Detroit Lions 2026 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• RB Isiah Pacheco
• WR Greg Dortch
• OT Blake Miller
• C Cade Mays

Key Departures

• RB David Montgomery
• OT Taylor Decker
• WR Khalif Raymond

Notable Coaching Changes

• OC John Morton Out
• OC Drew Petzing In

Jared Goff

Draft Sharks Verdict

Goff retains a high floor tied to a premium passing environment. He has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 29 TDs in each of the past four seasons. The Lions bring back a strong corps of weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta as well. Plus, new OC Drew Petzig gives a chance for more passing with his Cardinals’ offense having a 63.4% neutral pass rate last season compares to the Lions’ 57.8%. That keeps Goff's floor high. He is worth drafting as a strong superflex QB2 and a 1-QB streamer, and his QB16 spring best ball ADP offers solid value. 

Customize Goff’s projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

2025 Role & Results

Consistent Production Again in 2025

Goff delivered a strong fantasy season through passing volume and efficiency.

He threw for 4,564 yards and 34 TDs, both second among QBs. He completed 68.0% of his passes, posted a 105.5 passer rating, and tossed just 8 INTs. That now makes four straight seasons where he has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 29 TDs. 

Goff turned that into nine top-12 fantasy finishes, with his worst weeks landing at QB21. He finished QB15 in fantasy points per game.

Goff's rushing remained a non-factor.

A Middle-of-the-Pack Pace Hid Top-End Volume

Goff ranked fourth in pass attempts (578), second in completions (393), seventh in dropbacks (623), and fourth in passing first downs (225). 

Detroit gave him enough work to matter every week. And the offense was good enough to turn that work into high-end production.

Goff excelled statistically despite the Lions only ranking 17th in pace (62.5 plays per game), 19th in pass rate (58.7%), and 20th in neutral pass rate (57.8%).

The 2026 question is whether new OC Drew Petzing adds passing volume. Detroit had a 57.8% neutral pass rate in 2025 while Petzing’s 2025 offense jumped to 63.4%. Even a partial move in that direction would help Goff’s projection.

Efficient, Safe, but Rarely Downfield

Goff’s efficiency was strong.

He ranked sixth in PFF adjusted completion rate at 80.2%, 10th in yards per attempt at 7.9, and 10th in expected points added. His 2.0% turnover-worthy play rate (tied for the best in the league among QBs with 300+ dropbacks) also supports the idea that last year’s production was not built on reckless passing.

Goff’s safe and efficient passing got help from a passing plan that typically didn’t attack downfield.

Goff’s intended air yards sat at 6.8 per attempt, his aggressiveness rate was just 12.5%, and Detroit ranked 31st in team average depth of target. It was an accurate, timing-based offense that created production through structure, efficiency, and yards after the catch.

High Powered Offensive Environment Fuels Scoring

Detroit gave Goff one of the league’s best offensive environments.

The Lions ranked fifth in total yards per game, third in passing yards per game, third in passing TDs per game, fourth in yards per pass attempt, and eighth in EPA per play. They still ranked this highly despite the Lions only being 13th in plays per game (62.5 plays per game), 19th in pass rate (58.7%), and 20th in neutral pass rate (57.8%).

The Lions ranked fifth in rushing TDs per game and 12th in rushing yards per game. They also had the second-highest RB target share, which fits Goff’s short-area passing style but also means the offense can support Jahmyr Gibbs without necessarily creating huge fantasy weeks for Goff.

The environment was excellent, but it was not built to maximize Goff’s fantasy scoring.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

The Weapons Still Fit Goff’s Game

Goff’s weapons fit his game well, and he returns his main receiving options.

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the centerpiece. He caught 117 passes for 1,401 yards and 11 TDs, giving Goff one of the league’s best short and intermediate targets. His 591 yards after catch also fit Detroit’s short-aDOT style.

Jameson Williams supplies the vertical element. He topped 1,100 receiving yards, scored 7 TDs, and averaged 17.2 yards per catch. Williams’ skills help keep opponents from sitting on the underneath work that defines the rest of the passing game.

Isaac TeSlaa, Greg Dortch, and rookie Kendrick Law round out the WRs.

Sam LaPorta gives Goff another efficient option over the middle. He caught 40 passes for 489 yards in nine games last year, with an 88.9% catch rate and 2.00 yards per route run.

Gibbs is also key to the passing game. Detroit ranked second in RB target share, and Gibbs caught 77 passes for 616 yards and 5 TDs. The team also added Isiah Pacheco after trading away David Montgomery. 

Detroit’s Offense Survived Every Play Caller So Far

Goff’s 2026 outlook depends heavily on how much of Petzing’s approach carries over. He is expected to call plays for the team. But the offense has already succeeded under multiple play callers.

The Lions ranked fifth in points in 2022, fifth in 2023, and first in 2024 under OC Ben Johnson. The team finished fifth last season, with OC John Morton and HC Dan Campbell calling plays. That consistency makes Goff easier to trust.

