-old starter.

Philly’s Best Upgrade Is Simple Health

Philly’s biggest personnel changes came at WR, where they traded A.J. Brown to New England after drafting Makai Lemon in Round 1. We’ll see whether that portends any further rushing lean, but that’s tough to project for a team already among the league’s most run-heavy.

What Barkley needs most is the offensive line to stay healthy. As of now, all the starters are fully healthy. And RG Tyler Steen heads into his second full season in the lineup. That should mean further growth to his game, but Pro Football Focus already graded him solidly in both run and pass blocking.

Sean Mannion’s First Test Starts Here

The biggest offensive change might be the coordinator change. Philly dumped Patullo after a disastrous offensive season. That can’t possibly be a bad move after the Eagles looked disjointed in their offensive operation for much of 2025.

That said, Patullo had spent the previous seven seasons working under Nick Sirianni. So it’s tough to pin all the blame on him (and the O-line injuries).

New OC Sean Mannion will call plays for the first time after spending just two years on Matt LaFleur's staff in Green Bay, including only one as a QBs coach. That's a thin coaching résumé for the former six-year NFL backup QB.

Early assessments of Mannion’s scheme say we should expect the QB to line up under center more often, the run blocking to use more stretch-zone approaches, and for Philly to run more play action. RT Lane Johnson has said -- more than once -- that he’s excited:

Top-6 Barkley Needs the Offense Back

There are three keys to Barkley’s season going well:

1. His health
2. His O-line’s health
3. The offense’s health

We have no reason to doubt the veteran RB’s physical ability at this point, and the O-line heads toward the season with no injury concerns.

The offense? We can’t really know how that will look until the season begins. But we can expect a hefty workload for the star RB. If the new scheme meshes well with a healthy, athletic O-line, then Barkley carries upside into the position’s top 6.

He’ll still likely need TD luck and higher-level rushing efficiency than most other RBs going in the first two rounds because of lower receiving usage compared with those guys.

Hurts and the Blocking Must Adjust Fast

Staying healthy at RB requires plenty of luck, so it’s always possible that works against Barkley in 2026 after he escaped significant issues the past two seasons. But that factor’s not enough to ding his outlook at draft time.

The risk factors to watch for through camp and preseason will be injuries to any of the O-line starters -- especially either OT or C Cam Jurgens -- and any signal that there are hiccups in running the new scheme. That could show up in the blocking or in Jalen Hurts.

DeVonta Smith

2025 Role & Results

Four TDs Flattened the Season

Smith somewhat quietly finished 18th among WRs in total PPR points last season. It felt quieter because a career-low 4 TDs left him just WR30 in PPR points per game.

Smith’s 11.9 points per game marked a tumble of …

• 3.4 from his his 2024 scoring average
• 2.4 vs. 2023
• And 3.1 vs. 2022

He did, at least, beat the 10.9 points per game of his rookie year.

Smith reached the top 12 in WR scoring just three times among 17 appearances. He barely played in a Week 18 game that found the Eagles resting starters, and yet his WR32 finish that week (3 catches, 52 yards) marked his eighth-best weekly ranking of the year.

He landed among the top 24 receivers seven times.

The previous season found Smith logging eight top-25 finishes among just 13 outings and matching last year’s three top-12s. All three of those landed him inside the top 7.

No Issue with Smith's Role

There wasn’t anything wrong with Smith’s usage. His 22.7% target share ranked 20th in the league, 19th among wideouts. He ran a route on 86.4% of Eagles pass plays, 14th-highest in the league.

Smith’s target share lined up with his career numbers, including the 2021 rookie season that has been his only year to date without A.J. Brown:

• 2021: 20.4%
• 2022: 24.8%
• 2023: 20.9%
• 2024: 25.0%
• 2025: 22.7%

Interestingly, Smith drew 26.0% of Eagles targets through Week 8, which ranked 11th among WRs and edged Brown. After the bye, however, Brown climbed to 27.4% (sixth among WRs), while Smith dipped to 22.7% (19th).

