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The forecast for today's Jaguars-Chiefs game calls for periods of heavy rain. The good news is that winds are expected to be only 6-7 mph. They aren't ideal conditions, but it's not enough for us to adjust our projections for these passing games. You might use the weather as a tiebreaker if deciding between 2 similarly ranked players, though.

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Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes won't play vs. the Chargers this weekend, HC Andy Reid said Wednesday. QB Blaine Gabbert will start in a meaningless game for the Chiefs, who are locked in as the AFC's No. 3 seed. Reid also said that "some" other starters will not play on Sunday. We imagine that'll include TE Travis Kelce, RB Isiah Pacheco, and potentially WR Rashee Rice. This is an offense to avoid in Week 18 fantasy lineups.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes completed 21 of 29 passes for 245 yards and a TD in Sunday's win over the Bengals. It wasn't a bad outing -- though he did lose a fumble -- though he finished just 24th among fantasy QBs by ESPN scoring. That knocks him down to QB12 in fantasy points per game for the year. The Chiefs almost have to improve their pass-catching corps for 2024. We'll see exactly how they go about doing so. If Mahomes' early best-ball draft position sits anywhere near his 2023 finish, then he'll be a value. We'd bet he'll still go inside the top 5 at the position, though. At that level, it's probably worth going light on Mahomes in early drafts. We certainly don't have any long-term concern for his fantasy value.

Week 11 saw the struggles of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes continue. The reigning NFL MVP completed 24 of 42 passes for 177 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT vs. the Eagles on Monday night. He was able to supplement some fantasy value with his legs (38 rushing yards), though the rainy conditions in Kansas City and the lack of support from his teammates really let him down. The Chiefs’ offense now leads the NFL in drops (23) and has failed to score a TD in the second half of a game for three games in a row. In that span, Mahomes is averaging just 200.7 passing yards per game with a 74.2 passer rating, well below his career average of 100.1. His path doesn’t get any easier down the stretch either. The Chiefs’ remaining schedule ranks as the fifth-toughest for QBs per our adjusted fantasy points allowed. Mahomes' prolific talent and track record of success will keep him ranked as a QB1 weekly, though there is reason for fantasy managers to be at least slightly concerned about him.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes hit rock bottom against Denver, managing only 241 passing yards on 38 attempts. Mahomes targeted 11 different Chiefs on Sunday, with Travis Kelce again leading the way (6-58 on 9 targets). Skyy Moore dropped a would-be TD, but Mahomes also threw 2 INTs and lost 1 fumble. The star QB reportedly battled the flu, and he certainly didn’t look close to 100% in this one. Look for a bounce-back in Week 9 vs. Miami.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has been added to the injury report with an illness but will play vs. the Broncos later today, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. At this point, there's no reason to believe that Mahomes' fantasy production will be affected. We'll let you know if that changes.

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