The pass-rate trend also moved in his favor last season. Detroit’s pass rate fell from 55.9% in 2022 to 52.2% in 2024 under Ben Johnson. It picked up to 58.7% in 2025 under Morton and Campbell. Neutral pass rate in 2025 was also the highest since 2021 at 57.8% 

Now Petzing arrives after his most pass-heavy season. His pass rate over expected also climbed over his three years calling plays as the Cardinals OC:

Petzing's recent scoring results were mixed, but the talent jump from Arizona to Detroit should help keep the scoring strong.

Goff’s Ceiling Case: Do More of What’s Already Working

Goff continues to provide consistent production on the Lions. He now has four straight seasons with at least 4,400 yards and 29 TDs and hasn’t missed a game over that time.

He has finished as QB8, QB6, QB7, and QB10 in PPR points in each of those seasons. In fantasy points per game, he ranked QB13, QB8, QB16, and QB16. We should see more of that production in 2026.

The weapons support that outcome. St. Brown supplies volume, Williams adds explosive plays, LaPorta boosts efficiency, and Gibbs turns short throws into meaningful production.

Goff does not need to change. He is a consistent QB2 who should replicate similar production to his past four seasons. 

No Rushing Presents Downside

Goff’s lack of rushing presents his biggest risk factor.

Goff had just five scrambles, so he needs passing yards and TDs to hit every week. That makes him more fragile than QBs who can survive mediocre passing days with rushing production.

The second risk is the shape of the passing game. Goff’s 6.8 intended air yards, 12.5% aggressiveness rate, and Detroit’s 31st-ranked aDOT all point to a controlled offense. That has worked for him, but it leaves him dependent on accuracy, YAC, and TD conversion.

Those two factors keep him out of the top QB tiers. Still, his recent production, strong supporting cast, and Petzing's pass-heavy trend make Goff a good bet for useful QB2 production with weekly QB1 upside.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Draft Sharks Verdict

Gibbs looks like one of fantasy football’s safest RBs. His profile is exactly what supports fantasy production: explosive rushing, elite receiving usage, and a high-scoring offense. Gibbs belongs at his early first-round ADP across formats and should come through as a top fantasy scorer as long as Detroit remains one of the league’s better offenses. You can comfortably draft him as the first RB off the board, as high as 1.01. 

Customize Gibbs’ projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

2025 Role & Results

He Scored Like an Elite Back

Gibbs was an elite fantasy producer last season. He ran for 1,223 yards and 13 TDs while adding 77 catches and 616 receiving yards.

He ranked third among RBs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He also ranked seventh in rushing yards and third in rushing TDs.

He scored 366.6 PPR points and averaged 21.6 PPR points per game, both third among RBs. Gibbs also gave fantasy managers strong week-to-week reliability, finishing as a top-12 RB nine times and a top-24 RB 12 times. He fell outside the top 36 just once.

The production came from both rushing and receiving.

That dual-role profile makes him safer than most RBs. He does not need a rushing TD to save his week because the passing-game usage gives him a strong PPR floor.

The Receiving Role Did the Heavy Lifting

Gibbs ranked 11th among RBs in carries, seventh in total touches, third in targets, third in receptions, and sixth in routes. That’s high-end usage, built more on efficiency and receiving than pure rushing volume.

Lions target shares broke down as follows:

No other player topped 5.5%.  (*LaPorta’s share represents the nine games he played.)

This marked the highest target share of Gibbs’ career, following 11.1% in 2024 and 13.1% in 2023.

Gibbs certainly benefits from the strong passing game. Detroit ranked second in RB target share last year.

Explosive as a Runner. Dangerous as a Receiver.

Gibbs generated that fantasy production with strong efficiency.

He averaged 5.0 yards per carry, ranked eighth in rushing yards over expected, and ranked 13th in rush yards over expected per attempt. He also forced 62 missed tackles as a rusher, third-most among RBs.

The explosive plays were a major part of his value. Gibbs ranked fourth among RBs in breakaway yards and ninth in explosive runs, with a long run of 78 yards.

He proved just as good as a receiver. Gibbs ranked second among RBs in PFF receiving grade, third in yards after catch, and ninth in yards per route run.

There is some TD regression risk after 18 total scores, but Gibbs' TD production was not fluky in an offense that ranked fifth in rushing TDs per game and third in passing TDs per game.

Detroit’s 31st-Ranked aDOT Fed the 77 Catches

Detroit gave Gibbs one of the league’s best fantasy environments.

The Lions ranked fifth in total yards per game, eighth in EPA per play, eighth in plays per game, fifth in rushing TDs per game, and second in RB target share.

That last number is key. Detroit’s passing game is built for RB production. The Lions ranked 31st in aDOT (6.51 yards), which helps explain why Gibbs was able to catch 77 passes and pile up 616 receiving yards.