Smith increased his air-yards share slightly for the second straight season, but it still stayed within the range of his previous three years. If any category best shows Brown's impact, it's this one.

• 2021: 41.4%
• 2022: 33.1%
• 2023: 31.7%
• 2024: 32.5%
• 2025: 33.5%

Smith found meager receiving talent around him with those 2021 Eagles. He led No. 2 Dallas Goedert by 28 targets (while playing two more games than the TE), with Quez Watkins, Jalen Reagor, and then two RBs following them.

It’s easy to see why Smith dominated Philly air yards that season, and his share ranked 14th among WRs despite a target share that ranked just 26th. Bet on Smith reclaiming that lead with Brown gone.

The Offense Dragged Everyone Down

The biggest problem for everyone was the offense. The Eagles fell to 24th in total yards after ranking 14th, third, eighth, and eighth through HC Nick Sirianni’s first four seasons. They also ranked just 19th in scoring after finishes of 12th, third, seventh, and seventh.

Philly threw the ball a bit more than in 2024 but still ranked just 24th in the league in attempts and 23rd in passing yards, so it remained a lackluster environment for receiving production.

And really, the offense just wasn’t working. The Eagles finished 17th in total offensive DVOA, 17th in expected points added per play, and 19th in EPA per dropback.

That followed the team losing OC Kellen Moore to the Saints’ head-coaching job and replacing him with Kevin Patullo. The replacement had been with Sirianni for seven years, dating back to their time on Frank Reich’s Colts staff, and Patullo had spent the past four seasons as Philly’s pass-game coordinator.

So his promotion made sense, but it clearly didn’t work.

Injury History & Durability

Smith has stayed remarkably healthy through five seasons, especially for such a spindly player by NFL standards. He has lost no games to injury outside of 2024, when a concussion cost him one early contest and a hamstring injury claimed two others late in the year.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

This is Smith’s First Real WR1 Shot

Smith’s headed for a setup we really haven’t seen for him before.

He got his first season without A.J. Brown, but he was a rookie. He had a nice year, but Smith has obviously developed since then. The four years since, however, have provided only three regular-season games that didn’t include Brown.

Smith racked up a 33% target share across those contests -- two in 2024 and one last year -- drawing 9+ targets in each and tallying at least 6 catches in all three.

But Brown’s departure followed the Eagles trading up to draft WR Makai Lemon 20th overall. That draft capital obviously doesn’t guarantee that Lemon will be good, but it probably means he’s better -- and will garner more targets -- than the WRs Smith contended with back in 2021.

That said, Smith should see No. 1 WR status for the first time since that debut campaign. And any target-share increase can help Smith leverage his high-level efficiency.

His 69.5% catch rate ranks 15th among 89 WRs who have seen at least 200 targets since Smith entered the league in 2021. Smith also ranks 17th in yards per target (9.1) among that group. Only seven of the players ahead of him in that category have averaged more receiving yards per game over that span.

No One Here Challenges Him

In addition to Lemon, the Eagles return TE Dallas Goedert and added WR Dontayvion Wicks via trade and WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in free agency. There’s no challenge from that group. Goedert has trailed Smith in targets and catches in all five of their shared seasons.

QB Jalen Hurts remains, which might seem like a negative to some observers. But despite loads of negative press, Hurts’ passing metrics didn’t look meaningfully different last year vs. the rest of his starting run. At the very least, Hurts doesn’t damage Smith’s outlook vs. anyone who could have replaced him this offseason.

The whole Philly offense would benefit from a healthier O-line after RT Lane Johnson, C Cam Jurgens, and LG Landon Dickerson all lost some time to injury last year.

The Fix Starts With Offensive Competence

The biggest change needed vs. 2025, however, is simply better offensive performance. The on-field product appeared to display significant issues in scheme design and play calling, and Philly replaced Patullo after the season.