The offense was also balanced enough to support rushing TDs. Detroit ranked 12th in rushing yards per game and fifth in rushing TDs per game, giving Gibbs plenty of scoring chances even with Jared Goff throwing 34 TDs.

This is the ideal setup for a back like Gibbs: enough rushing volume to matter, enough passing volume to stabilize his floor, and enough overall scoring to support elite TD upside.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Pacheco Is Depth, Not a Threat

Gibbs should remain the clear centerpiece of Detroit’s backfield.

Detroit traded David Montgomery to the Texans, then added Isiah Pacheco in free agency. 

Pacheco broke his fibula in 2024 and then struggled in 2025 to make an impact. He averaged just 6.72 PPR points per game, failing to record a top-12 finish.

Pacheco can take some carries, similar to Montgomery. But Gibbs should retain his 2025 role.

The team lacks depth beyond that, with Sione Vaki and Jacob Saylors rounding out the RBs.

St. Brown and Williams Make Running Easier

Gibbs benefits from the talent around him.

Goff threw for 4,564 yards and 34 TDs, keeping Detroit’s offense efficient and productive. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 117 passes for 1,401 yards and 11 TDs. Jameson Williams topped 1,100 yards and added the explosive element. Sam LaPorta was highly efficient in nine games, catching 40 passes for 489 yards.

That supporting cast and strong passing game help keep defenders out of the box. Gibbs ranked 35th in run percentage against 8+ defenders in the box at 21.81%. That same offensive strength helps sustain long drives and present scoring chances.

Petzing’s Pass Lean Helps the Receiving Case

New OC Drew Petzing is expected to call plays and could alter how the offense operates.

The offense’s success under multiple play callers in recent years makes it easier to not worry about the change.

The Lions ranked fifth in points in 2022, fifth in 2023, and first in 2024 under OC Ben Johnson. They ranked fifth last year with OC John Morton and then HC Dan Campbell calling plays.

The pass-rate trend also moved in his favor last season. Detroit’s neutral pass rate fell slightly from 54.3% in 2022 to  53.4% in 2024 under Ben Johnson. It perked back up to 57.2% in 2025 under Morton and Campbell.

Now Petzing arrives after his most pass-heavy season. His pass rate over expected also climbed over his three years calling plays as the Cardinals HC:

Petzing’s Arizona offenses didn’t score very well, ranking 24th, 12th, and 23rd in his three seasons. But he inherits much more talent in Detroit.

Gibbs Can Be RB1 Overall

Gibbs ranked third in PPR points per game while finishing seventh in rushing yards, third in rushing TDs, third in receptions, and third in receiving yards among RBs last season.

If Detroit remains a top-5 scoring offense while Petzing increases offensive pace and pass rate, Gibbs could push even higher.

Pacheco’s also a worse bet for work than Montgomery was, evident in the mere one-year, $1.8 million contract he signed.

Either way, Gibbs does not need a massive workload jump. A similar rushing role plus another elite receiving season would keep him among the top RB scorers. Any increase in routes, targets, or goal-line usage would only boost him further.

Isiah Pacheco Offers Little Threat

Gibbs has little risk with his touches climbing every year of his career.  

Pacheco could be a minor concern, but his one year, $1.8 million contract is evidence that he won’t take much work from Gibbs. We already saw David Montgomery’s workload decrease in the final eight games in the season and Pacheco makes for weaker competition.

Gibbs’ combination of explosiveness, receiving usage, durability, and offensive environment makes him one of the strongest RB bets in fantasy. His receiving and big play ability keeps his floor high.

Isiah Pacheco

Draft Sharks Verdict

Pacheco is attached to one of the league’s best offensive environments. That gives him some late-round appeal. But his individual profile and backfield situation make him more of a contingency bet in case Jahmyr Gibbs goes down with an injury than a standalone fantasy target. Pacheco's RB47 spring best ball ADP makes him a fine late pick. If Gibbs gets hurt, Pacheco should beat that price. If Gibbs plays all 17 games, Pacheco is unlikely to be startable, even in a flex spot.  

Customize his projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

2025 Role & Results

Production Never Turned Fantasy Relevant

Pacheco's 2025 production was limited: 462 rushing yards and 1 TD, plus 19 catches for 101 yards and one receiving score.

He totaled 87.3 PPR points and averaged just 6.72 per game, ranking 48th among RBs in PPR points per game. He had no top-12 finishes and only three top-24 finishes across 13 games.

Pacheco Gets Plenty of Routes, Does Little with Them

Pacheco ranked outside the top 40 RBs in carries (118) and touches (137). He ranked a solid 23rd among all RBs by running 242 routes, but that produced only 26 targets (48th at the position), 19 catches (tied for 47th) and 101 yards (tied for 56th).

The Chiefs’ offense struggled overall, ranking 21st in points per game at 21.3. The lack of scoring combined with Pacheco’s mediocre performance led to poor fantasy output. 

Lack of Explosive Plays Kept Efficiency Ugly

Pacheco did not make a strong efficiency case in 2025.

He averaged 3.9 yards per carry and finished with minus-48 rush yards over expected. His minus-0.41 RYOE per attempt ranked 46th among RBs with 90+ rushes.

The explosive-play profile proved especially thin. Pacheco had just one 15+ yard run last season (and that only went for 16 yards). That ranked 50th among RBs with 90+ carries. 

Injury History & Durability

Pacheco missed three games in 2025 after suffering an MCL sprain in his right knee. In 2024, Pacheco fractured his right fibula and missed 10 games.

Pacheco enters 2026 recovered from those injuries, but multiple right-leg injuries over the past two years remain a concern. That factor likely contributed to the RB having to settle for just $1.8 million on a one-year contract in his first foray into free agency.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Montgomery Role Is the Best-Case

Pacheco profiles as the No. 2 RB behind Gibbs. The problem: Gibbs is not just a lead back. He’s central to the Lions offense. Gibbs handled 320 total touches, scored 13 rushing TDs, caught 77 passes, and finished third among RBs in PPR points per game.

That was with David Montgomery playing all 17 games. 

Montgomery finished as RB31 in PPR points per game and RB27 in total fantasy points. That might be Pacheco’s ceiling this season if he just folds into the same role.

But the likelihood of Pacheco matching that production remains unlikely. His one-year, $1.81 million contract doesn’t show much value in him having as large a role. Plus, Montgomery himself lost work late in the season with only one game with double digit carries in the final eight of 2025. 

The most realistic projection is early-down relief work, some clock-killing carries, and occasional goal-line chances.

Strong Offense, Weak Opportunities

The supporting cast helps keep the Lions offense fantasy friendly.

Jared Goff threw for 4,564 yards and 34 TDs, keeping Detroit efficient. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 117 passes for 1,401 yards and 11 TDs. Jameson Williams topped 1,100 receiving yards. Sam LaPorta was efficient when healthy.

That passing-game talent keeps defenses honest and sustains scoring drives.

But that same supporting cast also limits Pacheco's touch opportunities. Detroit has better ways to move the ball. Pacheco will need to earn significant goal-=line work to unlock meaningful upside.

Petzing Lifts the Team, Not the RB2

New OC Drew Petzing is expected to call plays and could alter how the offense operates.

The offense already showed strength under previous play callers. The Lions ranked fifth in points in 2022, fifth again in 2023, first in 2024 under OC Ben Johnson. With OC John Morton and HC Dan Campbell calling plays, they ranked fifth in 2025. That consistency makes Goff easier to trust.

The pass-rate trend also moved in his favor last season. Detroit’s neutral pass rate fell slightly from 54.3% in 2022 to  53.4% in 2024 under Ben Johnson. It perked back up to 57.2% in 2025 under Morton and Campbell.

Now Petzing arrives after his most pass-heavy season. His pass rate over expected also climbed over his three years calling plays as the Cardinals HC:

Petzing’s Arizona offenses didn’t score very well, ranking 24th, 12th, and 23rd in his three seasons. But he inherits much more talent in Detroit.

Pacheco Needs Montgomery’s Role for Ceiling

Pacheco’s ceiling aligns with taking over the David Montgomery role directly.

But, the likelihood of Pacheco matching that production remains unlikely. His one-year, $1.81 million contract doesn’t show much value in him having as large a role. Plus, Montgomery himself lost work late in the season with only one game with double digit carries in the final eight of 2025. 

Ultimately, Pacheco's true ceiling would come with a Gibbs injury, which would push him into a full-time role, especially with the Lions lacking a viable No. 3 RB. Even in that case, he’d obviously fall well short of Gibbs’ upside in both receiving volume and general efficiency.

Pacheco Could be a Non-Factor

The biggest risk is Gibbs taking on an even bigger role.

Gibbs is better, more explosive, and far more valuable in the passing game. He ranked third among RBs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and PPR points per game. That leaves Pacheco fighting for lower-value touches.

Pacheco lacked efficiency in 2025 and isn’t likely to take touches from the incumbent

It is certainly possible Gibbs takes on even more snaps, leaving Pacheco as little more than a short-yardage backup. That would leave him with little to no fantasy production.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Draft Sharks Verdict

St. Brown remains one of fantasy football’s safest WR1 bets. He finished fourth in PPR points per game last season after finishing fifth in 2024 and third in 2023. That consistency makes him a safe first round PPR pick. He squarely belongs at his WR4 spring best ball ADP.

Customize St. Brown’s projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

2025 Role & Results

Another Top-Shelf Season

St. Brown delivered another elite fantasy season. He caught 117 balls for 1,401 yards and 11 TDs. He ranked third among WRs in total PPR points and fourth in points per game.

The weekly reliability proved strong as well. St. Brown posted seven top-12 finishes and 13 top-24 finishes across 17 games. He fell outside the top 24 just four times.