New OC Sean Mannion has generated some excitement among players with his scheme, which is expected to include more play-action passing. But he’s a first-time play caller who spent just two years on Green Bay’s coaching staff before landing this gig.

Moving on from Patullo should be good, but we won’t know until the season about Mannion’s true influence.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Is the Dream Template

Smith might be the most insulated among fantasy-relevant Eagles to any of the team’s lingering questions or risk factors.

A.J. Brown’s departure all but guarantees Smith will lead the team in targets. The only question is by how much. And even if the run game and overall offense don’t rebound significantly, more trailing game scripts would likely boost passing volume. And that would almost necessarily help the team’s lead receiver.

Smith hit a 25% target share in 2024 (adjusted for games missed) and finished that season 17th in PPR points per game. He hit 24.8% in 2022 and finished 15th. Each of those campaigns found him trailing Brown in that category.

Smith’s capable of landing inside WR1 territory for fantasy even without a truly dominant target share. But Brown’s departure vacates a role that placed him top-11 among WRs in target share (adjusted for games missed) each of his four years with the team:

• 2022: 25.4% (11th)
• 2023: 27.4% (eighth)
• 2024: 31.1% (second)
• 2025: 27.5% (ninth)

Brown turned those shares into PPR points-per-game finishes of 13th, eighth, 13th, and 12th, all while competing with Smith for targets. It's fair to assume Lemon won't immediately be as good as Smith or Brown, which would boost Smith's chances of maxing out his 2026 target share.

Jimmy Kempski of Philly Voice wrote in April that “there are some within the Eagles’ organization who believe that if Brown were no longer with the team, that Smith can have a similar jump in production that Jaxon Smith-Njigba had in Seattle once DK Metcalf was out of the way.”

If career-best target share meets with proven high-level efficiency and even modest offensive rebound for the team, Smith’s ceiling could climb into the position’s top 6.

WR11 Already Prices In the Leap

Smith’s durability, efficiency, and consistent role in Philly’s concentrated pass distribution give him a pretty high floor.

The downside case would find his draft price climbing higher than his target share. It’s possible Smith doesn’t exceed his current career high of 25% in that category. Just like in his rookie season, he could lead the Eagles in that category without drawing a truly dominant share.

He also hasn’t been a huge TD scorer through five seasons, reaching the end zone on a somewhat modest 8% of his receptions. And if Philly’s offense finds more struggles in spite of the OC switch, then scoring opportunities could prove a little scarce.

Still, a healthy Smith should be a pretty good bet for top-20 level fantasy scoring.

Makai Lemon

2025 Role & Results

Lemon closed a three-year run at USC with a tremendous final campaign. He tallied 79 catches for 1,156 yards and 11 TDs en route to unanimous All-America status and winning the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver.

Lemon became just the sixth drafted WR since 2021 to hit 3.0+ career yards per route vs. both man and zone coverage. He joins a group that’s been 80% good:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Jaylen Waddle
• Ja’Marr Chase
• DeVonta Smith
• D’Wayne Eskridge

(Yeah, that last one’s funny.)

Lemon accounted for 30.2% of the Trojans’ receptions in 2025, 32.4% of the receiving yardage, and 44.0% of the TD catches -- despite sitting out the team’s bowl game. Among the teammates he dominated was Ja’Kobi Lane, who went to the Ravens in Round 3 of this year’s draft.

His breakthrough sophomore campaign didn’t find such dominating numbers but did include Lemon leading in receptions and receiving yards over Lane and Zachariah Branch, who would transfer to Georgia ahead of last season and then land with the Falcons in Round 3 this April.

That’s two straight years of leading NFL-caliber WRs before declaring early for the NFL.

Lemon went third among WRs in this year's draft, well behind Carnell Tate (fourth overall) and Jordyn Tyson (eighth). But the Eagles still moved up to No. 20 to get him ahead of the Steelers, who were on the phone with Lemon and ready to take him at 21 when the trade went through.