That’s exactly what fantasy managers pay for in the first round: high-end production with minimal dead weeks.

Still the Engine of Detroit’s Passing Game

St. Brown remained the clear leader among Detroit pass catchers.

His 172 targets ranked second in the league, and his 117 receptions ranked fourth. He also carried a 38.4% air yards share, fifth among WRs.

That air-yards number is important because Detroit was typically not a downfield passing offense. The Lions ranked 31st in team aDOT, and Jared Goff’s intended air yards sat at just 6.8 (35th among QBs). St. Brown commanded a huge piece of the passing game, though, working at every level.

And his use and production remained stable through a midseason coaching shift. OC John Morton called plays through Week 9, with St. Brown averaging:

• 9.0 targets
• 79.4 yards
• 2.70 yards per route

HC Dan Campbell took over from Week 10 on, and St. Brown’s averages didn’t change much:

• 10.0 targets
• 79.4 yards
• 2.70 yards per route

Third Straight Double-Digit TD Season

St. Brown’s efficiency backed up the volume.

He earned a 90.6 receiving grade, ranking third among WRs with 50+ targets. He also ranked 14th in yards per route run (2.48) among that 76-player group.

St. Brown ranked fifth among WRs in first downs and third in yards after catch. That fits perfectly with Detroit’s low-aDOT passing game.

His 11 TDs marked a third straight season with double-digit scores, and his offense obviously helps in that area. The Lions have finished four straight seasons among the top 5 in scoring. Goff tossed 29+ TD passes in each of those years. His 130 TD throws over that span not only leads the league but beats his nearest competitor (Josh Allen) by 13.

Lions Offense Remained Strong

Detroit gave St. Brown one of the best offensive environments in football.

The Lions ranked:

• fifth in total yards per game
• third in passing yards per game
• third in passing TDs per game
• fourth in yards per pass attempt
• eighth in EPA per play
• eighth in plays per game

That combination gives St. Brown both high floor and an enticing ceiling. And he rebounded from a 2024 target-share dip to post the best number of his career in that category.

St. Brown’s Target Shares broke down as follows:

For 2025, no other Lion topped 18% target share.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

This Target Tree Still Starts With Him

Expect St. Brown to remain Detroit’s clear No. 1 target.

Jameson Williams is a real threat for explosive weeks. Sam LaPorta will command targets when healthy. Gibbs is heavily involved in the passing game.

But St. Brown’s role has already survived all of that. He ranked second among WRs in targets and produced 19.06 PPR points per game in this same offense.

Goff’s Accuracy Keeps St. Brown on Schedule

The supporting cast is a strength.

Goff threw for 4,564 yards and 34 TDs while completing 68.0% of his passes. That fits St. Brown’s game perfectly. Goff is accurate, efficient, and comfortable working the short and intermediate areas.

Williams gives the offense a vertical threat after topping 1,100 receiving yards and averaging 17.2 yards per catch. That matters for St. Brown because Williams can stretch coverage and create space underneath.

LaPorta gives Detroit another efficient middle-of-the-field weapon. Gibbs adds an elite receiving RB element.

There is plenty of target competition here, but St. Brown still leads the group. That competition helps keep Detroit efficient and puts him in scoring position more often.

A Scheme Change Could Help

Detroit's 2025 offense was highly efficient without being overly aggressive. The Lions ranked 31st in aDOT and 24th in pass rate over expected, a style that fit St. Brown's game built on volume, timing, and yards after the catch.

Now new OC Drew Petzing arrives after his most pass-heavy season. His PROE also climbed over his three years calling plays as Cardinals OC:

Petzing’s Arizona offenses didn’t score very well, ranking 24th, 12th, and 23rd in his three seasons. But he inherits much more talent in Detroit.

We’ve seen St. Brown finish three straight seasons among the top 3 scorers at WR, with a slight boost to last year’s scoring in spite of two play-caller changes. If Petzing’s scheme increases the number of plays and/or the pass rate, that would likely only improve the environment for St. Brown.

Stay the Course for the Ceiling

There’s probably not a lot of upward mobility in St. Brown’s production, but there’s also little reason to believe his role will shift.

As long as the Lions keep the 26-year-old (until Oct. 24) among the league leaders in target share, St. Brown’s proven efficiency and the offense’s strength should keep his floor and ceiling high. If Detroit moves closer to Petzing’s 2025 pass rate while remaining top-5 in scoring, St. Brown could push for the overall WR1 spot.

Scheme Transition Presents Some Questions

The main risk for St. Brown is target competition. Williams has become a bigger part of the offense, LaPorta was highly efficient when healthy, and Gibbs plays a major receiving role. St. Brown has still produced despite this, but he could have more weeks at his floor if targets are spread around even more.

Any scheme transition brings some risk, even if Petzing's 2025 pass-rate profile looks good for St. Brown. 