Injury History & Durability

Lemon brings a pretty clean injury history that appears to only include a 2024 concussion. He has dealt with some minor hamstring trouble this spring that will be worth watching through his first training camp.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Lemon Has Room to Matter Quickly

Lemon finds big opportunity in a Philly offense that shipped A.J. Brown to New England. Brown drew these target shares over his four years with the Eagles:

• 2022: 25.4% (11th)
• 2023: 27.4% (eighth)
• 2024: 31.1% (second)
• 2025: 27.5% (ninth)

Incumbent DeVonta Smith should snag the leading share of targets in 2026, but that ascension would still leave available Smith’s shares of the past four years:

• 2022: 24.8%
• 2023: 20.9%
• 2024: 25.0%
• 2025: 22.7%

Lemon’s obviously not a lock to assume the workload Smith has gotten in any season. It’s worth noting that Smith’s smallest target share to date (20.4%) came in his 2021 rookie campaign when he beat his nearest teammate by 28 targets.

Will Rookie Face Sneaky Competition?

The Eagles also acquired WR Dontayvion Wicks via trade this offseason and signed WR Marquise Brown. Wicks is the more interesting import.

Philly traded a 2026 fifth-rounder and a 2027 sixth-rounder for a 25-year-old who has yet to reach 40 catches in a season. The team also promptly extended his contract for a year at a noteworthy $12.5 million. And Wicks hails from the same Green Bay offense from which the Eagles plucked new OC Sean Mannion. It can’t hurt his chances to have a coordinator who already knows his game.

Two questions will go a long way toward explaining how Lemon and Wicks, and maybe others, fit together:

1. How will Lemon handle playing outside in the pros?
2. How often will these Eagles run three WRs?

Sumer Sports had last year’s Eagles ranked 15th in usage of “11” personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) at 59.3%. That actually edged the Packers (55.6%, 22nd), for whom Mannion served as QBs coach.

The previous season, however, found Green Bay up at 67.3% (13th) with a healthier WR corps and Mannion in his first season on staff (offensive assistant). The 2024 Eagles ranked 16th at 59.9%. 

This is the route-count swing factor for Lemon. More three-wide sets raise his floor. More two-WR looks force him to win an outside job fast.

We’ll See Where and How the New Guys Fit Best

Lemon spent 75.6% of his college pass snaps in the slot, per Pro Football Focus. Wicks, meanwhile, has gone 39.3% slot and 58.9% wide through his first three NFL seasons, and those numbers skewed a little further toward outside positioning before Green Bay lost primary slot man Jayden Reed for more than half of 2025.

Many evaluators viewed Lemon as a slot-first prospect entering the draft, but the Eagles clearly believe he can move around the formation.

HC Nick Sirianni said after they drafted Lemon: “Obviously, this guy can do both. He has a lot of versatility. He has the skill set to do both. We’ll see where we start him off when he gets here.”

GM Howie Roseman added: “He has the ability to separate in man coverage, out of the slot, he can play outside. Physical player. Really good with the ball in his hands. Really good hands. Good in zone coverage. Has really good instincts.”

Those assessments weren’t surprising, of course, after the Eagles showed us how much they liked Lemon by trading up (with the Cowboys) to land him.

Competition Looks Light Overall

Although Lemon -- and Wicks -- face obvious role and performance uncertainty in the first year for each player with the new team, they face light target competition beyond Smith.

TE Dallas Goedert returns, but on a mere one-year deal at age 31. He has coexisted fantasy wise with Smith and Brown the past four years. Goedert also brings durability risk after sitting out 2+ games each of the past six years.

Hollywood Brown was a first-round pick way back in 2019 but has reached 4.0 receptions per game just twice among six seasons in which he played more than two games. He averaged just 3.1 catches and 36.7 yards last year for a Chiefs offense that struggled at WR.

Philly Needs Passing Juice, Not Hype

Philly’s switch to Mannion from one-year OC Kevin Patullo carries upside potential after the 2025 offense sank vs. Sirianni’s first four seasons. How much Mannion helps the unit, though, probably won’t reveal itself until the regular season.