Even with those risks, St. Brown’s volume, efficiency, QB stability, and offensive environment make him one of the safest WR1 picks in fantasy. 

Jameson Williams

Draft Sharks Verdict

Williams has clear WR2 upside. But Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and a healthy Sam LaPorta keep him from being a safe volume bet every week. His WR23 spring best ball ADP pushes a little too hard on those spike weeks. He is worth passing on at that price, but if he falls into the WR26-WR30 range, the upside becomes worth chasing.

Customize Williams’ projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

2025 Role & Results

WR Delivered Points, Just Not Consistently

Williams enjoyed a strong fantasy season in 2025. His final line was strong: 65 catches, 1,109 receiving yards, and 7 TDs. He ranked ninth in receiving yards and 11th in receiving TDs.

He totaled 219.1 PPR points, ranking 11th among WRs. On a per-game basis, he averaged 12.89 PPR points, ranking 21st.

That gap tells the story. Williams was valuable over the full season because he played 17 games and supplied spike weeks. But he was not yet a bankable weekly top-24 receiver.

Williams finished as a top-12 WR seven times and a top-24 WR nine times. But he also had eight games outside the top 24, with seven of those landing him outside the top 50.

The 30.0% Air-Yards Share Drives the Appeal

Williams ranked fifth among WRs in routes, sixth in pass plays, and sixth in wide snaps at 480, showing Detroit trusted him as a regular outside WR who could stretch the field.

The target volume was good, but not elite. Williams’ 102 targets ranked 26th among WRs. That’s solid usage but fell well behind Amon-Ra St. Brown’s team lead. Williams drew 17.0% of Detroit’s targets vs. 28.5% for St. Brown, which marked a career high.

Williams made his targets count. His 30.0% air yards share ranked 14th at the position, and Williams’ 12.5-yard average depth of target trailed only WR Isaac TeSlaa among Lions. His 17.2 yards per catch stood out, leading his nearest teammate by 2.3 and all others by at least 5.0. That makes Williams vital to a pass offense that mostly lives in the short to intermediate range otherwise.

That’s both the appeal and the concern. Williams does not need massive target volume to hit big weeks, but his role still depends more on splash plays than steady reception volume.

He also showed very different results when Sam LaPorta was playing:

With LaPorta (Weeks 1-9), Williams averaged 10.94 PPR points, 4.78 targets, and 52.67 yards per game.

Without LaPorta (Weeks 10-17), he jumped to 15.08 PPR points, 7.38 targets, and 79.38 yards per game.

That does not mean Williams needs LaPorta out to matter. But it does show how much his fantasy value depends on target availability. When the target tree thinned, Williams looked like a strong weekly starter.

Explosive Production, Real Hands Concern

Williams ranked ninth among WRs in yards, ninth in yards after catch, and 12th in first downs.  Jared Goff’s QB rating when targeting Williams was 125.7, which ranked 16th among WRs with 50+ targets.

Williams ranked sixth in yards after catch per reception and sixth in YAC over expected. That’s exactly what Detroit needs from him: vertical stress plus run-after-catch ability.

But the profile was not completely clean.

Williams had nine drops with a 12.2% drop rate. That was much worse than 2024 where he had a 3.3% drop rate. But, it was in line with Williams’ 2023 at 14.3%. On a team with reliable hands catchers like St. Brown and Gibbs, that could be a concern if his drop rate remains at the 2025 level.   

His 1.86 yards per route run ranked 43rd in the league and was a slight drop from his 1.97 in 2024. Both were an improvement of his 1.30 YPRR in 2023.   

Detroit Knows How to Use the Speedster

Detroit is a great place for Williams to chase that ceiling.

The Lions ranked fifth in total yards per game, third in passing yards per game, third in passing TDs per game, fourth in yards per pass attempt, and eighth in expected points added per play.

Goff also gives Williams a stable QB. He has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 29 TDs in each of the past four seasons. 

The interesting part is how Williams fits into Detroit’s passing structure. The Lions ranked 31st in average depth of target as a team last year. St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs all fit the short-to-intermediate, catch-and-run passing game.

Williams is the field stretcher. His 12.7-yard aDOT and 17.2 yards per catch give Detroit the explosive element the rest of the offense does not naturally provide.

Target shares broke down as follows:

No other player topped 5.5%. (*LaPorta’s share represents the nine games he played.)

Williams’ share basically matched his 2024 breakthrough

• 2022: 4.0%
• 2023: 9.3%
• 2024: 17.6%

That makes Williams important for the real-life offense. The fantasy question is whether he can improve his weekly scoring consistency.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Without LaPorta, the Starter Production Sharpened

Williams should remain Detroit’s No. 2 WR and primary downfield weapon.

The target competition is real, though. St. Brown remains the clear No. 1 after posting 117 catches, 1,401 yards, and 11 TDs. Gibbs caught 77 passes. LaPorta was highly efficient when healthy.

With LaPorta (Weeks 1-9), Williams averaged 10.94 PPR points, 4.78 targets, and 52.67 yards per game.

Without LaPorta (Weeks 10-17), he jumped to 15.08 PPR points, 7.38 targets, and 79.38 yards per game.

That provides some concern with LaPorta back in the lineup this year.

Strong Offense, but It’s Crowded

The supporting cast helps Williams in two ways.

First, Goff and Detroit’s offensive efficiency create plenty of scoring chances. The Lions ranked third in passing TDs per game, and Goff threw 34 TDs.

Second, St. Brown, Gibbs, and LaPorta force defenses to defend the middle of the field. That helps create space for Williams outside and downfield.

The downside is obvious: those same players also command targets.

Williams does not need to beat St. Brown in target share to be useful. He just needs to turn his full-time route role into a little more weekly volume.

Petzing Fits the Field Stretcher

Detroit’s 2025 offense was efficient but not overly aggressive. The Lions ranked 24th in PROE and 31st in aDOT, while still finishing top-5 in total yards, passing yards, passing TDs, and yards per pass attempt.

Williams’ downfield role plays an important part in balancing the passing plan. His 12.5 target air yards, 30.0% air yards share, and 17.2 yards per catch made him Detroit’s most explosive option.

Now new OC Drew Petzing arrives after his most pass-heavy season. His pass rate over expected also climbed over his three years calling plays as the Cardinals HC:

Petzing’s arrival is potentially good news for Williams. More plays and more passing would give him more chances to convert his route volume into targets.

More Downfield Passing Would Help

Williams’ ceiling path is clear.

He needs Petzing to push Detroit toward more passing volume downfield while maintaining the offense’s top-five scoring level. Goff ranked 27th among QBs with 300+ dropbacks with a 7.0 aDOT in 2025. He had the same aDOT in 2024 at 7.0, ranking 29th. The offense simply hasn’t pushed the ball downfield. 

Williams already ranked ninth in receiving yards and 11th in receiving TDs despite ranking just 26th in targets. His target share dropped slightly from 17.6% in 2024 to 17.0% in 2025. 

More downfield passing could help get that target number back up. If it does climb, he can move from volatile WR3 to weekly WR2.

That is the upside case: more target volume for an explosive full-time WR in an elite offense.

What If He’s Just the Fourth Guy?

St. Brown is Detroit’s clear target leader. Gibbs is heavily involved in the passing game. LaPorta’s return to full health could cut into the target spike Williams showed late last year. When the offense sits at full strength, Williams' floor lowers.

Williams is not as safe as St. Brown, but he is a full-time, explosive WR in a strong offense with a plausible path to more volume. That leaves him with more weekly volatility than any of Detroit's other main weapons.

Sam LaPorta

Draft Sharks Verdict

LaPorta is coming off a short but highly productive 2025 season. He played just nine games but finished sixth in PPR points per game. The case for 2026 is easy to like: LaPorta is an efficient receiving TE tied to Jared Goff and one of the league’s best passing offenses. His TE7 spring best ball ADP underrates LaPorta's upside based on last year's points per game. That makes him a value, especially if drafters have forgotten how productive he was early in 2025.   

Customize LaPorta’s projection for your exact league settings inside the Draft War Room.

2025 Role & Results

TE1 Production in a Half-Season

LaPorta was excellent when on the field last season.

He totaled 106.9 PPR points in nine games, averaging 11.88 per game. That ranked sixth among TEs in PPR points per game.

His receiving line was strong: 40 catches, 489 yards, and 3 TDs. 

The weekly production backed it up. LaPorta posted five top-10 TE finishes, with only two games outside the top 24.

The Targets Makes LaPorta a Strong Production Bet

LaPorta had a real receiving role, not just a touchdown-dependent TE profile.

He drew 49 targets in nine games, which works out to 5.4 per game. LaPorta averaged 5.44 targets, 54.3 yards, and 2.00 yards per route run across eight games.

LaPorta also ran a route on 85% of his pass plays. That ranked 27th among TEs with 40+ targets. 

LaPorta ranked second on the team in target share while active at 17.8%. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team by far at 29%, but LaPorta beat out Jameson Williams’ 15.6% target share. 

No Drops with Real TE1 Efficiency

LaPorta’s efficiency was excellent.

He caught 81.6% of his targets with a 17.8% target share (ranked 10th among TEs) and averaged 12.2 yards per catch, and produced 2.00 yards per route run. He also had zero drops.

LaPorta earned an 82.0 total-offense grade, fourth-best among TEs with 30+ targets, and an 83.2 receiving grade (seventh). Goff also posted a 134.2 QB rating when throwing to LaPorta (fifth highest among TEs with 40+ targets).

But there is some regression risk. An 81.6% catch rate and 134.2 targeted QB rating are difficult marks to repeat. 

The Low-aDOT Offense Still Has One Deep Threat

Detroit is one of the best environments for a fantasy TE.