Mannion has spent just two seasons as an NFL assistant after six as an NFL backup QB. This will be his first time calling plays.

Early assessments of his scheme have players excited, though that tends to be the way with new schemes in the offseason. Mannion’s plan reportedly includes more play-action passing than last year’s Eagles ran. That would likely help a pass offense that was merely OK in 2025.

Otherwise, the highlighted changes seem to lean toward helping the running game rebound. Of course, better rushing performance would help the offense as a whole.

Hurts Has to Use the Middle More

Lemon’s best-case scenario would find the Eagles still around the middle of the league (or lower) in running three-WR sets. That would mean less competing with Wicks (or other WRs) for targets and would help his chances of assuming a target share in the DeVonta Smith range of the past five years.

The rookie could still fare well even with more multi-WR sets. Such alignments could increase his time in the slot, where we’ve already seen Lemon deliver terrific college production.

That scenario would require more passing over the middle from QB Jalen Hurts than we saw last year. Accuracy to that area hasn’t been a particular strength for Hurts, but Lemon should prove more capable than Goedert of adjusting to off-target throws and optimizing after-catch production.

It’s reasonable to see WR3-range upside to Lemon, with a chance he hits the top 24 if target share and efficiency work in his favor.

The WR3 Path Isn’t Clean

Lemon faces several potential limitations even if he stays healthy.

Wicks hasn’t been able to sustain a meaningful role, but he has flashed upside through three seasons and could easily find more opportunity with a familiar coach and a shallower WR depth chart. His $12.5 million extension says the Eagles at least hope his best lies ahead.

Even if Wicks remains a complementary piece, though, Lemon could struggle to produce immediately while working primarily outside. He’ll obviously face tougher coverage in the pros than he did in college, and the top NFL corners tend to play outside.

DeVonta Smith led Philly by 28 targets as a 2021 rookie, averaged a career-best 14.3 yards per catch, and still managed to rank just 47th among WRs in PPR points per game. The Eagles traded up to 10th (also with Dallas) to get Smith that year.

Dallas Goedert

2025 Role & Results

The Usage Was Familiar. The TDs Weren’t.

All the TDs that eluded Goedert through his first seven NFL seasons found him in 2025.

The veteran TE averaged just 3.4 TDs per year through 2024, at a mere 6.9% TD rate. But last season found him exploding for 11 scores at an 18.3% rate. Only Davante Adams tallied more TD catches.

And those TDs carried Goedert to these fantasy finishes:

• TE7 in total PPR points
• TE6 in PPR points per game
• TE3 in half-PPR points
• TE5 in half-PPR points per game
• TE2 in non-PPR points
• TE5 in non-PPR points per game

Goedert tied for 11th in expected PPR and half-PPR points per game. He tied for 10th in expected non-PPR points per game.

That usage lined up with Goedert’s history. And although he got a big boost from TDs in 2025, the veteran has delivered top-12 PPR production for six straight years. In fact, his 2018 rookie season marks the only time Goedert has ever finished lower than 13th in PPR points per game. Here’s how he has ranked since:

• 2019: TE13
• 2020: TE9
• 2021: TE9
• 2022: TE5
• 2023: TE12
• 2024: TE10

His YAC Fell Off Hard

What we didn’t get in 2025 was the best version of Goedert. He compiled a career-low 9.9 yards per catch, thanks largely to a career-worst 3.9 yards after catch per reception.

His 7.5-yard average depth of target came in higher than any of his previous three seasons, which accounted for some of that. But that aDOT aligned with his 7.2-yard career average, while the 3.9 YAC per reception trailed his pre-2025 rate (5.9) by 2 yards.