Crowded target tree or not, this offense gives LaPorta enough efficient volume to stay in the TE1 mix.

The Lions ranked fifth in total yards per game, third in passing yards per game, third in passing TDs per game, fourth in yards per pass attempt, and eighth in EPA per play.

Goff also gives LaPorta a stable QB. He threw for 4,564 yards and 34 TDs while completing 68.0% of his passes. He has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 29 TDs in each of the past four seasons. That fits LaPorta’s game well because Detroit’s passing attack is built on timing, accuracy, and yards after the catch.

Target shares broke down as follows:

No other player topped 5.5%. (*LaPorta’s share represents the nine games he played.)

LaPorta’s number represents just the nine games he played, of course, and ranked 10th among TEs for the season. It also aligns with his previous shares.

LaPorta’s target share is in line with his career:

• 2023: 19.5%
• 2024: 15.3%

Jameson Williams also saw his target share increase while LaPorta was out. 

With LaPorta (Weeks 1-9), Williams averaged 10.94 PPR points, 4.78 targets, and 52.67 yards per game.

Without LaPorta (Weeks 10-17), he jumped to 15.08 PPR points, 7.38 targets, and 79.38 yards per game.

LaPorta Missed Nine Games

LaPorta missed the final nine games of the season with a fully herniated disc in his back. 

He is expected to be fully healthy for training camp and the start of the season.

2026 Opportunity & Projection

Williams’ Splits Show LaPorta Matters

LaPorta should remain one of Detroit’s primary passing-game options.

The role is valuable, but it is crowded. St. Brown is the clear No. 1 target after catching 117 passes for 1,401 yards and 11 TDs. Williams gives Detroit a dangerous field-stretching WR. Gibbs is one of the league’s best receiving backs.

That competition showed up in the splits.

With LaPorta active, Williams averaged 4.78 targets and 10.94 PPR points per game. Without LaPorta, Williams jumped to 7.38 targets and 15.08 PPR points per game.

LaPorta and Williams were fairly equal in target share through the first 10 weeks when both played (17.8% vs. 17.0%). That ticked up for LaPorta compared to 2024 where Williams led in target share (17.6% vs. 15.3%).

LaPorta’s target share continuing to climb in 2026 could be a path to continuing his fantasy production.  

Goff’s 6.8 Air Yards Work in LaPorta’s Favor

The supporting cast is a major strength.

Goff’s accuracy and low-aDOT profile fit LaPorta well. Detroit ranked 31st in team aDOT, and Goff’s intended air yards sat at 6.8. That favors players who can win quickly and create efficient completions.

St. Brown helps keep the offense on schedule. Williams stretches the field. Gibbs draws defensive attention underneath and out of the backfield.

That gives LaPorta room to work the seams and intermediate areas without needing to be the entire offense.

The downside is that Detroit has a lot of mouths to feed. LaPorta’s ceiling depends on whether Petzing raises the overall pass volume enough to support everyone.

Petzing Has Already Fed an Elite Fantasy TE

Detroit’s 2025 offense was excellent, but not especially aggressive. The Lions ranked 24th in PROE and 31st in aDOT while still finishing top-five in total yards, passing yards, passing TDs, and yards per pass attempt.

That style worked for LaPorta. He averaged 12.2 yards per catch and 2.00 yards per route run despite a 5.7-yard PFF aDOT.

Now new OC Drew Petzing arrives after his most pass-heavy season. His pass rate over expected also climbed over his three years calling plays as the Cardinals HC:

Under Petzing, TE Trey McBride ranked as follows in PPR points per game:

• 2023: TE10
• 2024: TE2
• 2025: TE1

Petzing does know how to utilize the TE position as a pass catcher. The situations are a bit different with the Cardinals lacking the true high-end receiving talent that the Lions have in St. Brown and Gibbs.

That is good news for LaPorta if the efficiency holds. More plays and more passes would help offset Detroit’s low TE target share.

Petzing’s Offense Leans on the TE

LaPorta’s ceiling path is a healthy season continuing his production from the first half of last year.

He already ranked sixth among TEs in PPR points per game while averaging just 5.4 targets per game, which ranked 14th among TEs. 

The offense is good enough to support that upside. Detroit ranked third in passing TDs per game in 2025 and have ranked near there in past years. They ranked fourth in 2024 and fifth in 2025.

If LaPorta’s target share continues to climb as it has over the past two seasons within the productive Lions’ offense, he has a path to being a consistent top-five fantasy TE.

Downfield Passing Could Hurt LaPorta

The risk for LaPorta lies in his loaded offense. Perhaps this year’s Lions decide to keep targeting Williams more like they did while LaPorta was out last year. Such a shift would likely hurt the TE’s volume.

Ultimately, LaPorta remains a strong TE1 bet with a fairly high floor. But his 2026 value depends on health, pass volume, and his specific role in the new offense.