It didn’t help that Goedert ranked just 26th in catchable-target rate among 49 TEs who saw at least 30 targets, but his 85.0% in that category wasn’t far from his previous four seasons with Jalen Hurts as starter:

• 2021: 88.9% (seventh of 44)
• 2022: 86.8% (12th of 43)
• 2023: 80.5% (33rd of 43)
• 2024: 88.5% (eighth of 44)
• 2025: 85.0% (26th of 49)

Goedert Benefited in Spite of the Mess

Goedert's TD binge came in the worst Philly offense of Nick Sirianni's five years as HC by nearly every measure:

The Eagles made a few key changes on offense in the wake of that tumble, which we’ll get to in the next section.

Injury History & Durability

Goedert has lost at least one game to injury in six of the past seven seasons. (He sat out two games in 2021, but one was COVID and the other team rest in Week 18.)

Here were the other time-consuming issues by year:

• 2019: calf
• 2020: calf
• 2022: shoulder fracture
• 2023: forearm fracture
• 2024: hamstring and knee
• 2025: knee

Consider the upper-body fractures freak accidents from awkward falls in a rough sport. But the history of lower-body issues carries durability risk going forward.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

One-Year Deal. Same Starting Job.

Goedert signed a one-year, $7 million contract to return to the Eagles rather than leave via the open market. That marks the second straight year of reduced pay for the 31-year-old TE. He took a pay cut to $10 million last year on the final season of a four-year deal that averaged $14.25 million per year at signing.

Consider that more a signal of Goedert’s career stage than a harbinger of role decline.

The Eagles drafted TE Eli Stowers in Round 2, but the converted QB spent just three college seasons at the position and will likely need some development time. He particularly -- and unsurprisingly -- showed a lack of effectiveness as a blocker.

Blocking obviously doesn’t score your TE any fantasy points, but it does help the guy get onto the field and stay there.

Philly otherwise traded WR A.J. Brown to New England while importing:

• WR Makai Lemon with the 20th pick of the draft
• WR Dontayvion Wicks via trade
• WR Marquise Brown on a mere one-year, $5 million contract

The Lemon and Wicks additions have the potential to absorb Brown’s vacated targets and perhaps present a stronger third-WR presence than Philly’s had any year since Goedert arrived in 2018.

But there’s also the chance that the new guys (plus DeVonta Smith) don’t eat up all of Brown’s vacated work. There’s potential for upward mobility from Goedert’s No. 8 ranking among TEs in target share last season (adjusted for games missed).

Patullo’s Exit Opens a Better Path

The Eagles’ 2025 offensive downturn got OC Kevin Patullo fired. Sean Mannion takes over as an unproven play caller after spending just two years on Green Bay’s offensive staff: one as an assistant, one as QBs coach.

His scheme has curried favor with players early, but the offseason tends to find excitement over new ideas. We can’t know how successful Mannion will be until we get into his first season on the job.

Early praise has centered on changes that could energize the run game and the likelihood of more play-action passing. Each of those factors would be good for the offense on whole, benefits that should trickle down to Goedert.

The 2025 O-line struggled to stay healthy, notably losing RT Lane Johnson, C Cam Jurgens, and LG Landon Dickerson for patches. Those issues did not increase Goedert’s blocking responsibilities, however.

So don’t look to O-line health as a meaningful factor in the tight end’s 2026 outlook.

He Already Showed the Ceiling

Goedert’s ultimate upside would include staying healthier while maintaining his enhanced scoring role in a rebounding offense. We’ve already seen that ceiling can reach into the top 5 at a position that relies less on target volume than WR does.

TE15 Price Mitigates Risk Factors

The primary risk factor: Goedert’s old. The good news is that 31 ain’t as old for a TE as it is for WRs or, especially, RBs. But every TE archetype we use for our dynasty aging curves finds 31-year-olds historically producing at 85% of peak or lower.

Goedert could also find less opportunity if Lemon or Wicks steps up -- and especially if they both deliver.

There’s also the aforementioned durability risk, of course, but that’s easy to insure against or even deal with in season, especially at Goedert’s likely modest draft cost.